Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A Large-Scale Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetic Study Identifies Association At Chr 9q33.2, Steven J. Schrodi

Steven J Schrodi

No abstract provided.

Modeling The Effect Of Alzheimer's Disease On Mortality, Elizabeth Johnson, Ron Brookmeyer, Kathryn Ziegler-Graham

Ron Brookmeyer

Mortality rate ratios and the associated proportional hazards models have been used to summarize the effect of Alzheimer's disease on longevity. However, the mortality rate ratios vary by age and therefore do not provide a simple parsimonious summary of the effect of the disease on lifespan. Instead, we propose a new parameter that is defined by an additive multistate model. The proposed multistate model accounts for different stages of disease progression. The underlying assumption of the model is that the effect of disease on mortality is to add a constant amount to death rates once the disease progresses from an …

A Practical Illustration Of The Importance Of Realistic Individualized Treatment Rules In Causal Inference, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan

Oliver Bembom

The effect of vigorous physical activity on mortality in the elderly is difficult to estimate using conventional approaches to causal inference that define this effect by comparing the mortality risks corresponding to hypothetical scenarios in which all subjects in the target population engage in a given level of vigorous physical activity. A causal effect defined on the basis of such a static treatment intervention can only be identified from observed data if all subjects in the target population have a positive probability of selecting each of the candidate treatment options, an assumption that is highly unrealistic in this case since …

Modeling The Incubation Period Of Anthrax, Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Sarah Barry

Ron Brookmeyer

Models of the incubation period of anthrax are important to public health planners because they can be used to predict the delay before outbreaks are detected, the size of an outbreak and the duration of time that persons should remain on antibiotics to prevent disease. The difficulty is that there is little direct data about the incubation period in humans. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply models for the incubation period of anthrax. Mechanistic models that account for the biology of spore clearance and germination are developed based on a competing risks formulation. The models predict …

Modeling An Outbreak Of Anthrax, Ron Brookmeyer

Ron Brookmeyer

Introduction

On October 2, 2001 a sixty-three-year-old Florida man who worked as a photo editor at a media publishing company was admitted to an emergency department complaining of nausea, vomiting, and fever. His symptoms began four days earlier on a recreational trip to North Carolina. The man died shortly thereafter. An astute clinician quickly made the surprising diagnosis of inhalational anthrax, which is a serious and deadly disease. The diagnosis was surprising because inhalational anthrax is extremely rare; only 18 cases were reported in the United States between 1900 and 1978. Public health officials at first believed that the Florida …

Regression With Signals And Images As Predictors, Philip T. Reiss

Philip T. Reiss

Signal regression and image regression, in which the outcomes are scalars and the predictors are one-dimensional signals or multidimensional images, are of interest in many scientific fields. The principal statistical challenge is how to reduce the dimension of the predictors in what would otherwise be a severely ill-posed problem. A pair of novel methods, functional principal component regression (FPCR) and functional partial least squares (FPLS), combine two existing approaches to the dimension reduction problem: selection of most relevant components, as is done in ordinary principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares (PLS), and restriction of the coefficient function to …

Biosecurity And The Role Of Statisticians, Ron Brookmeyer

Ron Brookmeyer

No abstract provided.

The Importance Of Experimental Design In Proteomic Mass Spectrometry Experiments: Some Cautionary Tales, Jeffrey S. Morris, Jianhua Hu, Kevin R. Coombes, Keith A. Baggerly

Jeffrey S. Morris

Proteomic expression patterns derived from mass spectrometry have been put forward as potential biomarkers for the early diagnosis of cancer and other diseases. This approach has generated much excitement and has led to a large number of new experiments and vast amounts of new data. The data, derived at great expense, can have very little value if careful attention is not paid to the experimental design and analysis. Using examples from surfaceenhanced laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight (SELDI-TOF) and matrix-assisted laser desorption–ionisation/time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) experiments, we describe several experimental design issues that can corrupt a dataset. Fortunately, the problems we identify can be …

Food Based Approaches For A Healthy Nutrition In Africa, Mamoudou Hama Dicko

Pr. Mamoudou H. DICKO, PhD

The latest estimates of the FAO demonstrate the problems of the fight against hunger. These problems are manifested by the ever-increasing number of chronically undernourished people worldwide. Their numbers during the 1999-2001 period were estimated at about 840 million of which 798 million live in developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa alone represented 198 million of those. In this part of Africa the prevalence of undernourishment ranges from 5-34%, causing growth retardation and insufficient weight gain among one third of the children under five years of age and resulting in a mortality of 5-15% among these children. Malnutrition resulting from undernourishment is …

Analyzing Time-To-Event Data In A Clinical Trial When An Unknown Proportion Of Subjects Has Experienced The Event At Entry, Raji Balasubramanian, Stephen W. Lagakos

Raji Balasubramanian

Ensuring The Comparability Of Comparison Groups: Is Randomization Enough?, Vance Berger, Sherri Rose

Sherri Rose

It is widely believed that baseline imbalances in randomized trials must necessarily be random. In fact, there is a type of selection bias that can cause substantial, systematic and reproducible baseline imbalances of prognostic covariates even in properly randomized trials. It is possible, given complete data, to quantify both the susceptibility of a given trial to this type of selection bias and the extent to which selection bias appears to have caused either observable or unobservable baseline imbalances. Yet, in articles reporting on randomized trials, it is uncommon to find either these assessments or the information that would enable a …

The Blups Are Not “Best” When It Comes To Bootstrapping, Jeffrey S. Morris

Jeffrey S. Morris

In the setting of mixed models, some researchers may construct a semiparametric bootstrap by sampling from the best linear unbiased predictor residuals. This paper demonstrates both mathematically and by simulation that such a bootstrap will consistently underestimate the variation in the data in finite samples.

Aging And The Public Health Impact Of Dementia, Ron Brookmeyer, Claudia Kawas

Ron Brookmeyer

No abstract provided.

Small Area Statistics: Large Statistical Problems, Paula Diehr

Paula Diehr

No abstract provided.

Cluster Analysis To Determine Headache Types, Paula Diehr

Paula Diehr

Cluster analysis was used to separate 726 headache patients into clusters of patients with similar symptoms. This was done to answer two questions: what "naturally occurring' groups of patients can be found? And how do these groups correspond to traditional headache types? When only two clusters were required, the best two clusters were tension and migraine-like. However, eight clusters could also be distinguished, and the migraine group then became very small. The clusters were tested for clinical interpretability by having 12 physicians name and prescribe treatment for the clusters. The suggested treatment was similar to what patients had actually received …