Risk Analysis Commons^™

System Safety Modeling Of Alternative Geofencing Configurations For Small Uas, James T. Luxhoj

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As is well known, the integration of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) or “drones” into the National Airspace System (NAS) has captured significant industry, academic, regulatory and media attention. For sUAS that typically fly low and slow, the possibility of a mid-air collision with a nearby general aviation aircraft needs to be studied from a system safety perspective to identify possible hazards and to assess mitigations. The Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) is a first-generation socio-technical model that uses a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology to integrate possible hazards to assess a non-linear safety risk metric. Using inductive logic, the …

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes, an …

Late Morning Concurrent Sessions: Innovations In Aviation Technologies: Presentation: Relative Material Loss: A Methodology For Assessing Island Airport Steel Marine Bulkheads, Robert Ernsting, Constantine M. Koursaris

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

A July 2015 report from the Airports Council International – North America (ACI-NA) states “U.S. airports are long overdue for [a] major structural improvement projects. Most U.S. airports are aging, … and because of budgetary restrictions, they’re not aging well.”(Garcia and Clampet, 2015). The average US age is 40 years old with the youngest (Denver International) recently turning 20 years old. As airports continue to age, airport commissioners will struggle to find creative ways to either fund airport replacements or extend the service life of existing airport facilities (commonly referred to as service life extension projects or SLEP). Due to …

Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy

Publications

Extreme situations as wildland fires are a source of stress and pressure. In such events, decision-makers and incident commanders need to address a specific problem: how to manage time and resources to make meaningful decisions? Current models of accidents that exist to explain and manage catastrophes and disasters are inadequate and insufficient to deal with resources and time pressure due to uncertainty within a complex organization. Current incident response structures are incompetent and impotent to handle effectively a dynamic evolution of space and time in order to bring a situation back to stability adequately.

Evaluating Launch Vehicle / Reentry Vehicle (Lv/Rv) Separation Concepts, Zheng Tao, Ganghuai Wang, Tudor Masek, Thomas J. St. Clair

Space Traffic Management Conference

Launch Vehicle/Reentry Vehicle (LV/RV) operations are expected to increase across the National Airspace System (NAS) as their reliability and availability improve. LV/RV designs and the industry landscape have vastly changed since the 1960’s, and the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) methods for handling these operations need to evolve to support the expected growth. Currently, large amounts of airspace are segregated for every LV/RV operation. This increases costs for NAS users and may limit LV/RV opportunities. The FAA’s NextGen office recently proposed two more efficient separation concepts for LV/RV operations called Space Transition Corridors, and Four-Dimensional Trajectory Deconfliction. Prior safety research for …

Third Party Airport Crash Risk Model For Non-Towered Airports, Christian Salmon

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

This research leverages the objective accident data record towards an individual and societal 3^rd party “external” airport risk model for aircraft operations that crash while operating at non-towered airports.

Small aircraft, specifically Part 91, operating at non-towered airports have a crash rate estimated at 10-fold that of commercial operations. Given the nature of the typically non-towered airport, situated in close physical proximity with residential structures, this exposes residents to substantive risk of injury and death due to aircraft crashing.

A 3^rd party risk model that maps risk of injury, death and percent structural damage will enable informed decisions …

Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort

Publications

Re-forming the information stream in decision processes after severe accidents allows scientists aRecréer les flux d’information au sein des processus de décision après une catastrophe permet aux chercheurs ainsi qu’aux décideurs d’identifier les points à partir desquels une action défaillante débute ainsi que les écarts dans les processus d’information qui pourraient être corrigés afin de réduire les futurs lors de futurs incidents. Le 30 juin 2013, le feu de Yarnell Hill en Arizona (Etats-Unis) évolue rapidement dans des conditions environnementale et managériale très difficiles menant à l’effondrement de la stratégie de lutte et à la perte de dix-neuf sapeurs-pompiers de …

Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.

Using A Systemic Model Of Accident For Improving Innovative Technologies: Application And Limitations Of The Stamp Model To A Process For Treatment Of Contaminated Substances, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated materials. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have been very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment, etc.) . The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol (registered trademark), an innovative remediation process.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have become very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment etc.). The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol®, an innovative remediation process. Risk analysis is carried out through the application of STPA (STamP-based Analysis). This article is organised into three sections. The first describes the Novosol® process for …