Applied Mathematics Commons^™

Analyzing Fungal Growth Dynamics Under Different Environmental Conditions Using A Lotka–Volterra Competition System, Maria Ordonez, Fabrio Araujo

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Fungi play a critical role in ecosystems as decomposers that recycle nutrients and maintain environmental balance. Their populations are influenced by multiple environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, nutrient availability, and interactions with other organisms. In this project, the Lotka–Volterra model is used to analyze how competing fungal species interact and how these interactions influence population dynamics over time. By modeling two fungal populations competing for the same limited resources, the equations illustrate how environmental conditions and competition coefficients determine whether one species dominates; both species coexist, or one species becomes extinct. The model provides insight into how changes in …

Numerical Analysis Of The Sir Model For Predicting Disease Spread, Victoria Gaibor, Isabel Tejada, Kate Moore

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

This project, Numerical Solutions of the SIR Model for Predicting Disease Spread, investigates the application of numerical methods to analyze the dynamics of infectious diseases using the classical Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model. The SIR model, a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, is widely used to describe how diseases such as COVID-19 propagate through a population. The primary objective of this study is to solve the SIR initial value problem using multiple numerical techniques, including Euler’s method, Runge–Kutta methods, and multistep methods, and to compare their accuracy and efficiency. The model is implemented using given initial conditions and parameters, and additional …

Simulating Pacemakers And Heartbeat Recovery Through Mathematical Modeling, Thomas Estrada, Jayla Edwards

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Title: Simulating Pacemakers and Heartbeat Recovery Through Mathematical Modeling   This study utilizes the Fitzhugh-Nagumo model to simulate cardiac electrical activity and the regulatory role of pacemakers through ordinary differential equations (ODEs). By defining the rate of change for membrane voltage, 𝑑𝑣/dt, and a recovery variable, 𝑑𝑤/dt, the model captures the heart's excitability and resting states. Central to the analysis is the stimulus current parameter, which represents the "kick" provided by a pacemaker to correct flatline conditions or weak heartbeats. Using Euler’s method for numerical integration, the research compares unstable cardiac rhythms against corrected periodic oscillations. Additionally, the project implements vector …

Interpretable Case-Control Inference Through Log-Linear General Location Models, Zacharia Stuart

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This dissertation analyzes one of the few publicly available NFL injury datasets to study field type and non-contact lower-limb injuries. Field type is studied jointly with other risk factors to understand how these factors interact to affect injury risk. The data were gathered through a case-control sampling scheme, which limits direct inference on absolute injury probabilities. While not the most common approach for case-control data, this dissertation models the retrospective distribution directly through Log-Linear General Location Models (Log-Linear GLOMs). Through a log-linear structure placed on a log-odds-ratio reparameterization, the model provides directly interpretable marginal and interaction contributions to injury log-odds …

Cultural Traits May Replace Human Mobility Data In Forecasting Covid-19 Mortality: A Deep Learning Approach, Saif Abbas, Tamer Oraby, Michael G. Tyshenko, Samit Bhattacharyya

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to support public health decision-making. Most existing approaches depend heavily on human mobility data, while largely neglecting population behavior shaped by socio-cultural norms. In this study, we analyze daily COVID-19 mortality and Google mobility data from 72 countries during the first 130 d of the pandemic, a period characterized by high uncertainty and behavioral heterogeneity. In particular, we examine whether Hofstede’s country-level cultural dimensions can serve as latent behavioral forecasters of mortality in lieu of dynamic mobility indicators. Using 100 d for training and 30 d for forecasting, we employ …

Comparative Analysis Of Traditional And Deep Learning Time Series Architectures For Influenza A Infectious Disease Forecasting, Edmund Fosu Agyemang, Hansapani Rodrigo, Vincent Agbenyeavu

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Influenza A remains a major cause of respiratory mortality worldwide, motivating accurate forecasting to support timely preparedness and resource allocation. This study presents a comparative evaluation of two traditional seasonal time series baselines, ARIMA and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing (ETS), and six deep learning (DL) architectures (Simple RNN, LSTM, GRU, BiLSTM, BiGRU, and a Transformer) for forecasting monthly Influenza A case counts in the United States. Data from January 2009 to December 2023 were analyzed, using January 2009 to December 2022 for training and January 2023 to December 2023 for out-of-sample testing. Models were tuned using a validation split and assessed …

A Mathematical Model For Managing Diphtheria Outbreaks In Nigeria Via Vaccination, Enhanced Surveillance, Effective Quarantine, And Social Distancing Measures, Hycienth Ortser Orapine, Nyiutya Cephas Ine, Dekera Jacob Washachi, Ali Audu Baidu, Lubem Matthew Kwaghkor

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Diphtheria is a highly infectious respiratory and skin disease that poses a significant threat to global public health. In Nigeria, children and adults with low immunity remain at high risk due to recurring annual outbreaks in the last decade, with a death rate of as high as 68.8\%. This paper presents a deterministic compartmental model to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions implemented by the Nigerian government. The model's mathematical and epidemiological validity is established through proofs of non-negativity and boundedness. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is derived, and stability analysis confirms that the diphtheria-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically …

Stochastic Analysis Of Epidemic Size And Peak Infection In An Svir Model With Imperfect Vaccine And External Source Of Infection, María Gamboa Pérez

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

The dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak are studied under a stochastic framework in a closed population where individuals are homogeneously mixed. A vaccination program is implemented in the community prior to the start of the epidemic. The administered vaccine is imperfect, meaning that vaccinated individuals may still become infected upon contact with infected individuals. The mathematical Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered (SVIR) model describing the evolution of the epidemic is formulated as an absorbing, continuous-time, three-dimensional Markov chain with compartments for vaccinated, susceptible, infected and recovered individuals. The aim of this study is to characterize two fundamental epidemiological quantities: the maximum number of …

Tumor–Immune Dynamics With Memory And Time Delay: A Fractional-Order Model With Ctla-4 Regulation, Mutaz Mohammad, Mohyeedden Sweidan, Alexander Trounev, Fathalla Rihan

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This study develops a fractional-order tumor-immune interaction model incorporating Caputo memory effects, delayed immune activation, and CTLA-4 checkpoint regulation. The model describes the coupled dynamics of tumor cells, CD4$^{+}$ T cells, IFN-$\gamma$, and CTLA-4, and extends classical integer-order tumor-immune models by accounting for hereditary immune responses and biologically motivated latency effects. Theoretical properties, including positivity, boundedness, equilibrium structure, and fractional-order stability, are examined to establish the biological and mathematical consistency of the model. The delayed fractional system is then investigated computationally by comparing several numerical methods, including finite difference discretization, Daubechies wavelet collocation, Euler wavelet collocation, and a predictor-corrector scheme. …

Modeling The Impact Of Treatment During An Ongoing Tuberculosis Outbreak, Bach Le, Anna Robicheaux, Jude Shive, Alana Wells, Erin N. Bodine

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

In response to a significant tuberculosis outbreak in Wyandotte and Johnson Counties, Kansas, this study presents a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations to evaluate the impact of standard antibiotic treatment. The model incorporates latent, active, and treated disease states. Parameter values were informed by epidemiological data and uncertain parameter value ranges were explored systematically through uncertainty analysis using constrained Latin hypercube sampling. Cumulative infections and deaths, and the basic reproduction number, were computed over a five-year simulation period. Sensitivity analyses using partial rank correlation coefficients identified symptomatic treatment rate and transmission rate as primary drivers of cumulative infections and …

Predicting The Outcome Of Ischemic Hepatitis With Real-Patient Data Using Machine Learning Tools, Christiana Beard, Madison Utterback, Olcay Akman, Priya Kohli, William M. Lee, Aditi Ghosh

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Ischemic hepatitis (IH) results from shock-related conditions that impair oxygenated blood flow to the liver, causing hepatocyte death. Diagnosis relies largely on clinical history due to the absence of specific diagnostic tests and limited ability to predict outcomes. This study applies machine learning methods to real-world IH patient data to improve outcome prediction. Biomedical indicators analyzed include creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine transaminase (ALT), and bilirubin. Data were collected from multiple U.S. centers through the Acute Liver Failure Study Group (ALFSG), a multicenter network focused on this rare condition. We implemented logistic regression, regression tree methods …

Stochastic Invasion And Extinction In Environmentally Transmitted Diseases, Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Lauren M. Childs

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Dynamic Homeostasis In Relaxation And Bursting Oscillations, Christopher J. Ryzowicz

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling The Effects Of Chronic Stress On Type 2 Diabetes, Kris Mae Pasia

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Mechanistic Model Of Adhesion, Inflammation, Sleep, And Pain In Sickle Cell Patients, Milan Marsh, Rebecca Segal

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Logic-Based Differential Equation Model Of Endothelial Cell Function, Ella Froedge, Scarlett Hamilton, Mitchel Colebank

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Multiscale Computational Framework Coupling Pulmonary Arterial Blood Flow And Lung Tissue Perfusion, Nigar Sultana, Hangjie Ji, Mette Sofie Olufsen

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Phylogeny Informed Mathematical Model Of Hpai H5n1 Transmission And Control In Multi Host Systems, Oluwatosin Babasola

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Modeling Of The Combined Effects Of Thermal Burn And Local Irradiation, Quintessa Hay, Rachel Jennings, Amy Creel, Kyle Gaffney, Christina Wagner, Kidist Maxwell, Ginu Unnikrishnan, Tyler Dant

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Parameter Sensitivity, Identifiability, And Estimation For A Data-Driven Model Of Malaria, Katharine Gurski, Kathleen Hofman

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Mitigating Parameter Identifiability Issues Through Model Calibration On The Data-Informed Active Subspace: An Example In Tumor Growth, Allison L. Lewis, Rebecca A. Everett

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Stochastic Universal Differential Equations For Epidemiological Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification In Disease Transmission Dynamics, Alice Menaya Armah-Bonney

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Epidemic forecasting requires not only predictions of expected case counts, but also quantification of uncertainty, although existing surrogate modeling frameworks for agent-based models remain fundamentally deterministic. In this thesis a Stochastic Universal Differential Equation framework is presented that extends the deterministic Universal Differential Equation approach by incorporating a learnable stochastic diffusion term, enabling calibrated probabilistic forecasts while preserving the mechanistic interpretability and computational efficiency of the deterministic baseline. In doing so, a two-phase training algorithm is introduced to ensure stable convergence and the framework is validated against the ensemble output from ExaEpi, an exascale agent-based model of a COVID-19 outbreak …

Pattern Dynamics And Stochasticity Of Brain Rhythms And Spike Trains In A Tauopathy Mouse Model Of Alzheimer’S Disease, Clarissa M. Hoffman

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Systems neuroscience posits that every aspect of perceived physical reality, every aspect of animal and human behavior, and every cognitive phenomenon emerges from patterns of neuronal activity. While most researchers embrace this idea, there are major difficulties in describing and analyzing these complex neuronal dynamics—spike flows produced by cells ensembles, synchronized extracellular field oscillations, and other patterns—which limits our understanding of how the activity of individual neurons and the whole-animal cognition and behavior might be connected. In particular, we lack the approaches and even the semantics for connecting the individual cell outputs and the integrated results of their activity. Current …

Theory And Simulations Of Delayed Stochastic And Deterministic Models Of Prion Diseases, Gangadhara Boregowda, Omar Sharif, Daniel Gutierrez Iii, Allegra Simmons, Laurent Pujo-Menjouet, Tamer Oraby, Michael R. Lindstrom

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Neurodegenerative diseases (NDs), such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and prion diseases, are characterized by the dynamical spread of toxic proteins through the brain. In prion diseases, cellular prion protein (PrPC), produced by neurons, misfolds into a toxic form, known as scrapie prion protein (PrPSc). PrPSc induces neuronal stress which ultimately leads to cell death. In this paper, we develop mathematical models for the progression of prion diseases, incorporating a cellular defense mechanism that introduces a delay term affecting protein translation and a volatility term accounting for unaccounted biological factors influencing the system. We also extend the model to capture the spatial …

Analysis Of The Effects Of Magnetic Field, Heat Transfer, And Thermal Radiation On Blood Flow Through Bifurcated Artery To Enhance Tumor Treatments, Abdullahi Isah, Dauda Gulibur Yakubu, Ali Musa

Tanzania Journal of Science

The work presents the effects of some pertinent parameters on blood flow through bifurcated artery to enhance tumor treatments. Combining appropriately the basic equations, together with the fractionalized Maxwell fluid model allow us to determine the velocity, temperature and concentration of blood flow through bifurcated artery. The study adopted the Atangana-Baleanu fractional time derivative on fluid model to describe the non-Newtonian behavior of blood flow. The numerical simulations were performed using the combined Laplace transform and the method of undetermined coefficients and the results obtained with the aid of Mathcad software were simulated and presented graphically. From the graphical results, …

Patterns Of Multimorbidity Among Low-Income Adults Who Smoke With Implications For Tailored Interventions: A Cluster Analysis Using A Mixture Of Bernoulli Model, Monique T. Cano, Michael R. Lindstrom, Oscar F. Rojas Perez, Ricardo F. Muñoz

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Introduction: Smoking cigarettes remains a leading modifiable risk factor for preventable health conditions. In the United States, the health burden of smoking disproportionately impacts low-income individuals. Multimorbidity is common in this group, complicating treatment and worsening outcomes. Identifying multimorbidity clusters can support targeted, individualized interventions. This study aimed to identify multimorbidity clusters among individuals who smoke and experience economic hardship and provide clinical recommendations to enhance health outcomes.

Method: Individuals who smoke and experience economic hardship (N = 60) were recruited from the San Francisco Health Network (SFHN) and were assessed for physical and mental conditions. Cluster analysis was …

An Odd Protocol For An Agent-Based Model Of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission In A Homogeneous Syringe-Sharing Network, Seun Ale, Que Thi Nguyet Nguyen Dr., John D. Kelleher Prof., Elizabeth Hunter Dr.

Reports

The model described in this ODD is an agent-based model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). The model assumes homogeneous mixing among syringe-sharing agents, without any form of heterogeneity in the agents interactions or syringe-sharing attitude. All syringe-sharing PWID are treated as identical in terms of their interaction frequency and syringe-sharing probability. Interactions are generated dynamically using proximity-based sampling at each timestep (one day), allowing agents to form syringe-sharing interactions based on spatial closeness. The number of daily interaction events is fixed at the population level, and each syringe-sharing agent has the same probability …

An Odd Protocol For An Agent-Based Model Of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission With Inter- And Intra-Group Structural And Behavioural Heterogeneous Syringe-Sharing Networks (5), Seun Ale, Que Nguyen Dr., John D. Kelleher Prof., Elizabeth Hunter Dr.

Reports

The model described in this ODD is an agent-based model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). The model incorporates structural heterogeneity through a three-group interaction framework and behavioural heterogeneity through group-specific syringe-sharing rates with additional intra-group variability. The syringe-sharing population in the model is divided into core, inner, and outer circle groups representing individuals with high, moderate, and low levels of syringe-sharing interaction intensity, respectively. In addition to differences in the number of daily interaction opportunities across groups, agents in each group are assigned syringe-sharing probabilities that vary at the individual level around their …

An Odd Protocol For An Agent-Based Model Of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission In A Two-Group Structural Heterogeneous Syringe-Sharing Network (M2), Seun Ale, Que Nguyen Dr., John D. Kelleher Prof., Elizabeth Hunter Dr.

Reports

The model described in this ODD is an agent-based model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). The model extended a baseline homogeneous model by incorporating structural heterogeneity via a two-group interaction framework. The syringe-sharing population in the model is divided into inner and outer circle groups representing individuals with differing levels of syringe-sharing interaction intensity. While all agents share the same syringe-sharing probability and epidemiological processes remain identical across agents, the number of daily interaction opportunities differs between the two groups. Interactions in the model are generated dynamically using proximity-based sampling at each timestep …

An Odd Protocol For An Agent-Based Model Of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission In A Three-Group Structural Heterogeneous Syringe-Sharing Network (M3), Seun Ale, Que Nguyen Dr., John D. Kelleher Prof., Elizabeth Hunter Dr.

Reports

The model described in this ODD is an agent-based model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). The model incorporates structural heterogeneity through a three-group interaction framework. The syringe-sharing population in the model is divided into core, inner, and outer circle groups representing individuals with high, moderate, and low levels of syringe-sharing interaction intensity, respectively. While the syringe-sharing rate and all epidemiological processes remain identical across agents, the number of daily interaction opportunities differs by agent grouping, capturing variation in structural position within the syringe-sharing network. Interactions are generated dynamically using proximity-based sampling at each …