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Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Other Applied Mathematics
Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov
Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov
CMC Senior Theses
Traditional beta estimates are constructed from historical stock‑and‑market returns and therefore adjust only as fast as realized data accrue. This thesis investigates whether the forward‑looking information embedded in equity‑option prices can enhance beta forecasts. Using near‑end‑of‑day quotes for 236 S&P 500 firms between 2007 and 2024, I extract risk‑neutral variance and skewness, construct five alternative beta estimators (historical, option‑implied, and three hybrids), and evaluate them against realized betas over six‑, twelve‑, and twenty‑four‑month windows. Rolling‑OLS beta remains the most accurate benchmark at short horizons, yet option‑implied moments add economically and statistically significant value when systematic exposure is expected to change …
Modeling The Stock Market Through Game Theory, Kylie Hannafey
Modeling The Stock Market Through Game Theory, Kylie Hannafey
Honors College Theses
Game Theory is used on many occasions to help us understand interactions between decision-makers. The famous Nash equilibrium is a steady state in a model that shows the interaction of different players, in which no player can do better by choosing a different action if the actions of the other players do not change. These two concepts can be applied to numerous situations that vary in types of players, but for our research, we are focusing on businesses in the stock market. The main objective is to use Game Theory to analyze data collected from the stock market, model our …
The Martingale Approach To Financial Mathematics, Jordan M. Rowley
The Martingale Approach To Financial Mathematics, Jordan M. Rowley
Master's Theses
In this thesis, we will develop the fundamental properties of financial mathematics, with a focus on establishing meaningful connections between martingale theory, stochastic calculus, and measure-theoretic probability. We first consider a simple binomial model in discrete time, and assume the impossibility of earning a riskless profit, known as arbitrage. Under this no-arbitrage assumption alone, we stumble upon a strange new probability measure Q, according to which every risky asset is expected to grow as though it were a bond. As it turns out, this measure Q also gives the arbitrage-free pricing formula for every asset on our market. In …
Applications Of Flow Network Models In Finance, Angel J. Woods
Applications Of Flow Network Models In Finance, Angel J. Woods
College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations
In this thesis we explore the applications of flow networks in practical problems in finance. After introducing basic definitions and background information, we first survey some known applications of flow networks in theoretical mathematics. We also briefly comment on their potential applications in the setting of financial flow networks. We then construct networks from practical financial flows and present the construction, reasoning, and known applications. Lastly, we show a design of financial flow networks that takes time into consideration and discuss its applications.
A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz
A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz
Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations
At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …
Black-Scholes Equation And Heat Equation, Charles D. Joyner
Black-Scholes Equation And Heat Equation, Charles D. Joyner
Honors College Theses
First, we present and define the Black-Scholes equation which is used to model assets on the stock market. After that, we derive the heat equation that describes how the temperature increases through a homogeneous material. Finally, we detail how the two equations are related. We introduce and relate the Black-Scholes equation and Heat Equation.