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Interannual Variations In The Opening Date Of The Prudhoe Bay Shipping Season: Links To Atmospheric And Surface Conditions, Sheldon D. Drobot, James A. Maslanik, Mark R. Anderson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

This paper examines interannual variability in the opening date for the Prudhoe Bay shipping season (1953-2005), considers how variations in antecedent sea-ice and atmospheric conditions influence the opening date, and then develops a forecasting technique to predict whether the opening date will be early, normal, or late. Analysis of antecedent sea ice and atmospheric conditions indicates that there are significant differences in the Bering Sea ice cover as early as February in years preceding early versus late opening dates. In particular, prior to early opening years, the sea-ice cover in the southern Bering Sea is reduced in February, and as …