Risk Analysis Commons^™

Estimating Flood Magnitudes Of Ungauged Urban Msimbazi River Catchment In Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, Patrick Valimba Dr

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

More often daily climate data have been used in hydrological models to estimate flood flows in small data scarce urban and rural catchments where flow peaking and recession are quick within short periods of few hours. This study assesses magnitudes of error of using daily climate data to simulate flood flow hydrographs of a small urban river catchment, Msimbazi River. Spot discharge measurements were available for Apr-May 2014 and Mar May 2015 periods.10-minutes climate records were available at one station, daily temperatures at two stations while daily rainfall records at several stations within the catchment. Visual analysis characterise rainfall events …

Design And Test Of An Autonomy Monitoring Service To Detect Divergent Behaviors On Unmanned Aerial Systems, Loay Y. Almannaei

Theses and Dissertations

Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) support many critical missions in the United State Air Force (USAF). Monitoring abnormal behavior is one of many responsibilities of the operator during a mission. Some behaviors are hard to be detect by an operator, especially when flying one or more autonomous vehicles; as such, detections require a high level of attention and focus to flight parameters. In this research, a monitoring system and its algorithm are designed and tested for a target fixed-wing UAV. The Autonomy Monitoring Service (AMS) compares the real vehicle or simulated Vehicle with a similar simulated vehicle using Software …

An Analysis Of A Hurricane Loss Model, Validation From Tyndall Afb, And Applications For The Air Force, Nestor Hernandez

Theses and Dissertations

Recent reconstruction of infrastructure and its associated cost due to hurricanes justify research into hurricane loss models that can provide a more robust cost estimate. Academic research indicates that hurricane disasters are becoming more frequent and are becoming costlier. This research intends to explore hurricane loss models used by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Risk Management Solution (RMS) and Florida State University (FSU). Within the literature review, key components of hurricane loss models were identified. These models and the key components were explored in order to help bring an understanding of loss estimation. The research found that the implementation of …

Risk Assessment In Waste Sampling Activity For A Selected Food Industry, Razali Nurul Syazreen

Student Works (2020-2029)

Waste sampling is one of the main activities during environmental audit. This activity has been estimated as a non-risky activity and lead to inadequate risk assessment in the activity. The purpose of this study is to create a safer workplace for enforcement body in general and DOE officer in specific during waste sampling activity. Main objectives are to identify the hazards, further assess the hazards and determine the control measure to reduce the hazards. Observation and on-the-job training have been conducted to three food industry located in Shah Alam to identify the hazards. Structured surveys were conducted with 293 participants …

Comparison Of Different Power System Resilience Assessment Methods, Jian How Sam Chan

Student Works (2020-2029)

Climate change has been given significant attention in recent times, calling for more ideas to address issues stemming from extreme weather events. Until climate change can be slowed down and ultimately be reversed, it is an imminent objective to find solutions for the mitigation and prevention of the effects of catastrophic weather events. History has a record of the devastation caused by such events on electrical power infrastructures. While electrical power systems have conventionally been designed and built to weather everyday conditions, confronting cataclysmic high-impact, low-probability events will require more resilient attributes. Power systems are often deemed as the backbone …

Backing Up Into Advocacy: The Case Of Smartphone Driver Distraction, Robert Rosenberger

The Journal of Sociotechnical Critique

For the last decade, I’ve been studying the topic of the driving impairment of smartphones. While this began as an exclusively academic project, it has increasingly compelled public engagement. One example of this came in an opinion piece I wrote in 2018 in response to a new traffic law. I take the opportunity here to fill out the academic backstory of this particular op-ed, reflect on how this larger project has evolved to include an unanticipated public-facing edge, and abstract some lessons about public writing.

Intruder Preference And Route Selection: A Gis Data Approach, Griffin Mathews

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested an Engineering Research and Development Center study incorporating modeling and simulation to determine the selection, amount, and optimal location of sensor suites along the U.S. Border. The study objective is to maximize the probability of detection and apprehension of illegal elements attempting to enter. A study on intruders and their preferences were conducted to create an intruder preference value map to determine the preferred intruder routes taken after crossing the border. The results of this research were integrated into another study on the selection and simulation of sensor suites.

Intruder context and preferences …

Portable Calorimeter For Fire Experiments, Kayla Collins, Kara Hewson, Christopher Chen, Joel Keddie

Mechanical Engineering

Executive Summary

An oxygen consumption calorimeter works by measuring the heat release rate of a burning substance. This value is calculated by measuring the oxygen and byproducts in smoke from afire.In order to get these values two types of sensors were used. A non-dispersive infrared sensor (NDIR) that measured CO and CO2 and a zirconium O2 sensor were used to find their respective gas concentrations.The design to calculate the heat release rate is focused on maximizing sensor accuracy and portability while simplifying the manufacturing by using off-the-shelf components. The goal included making the system simple to recreate and package in …

Qlime-A Quadratic Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanation Approach, Steven Bramhall, Hayley Horn, Michael Tieu, Nibhrat Lohia

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we introduce a proof of concept that addresses the assumption and limitation of linear local boundaries by Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), a popular technique used to add interpretability and explainability to black box models. LIME is a versatile explainer capable of handling different types of data and models. At the local level, LIME creates a linear relationship for a given prediction through generated sample points to present feature importance. We redefine the linear relationships presented by LIME as quadratic relationships and expand its flexibility in non-linear cases and improve the accuracy of feature interpretations. We coin …

Data-Driven Investment Decisions In P2p Lending: Strategies Of Integrating Credit Scoring And Profit Scoring, Yan Wang

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop and discuss several loan evaluation methods to guide the investment decisions for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. In evaluating loans, credit scoring and profit scoring are the two widely utilized approaches. Credit scoring aims at minimizing the risk while profit scoring aims at maximizing the profit. This dissertation addresses the strengths and weaknesses of each scoring method by integrating them in various ways in order to provide the optimal investment suggestions for different investors. Before developing the methods for loan evaluation at the individual level, we applied the state-of-the-art method called the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) …

Using A Field Mill Climatology To Assess All Lightning Launch Commit Criteria, Shane C. Gardner

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the danger and cost of lightning striking a space vehicle, the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) balances between the mission of launching and cessation thereof to minimize the risk of a lightning strike. This process is mediated through a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). To date, no empirical modeling of these rules has been established. To alleviate this shortcoming, this thesis uses the voltage readings of the surrounding CCAFS surface field mills to establish the viability of modeling the entirety of the LLCC rules statistically. Converting approximately 312,000,000 field mill voltage readings …

An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This research compares the efficacy of subject matter expert (SME) elicitation methods to other cost estimation methods using a development and production dataset provided by AFLCMC/FZC. First, by using descriptive statistics to evaluate low versus high amount of the respective cost estimation methods by analyzing the means of percent cost growth for both groups. Next, this research involved using a statistics-based approach to investigate whether SME based cost estimating methods have an associated relationship to percent change of Program Acquisition Unit Costs (PAUC), which will be our proxy variable to cost growth. Using a pooled cross-sectional OLS regression analysis model …

Does The Age Of An It Executive Impact Adoption Levels Of Cloud Computing Services?, Marcus L. Smith

Faculty Publications

This author researched previously the personal decision factors considered by information technology (IT) executives when making the cloud computing services adoptionchoice. The conclusions in that work (Smith, Jr., 2016) supported four hypotheses, namely, (a) advancement, recognition and satisfaction from accomplishments, (b) top management support, (c) diminishment of personal image, and (d) a pattern of technology readiness have a positive influence on business intentions to adopt cloud computing services. Interestingly, a fifth hypothesis, diminishment of personal image, was found to have a negative influence on business intentions. The relationship between age of the survey respondents and adoption levels was highlighted in …

Optimization Of Airfield Parking And Fuel Asset Dispersal To Maximize Survivability And Mission Capability Level, Ryley R. H. Paquette

Theses and Dissertations

While the US focus for the majority of the past two decades has been on combatting insurgency and promoting stability in Southwest Asia, strategic focus is beginning to shift toward concerns of conflict with a near-peer state. Such conflict brings with it the risk of ballistic missile attack on air bases. With 26 conflicts worldwide in the past 100 years including attacks on air bases, new doctrine and modeling capacity are needed to enable the Department of Defense to continue use of vulnerable bases during conflict involving ballistic missiles. Several models have been developed to date for Air Force strategic …

Vêtements De Protection Chimique Contre Les Aérosols Solides : Performances Des Matériaux Sous Différentes Conditions D'Exposition Et Caractérisation Des Déterminants, Ludovic Tuduri, Loïc Wingert, Yves Cloutier, Stéphane Hallé, Jean Luc Giraudel, Ali Bahloul, Dominic Tessier, Patricia Dolez

Rapports de recherche scientifique

Historiquement, les mesures jugées prioritaires en hygiène industrielle ont été orientées vers la prévention de l’exposition par les voies respiratoires. Des centaines de valeurs limites d’exposition ont ainsi pu être établies à partir de méthodes d’évaluation quantitative du risque.

La part de l'exposition cutanée dans l’exposition professionnelle aux substances toxiques est pourtant significative. Le National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) estime à 13 millions le nombre de travailleurs exposés à des produits chimiques par la peau avec des coûts annuels induits par le traitement des troubles cutanés évalués à un milliard de dollars. Il n’existe pas de données …

Predicting Pilot Misperception Of Runway Excursion Risk Through Machine Learning Algorithms Of Recorded Flight Data, Edwin Vincent Odisho Ii

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The research used predictive models to determine pilot misperception of runway excursion risk associated with unstable approaches. The Federal Aviation Administration defined runway excursion as a veer-off or overrun of the runway surface. The Federal Aviation Administration also defined a stable approach as an aircraft meeting the following criteria: (a) on target approach airspeed, (b) correct attitude, (c) landing configuration, (d) nominal descent angle/rate, and (e) on a straight flight path to the runway touchdown zone. Continuing an unstable approach to landing was defined as Unstable Approach Risk Misperception in this research. A review of the literature revealed that an …

Developing A Taxonomy For Success In Commercial Pilot Behaviors, Kristine Kiernan, David S. Cross, Mark Scharf Ph.D.

Publications

Human error has been well studied in aviation. However, less is known about the ways in which human performance maintains and contributes to aviation safety. The lack of data on positive human performance prevents consideration of the full range of human behaviors when making safety and risk management decisions. The concept of resilient performance provides a framework to understand and classify positive human behaviors. Through interviews with commercial airline pilots, this study examined routine airline operations to evaluate the concept of resilient performance and to develop a taxonomy for success. The four enablers of resilient performance, anticipation, learning, responding, and …

Liability Of The Structural Engineer: Establishing, Quantifying, And Managing Risks, Justin Thomas Ittmann

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Liability is an important topic to all practicing professionals—including practicing engineers. However, the topic of liability does not receive the necessary attention required relative to other professions. Further, engineers that desire to learn more about liability in relation to their practice do not have many university options within an engineering curriculum or from outside materials available to a non-legally trained engineer. The goal of the study is to provide a comprehensive overview of liability directed towards an intelligent practicing engineer, while avoiding unnecessary over-simplification of the material. This study initially provides an in depth survey of the legal standard of …

The Impact Of Human Assurance On Satellite Operations, Holly Handley, Dan Heimerdinger, Unal Tatar (Ed.), Adrian V. Gheorghe (Ed.), Omer F. Keskin (Ed.), Jean Muylaert (Ed.)

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Mission assurance is a method to guarantee mission success against a known set of risks; mission assurance is generally represented as a probability against a threshold of acceptable performance. Human assurance can be considered as the likelihood of acceptable operator performance given a set of conditions that include the operator, the system, and the environment. Standard mission assurance models tend to assume a qualified crew, but do not include other aspects of the internal or external environment that may impact the reliability of the human operator. A human assurance model can be created that allows the exploration of the variability …

Systemic Analysis Of The Use Of Artificial Intelligence (Ai) In Regulating Terrorist Content On Social Media Ecosystem Using Functional Dependency Network Analysis (Fdna), Alaina Roman, C. Ariel Pinto

OUR Journal: ODU Undergraduate Research Journal

This research is a systemic analysis of emerging risks to the use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in regulating terrorist content on social media ecosystems using Functional Dependency Network Analysis (FDNA), a proven system-design-and-analysis tool). The research has three phases: 1) framing the problem by identifying and describing AI ecosystem elements as intended, implied and explicit objectives, discernible attributes, and performance indictors; 2) describing the idealized problem-solved scenario, which includes detailing ‘success’ states of the ecosystem; and 3) systemic risk analysis including identifying failure scenarios for each element and establishing causalities among elemental attributes leading to failure scenarios. This research contributes toward …

Webexpo : Vers Une Meilleure Interprétation Des Mesures D'Exposition Professionnelle Aux Substances Chimiques Sur Les Lieux De Travail, Jérôme Lavoué, Lawrence Joseph, Tracy L. Kirkham, France Labrèche, Gautier Mater, Frédéric Clerc

Rapports de recherche scientifique

Une grande partie de l'activité des hygiénistes du travail consiste à mesurer les niveaux d'exposition professionnelle des travailleurs. La plupart des rapports d'évaluation de l'exposition font état d'une importante variabilité spatiale et temporelle quant à l'intensité de l'exposition, laquelle fluctue souvent du simple au décuple en dépit de conditions apparemment similaires. Il en résulte depuis toujours un défi de taille en ce qui concerne l'interprétation des niveaux mesurés par rapport aux valeurs limites d’exposition professionnelle (VLEP). Il existe désormais un cadre consensuel – issu d'une élaboration progressive au cours des deux dernières décennies – concernant l'analyse des niveaux d’exposition par …

Webexpo: Towards A Better Interpretation Of Measurements Of Occupational Exposure To Chemicals In The Workplace, Jérôme Lavoué, Lawrence Joseph, Tracy L. Kirkham, France Labrèche, Gautier Mater, Frédéric Clerc

Rapports de recherche scientifique

Une grande partie de l'activité des hygiénistes du travail consiste à mesurer les niveaux d'exposition professionnelle des travailleurs. La plupart des rapports d'évaluation de l'exposition font état d'une importante variabilité spatiale et temporelle quant à l'intensité de l'exposition, laquelle fluctue souvent du simple au décuple en dépit de conditions apparemment similaires. Il en résulte depuis toujours un défi de taille en ce qui concerne l'interprétation des niveaux mesurés par rapport aux valeurs limites d’exposition professionnelle (VLEP). Il existe désormais un cadre consensuel – issu d'une élaboration progressive au cours des deux dernières décennies – concernant l'analyse des niveaux d’exposition par …

Air Quality Assessment Due To Particulate Matter (Pm2.5 And Pm10) In Three Indian Cities (Delhi, Kolkata And Guwahati) And Implication On Health, Abhishek Dutta

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study aimed to understand the level of air pollution in three Indian cities, i.e., Delhi, Kolkata, and Guwahati, evaluate the predictive ability of multiple linear regression (MLR) forecast models and assess the association between air pollution and daily hospital visits for the respiratory diseases (ICD-10, J00-J99). This study found that the mean value of PM concentrations for 2016-2018 was substantially higher than standard in all three cities. During COVID-19 in 2019-2020, air pollution compared control measurement, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO were reduced drastically for Delhi but O3 and SO2 took an upward surge. Frequency analysis indicated winter season …

Safety Concepts For Every Ride: A Statistical Ensemble Simulation To Mitigate Rotational Falls In Eventing Cross Country, Shannon Wood

Theses and Dissertations--Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Rotational falls are the leading cause of death and serious injury in the equestrian sport of eventing. Previous studies to develop safety devices used physical models representing one or at most several physical situations leading to different designs and no common understanding. In this thesis, a statistical ensemble model is developed and applied to generate and evaluate 10,000 different situations that might potentially lead to rotational falls. For accurate statistical representation of the horse and rider inertia distributions, measurements of over 400 training or competing horses and riders were recorded and incorporated. Video was recorded of 218 total competitors approaching …

Expanded Predictive Equation For Dc Arc-Flash Incident Energy In 125v Battery Systems, Austin Gaunce

Theses and Dissertations--Electrical and Computer Engineering

Arc-flash is a dangerous phenomenon that can occur during an arcing fault in an electrical system. People nearby may be subjected to extreme heat, light, pressure, and sound. Research regarding arc-flash has focused primarily on AC arc-flash due to the prevalence of AC electricity in the grid. However, the grid has begun to integrate more DC electrical sources as a result of decentralization efforts and environmental concerns. The increased proliferation of DC electrical sources demands research into DC arc-flash to assess the hazard as low-voltage DC sources have already become commonplace. Some DC arc-flash models have been produced to estimate …

Defects Analysis Of Seat Belt Tensioner Cast Body, Artur Soroczński, Piotr Czyżewski, Krzysztof Rechowicz

VMASC Publications

The article presents an analysis of the implementation of a selected element of the traveler safety system used in road transport. The results of metallographic tests were presented, and the state of stress introduced to the casting by means of forming the element by means of plastic forming was analyzed. An analysis of the manufacturing process was carried out indicating the risks that may lead to cracks in the material structure. Possible causes of founding defects were pointed out and possible technological solutions were pointed out in order to avoid them.

Internet Of Things For Sustainability: Perspectives In Privacy, Cybersecurity, And Future Trends, Abdul Salam

Faculty Publications

In the sustainability IoT, the cybersecurity risks to things, sensors, and monitoring systems are distinct from the conventional networking systems in many aspects. The interaction of sustainability IoT with the physical world phenomena (e.g., weather, climate, water, and oceans) is mostly not found in the modern information technology systems. Accordingly, actuation, the ability of these devices to make changes in real world based on sensing and monitoring, requires special consideration in terms of privacy and security. Moreover, the energy efficiency, safety, power, performance requirements of these device distinguish them from conventional computers systems. In this chapter, the cybersecurity approaches towards …

Heterogeneous Uncertainty Quantification For Reliability-Based Design Optimization, Mingyang Li

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Uncertainty is inherent to real-world engineering systems, and reliability analysis aims at quantitatively measuring the probability that engineering systems successfully perform the intended functionalities under various sources of uncertainties. In this dissertation, heterogeneous uncertainties including input variation, data uncertainty, simulation model uncertainty, and time-dependent uncertainty have been taken into account in reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). The input variation inherently exists in practical engineering system and can be characterized by statistical modeling methods. Data uncertainty occurs when surrogate models are constructed to replace the simulations or experiments based on a set of training data, while simulation model uncertainty …

Mental Workload Assessment Among Healthcare Workers During Pandemic Covid-19 At Hospital Tunku Azizah, Mohd Basari Mohd 'Aizat

Student Works (2020-2029)

Workload is the amount of work an individual has to do. There is a distinction between the actual amount of work and the individual's perception of the workload. In addition, with current pandemic situation, definitely causes an increased workload among healthcare workers. Somehow, front-liners are doing their best in battling COVID-19 to protect publics from any adverse effects by this aggressive identified Coronavirus. The purpose of this study is to determine level of mental workload and its relationship on mental health status and job satisfaction among healthcare workers. Scope of this study involving medical laboratory workers in Pathology Department Hospital …

Microplastics In Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plant: Quantification, Identification And Ecological Risk Assessment, Sujarat Saiwaree

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are one of the significant pathways of microplastics (MPs) entering the environment. Thus, information regarding this issue is still requisite in Thailand. In this study, wastewater and sludge samples were collected from various treatment units of industrial WWTP in dry season (February 2020) and wet season (July 2020). The MP particles were identified by size, shape, and polymer types. From the wastewater, MPs were detected in the highest amounts after the aeration unit (134.35 ± 20.79 particles/L) in dry season sample. In addition, sludge contained relatively low MPs. The size fraction in wastewater varied, but in …