Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Recent Trends In The Frequency And Duration Of Global Floods, Nasser Najibi, Naresh Devineni

Publications and Research

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985–2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1–7, moderate: 8–20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. …

A 3d Characteristics Database Of Land Engraved Areas With Known Subclass, Entni Lin

Student Theses

Subclass characteristics on bullets may mislead firearm examiners when they rely on traditional 2D images. In order to provide indelible examples for training and help avoid identification errors, 3D topography surface maps and statistical methods of pattern recognition are applied to toolmarks on bullets containing known subclass characteristics. This research was conducted by collecting 3D topography surface map data from land engraved areas of bullets fired through known barrels. This data was processed and used to train the statistical algorithms to predict their origin. The results from the algorithm are compared with the “right answers” (i.e. correct IDs) of the …

Analysis Of Episodes Of Care In Medicare Beneficiaries Newly Diagnosed With Alzheimer’S Disease, Rezaul K. Khandker, Christopher Black, Lin Xie, M. Furaha Kariburyo, Baishali M. Ambegaonkar, Onur Baser, Huseyin Yuce, Howard Fillit

Publications and Research

OBJECTIVES: To study transitions between healthcare settings and quantify the cost burdens associated with different combinations of transitions during a 6-month period before initial Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnosis so as to investigate how using an episode-of-care approach to payment for specific disease states might apply in AD.

DESIGN: A retrospective observational cohort study.

SETTING: United States.

PARTICIPANTS: A random sample of 8,995 individuals aged 65 to 100 with a diagnosis of AD (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code 331.0) were identified from the Medicare database between January 1, 2011, and June 30, 2014. This analysis identified individuals …

Assessing The Ordinality Of Response Bias With Item Response Models: A Case Study Using The Phq-9, Venessa N. Singhroy

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Improper scale usage in psychological and clinical assessment is an important problem. If respondents do not use the scales in a consistent manner, the reliability of a composite is likely to be attenuated. This is particularly problematic when particular items are singled out for special treatment or when subscales are of interest, not just a total score. This study used both non-parametric and parametric item response theory (IRT) methods to gain further insight into the validity of the PHQ-9, a dual purpose instrument that assesses the severity of depressive symptoms using nine Likert-scale items and allows the investigator to establish …

Standard And Anomalous Wave Transport Inside Random Media, Xujun Ma

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis is a study of wave transport inside random media using random matrix theory. Anderson localization plays a central role in wave transport in random media. As a consequence of destructive interference in multiple scattering, the wave function decays exponentially inside random systems. Anderson localization is a wave effect that applies to both classical waves and quantum waves. Random matrix theory has been successfully applied to study the statistical properties of transport and localization of waves. Particularly, the solution of the Dorokhov-Mello-Pereyra-Kumar (DMPK) equation gives the distribution of transmission.

For wave transport in standard one dimensional random systems in …

Physical Applications Of The Geometric Minimum Action Method, George L. Poppe Jr.

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis extends the landscape of rare events problems solved on stochastic systems by means of the \textit{geometric minimum action method} (gMAM). These include partial differential equations (PDEs) such as the real Ginzburg-Landau equation (RGLE), the linear Schroedinger equation, along with various forms of the nonlinear Schroedinger equation (NLSE) including an application towards an ultra-short pulse mode-locked laser system (MLL).

Additionally we develop analytical tools that can be used alongside numerics to validate those solutions. This includes the use of instanton methods in deriving state transitions for the linear Schroedinger equation and the cubic diffusive NLSE.

These analytical solutions are …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

Burden Of Rheumatoid Arthritis Among Us Medicare Population: Co-Morbidities, Health-Care Resource Utilization And Costs, Chieh-I Chen, Li Wang, Wenhui Wei, Huseyin Yuce, Kristine Phillips

Publications and Research

Objectives. The study aimed to assess the burden of RA among the US Medicare population (aged 65 years) by comparing co-morbidities, health-care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs against matched non-RA Medicare patients.

Methods. Data were obtained from the Medicare fee-for-service claims database from 2010 to 2013. RA Medicare patients were identically matched with Medicare patients without RA (controls) based on demographics. Bivariate analyses were conducted to examine differences between cohorts for comorbidities, HCRU and costs. A generalized linear model was used to test relationships between patient-level characteristics, HCRU and costs.

Results. The study population included 115 867 RA patients and …

Mlb Rule Iv Draft: Valuing Draft Pick Slots, Anthony Cacchione

Dissertations and Theses

This study explored the Net Present Value (NPV) in dollar terms of draft pick slots in the Major League Rule IV Draft. In order to accomplish this, the cumulative performance of players selected in each slot within the draft was evaluated and brought to the Present Value of the time they were selected using a discount rate. The performance of the players was determined using the baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric. It is intuitive that earlier draft picks are the most valuable; however, it is unclear how quickly the value of draft picks decline. This research demonstrates that the …

Long-Term Outcomes After Elective Sterilization Procedures — A Comparative Retrospective Cohort Study Of Medicaid Patients, Rachel Steward, Patricia Carney, Amy Law, Lin Xie, Yuexi Wang, Huseyin Yuce

Publications and Research

Objectives: The objectives were to compare the long-termoutcomes, including hysterectomy, chronic pelvic pain (CPP) and abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB), in women post hysteroscopic sterilization (HS) and laparoscopic tubal ligation (TL) in the Medicaid population.

Study design: This was a retrospective observational cohort analysis using data from the US Medicaid Analytic Extracts Encounters database.Women aged 18 to 49 years with at least one claimfor HS (n=3929) or TL (n=10,875) between July 1, 2009, through December 31, 2010, were included. Main outcome measures were hysterectomy, CPP or AUB in the 24 months poststerilization. Propensity score matching was used to control for patient …

Of Rats And Men, Thomas S. Walsh

Capstones

This capstone is a data-driven investigation into New York City's rat problem. By using publicly available government data to map rat activity in NYC, I identified several socio-economic variables that correlate with rat populations at the community district, borough, and city-scale. I used these findings (mainly that rat problems are linked to lower incomes) as the basis of an investigation, which includes interviews with residents, experts, and city officials. Prof. Bobby Corrigan, urban rodentologist and formerly with the NYC Department of Health criticizes the city's efforts for the first time on the record.

https://thomasseiyawalsh.wixsite.com/ratstone

Economic Burden, Mortality, And Institutionalization In Patients Newly Diagnosed With Alzheimer’S Disease, Christopher M. Black, Howard Fillit, Lin Xie, Xiaohan Hu, M. Furaha Kariburyo, Baishali M. Ambegaonkar, Onur Baser, Huseyin Yuce, Rezaul K. Khandker

Publications and Research

Background: Current information is scarce regarding comorbid conditions, treatment, survival, institutionalization, and health care utilization for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients.

Objectives: Compare all-cause mortality, rate of institutionalization, and economic burden between treated and untreated newly-diagnosed AD patients.

Methods: Patients aged 65–100 years with ≥1 primary or ≥2 secondary AD diagnoses (ICD-9-CM:331.0] with continuous medical and pharmacy benefits for ≥12 months pre-index and ≥6 months post-index date (first AD diagnosis date) were identified from Medicare fee-for-service claims 01JAN2011–30JUN2014. Patients with AD treatment claims or AD/ADrelated dementia diagnosis during the pre-index period were excluded. Patients were assigned to treated and untreated cohorts …

Burden Of Atopic Dermatitis In The United States: Analysis Of Healthcare Claims Data In The Commercial, Medicare, And Medi-Cal Databases, Sulena Shrestha, Raymond Miao, Li Wang, Jingdong Chao, Huseyin Yuce, Wenhui Wei

Publications and Research

Comparative data on the burden of atopic dermatitis (AD) in adults relative to the general population are limited. We performed a large-scale evaluation of the burden of disease among US adults with AD relative to matched non-AD controls, encompassing comorbidities, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and costs, using healthcare claims data. The impact of AD disease severity on these outcomes was also evaluated.

Incorporating Place And Space: A Hierarchical Spatial Approach To Exploring Preventable Congestive Heart Failure Hospitalizations In New York City, Rachael Weiss Riley

Dissertations and Theses

Background: Faced with rising medical care costs, increasing prevalence, and widening health disparities, preventing congestive heart failure (CHF) hospitalizations is a central public health concern. Despite evidence of geographical clustering in preventable CHF admissions, there is a lack of research designed to examine spatial patterning of CHF and the local area neighborhood determinants that contribute to this variability. This study sought to assess and evaluate the importance of both space and place in analyzing preventable CHF hospitalizations and readmissions by applying appropriate statistical techniques, clarifying the assumption inherent in each method, and interpreting the findings within the context of existing …

Health Care Resource Utilization And Costs Of California Medicaid Patients With Schizophrenia Treated With Paliperidone Palmitate Once Monthly Or Atypical Oral Antipsychotic Treatment, Jacqueline A. Pesa,, Dilesh Doshi, Li Wang, Huseyin Yuce, Onur Baser

Publications and Research

Objective: To compare all-cause health care utilization and costs between patients with schizophrenia treated with once monthly paliperidone palmitate (PP1M; Invega Sustenna1) and atypical oral antipsychotic therapy (OAT).

Methods: This was a retrospective claims-based analysis among adult California Medicaid (Medi-Cal) patients with schizophrenia having 2 claims for PP1M or OAT from 1 July 2009 to 31 December 2013 and continuous health plan enrollment for 1 year pre- and post-index date (PP1M or OAT initiation date). Baseline characteristics were reported descriptively. Propensity score matching with a 1:1 greedy match method was used to create two matched cohorts. Treatment patterns, all-cause health …

City Life - Inquiry And Problem Solving Exercise, Milena Cuellar

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.

What’S Brewing? A Statistics Education Discovery Project, Marla A. Sole, Sharon L. Weinberg

Publications and Research

We believe that students learn best, are actively engaged, and are genuinely interested when working on real-world problems. This can be done by giving students the opportunity to work collaboratively on projects that investigate authentic, familiar problems. This article shares one such project that was used in an introductory statistics course. We describe the steps taken to investigate why customers are charged more for iced coffee than hot coffee, which included collecting data and using descriptive and inferential statistical analysis. Interspersed throughout the article, we describe strategies that can help teachers implement the project and scaffold material to assist students …

Technology Design: The Movement Of Means, Yu Gu

Open Educational Resources

In order to promote students’ conceptual understanding and learning experience in introductory statistics, a technology task, which focuses on the probability distribution in which means are defined, was created using TinkerPlots, an exploratory dataanalysis and modeling software. The targeted audiences range from senior high school grade levels to college freshmen who are starting their introductory course in statistics. Students will be guided to explore and discover the movement behaviors of means of a set of numbers randomly generated from a fixed range of values characterized by a predetermined probability distribution. The cognitive, mathematical, technological and pedagogical natures of the task, …

Teaching Size And Power Properties Of Hypothesis Tests Through Simulations, Suleyman Taspinar, Osman Dogan

Publications and Research

In this study, we review the graphical methods suggested in Davidson and MacKinnon (Davidson, Russell, and James G. MacKinnon. 1998. “Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests.” The Manchester School 66 (1): 1–26.) that can be used to investigate size and power properties of hypothesis tests for undergraduate and graduate econometrics courses. These methods can be used to assess finite sample properties of various hypothesis tests through simulation studies. In addition, these methods can be effectively used in classrooms to reinforce students’ understanding of basic hypothesis testing concepts such as Type I error, Type II error, …

Generalized Least-Powers Regressions I: Bivariate Regressions, Nataniel Greene

Publications and Research

The bivariate theory of generalized least-squares is extended here to least-powers. The bivariate generalized least-powers problem of order p seeks a line which minimizes the average generalized mean of the absolute pth power deviations between the data and the line. Least-squares regressions utilize second order moments of the data to construct the regression line whereas least-powers regressions use moments of order p to construct the line. The focus is on even values of p, since this case admits analytic solution methods for the regression coefficients. A numerical example shows generalized least-powers methods performing comparably to generalized least-squares methods, …

Implementing Some Basic Simuation Designs Using The Simsem Package In R, Keith A. Markus

Open Educational Resources

The purpose of this tutorial is to provide a very basic introduction to implementing three simple research designs using the simsem package in R. R is an open source statistical computing environment (R Core Team, 2015). For more information about R, see the R Project homepage (https://www.r-project.org/) and the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) web page (https://cran.r-project.org/). The lavaan package provides functions for fitting and evaluating structural equation models (Rosseel, 2012). For further information about the lavaan package including tutorials, see the lavaan Project web page (http://lavaan.ugent.be/). The simsem package (Pornprasertmanit, Miller & Schoemann, 2016) provides functions to facilitate structural …

Stochastic Processes And Their Applications To Change Point Detection Problems, Heng Yang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation addresses the change point detection problem when either the post-change distribution has uncertainty or the post-change distribution is time inhomogeneous. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, attention is drawn to the construction of a family of composite stopping times. It is shown that the proposed composite stopping time has third order optimality in the detection problem with Wiener observations and also provides information to distinguish the different values of post-change drift. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, a computationally efficient decision rule with low-complexity based on Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm is also introduced. In the time …

An Early Assessment Of Medium Range Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts From The Latest High-Resolution Ncep-Gfs (T1534) Model Over South Asia, Satya Prakash, Imaranali M. Momin, Ashis K. Mitra, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Fanglin Yang, Vijay Tallapragada

Publications and Research

Reliable prediction of the South Asian monsoon rainfall and its variability is crucial for various hydrological applications and early warning systems. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction – Global Forecast System (NCEP–GFS) is one of the popular global deterministic numerical weather prediction models, which is recently upgraded from T574 to T1534. In this paper, medium range monsoon precipitation forecasts from both the T1534 and T574 models are critically evaluated over the South Asia for the peak monsoon months (July and August) of 2015. Although both the versions of GFS model show similar large-scale monsoon rainfall patterns, the dry bias over …

Quantifying Transit Access In New York City: Formulating An Accessibility Index For Analyzing Spatial And Social Patterns Of Public Transportation, Maxwell S. Siegel

Theses and Dissertations

This paper aims to analyze accessibility within New York City’s transportation system through creating unique accessibility indices. Indices are detailed and implemented using GIS, analyzing the distribution of transit need and access. Regression analyses are performed highlighting relationships between demographics and accessibility and recommendations for transit expansion are presented.

Multilevel Analysis Of Individual, Neighborhood, And Health Care Facility Characteristics Associated With Achievement And Maintenance Of Hiv Viral Suppression Among Persons Newly Diagnosed With Hiv In New York City, Ellen W. Wiewel

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Objective

To investigate the effect of individual, health care facility, and neighborhood characteristics on achievement and maintenance of HIV viral suppression, among New York City residents aged 13 years and older diagnosed with HIV between 2006 and 2012.

Methods

I used individual-level data from the New York City HIV surveillance registry and Case Surveillance-Based Sampling, facility-level data from the surveillance registry, and neighborhood-level data from the U.S. Census and American Community Survey. The outcomes of interest were first viral suppression after diagnosis (Aims 1 and 3; ≤400 copies/mL) and virologic failure after first suppression among persons who achieved suppression (Aim …

A Preliminary Assessment Of Gpm-Based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimates Over A Monsoon Dominated Region, Satya Prakash, Ashis K. Mitra, Amir Aghakouchak, Zhong Liu, Hamidreza Norouzi, D. S. Pai

Publications and Research

Following the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, two advanced high resolution multi-satellite precipitation products namely, Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) version 6 are released. A critical evaluation of these newly released precipitation data sets is very important for both the end users and data developers. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of IMERG research product and GSMaP estimates over India at a daily scale for the southwest monsoon season (June to September 2014). The GPM-based precipitation products are inter-compared with widely used TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and …

An Evolutionary Vaccination Game In The Modified Activity Driven Network By Considering The Closeness, Dun Han, Mei Sun

Publications and Research

In this paper, we explore an evolutionary vaccination game in the modified activity driven network by considering the closeness. We set a closeness parameter p which is used to describe the way of connection between two individuals. The simulation results show that the closeness p may have an active role in weakening both the spreading of epidemic and the vaccination. Besides, when vaccination is not allowed, the final recovered density increases with the value of the ratio of the infection rate to the recovery rate λ/μ. However, when vaccination is allowed the final density of recovered individual first increases and …

Time Series Analysis For Psychological Research: Examining And Forecasting Change, Andrew T. Jebb, Louis Tay, Wei Wang, Qiming Huang

Publications and Research

Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that …

Using Spatiotemporal Methods To Fill Gaps In Energy Usage Interval Data, Kristin K. Graves

Theses and Dissertations

Researchers analyzing spatiotemporal or panel data, which varies both in location and over time, often find that their data has holes or gaps. This thesis explores alternative methods for filling those gaps and also suggests a set of techniques for evaluating those gap-filling methods to determine which works best.

Generalized Least-Squares Regressions V: Multiple Variables, Nataniel Greene

Publications and Research

The multivariate theory of generalized least-squares is formulated here using the notion of generalized means. The multivariate generalized least-squares problem seeks an m dimensional hyperplane which minimizes the average generalized mean of the square deviations between the data and the hyperplane in m + 1 variables. The numerical examples presented suggest that a multivariate generalized least-squares method can be preferable to ordinary least-squares especially in situations where the data are ill- conditioned.