Agricultural Economics Commons^™

Measuring The Impact Of Hurricane Incidence On Agricultural Production Risk Using Insurance Data, Hunter D. Biram, Micah Cameron-Harp, Jesse Tack

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Hurricanes are considered among the most destructive natural disasters in the United States. The exposure of agricultural production systems to hurricanes varies between regions in contrast to global risks like commodity price volatility and international trade policies. The regional differences in hurricane exposure may lead to heterogeneity in crop insurance premium rates. This work aims to measure the impact of hurricane incidence on production losses for crops grown in the Mississippi Delta. We leverage a county-month panel of insurance losses spanning 2002-2021 from the US Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency, and daily data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric …

Feed Prices, Substitution Patterns, And Technical Efficiency In Feedlot Cattle, Andrew E. Anderson, James L. Mitchell, Jamie R. Luke

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

The cattle feeding industry is sandwiched between relatively volatile commodity markets, and efficiency is critical. Changing prices for feedstuffs may cause substitution and output effects, in turn impacting technical efficiency. Using Kansas feedlot data, we estimate the effects of feed prices on cattle performance, focusing on the feed conversion ratio, average daily gain, and days on feed. Results show that several feed prices do indeed impact technical efficiency. These results have implications for management adapting to changing feed prices. Further, there are policy implications for programs that may impact commodity prices.

Stock-To-Use Ratio And Price Of Rice: Deciphering The Relationships, Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb, Joohun Han, Willy Mulimbi, Durand-Morat Alvaro

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

The stock-to-use ratio (STU) is a widely utilized indicator to assess market conditions and forecast price movements for agricultural commodities. However, before drawing any conclusions, it is essential to empirically investigate the relationship between STU and commodity prices. Using rice as a case study, this research examines the empirical linkage between rice prices and STU, both collectively and individually across 16 leading rice-producing and consuming countries. To do so, the study first employs the panel vector autoregression approach to capture the dynamic interrelationships in a panel data setting, followed by vector autoregression estimation at the individual country level. The results …

Surface Water Irrigation Reservoirs Improve Groundwater Recovery In A Heavily Stressed Aquifer, Joshua Michael Blackstock, Obembe Odipo, Aaron Shew, Michele Reba, Joseph Massey, Phillip R. Owens, Christopher D. Delhom

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Expansion of irrigated cropland area in eastern Arkansas has led to the formation of regional cones of depression and creation of critical groundwater areas for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) in Arkansas. In response, use of surface water reservoirs for irrigation in the Grand Prairie critical groundwater area (GPCGA) has been implemented toward improving groundwater recovery, but effects of this strategy are unclear. We leverage publicly available satellite imagery and geospatial computational resources to estimate in GPCGA: (1) total surface water area on cropland and non-cropland potentially used for irrigation using a supervised classification model and (2) causal …

The Future Research Direction Of Cgiar: Lessons Learned From One Cgiar, Katie Loethen

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Since its founding in 1971, CGIAR (formerly the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) has been at the forefront of agricultural innovation, credited with launching the Green Revolution and delivering 1.78 trillion USD in net present value (NPV) benefits globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite these accomplishments, CGIAR now faces internal and external pressures that threaten its future impact. The 2019 reorganization into “One CGIAR” aimed to enhance coordination but has been criticized for adding bureaucracy and reducing scientific autonomy. Simultaneously, public funding for agricultural research is shrinking, while private sector investment often overlooks low-margin, high-need areas central …

Pricing The Unknown: An Analysis Of Expected Value Of Young Horses And Price-Determining Factors, Rupasri Sura

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

From a seller’s point of view in a market, it is crucial to plan the pricing strategies based on perceptions of buyer preferences and their willingness to purchase to ensure market success in selling and pricing. Applying this to the equine industry, this paper studies the factors determining the price of young horses (age ≤ 2 years) in digital auction platforms. Using data from Professional Horse Services, LLC (2012–2023), a Heckman’s two-step approach was employed, which involves a probit model as the first step and a hedonic price model as the second, aiming to correct for sample selection bias in …

B.R. Wells Arkansas Rice Research Studies 2024, J. Hardke, X. Sha, N. Bateman

Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station Research Series

Research reports contained in the publication may represent preliminary or only a single year of results; therefore, these results should not be read as a basis for long-term recommendations.

Several research reports in this publication will appear in other University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station publications. This duplication is the result of the overlap in research coverage between disciplines and our effort to inform Arkansas rice producers of all the research being conducted with funds from the rice check-off program. This publication also contains research funded by industry, federal, and state agencies.

Use of products …

The Market For Local Beef And Local Beef Processing Investment In Arkansas., Rebekah O'Neal

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in the U.S. food supply chain, particularly in the beef sector, where processing bottlenecks and labor shortages disrupted meat production and the market. In response, several policies were implemented to strengthen food system resilience, and significant funding was allocated to expand independent meat processing capacity nationwide. However, the long-term viability of expanding regional processing capacity remains uncertain, notably in Arkansas, a net exporter of live cattle. This study evaluates whether consumer demand supports the expansion of local beef processing in Arkansas. Using a dichotomous choice survey, we estimate market shares for beef labeled “Arkansas Grown” …

Factors Associated With Farm Service Agency Direct Farm Ownership Loan Delinquency, Mohammad Ismile Hossain

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the factors associated with loan defaults in the USDA's Direct Farm Ownership (FO) loan program, emphasizing factors that affect how long it takes to default. This study uses a Cox Proportional Hazards model on a dataset of more than 47,000 loan records originated during 2011-2020 to identify loan characteristics, financial factors, and geographic settings related to the likelihood and timing of delinquency, which is defined as being 90 days past due. Recent research has focused on differences in loan outcomes based on demographics. This study, on the other hand, focuses on loan size, interest rates and terms, …

Economic Contribution Of The Agricultural Sector To The Arkansas Economy In 2023, Frank Seo

AAES Research Reports and Research Bulletins

This report is the eighteenth in a series that examines agriculture’s economic contribution to the Arkansas economy. The total economic contribution of agriculture (direct, indirect, and induced effects) on value added, employment, and labor income was estimated with the Impact Analysis for Planning System (IMPLAN) for the most recent year available, 2023.

Farmers’ Perceptions About Drivers Of Poverty: A Case Study Of Cocoa Farmers In Ghana, Felix Agyei Boamah

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Cocoa farmers in Ghana face numerous challenges that undermine their incomes and living standards, including high labor costs, fluctuating cocoa prices, high cost and limited access to inputs, lack of credit, illegal mining, weather risks, small farm sizes, outdated farming and drying technologies, and inadequate extension services. These issues reduce productivity, lower incomes, and perpetuate poverty. This study examined farmers’ perceptions about the importance of these challenges and assessed possible differences across regions and farm households’ socioeconomic status. In the summer of 2024, data were collected from 400 cocoa farmers in major cocoa-producing areas of Ghana’s Eastern and Ashanti regions. …

Performance And Feasibility Of Pasture Rangeland And Forage Insurance In The Delta Region, Walker Bradley Davis

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Despite being available nationwide since 2016, enrollment in Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance remains low in many regions of the country. The program's performance also presents regional discrepancies, with loss ratios varying significantly. Studies that have simplified the complexity of interval selection for producers have been shown to positively affect PRF enrollment. Such studies remain limited in several forage-producing areas. This study aims to address the lack of information in Arkansas specifically. Arkansas has among the nation's lowest participation rates and loss ratios. Low loss ratios signal that participants pay more in premiums than received in indemnities and may …

Cultivating The Wild: Strategies For Entrepreneurs Navigating Niche And Specialty Food Markets, Trey Malone, Courtney F. Cooper

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Introduction Consumer demand for authenticity and sustainability in food systems is growing, creating both opportunities and challenges for entrepreneurs in niche and specialty markets. While wild-foraged and hunted foods are often perceived as more "natural" and sustainable, attempts to scale these products through farming may compromise their perceived authenticity.Methods To explore these dynamics, we conducted discrete choice experiments with a nationally representative sample of 1,039 U.S. consumers. Participants evaluated their willingness to pay (WTP) for salmon, venison, and morel mushrooms, presented in both wild-foraged/hunted and farm-raised forms.Results Consumers exhibited strong preferences for wild versions of all three products, with average …

Cultural Worldview And Rural Consumer Preferences For Genetically Modified Foods, Nathan P. Kemper

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

The consumer acceptance of genetically modified (GM) foods varies widely based on personal values and social context. This study investigates how cultural worldviews—measured through the Individualism–Communitarianism and Hierarchical–Egalitarianism dimensions—affect willingness to pay (WTP) for food labeling attributes related to GM content. We surveyed 932 U.S. primary grocery shoppers and conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with poultry product options. Using a Mixed Logit model and supplemental cognitive data from Query Theory, we find that rural individualists are more accepting of GM-labeled products. At the same time, urban communitarians show a stronger preference for non-GM labels. These results offer insight into …

Measuring The Determinants Of Women's Empowerment In Agricultural Index In Bangladesh: Application Of The Structural Equation Modeling Approach, Paresh Kumar Sarma, Mohammad Jahanghir Alam, Ismat Ara Begum, Dilshad Zahan Ethen, Farzana Yeasmin, Lin Crase, Andrew M. Mckenzie

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

The study investigates the determinants of women's empowerment utilizing data from the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey 2018, specifically through the construction of the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index. Using structural equation modeling, it assesses how various indicators such as decision-making, freedom of mobility, access to agricultural extension services, group membership, and birth control decisions contribute to women's empowerment outcomes. This index is based on decision-making regarding production, resources, income, leadership, time use, and gender parity sub-index. The study employs structural equation modeling to explore the association among key indicators of women's empowerment, including decision-making, freedom of mobility, access to agricultural …

The Effects Of Extreme Weather On Rural Transportation Infrastructure And Crop Prices Along The Lower Mississippi River, James Mitchell, Hunter D. Biram

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Extreme weather events are worsening the fragile rural infrastructure in the United States, impacting trade flows of agricultural products. The Mississippi River, vital for transporting agricultural commodities, reached historic lows during the 2022 and 2023 fall harvests, increasing transportation costs and lowering crop prices. This paper estimates the cost of these drought events by analyzing Arkansas soybean basis data and Mississippi River stream gauge data. Low river levels significantly weaken soybean prices, with the impact being a function of a grain market's distance to a river port. Findings have implications for public policy investment in rural infrastructure and risk management …

Summaries Of Arkansas Cotton Research 2024, Fred M. Bourland

Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station Research Series

Planted cotton acreage in Arkansas increased in 2024 to 670,000 planted acres, which was 160,000 acres more than in 2023 when Arkansas producers planted approximately 510,000 acres of cotton. A wet spring, and two hurricanes in three weeks in late summer/early fall led to a slight decrease in harvested acres that culminated in a final number of 640,000 (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=ARKANSAS). Producers harvested 640,00 acres of cotton, which ranked third nationally, behind Texas and Georgia (https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/k3569432s/nk324887m/qn59s0097/cropan25.pdf). The total harvested acreage is the greatest amount since 680,000 acres in 2011. The average cotton yield in Arkansas in 2024 was …

Fractured Inheritance: Quantifying The Economic Impact Of Heir’S Property On Arkansas Farmers, Makenzie Mcjunkins

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Heir’s property arises when the original owner still holds the title despite their passing, and ownership is distributed among their heirs. This was driven by barriers to retaining land ownership and access to legal support in predominantly African American populations in the early 20th century. This approach allowed land to remain in the original owner's name while granting continued ownership to future generations without formal paperwork. Additionally, allowing limited land access, land management, and disparities in capital access compared to property with direct ownership rights. This analysis examines how modern heir’s property impacts agricultural returns. This study develops a conceptual …

International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2024–2034, A. Durand-Morat, W. Mulimbi

AAES Research Reports and Research Bulletins

• Global rice consumption is projected to exceed global rice production for most of the coming decade, with stocks playing a crucial role in balancing the global market over the projected period.

• The projected growth in production is almost exclusively due to productivity gains.

• The projected global rice consumption is growing, driven mainly by population growth. However, the average global per capita rice consumption is estimated to increase slowly in the coming decade due to a regain in per capita consumption in Asia, the largest rice-consuming region worldwide.

• The international prices of long-grain and medium-grain rice are …

The Evolving Changes In The Regionalization Of Export Bans On U.S. Poultry Trade From The 2015 And 2022 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Events, Kylie A. Roesler

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

As food security becomes a growing concern worldwide in a trading system dominated by globalization, the safeguarding of a bio-secure food system is at risk. One of the greatest risks to this stability of the system is, highly pathogenic avian influenza or HPAI which is growing in frequency and impact. Therefore, the global response to disease events is evolving into a newfound understanding of disease prevalence across the animal protein industries. This study will analyze the 2022 HPAI event in the United States regarding the regionalization of restrictions imposed by trading partners accounting for trade agreements executed. The examination of …

Livestock Risk Protection Basis Risk For Feeder Cattle, Bryce Anderson

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Recent government subsidies make livestock risk protection (LRP) insurance an affordable price risk management tool for many U.S. cattle producers. LRP insurance triggers a loss when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Feeder Cattle Index falls below the selected coverage price. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is a 7-day weighted average of feeder cattle prices in 12 states. This paper determines if LRP policy holders who produce feeder cattle in states whose feeder cattle prices are not included in the CME Feeder Cattle Index are exposed to excess basis risk. To do this, we use a hedonic regression model to determine …

Assessing The Implicit Prices Of Health And Wellness Product Attributes In Pet Food: A Hedonic Analysis Approach, Lonnie Hobbs Jr., Andrew Anderson

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Here we examine product attributes present in dry dog food to show there exist potential price premiums and discounts associated with health and wellness attributes in dry dog food. The findings indicate price premiums are associated with attributes related to digestion and allergy care. Pricing discounts are found to be associated with immune support and dental attributes. The results of this study are anticipated to be a starting point for more sophisticated and dynamic analysis of pricing and willingness-to-pay studies in the pet food industry.

Vitamin A Fortification: Key Factors And Considerations For Effective Implementation, Joohun Han, Alvaro Durand-Morat, Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Vitamin A fortification plays a crucial role in achieving long-term economic development in developing countries by supporting the growth and development of human capital. While fortification programs involve a range of nutritional, agricultural, economic, and political considerations, there is a lack of a comprehensive overview of the topic in the literature. Our review highlights the importance of holistic approach in designing fortification programs: the effective program should consider (a) the agronomic, economic, and administrative capability of the target regions in regard of fortification method and vehicle to maximize effectiveness; (b) strategies to ensure the producers' and consumers' adoption to enhance …

Racial Differences In Knowledge, Attitudes Toward Vaccination, And Risk Practices Around Lyme Disease In The United States, Madiha Shafquat, Niyati Patel, Brandon Mcfadden, James H. Stark, L. Hannah Gould

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Introduction Lyme disease (LD) incidence in the United States is highly regional, with most cases occurring in 16 high-incidence jurisdictions. LD incidence and severity of disease have been found to vary by race. This study describes racial differences in knowledge, attitudes toward vaccination, and risk practices related to LD.Methods Four web-based surveys were conducted with adults and caregivers of children in high-incidence jurisdictions and 10 states neighboring them. Respondents were recruited via an established online panel to represent the general population. Self-reported race was pooled into 3 categories: 'White', 'Black or African American', and 'Other' for analysis. Analyses were conducted …

Wayne E. Sabbe Arkansas Soil Fertility Studies 2024, Nathan A. Slaton

Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station Research Series

Rapid technological changes in crop management and production require that the research efforts be presented in an expeditious manner. The contributions of soil fertility and fertilizers are major production factors in all Arkansas crops. The studies described within will allow producers to compare their practices with the university’s research efforts. Additionally, soil-test data and fertilizer sales are presented to allow comparisons among years, crops, and other areas within Arkansas.

Understanding Dairy Livestock Farmers' Intention To Adopt Sociocultural Dynamics For Food Security Using The Theory Of Planned Behaviour, Paresh Kumar Sarma, Mohammad Jahanghir Alam, Samiha Sarwar, Sadika Haque, Golam Rabbani, Ismat Ara Begum, Andrew M. Mckenzie

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study examines the impact of socio-cultural dynamics (SCD) on food and nutrition security in dairy farming households. Recognizing the role of cultural practices, social networks, and access to resources in shaping food security, we emphasize the need to incorporate these factors into interventions for dairy farming. Using a systematic random sampling technique, we surveyed 400 households in the Rajbari District of Bangladesh in 2024 and analyzed the data using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM model). The results revealed a positive association between the intention to adopt socio-cultural dynamics and food …

Lumpy Heterogeneity In Groundwater Service Values And Time Preferences, Kent F. Kovacs, Heather Snell, Brandon R. Mcfadden, Rodolfo M. Nayga Jr.

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

From a choice experiment about groundwater management, we consider time preferences and groundwater service values through sociodemographic characteristics using a model called the discounted latent class model. A policy-motivated latent class has a higher income, greater familiarity with an aquifer, and more concern for the risks that groundwater decline poses to people and the environment. A business-as-usual latent class has a conservative ideology. Exponential discounting is preferred, and the discount rate is larger for the policy group than the business-as-usual group. Other models we use include the discounted mixed logit model and the discounted logit-mixed logit model.

Determinants Of Market Participation Among Milk Producers In Kyrgyzstan, Akhmadjon Nurullaev, Eunchun Park, Bruce L. Ahrendsen, Stijn Speelman, Lawson Connor

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Numerous studies have been conducted to comprehend the economic importance of market participation for producers. However, a significant gap remains, particularly in Central Asia. This study assesses market participation drivers for Kyrgyzstan's milk producers using the Life in Kyrgyzstan dataset, encompassing a comprehensive nationwide farm-level survey. Findings reveal that household assets boost market entry and sales volume, whereas distance from markets discourages participation but can increase sales for active sellers, reflecting transportation cost strategies. The insights inform policy interventions benefiting rural small-scale milk producers in Central Asian countries that share similar cultural backgrounds.

Vulnerability And Adaptation In Flood-Prone Ecosystems Of Bangladesh: A Case Study Of Rice Farming Households, Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman, Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar, Md Jahangir Kabir, Md Shajedur Rahaman, Jatish C. Biswas, Md Abdullah Aziz, Mohammad Ariful Islam, Md Abdullah Al Mamun, Niaz Md Farhat Rahman, Andrew M. Mckenzie

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Floods in Bangladesh significantly impact rice production, a vital element of food security. While regional flood effects have been extensively studied, the specific impacts on rice, the country's primary staple, remain underexplored. This study assesses the effects of floods on rice production, availability, and prices, alongside identifying household vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. Using both quantitative and qualitative data from secondary sources and interviews with farmers, we analyzed how floods affect rice cultivation and market dynamics. Our findings showed that floods predominantly affect wet season Aman rice, temporarily disrupting cultivation, national yield, and market prices. However, the adoption of stress-resistant varieties …

The Adoption Of Biosecurity Measures And Its Influencing Factors In Bangladeshi Layer Farms, Mohammadyar Jahangir Alam, Ismat Ara Begum, Md Al Mamun, Md Asif Iqbal, Andrew M. Mckenzie

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

Developing nations like Bangladesh are particularly vulnerable to poultry diseases, notably Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Adopting biosecurity approaches that assist farms in disease control and prevention can decrease the industry-wide dissemination of infectious diseases. In light of these factors, this study was carried out to investigate the implementation of biosecurity practices on layer farms in Bangladesh. Using a stratified random sample method, a total of 315 layer farms from fourteen upazilas (sub-districts) in seven districts were surveyed using a semi-structured interview schedule. The study explored layer farmers' experiences with biosecurity procedures adopted on farms that included equipment, employees, and visitors. …