Disease Modeling Commons^™

Simulating Influenza Epidemics With Waning Vaccine Immunity, Chun-Miin Chen, Alia C. Stanciu

Faculty Journal Articles

In this study, we simulate an influenza epidemic that considers the effects of waning immunity by fitting epidemiological models to CDC secondary historical data aggregated on a weekly basis, and derive the transmission rates at which susceptible individuals become infected over the course of the influenza season. Using a system of differential equations, we define four groups of individuals in a population: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. We show that a larger number of initially infected individuals might not only bring the influenza season to an end sooner but also reduce the epidemic size. Moreover, any influenza virus that entails …

Implementation Of Pediatric Adverse Childhood Experiences Screening In Primary Care, Alexzandra Hillyer

Dissertations

Implementation of Pediatric Adverse Childhood Experiences Screening in Primary Care

Problem: Over half of children worldwide have experienced abuse in the past year. In 2012, The American Academy of Pediatrics released a policy statement emphasizing the importance of primary care providers implementing Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) screening into all well-child examinations.

Methods: This quality improvement project was a descriptive, observational pilot study in which Center for Youth-Well ACE Questionnaire (CYW-ACE-Q) was implemented into a large, metropolitan pediatric primary care clinic. A convenience sample was utilized composed of pediatric patients between the ages of 5 and 18 being seen for a …

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics …

The Effects Of Differences In Vaccination Rates Across Socioeconomic Groups On The Size Of Measles Outbreaks, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Conference papers

Vaccination rates are often presented at the level of a country or region. However, within those areas there might be geographic or demographic pockets that have higher or lower vaccination rates. We use an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of measles in Irish towns to examine if the effectiveness of vaccination rates to reduce disease at a population level is sensitive to the uniformity of vaccinations across socioeconomic groups. We find that when vaccinations are not applied evenly across socioeconomic groups we see more outbreaks and outbreaks with larger magnitudes.

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

Predictive Modeling And Estimation Of The Doubling Time Of Confirmed Cases Of Covid-19 In Niger, Ibrahim Sidi Zakari, Hadiza Galadima

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Modeling is increasingly used to assess scenarios and make projections on the future course of new coronavirus disease. This allows for better planning of care as well as a relaxation or tightening of the restrictive measures decreed by the government and the health authorities. The data analyzed in this study covers the period from March 19 to June 05, 2020 and allowed predictions of new cases of COVID-19 based on a growth model with a growth rate that changes linearly over time. In addition, we calculated and predicted the doubling time of the number of positive cases in each region …

Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …

Use Of Lymesim 2.0 To Assess The Potential For Single And Integrated Management Methods To Control Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes Scapularis; Acari: Ixodidae) And Transmission Of Lyme Disease Spirochetes, Shravani Chitineni, Elizabeth R. Gleim, Holly D. Gaff

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Annual Lyme disease cases continue to rise in the U.S. making it the most reported vector-borne illness in the country. The pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi) and primary vector (Ixodes scapularis; blacklegged tick) dynamics of Lyme disease are complicated by the multitude of vertebrate hosts and varying environmental factors, making models an ideal tool for exploring disease dynamics in a time- and cost-effective way. In the current study, LYMESIM 2.0, a mechanistic model, was used to explore the effectiveness of three commonly used tick control methods: habitat-targeted acaricide (spraying), rodent-targeted acaricide (bait boxes), and white-tailed deer targeted acaricide (4-poster …

A Model For Inhalation Of Infectious Aerosol Contaminants In An Aircraft Passenger Cabin, Bert A. Silich

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Aerosol contamination of an aircraft cabin by infectious passengers is a concern of passengers, aircrew and the aviation industry. This may be especially important during a pandemic, such as COVID-19, where the full extent of aerosol transmission is not well understood. A statistical method to determine the number of infectious passengers on board along with a mathematical model estimating the contaminant concentration of aerosols in the cabin and the number of inhaled infectious particles by passengers is presented. An example is used to demonstrated how the results can be estimated during normal operations and emergency conditions with malfunctions of the …

Applying Immuno-Epidemiology Principles To Violence, Anna H. Sisk, Nina H. Fefferman, Judy Day, Patricia Bamwine

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Analyzing The Control Measures For The Homeless Population And Quantifying Their Impact On The Covid-19 Epidemic In New York City, Steven Manns

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns, Risk Perception, And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Both agent-based models and equation-based models can be used to model the spread of an infectious disease. Equation-based models have been shown to capture the overall dynamics of a disease outbreak while agent-based models are able to capture heterogeneous characteristics of agents that drive the spread of an outbreak. However, agent-based models are computationally intensive. To capture the advantages of both the equation-based and agent-based models, we create a hybrid model where the disease component of the hybrid model switches between agent-based and equation-based. The switch is determined using the number of agents infected. We first test the model at …

Intensive Animal Farming Conditions Are A Major Threat To Global Health, Cynthia Schuck-Paim

Animal Sentience

Wiebers & Feigin accurately propose that reducing the risks posed by infectious disease outbreaks and other global health challenges will depend critically on transitioning away from intensive animal farming practices. Creating the right incentive structure for this transition to happen is one of the great challenges in the years to come, but a much-needed step to ensure the health and well-being of current and future generations.

The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Power Of Numbers, Jessica Ancker

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a deluge of news coverage of quantitative concepts. In this viewpoint, we provide examples of effective and poor quantitative communication by the professional news media as well as social media communicators. Effective examples include a number of online animations and engaging interactive simulations. Examples of poor quantitative communication include the widespread reporting of raw numbers rather than rates, failing to address uncertainty, not providing sufficient context for numbers, and not discussing the implications of false negative and false positive diagnostic test results. Educators can draw from this body of news to develop compelling quantitative literacy …

Impact Of Dogs With Deltamethrin-Impregnated Collars On Prevalence Of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Mondal H. Zahid

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Applying Modern Immunology To The Plague Of Ancient Athens, Juhi C. Patel

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

During the 5^th century BCE, ancient Athens and Sparta were involved in a major war during which an epidemic disease broke out in Athens, claiming the lives of a substantial part of the population. Although the ancient Greek historian Thucydides provides a first-hand account of the symptoms of the plague, modern historians have not been able to definitively identify the pathogen that caused the deadly epidemic. In 1994, a burial tomb of Athens was unearthed that unveiled the likely remains of plague victims. In 2005, scientists conducted molecular testing on the dental remains and used suicide PCR to compare …

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

484— Modeling Social Distancing Methods And Their Effectiveness In Combating The Spread Of Ebola, Rachel Fair

GREAT Day Posters

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare but severe disease that is transmitted among humans through direct-contact with, and close proximity to, infected bodily fluids. From 2014-16, West Africa experienced the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded, infecting over 28,000 people, and killing over 11,000. Although the symptoms of EVD are treatable, the disease can be extremely deadly, with an average of 50% EVD cases resulting in fatality. In areas where healthcare is scarce and vaccinations are not readily available, the practices of social distancing and self-quarantining have been shown to be highly effective in combating the spread of EVD. To …

On The Inadequacy Of Species Distribution Models For Modelling The Spread Of Sars-Cov-2: Response To Araújo And Naimi, Joseph D. Chipperfield, Blas M. Benito, Robert B. O'Hara, Richard J. Telford, Colin J. Carlson

United States Public Health Resources

The ongoing pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is causing significant damage to public health and economic livelihoods, and is putting significant strains on healthcare services globally. This unfolding emergency has prompted the preparation and dissemination of the article “Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate” by Araújo and Naimi (2020). The authors present the results of an ensemble forecast made from a suite of species distribution models (SDMs), where they attempt to predict the suitability of the climate for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the coming months. They argue that climate is …

Predictive Modeling Of Influenza In New England Using A Recurrent Deep Neural Network, Alfred Amendolara

Theses

Predicting seasonal variation in influenza epidemics is an ongoing challenge. To better predict seasonal influenza and provide early warning of pandemics, a novel approach to Influenza-Like-Illness (ILI) prediction was developed. This approach combined a deep neural network with ILI, climate, and population data. A predictive model was created using a deep neural network based on TensorFlow 2.0 Beta. The model used Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) nodes. Data was collected from the Center for Disease Control, the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the United States Census Bureau. These parameters were temperature, precipitation, wind speed, population size, vaccination rate and …

An Analysis Of The Rajasthan Public Health System’S Response To The 2019 Dengue Insurgence, Luke Bryan

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Dengue virus is in a pandemic status and is a major public health issue in the modern world. The mosquito-borne disease is largely prevalent in Asia and specifically India, where more than half of the states are considered to have complete presence of the dengue virus. The intricate infrastructure of the Indian public health system looks for dengue cases at all levels and reports to the integrated disease surveillance programme (IDSP).

Analyses of the IDSP and trends of dengue cases was done in response to dengue outbreaks throughout the state. Geographic information system (GIS) maps were created to evaluate a …

Ticked Off: How Expansion Of City Boundaries Affects Rates Of Lyme Disease In The United States, Daphne Fauber

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

Characterizing The Permanence And Stationary Distribution For A Family Of Malaria Stochastic Models, Divine Wanduku

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Ebola: Impact Of Hospital's Admission Policy In An Overwhelmed Scenario, Mondal H. Zahid

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Decoys And Dilution: The Impact Of Incompetent Hosts On Prevalence Of Chagas Disease, Mondal H. Zahid

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Seeing Eye To Eye: A Machine Learning Approach To Automated Saccade Analysis, Maigh Attre

Honors Scholar Theses

Abnormal ocular motility is a common manifestation of many underlying pathologies particularly those that are neurological. Dynamics of saccades, when the eye rapidly changes its point of fixation, have been characterized for many neurological disorders including concussions, traumatic brain injuries (TBI), and Parkinson’s disease. However, widespread saccade analysis for diagnostic and research purposes requires the recognition of certain eye movement parameters. Key information such as velocity and duration must be determined from data based on a wide set of patients’ characteristics that may range in eye shapes and iris, hair and skin pigmentation [36]. Previous work on saccade analysis has …

Application Of Data Assimilation In Forecasting Of Influenza In The United States, Hannah Biegel

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Simulating Antibiotic Resistance In The Computer Lab And Biology Lab: Ideas For Undergraduate Projects, Anne E. Yust

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Studies Of Amino Acid Mutations In Drug Resistance Of The Smo Protein, Eunice Wintona

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Smoothened receptor (SMO) is a protein that in humans, is encoded by the SMO gene. A systemic mutation in its binding pocket helps predict the sensitivity of mutant proteins to different drugs. Known as a GPCR-like receptor, it is a component of the hedgehog signaling pathway; a pathway involved in body patterning and the regulation of adult stem cells. An uncontrolled or inappropriate activation of the Hedgehog pathway drives tumor progression in cancers and a number of birth defects. To achieve these goals, the molecular modeling software MOE was used to build small molecules and drug molecules like Vismodegib and …