Disease Modeling Commons^™

Spatial Modelling And Wildlife Health Surveillance: A Case Study Of White Nose Syndrome In Ontario, Lauren Yee

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Wildlife data is often limited by survey effort, small sample sizes, and spatial biases associated with collection and missing data. These factors can create unique challenges from a surveillance perspective when trying to extract spatial patterns of habitat suitability and disease distributions for conservation and management purposes. This thesis examined data quality from a wildlife health database in the context of spatial analysis of wildlife disease. Spatial analysis of the data to predict habitat suitability of bats and white nose syndrome afflicted bats was examined by using the MaxEnt modelling method. Methods to reduce spatial bias were examined and specific …

The Role Of Intermittent Preventive Treatment For Malaria In Saving Lives And Promoting Drug Resistance, Carrie Manore

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Challenges In Modeling Complexity Of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Review Of Dynamics Of Visceral Leishmaniasis In Resource Limited Settings, Swati Debroy, Olivia F. Prosper, Austin Mishoe, Anuj Mubayi

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Objectives: Neglected tropical diseases (NTD), account for a large proportion of the global disease burden, and their control faces several challenges including diminishing human and financial resources for those distressed from such diseases. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the second-largest parasitic killer (after malaria) and an NTD affects poor populations and causes considerable cost to the affected individuals. Mathematical models can serve as a critical and cost-effective tool for understanding VL dynamics, however, complex array of socio-economic factors affecting its dynamics need to be identified and appropriately incorporated within a dynamical modeling framework. This study reviews literature on vector-borne diseases and collects …

Control Policies And Sensitivity Analysis In A Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Model: A Case Study In Cusco Region, Peru., Rocio M. Caja-Rivera, Ignacio Barradas

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Perspectives On Model Forecasts Of The 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic In West Africa: Lessons And The Way Forward, Gerardo Chowell, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani

Global Health Faculty Publications

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, …

International Consensus (Icon) On: Clinical Consequences Of Mite Hypersensitivity, A Global Problem., Mario Sánchez-Borges, Enrique Fernandez-Caldas, Wayne R. Thomas, Martin D. Chapman, Bee Wah Lee, Luis Caraballo, Nathalie Acevedo, Fook Tim Chew, Ignacio J. Ansotegui, Leili Behrooz, Wanda Phipatanakul, Roy Gerth Van Wijk, Demoly Pascal, Nelson Rosario, Motohiro Ebisawa, Mario Geller, Santiago Quirce, Susanne Vrtala, Rudolf Valenta, Markus Ollert, Giorgio Walter Canonica, Moises A. Calderón, Charles S. Barnes, Adnan Custovic, Suwat Benjaponpitak, Arnaldo Capriles-Hulett

Manuscripts, Articles, Book Chapters and Other Papers

Since mite allergens are the most relevant inducers of allergic diseases worldwide, resulting in significant morbidity and increased burden on health services, the International Collaboration in Asthma, Allergy and Immunology (iCAALL), formed by the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology (AAAAI), the American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology (ACAAI), the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI), and the World Allergy Organization (WAO), has proposed to issue an International Consensus (ICON) on the clinical consequences of mite hypersensitivity. The objectives of this document are to highlight aspects of mite biology that are clinically relevant, to update the …

Epidemiology Of White Spot Syndrome Virus In The Daggerblade Grass Shrimp (Palaemonetes Pugio) And The Gulf Sand Fiddler Crab (Uca Panacea), Muhammad

Dissertations

Ever since the first outbreaks of White spot syndrome virus (WSSV), which causes White Spot Disease (WSD), in Asia in the early 1990s, the pathogen has been a major constraint to the profitability of the shrimp aquaculture industry across the globe. WSSV has a broad host range and is routinely detected in wild decapod crustaceans. In the present study, two common species in the tidal salt marsh along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the daggerblade grass shrimp (Palaemonetes pugio) and the Gulf sand fiddler crab (Uca panacea), were investigated for their role as …

A Generalized-Growth Model To Characterize The Early Ascending Phase Of Infectious Disease Outbreaks, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Gerardo Chowell

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission, refine existing transmission models, and improve disease forecasts.

Materials and methods

We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. We test the model against empirical outbreak data representing a variety of viral pathogens in historic and contemporary populations, and provide simulations highlighting the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.

Results

We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing …

The Influence Of Temperature Variation On Dengue Fever: A Model-Based Investigation, Michael A. Robert, Paula D. Weber, Rebecca C. Christofferson, Christopher N. Mores, Helen J. Wearing

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Mathematical Model Of The Spread Of Dengue Fever Incorporating Mobility, Kelly A. Reagan

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, Amalia Magaret

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We have frequently implemented crossover studies to evaluate new therapeutic interventions for genital herpes simplex virus infection. The outcome measured to assess the efficacy of interventions on herpes disease severity is the viral shedding rate, defined as the frequency of detection of HSV on the genital skin and mucosa. We performed a simulation study to ascertain whether our standard model, which we have used previously, was appropriately considering all the necessary features of the shedding data to provide correct inference. We simulated shedding data under our standard, validated assumptions and assessed the ability of 5 different models to reproduce the …

Chronic Pancreatitis, Pain, And Anxiety In An Alcohol And High Fat Mouse Model, Tiffanie Clinkinbeard

Theses and Dissertations--Gerontology

Homeodynamic space (HDS) shrinks as vulnerability increases with aging and repeated damage to the cells. HDS is lost in alcoholic pancreatitis patients due to overconsumption of alcohol, smoking, and high fat diets. Etiologically relevant animal models for study of chronic pancreatitis (CP) are needed. In order to begin filling this gap a central purpose of this dissertation research was to examine relationships between the alcohol and high fat diet (AHF) and pancreatitis with attention to hypersensitivity and anxiety-like behaviors. The AHF diet induced pancreatitis described here etiologically mimics human risk factors of AHF consumption for advancement to alcoholic CP.

In …

Space-Time Modelling Of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Assessing Leptospirosis Risk In Sri Lanka, Cameron C F Plouffe

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In this research, models were developed to analyze leptospirosis incidence in Sri Lanka and its relation to rainfall. Before any leptospirosis risk models were developed, rainfall data were evaluated from an agro-ecological monitoring network for producing maps of total monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka. Four spatial interpolation techniques were compared: inverse distance weighting, thin-plate splines, ordinary kriging, and Bayesian kriging. Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Satellite data were used to assess the spatial pattern of rainfall. Results indicated that Bayesian kriging and splines performed best in low and high rainfall, respectively. Rainfall maps generated from …

Computational Model For Survey And Trend Analysis Of Patients With Endometriosis : A Decision Aid Tool For Ebm, Salvo Reina, Vito Reina, Franco Ameglio, Mauro Costa, Alessandro Fasciani

COBRA Preprint Series

Endometriosis is increasingly collecting worldwide attention due to its medical complexity and social impact. The European community has identified this as a “social disease”. A large amount of information comes from scientists, yet several aspects of this pathology and staging criteria need to be clearly defined on a suitable number of individuals. In fact, available studies on endometriosis are not easily comparable due to a lack of standardized criteria to collect patients’ informations and scarce definitions of symptoms. Currently, only retrospective surgical stadiation is used to measure pathology intensity, while the Evidence Based Medicine (EBM) requires shareable methods and correct …

Raccoon Acclimation Towards Traps And Its Effect On Surveillance And Monitoring Of Zoonotic Diseases, Lindsay Rollend

Master's Theses

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) serve as a source of infection with various pathogens for people, most notably, rabies. Raccoons are specifically targeted for the control of rabies in the United States, primarily due to the 100% fatality rate in humans and animals. There is no cure or treatment for rabies and vaccines may be administered to people if it is administered promptly. In order to evaluate how successful trapping of raccoons is by using conventional methods, motion sensing cameras were placed on traps in order to captured raccoon behaviors. Pictures were coded based on these behaviors (around the trap but not …

Analyzing The Effects Of Policy Options To Mitigate The Effect Of Sea Level Rise On The Public Health And Medically Fragile Population: A System Dynamics Approach, Rafael Diaz, Joshua Behr, Anna Jeng, Hua Liu, Franceso Longo

VMASC Publications

A critical question related to climate change concerns to how rising sea level will affect underserved populations and medically fragile population in coastal zones and floodplains. As sea levels rise, coastal waters will regain near-tidal areas and co-mingle with human-made pollutants, resulting from decades of industrial and commercial activity. This poses potential threat and risks to public health and the environment. It is critical that decision makers will initiate a process of parsing resources to the mitigation and management of these issues. The purpose of this research is to model the inherent dynamics of this process and understand how near-term …

Aids Denialism, Erika Jenel Delos Santos, Roy Llana, Jocelyn Tan

Festival of Communities: UG Symposium (Posters)

AIDS denialism is a growing issue in many parts the world. Through scholarly journal articles, book resources and other research tactics, further understanding how HIV/AIDS denialism is unethical can be distinguished. Discovering that AIDS is most prominent in South Africa explains why denialism is as critical as it is. However, the unethical aspect of AIDS denialism is in effect particularly amongst families. When a South African inhabitant realizes they have AIDS, they feel outcasted by their families due to shame. They fear as though they will be disowned because they have flaws that are unacceptable. These family values are significant …

Analysis Of Randomized Comparative Clinical Trial Data For Personalized Treatment Selections, Tianxi Cai, Lu Tian, Peggy H. Wong, L. J. Wei

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Calibrating Parametric Subject-Specific Risk Estimation, Tianxi Cai, Lu Tian, Hajime Uno, Scott D. Solomon, L. J. Wei

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Evaluating Subject-Level Incremental Values Of New Markers For Risk Classification Rule, Tianxi Cai, Lu Tian, Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, L. J. Wei

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

A Likelihood Based Method For Real Time Estimation Of The Serial Interval And Reproductive Number Of An Epidemic, Laura Forsberg White, Marcello Pagano

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of Areal Data And Discovery Of Neighborhood Relationships In Conditionally Autoregressive Models, Subharup Guha, Louise Ryan

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Hierarchical Models For Combining Ecological And Case-Control Data, Sebastien Haneuse, Jon Wakefield

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The ecological study design suffers from a broad range of biases that result from the loss of information regarding the joint distribution of individual-level outcomes, exposures and confounders. The consequent non-identifiability of individual-level models cannot be overcome without additional information; we combine ecological data with a sample of individual-level case-control data. The focus of this paper is hierarchical models to account for between-group heterogeneity. Estimation and inference pose serious compu- tational challenges. We present a Bayesian implementation, based on a data augmentation scheme where the unobserved data are treated as auxiliary variables. The methods are illustrated with a dataset of …

Disease Mapping And Spatial Regression With Count Data, Jon Wakefield

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In this paper we provide critical reviews of methods suggested for the analysis of aggregate count data in the context of disease mapping and spatial regression. We introduce a new method for picking prior distributions, and propose a number of refinements of previously-used models. We also consider ecological bias, mutual standardization, and choice of both spatial model and prior specification. We analyze male lip cancer incidence data collected in Scotland over the period 1975–1980, and outline a number of problems with previous analyses of these data. A number of recommendations are provided. In disease mapping studies, hierarchical models can provide …

Different Public Health Interventions Have Varying Effects, Paula Diehr, Anne B. Newman, Liming Cai, Ann Derleth

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Objective: To compare performance of one-time health interventions to those that change the probability of transitioning from one health state to another. Study Design and Setting: We used multi-state life table methods to estimate the impact of eight types of interventions on several outcomes. Results: In a cohort beginning at age 65, curing all the sick persons at baseline would increase life expectancy by 0.23 years and increase years of healthy life by .54 years. An equal amount of improvement could be obtained with a 12% decrease in the probability of getting sick, a 16% increase in the probability of …

A Hybrid Model For Reducing Ecological Bias, Ruth Salway, Jon Wakefield

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A major drawback of epidemiological ecological studies, in which the association between area-level summaries of risk and exposure are used to make inference about individual risk, is the difficulty in characterising within-area variability in exposure and confounder variables. To avoid ecological bias, samples of individual exposure/confounder data within each area are required. Unfortunately these may be difficult or expensive to obtain, particularly if large samples are required. In this paper we propose a new approach suitable for use with small samples. We combine a Bayesian non-parametric Dirichlet process prior with an estimating functions approach, and show that this model gives …

Health-Exposure Modelling And The Ecological Fallacy, Jon Wakefield, Gavin Shaddick

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Recently there has been increased interest in modelling the association between aggregate disease counts and environmental exposures measured, for example via air pollution monitors, at point locations. This paper has two aims: first we develop a model for such data in order to avoid ecological bias; second we illustrate that modelling the exposure surface and estimating exposures may lead to bias in estimation of health effects. Design issues are also briefly considered, in particular the loss of information in moving from individual to ecological data, and the at-risk populations to consider in relation to the pollution monitor locations. The approach …

Is The Number Of Sick Persons In A Cohort Constant Over Time?, Paula Diehr, Ann Derleth, Anne Newman, Liming Cai

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Objectives: To estimate the number of persons in a cohort who are sick, over time.

Methods: We calculated the number of sick persons in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a cohort study of older adults followed up to 14 years, using eight definitions of “healthy” and “sick”. We projected the number in each health state over time for a birth cohort.

Results: The number of sick persons in CHS was approximately constant for 14 years, for all definitions of “sick”. The estimated number of sick persons in the birth cohort was approximately constant from ages 55-75, after which it decreased. …

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models For Summer Ozone Exposure And Cardio-Respiratory Mortality, Yi Huang, Francesca Dominici, Michelle L. Bell

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994.

At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by …

Individualized Predictions Of Disease Progression Following Radiation Therapy For Prostate Cancer., Jeremy Taylor, Menggang Yu, Howard M. Sandler

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Background: Following treatment for localized prostate cancer, men are monitored with serial PSA measurements. Refining the predictive value of post-treatment PSA determinations may add to clinical management and we have developed a model that predicts for an individual patient future PSA values and estimates the time to future clinical recurrence.

Methods: Data from 934 patients treated for prostate cancer between 1987 and 2000 were used to develop a comprehensive statistical model to fit the clinical recurrence events and pattern of PSA data. A logistic regression model was used for the probability of cure, non-linear hierarchical mixed models were used for …