Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

A Spatio-Temporal Comparison Of Avian Migration Phenology Using Citizen Science Data, Ali Arab, Jason R. Courter, Jessica Zelt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The effects of climate change have wide-ranging impacts on wildlife species and recent studies indicate that birds’ spring arrival dates are advancing in response to changes in global climates. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach for comparing avian first arrival data for multiple species. As an example, we analyze spring arrival data for two long-distance migrants (Rubythroated Hummingbird Archilochus colubris; and Purple Martin Progne subis) in eastern North America from 2001–2010 using Citizen Science data. The proposed approach provides researchers with a tool to compare mean arrival dates while accounting for spatial and temporal variability. Our results show …

Assessing Drought Vulnerability Using A Socioecological Framework, Joel R. Brown, Doug Kluck, Chad Mcnutt, Michael J. Hayes

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a persistent problem on rangelands and adjusting management to respond appropriately is critical to both preserving natural resources and to maintaining financial viability. • We explore the value of using a structured assessment approach to determining both social and ecological vulnerability. • This approach allows for the identification of vulnerable ecosystems and business operations at regional and local scales as a basis for developing effective policies and programs.

Potential Direct And Indirect Effects Of Climate Change On A Shallow Natural Lake Fish Assemblage, Jason J. Breeggemann, Mark A. Kaemingk, Timothy J. Debates, Craig P. Paukert, Jacob R. Krause, Alexander P. Letvin, Tanner M. Stevens, David W. Willis, Steven R. Chipps

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, …

Estimating Carbon Storage In Windbreak Trees On U.S. Agricultural Lands, W. B. Possu, James R. Brandle, G. M. Domke, M. Schoeneberger, Erin E. Blankenship

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Assessing carbon (C) capture and storage potential by the agroforestry practice of windbreaks has been limited. This is due, in part, to a lack of suitable data and associated models for estimating tree biomass and C for species growing under more opengrown conditions such as windbreaks in the Central Plains region of the United States (U.S.). We evaluated 15 allometric models using destructively sampled Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) data from field windbreaks in Nebraska and Montana. Several goodness-of-fit metrics were used to select the optimal model. The Jenkins’ et al. model was then used to estimate biomass for …

Body Size Distributions Signal A Regime Shift In A Lake Ecosystem, Trisha L. Spanbauer, Craig R. Allen, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Kirsty L. Nash, Jeffery R. Stone, Craig A. Stow, Shana M. Sundstrom

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of …

A Spatio-Temporal Comparison Of Avian Migration Phenology Using Citizen Science Data, Ali Arab, Jason R. Courter, Jessica Zelt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The effects of climate change have wide-ranging impacts on wildlife species and recent studies indicate that birds’ spring arrival dates are advancing in response to changes in global climates. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach for comparing avian first arrival data for multiple species. As an example, we analyze spring arrival data for two long-distance migrants (Rubythroated Hummingbird Archilochus colubris; and Purple Martin Progne subis) in eastern North America from 2001–2010 using Citizen Science data. The proposed approach provides researchers with a tool to compare mean arrival dates while accounting for spatial and temporal variability. Our results show …

Global Warming And Population Responses Among Great Plains Birds, Paul A. Johnsgard

Zea E-Books Collection

Based on an analysis of 47 years (1967–2014) of Audubon Christmas Bird Counts (CBC), evidence for population changes and shifts in early winter (late December) ranges of nearly 150 species of birds in the Great Plains states is summarized, a region defined as including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. The rationale for this study had its origins in Terry Root’s 1988 Atlas of North American Wintering Birds. Root’s landmark study provided a baseline for evaluating the nationwide winter distributions of 253 North American birds in the mid-20th century, using data from the National Audubon Society’s …

Regional Scale Cropland Carbon Budgets: Evaluating A Geospatial Agricultural Modeling System Using Inventory Data, Xuesong Zhang, Roberto C. Izaurralde, David H. Manowitz, Ritvik Sahajpal, Tristram O. West, Allison M. Thomson, Min Xu, Kaiguang Zhao, Stephen D. Leduc, Jimmy R. Williams

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Staff Publications

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatiallyexplicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems …

How Climate Change Has Affected The Spatio-Temporal Patterns Of Precipitation And Temperature At Various Time Scales In North Korea, Won-Ho Nam, Eun-Mi Hong, Guillermo A. Baigorria

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Detecting changes in the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation is a prerequisite for developing effective adaptation options and strategies for the future. An effective method for assessing climate change and for providing information to decision makers and stakeholders is needed to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The objective of this study was to determine whether climate change has caused spatio-temporal changes in meteorological elements in North Korea. We delineated the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation caused by climate change in specific time periods based on statistically significant differences using a statistically robust method. Historical weather data from 27 meteorological …

A Historical Perspective On Nebraska’S Variable And Changing Climate, Martha Shulski, William Baule, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Nebraska is situated at the intersection of the northern and southern Great Plains, exhibiting a dramatic longitudinal gradient for precipitation and humidity, and benefiting from groundwater resources. The continental climate is highly variable temporally both for temperature and precipitation. Our assessment of long-term meteorological observations shows that over the last century the annual average temperature in Nebraska has warmed approximately 0.6°C, which is similar to the increase in the global average temperature over the same time period. Furthermore, we found minimum temperatures have warmed more than maximum temperatures, and winter and spring show the strongest warming. We found no significant …

A Bird’S- Eye View Of The Usa National Phenology Network: An Off-The-Shelf Monitoring Program, Jherime Kellerman, Caroline A. F. Enquist, Diana L. Humple, Nathaniel E. Seavy, Alyssa Rosemartin, Renée L. Cormier, Lorianne Barnett

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Phenology is central to the biology and ecology of organisms and highly sensitive to climate. Differential responses to climate change are impacting phenological synchrony of inter- acting species, which has been implicated in the decline of migratory birds that rely on seasonal resources. However, few studies explicitly measure phenology of seasonal habitat resources on the breeding and wintering grounds and at stopover sites. While avian monitoring methods are widely standardized, methods of monitoring resource phenology can be highly variable and difficult to integrate. The USA National Phenology Network (USA- NPN) has developed standardized plant and animal phenology protocols and a …

On Underestimation Of Global Vulnerability To Tree Mortality And Forest Die-Off From Hotter Drought In The Anthropocene, Craig D. Allen, David D. Breshears, Nate G. Mcdowell

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—‘‘hotter drought’’, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases …

Vadose Zone Lag Time And Potential 21st Century Climate Change Effects On Spatially Distributed Groundwater Recharge In The Semi-Arid Nebraska Sand Hills, N. R. Rossman, Vitaly A. Zlotnik, Clinton Rowe, Jozsef Szilagyi

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

Deep drainage of water below plant root zones (potential groundwater recharge) will become groundwater recharge (GR) after a delay (or lag time) in which soil moisture traverses the vadose zone before reaching the water table. Depending on the thickness of the vadose zone, the magnitude of deep drainage, and soil hydraulic properties, lag times will vary broadly, exceeding decades to centuries in semi-arid and arid environments. Yet, studies of future climate change impacts to GR have typically avoided focusing on impacts beyond 100 years and often neglect to consider lag effects caused by the vadose zone. We investigate the effects …

The Hard Winter Of 1880-1881: Climatological Context And Communication Via A Laura Ingalls Wilder Narrative, Barbara Boustead

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Hard Winter of 1880-1881 was featured in the Laura Ingalls Wilder historical fiction account, The Long Winter, as well as in several town histories across the region. Both meteorological records and historical accounts indicate that the winter was particularly long, snowy, and cold. The question of how “hard” a winter is for a given location depends on the climatological context, which relies on an objective characterization of winter severity. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) allows comparison of the winter of 1880-1881 among sites across the region, as well as in the context of the period of …

Ecotypes Of An Ecologically Dominant Prairie Grass (Andropogon Gerardii) Exhibit Genetic Divergence Across The U.S. Midwest Grasslands’ Environmental Gradient, Miranda M. Grey, Paul St. Amand, Nora M. Bello, Matthew B. Galliart, Mary Knapp, Karen A. Garrett, Theodore J. Morgan, Sarah G. Baer, Brian R. Maricle, Eduard D. Akhunov, Loretta C. Johnson

United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service / University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Faculty Publications

Big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) is an ecologically dominant grass with wide distribution across the environmental gradient of U.S. Midwest grasslands. This system offers an ideal natural laboratory to study population divergence and adaptation in spatially varying climates.

Objectives were to: (i) characterize neutral genetic diversity and structure within and among three regional ecotypes derived from 11 prairies across the U.S. Midwest environmental gradient, (ii) distinguish between the relative roles of isolation by distance (IBD) vs. isolation by environment (IBE) on ecotype divergence, (iii) identify outlier loci under selection and (iv) assess the association between outlier loci and climate.

Using two …

Carbon–Temperature–Water Change Analysis For Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype For The Agmip Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3mp), Alex Ruane, Sonali Mcdermid, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Guillermo Baigorria, James W. Jones, Consuelo Romero, L. Dewayne Cecil

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for …

On Target For People And Planet: Setting And Achieving Water-Related Sustainable Development Goals, Julie Van Der Bliek, Peter G. Mccornick, James Clarke

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Our specific focus in this book is on securing water for sustainable food production. This links to sustainable water resources management, delivering on the water supply and sanitation requirements and provisioning water for energy and the urban sector. A specific intent is to ensure that the realities in low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia are recognized and to provide practical pathways to change that fit these realities and the aspirations of those countries. This will help to prepare for the next step in the SDG [sustainable development goals] process: devolving the SDGs to the national level. It will …

Changing Forest Water Yields In Response To Climate Warming: Results From Long-Term Experimental Watershed Sites Across North America, Irena F. Creed, Adam T. Spargo, Julia A. Jones, Jim M. Buttle, Mary B. Adams, Fred D. Beall, Eric G. Booth, John L. Campbell, Dave Clow, Kelly Elder, Mark B. Green, Nancy B. Grimm, Chelcy Miniat, Patricia Ramlal, Amartya Saha, Stephen Sebestyen, Dave Spittlehouse, Shannon Sterling, Mark W. Williams, Rita Wrinkler, Huaxia Yao

USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment’s change in actual ET divided by P …

Finding Them Before They Find Us: Informatics, Parasites, And Environments In Accelerating Climate Change, Daniel R. Brooks, Eric P. Hoberg, Walter A. Boeger, Scott Lyell Gardner, Kurt E. Galbreath, David Herczeg, Hugo H. Mejía-Madrid, S. Elizabeth Rácz, Altangerel Tsogtsaikhan Dursahinhan

Harold W. Manter Laboratory of Parasitology: Faculty and Staff Publications

Parasites are agents of disease in humans, livestock, crops, and wildlife and are powerful representations of the ecological and historical context of the diseases they cause. Recognizing a nexus of professional opportunities and global public need, we gathered at the Cedar Point Biological Station of the University of Nebraska in September 2012 to formulate a cooperative and broad platform for providing essential information about the evolution, ecology, and epidemiology of parasites across host groups, parasite groups, geographical regions, and ecosystem types. A general protocol, documentation–assessment–monitoring–action (DAMA), suggests an integrated proposal to build a proactive capacity to understand, anticipate, and respond …

Modeling Vulnerability Of Groundwater To Pollution Under Future Scenarios Of Climate Change And Biofuels-Related Land Use Change: A Case Study In North Dakota, Usa, Ruopu Li, James W. Merchant

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality.Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use condi- tions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions thatmay change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic condi- tions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with …

Modeling The Production Of Multiple Ecosystem Services From Agricultural And Forest Landscapes In Rhode Island, Tingting Liu, Nathaniel H. Merrill, Arthur J. Gold, Dorothy Q. Kellogg, Emi Uchida

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Assessing Migration Of Ruby-Throated Hummingbirds (Archilochus Colubris) At Broad Spatial And Temporal Scales Evaluación De La Migración De Archilochus Colubris A Escalas Amplias De Tiempo Y Espacio, Jason Courter, Ron J. Johnson, William C. Bridges Jr., Kenneth Hubbard

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Phenological patterns in birds appear to be temperature-dependent in part, and global temperatures are undergoing change. Many studies of bird phenology are conducted at broad temporal but local spatial scales, making it difficult to assess how temperature affects bird migration across landscapes. Recently, networks of “citizen science” volunteers have emerged whose collective efforts may improve phenology studies as biases associated with such efforts are recognized and addressed. We compared mean Rubythroated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) first arrival dates from Journey North (2001-2010) with data from the North American Bird Phenology Program (1880-1969). Ruby-throated Hummingbirds arrived earlier in the more recent period …

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison And Improvement Project (Agmip): Protocols And Pilot Studies, Cynthia Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, Alex Ruane, K. J. Thornburn, J. M. Antle, G. C. Nelson, C. Porter, S. Janssen, B. Basso, F. Ewert, D. Wallach, G. Baigorria, J. M. Winter

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model …

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison And Improvement Project (Agmip): Protocols And Pilot Studies, Cynthia Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, A. C. Ruane, K. J. Boote, P. Thornburn, J. M. Antle, G. C. Nelson, C. Porter, S. Janssen, S. Asseng, B. Basso, F. Ewert, D. Wallach, G. Baigorria, J. M. Winter

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model …

Tackling Change: Future-Proofing Water, Agriculture, And Food Security In An Era Of Climate Uncertainty, Peter G. Mccornick, Vladimir Smakhtin, Luna Bharati, Robyn Johnston, Matthew Mccartney, Fraser Sugden, Floriane Clement, Beverly Mcintyre

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

In 1950 the global population was just over 2.5 billion. Now, in 2013, it is around 7 billion. Although population growth is slowing, the world is projected to have around 9.6 billion inhabitants by 2050. Most of the population increase will be in developing countries where food is often scarce, and land and water are under pressure. To feed the global population in 2050 the world will have to produce more food without significantly expanding the area of cultivated land and, because of competition between a greater number of water users, with less freshwater. On top of land and water …

Critical Research Needs For Successful Food Systems Adaptation To Climate Change, Michelle Miller, Molly Anderson, Charles A. Francis, Chad Kruger, Carol Barford, Jacob Park, Brent H. Mccown

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

There is a growing sense of the fragility of agricultural production in the Global North and South and of increasing risks to food security, as scientific observations confirm significant changes in the Gulf Stream, polar ice, atmospheric CO₂, methane release, and other measures of climate change. This sense is heightened as each of us experiences extreme weather, such as the increasing frequency of droughts, floods, unseasonal temperatures, and erratic seasonality. The central research challenge before us is how global, national, regional, and local food systems may adapt to accelerating climate change stresses and uncertainties to ensure the availability, …

Ice-Age Megafauna In Arctic Alaska: Extinction, Invasion, Survival, Daniel H. Mann, Pamela Groves, Michael L. Kunz, Richard E. Reanier, Benjamin V. Gaglioti

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Radical restructuring of the terrestrial, large mammal fauna living in arctic Alaska occurred between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. Steppe bison, horse, and woolly mammoth became extinct, moose and humans invaded, while muskox and caribou persisted. The ice age mega fauna was more diverse in species and possibly contained 6x more individual animals than live in the region today. Mega faunal biomass during the last ice age may have been 30x greater than present. Horse was the dominant species in terms of number of individuals. Lions, short-faced bears, wolves, and possibly grizzly …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984-2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Agricultural Landuse Change Impacts On Bioenergy Production, Avifauna, And Water Use In Nebraska's Rainwater Basin, Daniel R. Uden

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Agriculture is an economically important form of landuse in the North American Great Plains. Since 19^th Century European settlement, conversion of grasslands to rowcrops has increased food and bioenergy production, but has decreased wildlife habitat. Future agricultural landuse changes may be driven by alternative energy demands and regional climatic changes. Landuse change and its drivers could affect bioenergy production, wildlife populations and natural resources, and considering the potential impacts of impending changes in advance could assist with preparations for an uncertain future.

This study addressed how the conversion of marginally productive agricultural lands in the Rainwater Basin region of …