Risk Analysis Commons^™

Decision Analytical Methods For Robust Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty, Mehmet Umit Taner

Doctoral Dissertations

Deep uncertainties resulting from climate change, demographic pressures, and rapidly evolving socioeconomic conditions are challenging the way that water planners design and operate large-scale infrastructure systems. Conventionally, water infrastructures have been developed using stationary methods, assuming that the underlying uncertainties can be derived from historical data or experience. However, these methods are less useful under deeply uncertain climate and socioeconomic conditions, in which the future can be substantially different from the past and cannot be expressed by well-defined probability distributions. The recognition of deep uncertainties in long-term water resources planning has led to the development of “decision-analytical” frameworks that do …

Flight Risk Management And Crew Reserve Optimization, Ying Zhang

Doctoral Dissertations

There are two key concerns in the development process of aviation. One is safety, and the other is cost. An airline running with high safety and low cost must be the most competitive one in the market. This work investigates two research efforts respectively relevant to these two concerns.

When building support of a real time Flight Risk Assessment and Mitigation System (FRAMS), a sequential multi-stage approach is developed. The whole risk management process is considered in order to improve the safety of each flight by integrating AHP and FTA technique to describe the framework of all levels of risks …

Integrating Disparate Nuclear Data Sources For Improved Predictive Maintenance Modeling: Maintenance-Based Prognostics For Long-Term Equipment Operation, Zachary Allen Welz

Doctoral Dissertations

The United States (US) nuclear industry is one of the most heavily regulated businesses in the world, creating a culture of world-class design, operation, and maintenance. In an article published on modern maintenance technologies, Terrence OHanlon (past Chief Asset Manager for Reliabilityweb.com) stated, “world class companies often devote up to 50 percent of their entire maintenance resources to condition based monitoring and the planned work that is required as a result of the findings” [1]. One would expect US nuclear power plants to constantly upgrade, improve, and expand their operations and maintenance departments and tactics. Since the early 1990s, US …

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …