Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Improving The Validation Of Model-Simulated Crop Yield Response To Climate Change: An Application To The Epic Model* Jour. Ser. No. 11339 Nebraska Ag. Res. Div., William E. Easterling, Xiafen Chen, Cynthia Hays, James R, Brandle, Hehui Zang

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Crop models have been used extensively to simulate yield response to various scenarios of climate change. Such simulations have been inadequately validated, limiting their utility in policy analysis. In this research, it is argued that the performance of crop models during recent years of extreme weather conditions relative to current normals may give a better indication of the validity of model simulations of crop yields in response to climate change than performance during the full range of climate conditions (as is done now). Twenty years of the climate record (1971-1990) are separated into different growing season temperature and precipitation classes …