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Articles 1 - 16 of 16
Full-Text Articles in Other Applied Mathematics
A Probabilistic Modeling Analysis Of The Longitudinal Immune Response To Infection And Vaccination Across Demographic Groups And Pulmonary Symptoms, James O'Hanlon, Kaitlyn Sullivan, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Glenda Canderan, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Jeffrey M. Wilson, Rayanne A. Luke
A Probabilistic Modeling Analysis Of The Longitudinal Immune Response To Infection And Vaccination Across Demographic Groups And Pulmonary Symptoms, James O'Hanlon, Kaitlyn Sullivan, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Glenda Canderan, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Jeffrey M. Wilson, Rayanne A. Luke
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Antibody and cytokine kinetics describe the dynamic response to immune events such as infection and vaccination. These dynamics are not fully understood, and mathematical characterization may help explain variability across demographic groups and pulmonary symptoms post-acute infection. We fit time-dependent probability models to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) data to obtain distributions of longitudinal antibody response and cytokine values. To assess differences between groups, an overlap metric is applied to the modeled response curves. Our antibody models suggest significant differences between male and female populations and demonstrate deficient antibody responses of less-healthy groups such as smokers. Our cytokine …
Optimal Intervention Strategies In Age-Structured Sirvd Model: Epidemiological And Economic Analysis Of Covid-19 In Korea, Joon Chun, Melisa Hendrata
Optimal Intervention Strategies In Age-Structured Sirvd Model: Epidemiological And Economic Analysis Of Covid-19 In Korea, Joon Chun, Melisa Hendrata
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
This study employed an age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated-Deceased (SIRVD) model to design optimal COVID‑19 intervention strategies by integrating epidemiological dynamics with economic costs. Using empirical data from South Korea, we estimated transmission parameters and analyzed quarantine-based non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) alongside targeted vaccination scenarios. Our results indicated that a stronger form of mild NPI (upper range of Level I), when combined with targeted vaccination that prioritized seniors, achieved substantial reductions in infection peaks and overall economic burden. These findings underscore the effectiveness of age-specific strategies in epidemic management and offer critical insights for policymakers seeking balanced, resource-efficient approaches.
Inhomogeneous Branching Random Walks: Incorporating Genealogy And Density Effects, Lauren Ajax, Beatrice Durham, Pratima Hebbar, Cade Johnston, Jiayi Zhang
Inhomogeneous Branching Random Walks: Incorporating Genealogy And Density Effects, Lauren Ajax, Beatrice Durham, Pratima Hebbar, Cade Johnston, Jiayi Zhang
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
We introduce a novel framework using inhomogeneous branching random walks (BRWs) to model biological processes, specifically by introducing genealogy-dependence in branching rates and displacement distributions to model bacterial colony growth. Current stochastic models often either assume independent and identical behavior of individual agents or incorporate only spatiotemporal inhomogeneity, ignoring the effect of genealogy-based inhomogeneity on the long-time behavior of these processes. Such asymptotics are of independent mathematical interest and are crucial in understanding the emergence of patterns. We propose several inhomogeneous BRW models in 2D space where displacement distributions and branching rates vary with time, space, and genealogy. A combined …
Investigating Potential Alzheimer's Disease Therapies Through An Agent-Based Model Of Impaired Microglia Metabolismmodeling Impaired Microglia Metabolism, Cheyenne Ty, Abigail Penland, John Gerving, Martin Mendoza-Ceja, Megan Pratt, Kamila Larripa
Investigating Potential Alzheimer's Disease Therapies Through An Agent-Based Model Of Impaired Microglia Metabolismmodeling Impaired Microglia Metabolism, Cheyenne Ty, Abigail Penland, John Gerving, Martin Mendoza-Ceja, Megan Pratt, Kamila Larripa
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Alzheimer’s disease is the leading cause of dementia globally and is marked by amyloid-β plaque accumulation, decreased brain pH, disrupted metabolism, and increased permeability of the blood-brain barrier. Microglia, the resident immune cells of the central nervous system, are essential for maintaining brain homeostasis and are critically involved in the progression of AD. While microglia can initiate protective immune responses to injury and disease, dysregulated microglial metabolism may contribute to the exacerbation of Alzheimer's pathology. To investigate potential therapeutic strategies, we developed an agent-based model simulating the effects of exercise and metabolic enhancement on dysfunctional microglia. Our findings suggest that …
Using A Pharmacokinetic Model To Design And Evaluate An Early Ctdna Biomarker For Response To Targeted Therapy, Aaron Li
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Early prediction of response to therapy or lack thereof can help physicians plan treatment more efficiently. Biomarkers based on circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) are promising. However, biomarkers beyond direct comparison to baseline have not been thoroughly explored. We develop a model for ctDNA shedding under targeted therapy that incorporates pharmacokinetics. Using a simulated cohort of virtual patients with varied parameters, we define and analyze a biomarker based on ctDNA samples at baseline, 12 hours, and 24 hours after initiation of treatment. The biomarker identified patients who would achieve partial or complete response with high sensitivity and specificity and was able …
An Agent-Based Model Of Microglia And Neuron Interaction: Implications In Neurodegenerative Disease, Cheyenne Ty, Amanda Case, Emmanuel Mezzulo, Abigail Penland, Kamila Larripa
An Agent-Based Model Of Microglia And Neuron Interaction: Implications In Neurodegenerative Disease, Cheyenne Ty, Amanda Case, Emmanuel Mezzulo, Abigail Penland, Kamila Larripa
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Whether immune cells protect or harm the brain is an open question depending on context, and their role is implicated in multiple diseases such as Alzheimer's disease, dementia, and other neurological disorders. Microglia, a specific type of immune cell in the central nervous system, play a key role in homeostasis, and genes associated with an elevated risk of Alzheimer's disease correspond with deficiencies in their behavior. We created an agent-based model that incorporates inflammatory signaling, chemotaxis, and phagocytosis of damaged neurons and allows the exploration of crucial pathways in the maintenance of brain health. We specifically investigated pathways related to …
Impact Of Covid-19 On Disaggregate Consumption And Online Retail Sales: Evidence From The Usa, Gulzar Ahmed, Olcay Akman
Impact Of Covid-19 On Disaggregate Consumption And Online Retail Sales: Evidence From The Usa, Gulzar Ahmed, Olcay Akman
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
This study applies the difference-in-difference technique to analyze the consumption pattern during COVID-19 against pre-COVID-19 years. We analyze the online retail sales before and after COVID-19 using time series and linear regression models. Time series intervention analysis results suggest that COVID-19 has caused a statistically significant change in the mean level of online retail sales share in e-commerce. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find a 4% decrease in aggregate consumption from March to December 2020 compared to the benchmark period although statistically insignificant. Further, using a fixed effects model with time dummies, we find a nearly 8% significant decrease in …
Compartmental Modeling For The Neophyte: An Application Of Berkeley Madonna, Olcay Akman, Siddharth Bhumpelli, Cody Cline, Christopher Hay-Jahans
Compartmental Modeling For The Neophyte: An Application Of Berkeley Madonna, Olcay Akman, Siddharth Bhumpelli, Cody Cline, Christopher Hay-Jahans
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Compartmental modeling serves as a necessary framework in many fields, especially biomathematics and ecology. This article introduces readers to a user-friendly approach to constructing compartmental models and solving the resulting systems of differential equations to simulate real-world applications. The platform used is Berkeley Madonna, a software package that has an intuitive graphical interface which empowers users—even those with limited mathematical and programming backgrounds—to focus on modeling concepts rather than mathematical or programming intricacies. This makes Berkeley Madonna an ideal platform for students, educators, and researchers.
On Efficacy And Effectiveness Of Vaccines: A Mathematical Approach Based On Conditional Probability With Applications To The Covid-19 Context, Flavius Guias
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
This paper presents a mathematically formalized approach which points out the relation between efficacy and effectiveness of vaccines. The first term denotes the relative degree of protection in clinical trials or under ideal conditions, while the latter is based on observed real-life data. We define the efficacy by a similar formula to the effectiveness, but the probabilities involved in the relative risk are conditional with respect to the exposure to the virus. If exposure and vaccination status are independent, the two quantities are equal. Otherwise, the observed value of the effectiveness is a biased one, as it could be seen …
An Axiomatic And Contextual Review Of The Armitage And Doll Model Of Carcinogenesis, W. Zane Billings, Justin Clifton, Josh Hiller, Tommy Meek, Andrew Penland, Wesley Rogers, Gabriella Smokovich, Andrew Velasquez-Berroteran, Eleni Zamagias
An Axiomatic And Contextual Review Of The Armitage And Doll Model Of Carcinogenesis, W. Zane Billings, Justin Clifton, Josh Hiller, Tommy Meek, Andrew Penland, Wesley Rogers, Gabriella Smokovich, Andrew Velasquez-Berroteran, Eleni Zamagias
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
In 1954, Armitage and Doll published one of the most influential papers in the history of mathematical epidemiology. However, when one examines the literature one finds that there are in fact at least three distinct mathematical models attributed to the 1954 paper. In this study, we examine this important paper and the mathematical derivation of their model. We find, very surprisingly, that no stochastic process can account for all the assumptions of the model and that many of the models in the literature use a consistent subset of the assumptions used in Armitage and Doll's paper.
Empirical Fitting Of Periodically Repeating Environmental Data, Pavel Bělík, Andrew Hotchkiss, Brandon Perez, John Zobitz
Empirical Fitting Of Periodically Repeating Environmental Data, Pavel Bělík, Andrew Hotchkiss, Brandon Perez, John Zobitz
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
We extend and generalize an approach to conduct fitting models of periodically repeating data. Our method first detrends the data from a baseline function and then fits the data to a periodic (trigonometric, polynomial, or piecewise linear) function. The polynomial and piecewise linear functions are developed from assumptions of continuity and differentiability across each time period. We apply this approach to different datasets in the environmental sciences in addition to a synthetic dataset. Overall the polynomial and piecewise linear approaches developed here performed as good (or better) compared to the trigonometric approach when evaluated using statistical measures (R2 …
Kleptoparasitic Hawk-Dove Games, Isabella H. Evans-Riester, Chasity T. Kay, Karina L. Ortiz-Suarez, Jan Rychtář, Dewey Taylor
Kleptoparasitic Hawk-Dove Games, Isabella H. Evans-Riester, Chasity T. Kay, Karina L. Ortiz-Suarez, Jan Rychtář, Dewey Taylor
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The Hawk-Dove game is a classical game-theoretical model of potentially aggressive animal conflicts. In this paper, we apply game theory to a population of foraging animals that may engage in stealing food from one another. We assume that the population is composed of two types of individuals, Hawks and Doves. Hawks try to escalate encounters into aggressive contests while Doves engage in non-aggressive displays between themselves or concede to aggressive Hawks. The fitness of each type depends upon various natural parameters, such as food density, the mean handling time of a food item, as well as the mean times of …
A Demographic Model Of An Endangered Florida Native Bromeliad (Tillandsia Utriculata), Zoe S. Brookover, Alexandra M. Campbell, Brian D. Christman, Sydney L. Davis, Erin N. Bodine
A Demographic Model Of An Endangered Florida Native Bromeliad (Tillandsia Utriculata), Zoe S. Brookover, Alexandra M. Campbell, Brian D. Christman, Sydney L. Davis, Erin N. Bodine
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
The large, long-lived, epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia utriculata is currently listed as state-endangered in Florida due to significant population reduction from predation by an invasive weevil, Metamasius callizona. We have developed a novel demographic model of a population of T. utriculata in Myakka River State Park (MRSP) in Sarasota, Florida using a stage-structured matrix model. Analysis of the model revealed conditions for population viability over a variety of parameter scenarios. Model analysis showed that without weevil predation the minimum germination rate required for population viability is low (4–16%), and that given a viable population at structural equilibrium we would expect …
Analysis Of An Agent-Based Model For Predicting The Behavior Of Bighead Carp (Hypophthalmichthys Nobilis) Under The Influence Of Acoustic Deterrence, Craig Garzella, Joseph Gaudy, Karl R. B. Schmitt, Arezu Mansuri
Analysis Of An Agent-Based Model For Predicting The Behavior Of Bighead Carp (Hypophthalmichthys Nobilis) Under The Influence Of Acoustic Deterrence, Craig Garzella, Joseph Gaudy, Karl R. B. Schmitt, Arezu Mansuri
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are an invasive, voracious, highly fecund species threatening the ecological integrity of the Great Lakes. This agent-based model and analysis explore bighead carp behavior in response to acoustic deterrence in an effort to discover properties that increase likelihood of deterrence system failure. Results indicate the most significant (p < 0.05) influences on barrier failure are the quantity of detritus and plankton behind the barrier, total number of bighead carp successfully deterred by the barrier, and number of native fishes freely moving throughout the simulation. Quantity of resources behind the barrier influence bighead carp to penetrate when populations are resource deprived. When native fish populations are low, an accumulation of phytoplankton can occur, increasing the likelihood of an algal bloom occurrence. Findings of this simulation suggest successful implementation with proper maintenance of an acoustic deterrence system has potential of abating the threat of bighead carp on ecological integrity of the Great Lakes.
Parameter Sensitivity For In Vitro Anthrax Studies, Yareley Gonzalez, Maria Macias-Bedolla, Megan O. Powell
Parameter Sensitivity For In Vitro Anthrax Studies, Yareley Gonzalez, Maria Macias-Bedolla, Megan O. Powell
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Studies done on interactions between spores and macrophages done in vitro show inconsistent results based on experimental protocol and inhibit meaningful extrapolation to in vivo. In this study, we perform a sensitivity analysis of a model representing in vitro studies of interactions between anthrax spores and macrophages to help address the effects of these inconsistencies. We perform both local and global analyses using Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients. Our analysis indicates the amount of intracellular bacteria over time is most sensitive to the killing of intracellular bacteria by the macrophages and replication of the bacteria inside …
Modeling Aggregation Of Proliferating Microglia In Response To Amyloid-Beta In Dementia, Adrienne C. Kinney, Ellen R. Swanson
Modeling Aggregation Of Proliferating Microglia In Response To Amyloid-Beta In Dementia, Adrienne C. Kinney, Ellen R. Swanson
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Amyloid-beta plaques are prominent biological markers in dementia brains. In response to plaque formation, the brain's immune cells, microglia, become reactive. Microglia are measurable cells that surround amyloid-beta plaques, indicating their location. A system of partial differential equations describes the concentration of microglia in dementia brains by incorporating chemotactic signaling. However, this system fails to incorporate increasing numbers of reactive microglia cells in response to amyloid-beta aggregation. A system of ordinary differential equations describing the number of significant cells and proteins in the brain suggests the amount of reactive microglia increases significantly during the progression of dementia. We couple these …