Risk Analysis Commons^™

Analysis Of Physicochemical Properties And Terrestrial Dynamics Of Mechanically Formed Micro-Nano Scaled Particles From Agricultural Plastic Mulches, Anton Friedrich Astner

Doctoral Dissertations

Release of microplastics (MPs) and nanoplastics (NPs) into agricultural fields is of great concern due to their reported ecotoxicity to organisms that provide beneficial service to the soil such as earthworms, and the potential ability of MPs and NPs to enter the food chain. Most fundamental studies of the fate and transport of plastic particulates in terrestrial environments employ idealized MP materials as models, such as monodisperse polystyrene spheres. In contrast, plastics that reside in agricultural soils consist of polydisperse fragments resulting from degraded films employed in agriculture. There exists a need for more representative materials in fundamental studies of …

Forecasting Nigeria's Electricity Demand And Energy Efficiency Potential Under Climate Uncertainty, Olawale Olabisi

Doctoral Dissertations

The increasing population and socio-economic growth of Nigeria, coupled with the current, unmet electricity demand, requires the need for power supply facilities expansion. Of all Nigeria’s electricity consumption by sector, the residential sector is the largest and growing at a very fast rate. To meet this growing demand, an accurate estimation of the demand into the future that will guide policy makers to adequately plan for the expansion of electricity supply and distribution, and energy efficiency standards and labeling must be made. To achieve this, a residential electricity demand forecast model that can correctly predict future demand and guide the …

Modeling Portfolios Of Low Carbon Energy Generation Under Deep Uncertainty, Franklyn Kanyako

Doctoral Dissertations

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly every country pledge through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) increased adoption of low carbon energy technologies in their energy system. However, allocating investments to different low carbon energy technologies under rising demand for energy and budget constraints, uncertain technical change in these technologies involves maneuvering significant uncertainties among experts, models, and decision-makers. We examine the interactions of low carbon energy sources (LCES) under the condition of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty directly impacts the understanding of the role of low carbon energy technologies in climate change mitigation and how much R&D investment should be allocated …

Human Fatigue Predictions In Complex Aviation Crew Operational Impact Conditions, Suresh Rangan

Doctoral Dissertations

In this last decade, several regulatory frameworks across the world in all modes of transportation had brought fatigue and its risk management in operations to the forefront. Of all transportation modes air travel has been the safest means of transportation. Still as part of continuous improvement efforts, regulators are insisting the operators to adopt strong fatigue science and its foundational principles to reinforce safety risk assessment and management. Fatigue risk management is a data driven system that finds a realistic balance between safety and productivity in an organization. This work discusses the effects of mathematical modeling of fatigue and its …

Decision Analytical Methods For Robust Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty, Mehmet Umit Taner

Doctoral Dissertations

Deep uncertainties resulting from climate change, demographic pressures, and rapidly evolving socioeconomic conditions are challenging the way that water planners design and operate large-scale infrastructure systems. Conventionally, water infrastructures have been developed using stationary methods, assuming that the underlying uncertainties can be derived from historical data or experience. However, these methods are less useful under deeply uncertain climate and socioeconomic conditions, in which the future can be substantially different from the past and cannot be expressed by well-defined probability distributions. The recognition of deep uncertainties in long-term water resources planning has led to the development of “decision-analytical” frameworks that do …

Flight Risk Management And Crew Reserve Optimization, Ying Zhang

Doctoral Dissertations

There are two key concerns in the development process of aviation. One is safety, and the other is cost. An airline running with high safety and low cost must be the most competitive one in the market. This work investigates two research efforts respectively relevant to these two concerns.

When building support of a real time Flight Risk Assessment and Mitigation System (FRAMS), a sequential multi-stage approach is developed. The whole risk management process is considered in order to improve the safety of each flight by integrating AHP and FTA technique to describe the framework of all levels of risks …

Integrating Disparate Nuclear Data Sources For Improved Predictive Maintenance Modeling: Maintenance-Based Prognostics For Long-Term Equipment Operation, Zachary Allen Welz

Doctoral Dissertations

The United States (US) nuclear industry is one of the most heavily regulated businesses in the world, creating a culture of world-class design, operation, and maintenance. In an article published on modern maintenance technologies, Terrence OHanlon (past Chief Asset Manager for Reliabilityweb.com) stated, “world class companies often devote up to 50 percent of their entire maintenance resources to condition based monitoring and the planned work that is required as a result of the findings” [1]. One would expect US nuclear power plants to constantly upgrade, improve, and expand their operations and maintenance departments and tactics. Since the early 1990s, US …

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …

Fault Diagnosis And Failure Prognostics Of Lithium-Ion Battery Based On Least Squares Support Vector Machine And Memory Particle Filter Framework, Mohammed Ali Lskaafi

Doctoral Dissertations

123456A novel data driven approach is developed for fault diagnosis and remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics for lithium-ion batteries using Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Memory-Particle Filter (M-PF). Unlike traditional data-driven models for capacity fault diagnosis and failure prognosis, which require multidimensional physical characteristics, the proposed algorithm uses only two variables: Energy Efficiency (EE), and Work Temperature. The aim of this novel framework is to improve the accuracy of incipient and abrupt faults diagnosis and failure prognosis. First, the LSSVM is used to generate residual signal based on capacity fade trends of the Li-ion batteries. Second, adaptive threshold …

Developing An Optimal Model For Infant Home Visitation, Isaac Atuahene

Doctoral Dissertations

The United States, Great Britain, Denmark, Canada and many other countries have accepted home visitation (HV) as a promising strategy for interventions for infants after births and for their mothers. Prior HV studies have focused on theoretical foundations, evaluations of programs, cost/benefit analysis and cost estimation by using hospital/payer/insurance data to prove its effectiveness and high cost. As governments and private organizations continue to fund HVs, it is an opportune time to develop and formulate operations research (OR) models of HV coverage, quality and cost so they might be used in program implementation as done for adult home healthcare (HHC) …

Interpreting, Stephanie Jo Kent

Doctoral Dissertations

What do community interpreting for the Deaf in western societies, conference interpreting for the European Parliament, and language brokering in international management have in common? Academic research and professional training have historically emphasized the linguistic and cognitive challenges of interpreting, neglecting or ignoring the social aspects that structure communication. All forms of interpreting are inherently social; they involve relationships among at least three people and two languages. The contexts explored here, American Sign Language/English interpreting and spoken language interpreting within the European Parliament, show that simultaneous interpreting involves attitudes, norms and values about intercultural communication that overemphasize information and discount …