Applied Mathematics Commons^™

An Odd Protocol For An Agent-Based Model Of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission In A Homogeneous Syringe-Sharing Network, Seun Ale, Que Thi Nguyet Nguyen Dr., John D. Kelleher Prof., Elizabeth Hunter Dr.

Reports

The model described in this ODD is an agent-based model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). The model assumes homogeneous mixing among syringe-sharing agents, without any form of heterogeneity in the agents interactions or syringe-sharing attitude. All syringe-sharing PWID are treated as identical in terms of their interaction frequency and syringe-sharing probability. Interactions are generated dynamically using proximity-based sampling at each timestep (one day), allowing agents to form syringe-sharing interactions based on spatial closeness. The number of daily interaction events is fixed at the population level, and each syringe-sharing agent has the same probability …

An Odd Protocol For An Agent-Based Model Of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission With Inter-Group Structural And Behavioural Heterogeneous Syringe-Sharing Networks (M4), Seun Ale, Que Nguyen Dr., John D. Kelleher Prof., Elizabeth Hunter Dr.

Reports

The model described in this ODD is an agent-based model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). The model incorporates structural heterogeneity through a three-group interaction framework and behavioural heterogeneity through group-specific syringe-sharing rates. The syringe-sharing population in the model is divided into core, inner, and outer circle groups representing individuals with high, moderate, and low levels of syringe-sharing interaction intensity, respectively. In addition to differences in the number of daily interaction opportunities across groups, agents in each group are assigned distinct syringe-sharing probabilities, reflecting variation in risk-taking behaviour across structural groups within the syringe-sharing …

A Probabilistic Modeling Analysis Of The Longitudinal Immune Response To Infection And Vaccination Across Demographic Groups And Pulmonary Symptoms, James O'Hanlon, Kaitlyn Sullivan, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Glenda Canderan, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Jeffrey M. Wilson, Rayanne A. Luke

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Antibody and cytokine kinetics describe the dynamic response to immune events such as infection and vaccination. These dynamics are not fully understood, and mathematical characterization may help explain variability across demographic groups and pulmonary symptoms post-acute infection. We fit time-dependent probability models to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) data to obtain distributions of longitudinal antibody response and cytokine values. To assess differences between groups, an overlap metric is applied to the modeled response curves. Our antibody models suggest significant differences between male and female populations and demonstrate deficient antibody responses of less-healthy groups such as smokers. Our cytokine …

Optimal Intervention Strategies In Age-Structured Sirvd Model: Epidemiological And Economic Analysis Of Covid-19 In Korea, Joon Chun, Melisa Hendrata

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

This study employed an age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated-Deceased (SIRVD) model to design optimal COVID‑19 intervention strategies by integrating epidemiological dynamics with economic costs. Using empirical data from South Korea, we estimated transmission parameters and analyzed quarantine-based non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) alongside targeted vaccination scenarios. Our results indicated that a stronger form of mild NPI (upper range of Level I), when combined with targeted vaccination that prioritized seniors, achieved substantial reductions in infection peaks and overall economic burden. These findings underscore the effectiveness of age-specific strategies in epidemic management and offer critical insights for policymakers seeking balanced, resource-efficient approaches.

Comparative Machine Learning Models For Disease Risk Prediction, Mercy Mawusi Agbley

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

Accurate prediction of disease outcomes is crucial for improving clinical decision-making and enabling early intervention. This study compares the performance of various statistical and machine learning models for clinical risk prediction using two healthcare datasets: diabetic retinopathy and heart disease. The models assessed include Logistic Regression, LASSO, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Neural Networks, Random Forests, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), and a stacked ensemble model. Prior to modeling, datasets were split into train and test sets. Standardization was applied to numeric features whilst categorical features were one-hot encoded. These transformations were later applied to the test set. Principal …

A Bayesian Late-Fusion Supportability Framework For Rare-Disease Severity Prediction In Glut1 Deficiency Syndrome, Jordan M. Rodriguez

Mathematics Dissertations

Glucose transporter type 1 deficiency syndrome (GLUT1-DS) is a rare neurometabolic disorder with heterogeneous neurological and developmental severity. Because patient-level severity is not observed as a single validated outcome, this dissertation develops a Bayesian late-fusion supportability framework for constructing and predicting an ordered latent severity phenotype from clinical, genetic, and EEG-derived evidence. The primary target was constructed in a larger clinical cohort using age-5 symptom burden and learning cognition, then assigned to an aligned multimodal prediction cohort. Target-defining variables were excluded from supervised predictors, and models were evaluated using patient-exclusive cross-validation with training-fold preprocessing and fold-wise EEG PCA.

The primary …

Managing Multi-Drug Resistance: An Evolutionary Game Theory And Optimal Control Approach, Shukhrat Nasrulloev

Theses and Dissertations

Multi-drug resistance is an evolutionary process in which treatment eliminates sensitive cells, allowing resistant clones to dominate. This thesis investigates this process using a framework integrating population dynamics, evolutionary game theory, and optimal control theory. We develop a two-population logistic growth model describing competition between drug-sensitive and drug-resistant cells under treatment, construct dose-dependent payoff matrices and replicator dynamics to characterize evolutionary competition, and derive a critical drug level D_crit = (r_S - rR)/(dS - d_R) at which resistant cells gain a fitness advantage. An optimal control problem is formulated via Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to identify schedules …

Microgravity-Induced Alterations In Left Atrial Hemodynamics And Thrombogenic Risk: Insights From Healthy And Atrial Fibrillation Models, Grace M. Hoeppner

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Background: Microgravity exposure alters cardiovascular loading, yet its impact on left atrial flow dynamics and thrombotic risk remains poorly understood. This study investigates how spaceflight-relevant microgravity-induced changes in cardiac outflow affect left atrial hemodynamics in healthy individuals and patients with atrial fibrillation.

Methods: Patient-specific left atrial models were generated for three healthy individuals and three AF patients. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed using each patient’s baseline mitral outflow waveform and two modified waveforms representing short- and long-duration post-flight cardiac loading changes derived from echocardiographic observations. Hemodynamic metrics included left atrial velocity, time averaged wall shear stress, oscillatory shear …

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Hiv Transmission Incorporating The Effects Of Treatment And Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis: Sensitivity Analysis And Numerical Simulations, Erick Manuel Delgado Moya

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to be a public health problem in many countries of the world, and Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a preventive method for HIV, which has shown great efficacy and is in use worldwide. This work presents a new mathematical model for HIV transmission incorporating PrEP use and evaluates the impact of PrEP along with its increasing use in a population. The construction of the model takes into account three forms of diagnosis: diagnosis of individuals in risky sexual contact, diagnosis after risky contact (diagnosis in the undiagnosed infected compartment), and diagnosis associated with attempting to enter …

Analysis And Numerical Investigation Of A Breast Cancer Treatment Model Incorporating Ketogenic Diet And Immune Boosters Via Optimal Control Theory, Kunnisai Muniroh, Ummu Habibah, Wuryansari Muharini Kusumawinahyu, Nur’Izzati Hamdan

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This paper develops a mathematical model to investigate breast cancer dynamics by incorporating tumor–immune interactions, ketogenic diet effects, and medical treatment. The model is formulated as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and analyzed within an optimal control framework. Time-dependent control variables are introduced to represent treatment strategies aimed at minimizing tumor progression while reducing therapeutic costs. The model’s well-posedness is established through positivity and boundedness analysis. The necessary conditions for optimality are derived using Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle, resulting in a coupled system of state and adjoint equations. Numerical solutions are obtained using the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method combined with …

Mathematical Analysis And Numerical Simulation Of A Fractional-Order Sir-Si Model For Malaria Transmission Dynamics, Gassan A. M. O. Farah, Abdulaziz Y. A. Mukhtar, Kailash C. Patidar

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This study investigates the complex transmission dynamics of malaria, a critical global health challenge, with a focus on the African continent. We introduce a novel approach that employs Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs) to advance the understanding of malaria spread and control. Specifically, we develop a new SIR-SI model using the Caputo fractional operator, which captures the memory effects and time-delay characteristics inherent in real-world epidemiological systems. A detailed analysis of the model's solvability and uniqueness is conducted using fixed-point theory. To obtain an analytical solution, the system is solved via the Laplace transform method, with solutions expressed in closed form …

Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Networks For Spread Prediction, Petr Kisselev

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Delayed Adaptive Behavior Modulates Waves In Epidemic Models, Md Shahriar Mahmud, Solomon Eshun, Claus Kadelka, Baltazar Espinoza

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Metapopulation Model To Evaluate C.Difficile Potential Vaccine Interventions., Archana Neupane Timsina

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Oropouche Virus Transmission Dynamics, Darsh Gandhi, Carli Peterson, Emma Slack, Elizabeth Rubio, Amira Claxton, Christopher M. Kribs

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Probabilistic Modeling Of Antibody Kinetics Post Infection And Vaccination, Rayanne Luke, Prajakta Bedekar, Anthony J. Kearsley

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

[Project Insight] [Foag] Data-Driven Machine Learning Approaches To Modeling Pertussis Vaccine Scare Behavior, Gleb Gribovskii

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Mentoring First-Year Stem Students Through Collaborative Research In The Haynes Scholars Program, Alex Capaldi, Laura Tipton

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

[Lele] Measles And Mandates– What Will Happen If Florida Repeals The Mmr Vaccine Mandate?, Alice Oveson, Abba Gumel

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

[Lele] Incorporating Physiological Constraints In Estimates Of Post-Prandial Insulin Secretion Rate, Justin K. Garrish, Christine L. Chan, Douglas Nychka, Cecilia Diniz Behn

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Heterogeneity In Malaria: A Pk-Pd Immuno-Epidemiology Model With Non-Exponential Waiting Times, Katharine Gurski

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Modeling Sickle Cell Disease Using A Sleep-Pain-Inflammation Cycle, Milan Marsh

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Parameter Estimation And Simulation In Pollution-Induced Asthma Disease Model Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks, Aadi Gannavaram

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Survival Analysis Of Breast Cancer Patients In Texas Using Classical And Machine Learning Methods, Sidketa Fofana, Tamer Oraby, Salique H. Shaham, Everardo Cobos, Manish K. Tripathi

School of Medicine Publications

Background

Breast cancer is considered one of the most common cancers in women worldwide. In this study, we used an 11-year cohort of malignant breast cancer survival data in Texas to investigate the factors that might explain why some breast cancer patients live longer than others.

Methods

We performed standard survival analyses, including generating Kaplan‒Meier survival curves, using the log-rank test, and applying Cox proportional hazards regression to identify the unique features of breast cancer patients and determine the main factors influencing long-term survival. We also conducted a Random Survival Forest analysis for classification and prediction. Finally, we used Mahalanobis …

Modeling, Analysis, And Prediction Of Covid-19 Dynamics With Interacting Subpopulations And Implicit Behavior Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks, Naima Aubry-Romero, Alonso Ogueda-Oliva, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

In this paper, we consider an extended SEIR compartmental model that incorporates young and old interacting subpopulations, allowing for cross-group transmission dynamics. Implicit behavioral changes are included to determine the influence of social behavior on coronavirus transmission dynamics. The basic reproduction number, the average number of secondary cases of infection produced by a single primary case, is derived for both the explicit and implicit model using the next-generation matrix method. We solve the associated differential equation systems and estimate useful parameters in the explicit model using physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). Our results point to how the PINNs approach offers an …

A Modified Sir Model Used To Investigate The Relationship Between Congenital And Adult Syphilis, Kaleesta R. Waysman

Honors Thesis

A complex SIR model integrating the relationship between adult and congenital syphilis was developed. The goal of the project was to determine the specific population(s) or control strategies that should be enforced, altered, or removed to decrease the number of children experiencing clinical sequelae due to congenital syphilis. Early clinical sequelae include hydrops fetalis, preterm birth, central nervous system infection, hepatosplenomegaly, hyperbilirubinemia, cholestasis, hemolytic anemia, snuffles, osteochondritis, and lesions or rashes in the palms and soles. Late clinical sequelae include interstitial keratitis, hearing loss, Hutchinson teeth, saber shins, Clutton joints, mulberry molars, and saddle nose. After implementing real-world data into …

Using A Pharmacokinetic Model To Design And Evaluate An Early Ctdna Biomarker For Response To Targeted Therapy, Aaron Li

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Early prediction of response to therapy or lack thereof can help physicians plan treatment more efficiently. Biomarkers based on circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) are promising. However, biomarkers beyond direct comparison to baseline have not been thoroughly explored. We develop a model for ctDNA shedding under targeted therapy that incorporates pharmacokinetics. Using a simulated cohort of virtual patients with varied parameters, we define and analyze a biomarker based on ctDNA samples at baseline, 12 hours, and 24 hours after initiation of treatment. The biomarker identified patients who would achieve partial or complete response with high sensitivity and specificity and was able …

Implementing And Evaluating An Ai-Powered Visual Decision Support System To Improve Antibiotic Usage Among Physicians With A Built-In Early Warning System, Akua Sekyiwaa Osei-Nkwantabisa

Theses and Dissertations

The widespread misuse and excessive prescription of antibiotics have played a pivotal role in the emergence and proliferation of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, posing a critical global public health crisis. Addressing this challenge necessitates innovative solutions that enhance antimicrobial stewardship. This study presents the development and implementation of a visual decision support system designed to monitor and optimize antibiotic usage among healthcare providers. The proposed system integrates advanced machine learning algorithms with real-time data analytics to provide a dynamic, evidence-based decision support tool. Specifically, a neural network model was developed after evaluating multiple machine learning approaches, including Random Forest, Logistic Regression and …

Irreversible K-Threshold Number Ck(G) And Saturation Probability P[G] For Corona Product And Double Corona Product Graphs, Eric J. Moon, Soumya Bhoumik, Paul Flesher

SACAD: Scholarly Activities

We discuss the Irreversible k-conversion process for graphs, where a vertex becomes saturated and remains saturated indefinitely if at least k of its neighbors are saturated. We investigate sets S₀, which when initially saturated, lead to complete graph saturation. We are interested in the minimum |S₀| = C_k(G), called the k-threshold number. We consider the construction of the Corona Product Graphs (of C_n and K_p). Additionally, we extend our analysis by defining and exploring Double Corona Product Graphs (of C_n and K_p). Then we incorporate …

Analysis Of Systematic Trade-Offs Between Military And Healthcare Expenditure Alongside Gdp Growth Of Select Asian And Western Exporting Economies In The 21st Century, Rahul Balamurugan, Carlos Gershenson, Preethi Nanjundan, Hiroki Sayama

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study explores the complexity in the trade-offs between military expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and GDP growth across select Asian nations and major weapon-exporting countries, examining how nations allocate finite resources between national security and human well-being over the past two decades. Using a systems science approach, the research integrates Granger causality testing to analyze temporal and directional relationships among GDP growth, military expenditure, and healthcare expenditure, uncovering their dynamic interdependencies. The methodology includes trend and slope analysis, Granger causality testing, outlier detection, and clustering to identify heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies. Developed, weapon-exporting nations exhibit complementary trends, with strong causality …