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Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

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Full-Text Articles in Immunology of Infectious Disease

A Probabilistic Modeling Analysis Of The Longitudinal Immune Response To Infection And Vaccination Across Demographic Groups And Pulmonary Symptoms, James O'Hanlon, Kaitlyn Sullivan, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Glenda Canderan, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Jeffrey M. Wilson, Rayanne A. Luke Jan 2026

A Probabilistic Modeling Analysis Of The Longitudinal Immune Response To Infection And Vaccination Across Demographic Groups And Pulmonary Symptoms, James O'Hanlon, Kaitlyn Sullivan, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Glenda Canderan, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Jeffrey M. Wilson, Rayanne A. Luke

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Antibody and cytokine kinetics describe the dynamic response to immune events such as infection and vaccination. These dynamics are not fully understood, and mathematical characterization may help explain variability across demographic groups and pulmonary symptoms post-acute infection. We fit time-dependent probability models to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) data to obtain distributions of longitudinal antibody response and cytokine values. To assess differences between groups, an overlap metric is applied to the modeled response curves. Our antibody models suggest significant differences between male and female populations and demonstrate deficient antibody responses of less-healthy groups such as smokers. Our cytokine …

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Decoding Early Covid-19 Responses Using Mathematical Modeling Of Social Distancing Strategies Across Multiple Countries, Sri Gunturu, Suki Lewis, Katelyn Nguyen, Asma Azizi Jan 2026

Decoding Early Covid-19 Responses Using Mathematical Modeling Of Social Distancing Strategies Across Multiple Countries, Sri Gunturu, Suki Lewis, Katelyn Nguyen, Asma Azizi

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

During the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, before vaccines were available, countries implemented diverse combinations of social-distancing (SD) measures shaped by cultural norms and public acceptance. These differences produced varied outcomes in controlling viral spread, offering lessons for future health-crisis preparedness. We performed a reverse-engineering analysis of early COVID-19 case data from five socioculturally distinct countries—India, Vietnam, Italy, Finland, and the United States—selected to capture a range of initial prevalence levels. Using mathematical modeling and data fitting, we inferred the relative contributions of three SD interventions: face masking, quarantine, and isolation of infected individuals. We then employed an efficiency …

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Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz Feb 2021

Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …

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Combating Tuberculosis: Using Time-Dependent Sensitivity Analysis To Develop Strategies For Treatment And Prevention, Kendall B. Clark, Mayleen Cortez, Cristian Hernandez, Beth E. Thomas, Allison L. Lewis Jul 2019

Combating Tuberculosis: Using Time-Dependent Sensitivity Analysis To Develop Strategies For Treatment And Prevention, Kendall B. Clark, Mayleen Cortez, Cristian Hernandez, Beth E. Thomas, Allison L. Lewis

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Although many organizations throughout the world have worked tirelessly to control tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, no country has yet been able to eradicate the disease completely. We present two compartmental models representing the spread of a TB epidemic through a population. The first is a general TB model; the second is an adaptation for regions in which HIV is prevalent, accounting for the effects of TB/HIV co-infection. Using active subspaces, we conduct time-dependent sensitivity analysis on both models to explore the significance of certain parameters with respect to the spread of TB. We use the results of this sensitivity analysis to …

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Parameter Sensitivity For In Vitro Anthrax Studies, Yareley Gonzalez, Maria Macias-Bedolla, Megan O. Powell Sep 2018

Parameter Sensitivity For In Vitro Anthrax Studies, Yareley Gonzalez, Maria Macias-Bedolla, Megan O. Powell

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Studies done on interactions between spores and macrophages done in vitro show inconsistent results based on experimental protocol and inhibit meaningful extrapolation to in vivo. In this study, we perform a sensitivity analysis of a model representing in vitro studies of interactions between anthrax spores and macrophages to help address the effects of these inconsistencies. We perform both local and global analyses using Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients. Our analysis indicates the amount of intracellular bacteria over time is most sensitive to the killing of intracellular bacteria by the macrophages and replication of the bacteria inside …

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