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Articles 31 - 60 of 96
Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis
Methods For Using Manpower To Assess Usaf Strategic Risk, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii
Methods For Using Manpower To Assess Usaf Strategic Risk, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii
Theses and Dissertations
With limited personnel resource funding availability, senior US Air Force (USAF) decision makers struggle to base enterprise resource allocation from rigorous analytical traceability. There are over 240 career fields in the USAF spanning 12 enterprises. Each enterprise develops annual risk assessments by distinctive core capabilities. A core capability (e.g. Research and Development) is an enabling function necessary for the USAF to perform its mission as part of the Department of Defense (DOD). Assessing risk at the core capability is a good start to assessing risk, but is still not comprehensiveness enough. One of the twelve enterprises has linked its task …
Incentivizing Cyber Security Investment In The Power Sector Using An Extended Cyber Insurance Framework, Jack P. Rosson, Mason J. Rice, Juan Lopez Jr., R. David Fass
Incentivizing Cyber Security Investment In The Power Sector Using An Extended Cyber Insurance Framework, Jack P. Rosson, Mason J. Rice, Juan Lopez Jr., R. David Fass
Faculty Publications
Collaboration between the DHS Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and public-sector partners has revealed that a dearth of cyber-incident data combined with the unpredictability of cyber attacks have contributed to a shortfall in first-party cyber insurance protection in the critical infrastructure community. This research explores the foundations of insurance theory and adopts behavioral manipulation methods to incentivize cyber-security investment. We validate the model by applying power industry performance data from 2013-2015 to assess risk facing the industry. Results show that the model can successfully discriminate between individual power companies as well as geographic regions on the basis of risk …
Unmasking Cost Growth Behavior: A Longitudinal Study, Cory N. D'Amico, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott R. Kozlak
Unmasking Cost Growth Behavior: A Longitudinal Study, Cory N. D'Amico, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott R. Kozlak
Faculty Publications
This article examines how cost growth factors (CGF) change over a program’s acquisition life cycle for 36 Department of Defense aircraft programs. Starting from Milestone B, the authors examine CGFs at five gateways: Critical Design Review, First Flight (FF), the end of Developmental Test and Evaluation (DT&E), Initial Operational Capability, and Full Operational Capability. Each CGF is assigned a color rating based upon the program’s cost growth: Green (low), Amber (moderate), or Red (high). Significant findings include dependencies among similar CGF color ratings and cost growth occurring primarily between FF and the end of DT&E during a program’s life cycle.
Cost Versus Risk: The Policy Of Nuclear Weapon Maintenance Of Tritium Based Limited Life Components, Michael P. Mason
Cost Versus Risk: The Policy Of Nuclear Weapon Maintenance Of Tritium Based Limited Life Components, Michael P. Mason
Theses and Dissertations
This research develops a method to measure the cost to society of current maintenance policy for the exchange of tritium based limited life components within nuclear weapons. The incentives for the Department of Energy and Department of Defense which causes either a substantial cost or substantial risk to be accepted by either Department. A simulation model is created to measure the current policy and compare it to different policies in order to recommend a policy that would minimize the cost to society. The measurement of the cost to society will offer decision makers insight into the ramifications of their decisions.
Air Force Project Risk Management – The Impact Of Inconsistent Processes, Eric J. Perez
Air Force Project Risk Management – The Impact Of Inconsistent Processes, Eric J. Perez
Theses and Dissertations
On the surface, the majority of Air Force units appear to be executing some form of project risk management (PRM). Deeper investigation exposes many of the PRM practices currently in place to often be ad hoc, and as such, have the potential to poorly inform decisions when risk data is escalated to the enterprise levels of the Air Force. Resultantly, there is inconsistency between the PRM processes practiced by Air Force units. This inconsistency is an indication of risk mishandling at the project level and erroneous risk data provided at the enterprise levels of the Air Force. It may be …
Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White
Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White
Faculty Publications
The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …
Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering
Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force manages its civil infrastructure resource allocation via a two-dimensional risk model consisting of the consequence of failure and reliability. Air Force civil engineers currently use the BUILDER® Sustainment Management System to estimate and predict reliability at multiple levels within its civil infrastructure systems. Alley (2015) developed and validated a probabilistic model to calculate reliability at the system level. The probabilistic model was found to be a significant improvement over the currently employed BUILDER® model for four major building systems (electrical, HVAC, fire protection, and electrical). This research assessed the performance and accuracy of both the …
A Risk Based Approach To Node Insertion Within Social Networks, Chancellor A. J. Johnstone
A Risk Based Approach To Node Insertion Within Social Networks, Chancellor A. J. Johnstone
Theses and Dissertations
Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a primary tool for counter-terrorism operations, ranging from resiliency and influence to interdiction on threats stemming from illicit overt and clandestine network operations. In an ideal world, SNA would provide a perfect course of action to eliminate dangerous situations that terrorist organizations bring. Unfortunately, the covert nature of terrorist networks makes the effects of these techniques unknown and possibly detrimental. To avoid potentially harmful changes to enemy networks, tactical involvement must evolve, beginning with the intelligent use of network in filtration through the application of the node insertion problem. The framework for the node insertion …
Network Interdependency Modeling For Risk Assessment On Built Infrastructure Systems, Vhance V. Valencia
Network Interdependency Modeling For Risk Assessment On Built Infrastructure Systems, Vhance V. Valencia
Theses and Dissertations
As modern infrastructures become more interconnected, the decision-making process becomes more difficult because of the increased complexity resulting from infrastructure interdependencies. Simulation and network modeling provide a way to understand system behavior as a result of interdependencies. One area within the asset management literature that is not well covered is infrastructure system decay and risks associated with that decay. This research presents an enhanced version of Haimes' input-output inoperability model (IIM) in the analysis of built infrastructure systems. Previous applications of the IIM characterized infrastructure at the national level utilizing large economic databases. This study develops a three-phased approach that …
Capturing Creative Program Management Best Practices, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin
Capturing Creative Program Management Best Practices, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin
Faculty Publications
This research attempted to capture the creative aspects of government program management in three specific areas: efficiently navigating oversight, capturing the intent of regulations, and developing innovative risk management practices. Respected acquisition leaders with diverse backgrounds and experiences were interviewed with ranks ranging from 0-6 to 0-8 and GS-15 to SES. Several contractor interviews were conducted for specific purposes. The data were iteratively coded and analyzed using ATLAS.ti. The results were categorized into four themes, each with three sub-elements. Differences between respondents with program director experience and those with rapid acquisition experience are discussed. A survey was then distributed to …
Investigation Into Risk And Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient Of Variation Benchmarks For Air Force Acat I Programs, Shaun T. Carney
Investigation Into Risk And Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient Of Variation Benchmarks For Air Force Acat I Programs, Shaun T. Carney
Theses and Dissertations
Previous DoD cost growth studies found typical cost growth in defense acquisitions is around forty-six to sixty percent of the original estimate. The research in this study addresses the identification of risk and uncertainty benchmarks by providing decision makers with coefficient of variation ranges for cost estimates. The study recommends coefficient of variation (CV) ranges for Air Force Acquisition programs, determines if different CV ranges should be used based on platform type, and determines if CV decreases over the course of the program's acquisition lifecycle. The analysis found that the Air Force should enhance the CV review process to ensure …
Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger
Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger
Theses and Dissertations
Collateral damage presents a significant risk during air drops and airstrikes, risking citizens' lives and property, straining the relationship between the United States Air Force and host nations. This dissertation presents a methodology to determine the optimal location for making supply airdrops in order to minimize collateral damage while maintaining a high likelihood of successful recovery. A series of non-linear optimization algorithms is presented along with their relative success in finding the optimal location in the airdrop problem. Additionally, we present a quick algorithm for accurately creating the Pareto frontier in the multi-objective airstrike problem. We demonstrate the effect of …
A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff
A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff
Theses and Dissertations
A risk analysis methodology is necessary to manage the potential effects of oil refinery outages to the increasingly connected, interdependent critical infrastructure of the United States. Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the lack of a critical infrastructure risk mitigation strategy was identified as an area for improvement. In both the 9/11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, cascading failures occurred due to the interdependencies among infrastructures and their spatial relationships. Furthermore, the U.S. military is dependent on oil refining capability and a major shortage could potentially have devastating effects on mission accomplishment. As a result, a need has emerged to better …
Analysis Of Kc-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing, Chad N. Chamberlain
Analysis Of Kc-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing, Chad N. Chamberlain
Theses and Dissertations
Increased emphasis from the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) over the past few years to include statistical rigor in all testing has brought an augmented look at testing across the Department of Defense. This thesis examines the methodology currently used in live fire testing, particularly in the case of risk mitigation of the KC-46 dry-bay fire test program. The thesis addresses gaps within the methodology and analyzes the results of a statistically rigorous test. The research furthers work on modeling the characterization of ballistic impact flash by validating concurrent models and characterizing the errors prone to these models …
Ballistic Flash Characterization: Penetration And Back-Face Flash, Michael J. Koslow
Ballistic Flash Characterization: Penetration And Back-Face Flash, Michael J. Koslow
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force is extremely concerned with the safety of its people, especially those who are flying aircraft. Aircrew members flying combat missions are concerned with the chance that a fragment from an exploding threat device may penetrate into the airframe to possibly ignite a fire onboard the aircraft. One concern for vulnerability revolves around a flash that may occur when a projectile strikes and penetrates an aircraft's fuselage. When certain fired rounds strike the airframe, they break into fragments called spall. Spall and other fragmentation from an impact often gain enough thermal energy to oxidize the materials involved. This …
Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper
Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper
Theses and Dissertations
This research develops a flexible agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) framework for supply chain risk management with significant enhancements to standard ABMS methods and supply chain risk modeling. Our framework starts with the use of software agents to gather and process input data for use in our simulation model. For our simulation model, we extend an existing mathematical framework for discrete event simulation (DES) to ABMS and then implement the concepts of variable resolution modeling from the DES domain to ABMS and provide further guidelines for aggregation and disaggregation of supply chain models. Existing supply chain risk management research focuses …
Risks Associated With Federal Construction Projects, Krishna R. Surajbally
Risks Associated With Federal Construction Projects, Krishna R. Surajbally
Theses and Dissertations
The rise in terrorism, corporate espionage, cyber attacks, and federal fiscal constraints play an important role in the federal construction process. The risks associated with these occurrences are studied to aid in the risk management of the military construction process. This paper presents the status of research into these areas to identify how methods, policies, applications, and information obtained from case studies can be used by stakeholders to manage risk in the United States Air Force construction process. The author reviewed research on risk associated with four essential components of the military construction process – Critical Infrastructure, Information Technology, Contracts, …
Application Of Post Modern Portfolio Theory To Mitigate Risk In International Shipping, Michael R. Quashne
Application Of Post Modern Portfolio Theory To Mitigate Risk In International Shipping, Michael R. Quashne
Theses and Dissertations
This research uses asset allocation concepts to determine the correct amount of cargo to send down the PAKGLOC and NDN to minimize the risk of loss or damage. Loss and Damage data is used from Transportation Discrepancy Reports and overall value is assumed to match the industry standard. Using assumed levels of pilferage along the NDN, a Monte Carlo simulation is run at each level of pilferage, and a Co-Lower Partial Moment model is solved. Analysis of the data shows a wide spread of possible optimal solutions at each level of pilferage. Due to the low levels of risk along …
Improving The Relevance Of Cyber Incident Notification For Mission Assurance, Stephen M. Woskov
Improving The Relevance Of Cyber Incident Notification For Mission Assurance, Stephen M. Woskov
Theses and Dissertations
Military organizations have embedded Information and Communication Technology (ICT) into their core mission processes as a means to increase operational efficiency, improve decision making quality, and shorten the kill chain. This dependence can place the mission at risk when the loss, corruption, or degradation of the confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability of a critical information resource occurs. Since the accuracy, conciseness, and timeliness of the information used in decision making processes dramatically impacts the quality of command decisions, and hence, the operational mission outcome; the recognition, quantification, and documentation of critical mission-information resource dependencies is essential for the organization to gain …
Estimating Cargo Airdrop Collateral Damage Risk, Vincent R. Cammarano
Estimating Cargo Airdrop Collateral Damage Risk, Vincent R. Cammarano
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to determine an appropriate method for estimating cargo airdrop collateral damage risk. Specifically, this thesis answers the question: How can mission planners accurately predict airdrop collateral damage risk? The question is answered through a literature review and a thorough examination of a data set of real world airdrop scoring data. The data were examined to determine critical factors that affect airdrop error risks as well as to determine the characteristics of airdrop error patterns. Through this research it was determined that bivariate normal distributions with parameters pairs determined by empirical data are appropriate for …
Application Of Systems Engineering To Rapid Prototyping For Close Air Support, John M. Colombi, Richard G. Cobb
Application Of Systems Engineering To Rapid Prototyping For Close Air Support, John M. Colombi, Richard G. Cobb
Faculty Publications
Twenty-first century military operations have brought forth many new challenges for the Armed Forces of the United States. One such challenge is with new operating environments, where current systems are not always effective. While it is desirable to apply a systems engineering approach to best meet critical user needs, there may be a misconception that systems engineering requires a lengthy and detailed process not nimble enough for a rapid prototyping effort. This article describes how a classic systems engineering methodology was successfully tailored to the rapid development of potential material solutions to meet a critical operational need. Key observations are …
Risk-Based Comparison Of Classification Systems, Seth B. Wagenman
Risk-Based Comparison Of Classification Systems, Seth B. Wagenman
Theses and Dissertations
Performance measures for families of classification system families that rely upon the analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), such as area under the ROC curve (AUC), often fail to fully address the issue of risk, especially for classification systems involving more than two classes. For the general case, we denote matrices of class prevalences, costs, and class-conditional probabilities, and assume costs are subjectively fixed, acceptable estimates for expected values of class-conditional probabilities exist, and mutual independence between a variable in one such matrix and those of any other matrix. The ROC Risk Functional (RRF), valid for any finite number of …
A Layered Social And Operational Network Analysis, Jennifer L. Geffre
A Layered Social And Operational Network Analysis, Jennifer L. Geffre
Theses and Dissertations
To provide maximal disruption to a clandestine/terrorist network's ability to conduct missions, we must develop a means to determine the individuals' importance to the network and operations. In a network centric world, this importance is represented as an additive value of their criticality across the convergence of multiple layers of network connections. The connections layers of the network are comprised of social layers (Acquaintance, Friendship, Nuclear Family, Relatives, Student-Teacher, and Religious Mentors, Reverent Power and others), as well as layers representing interactions involving Resources, Knowledge/Skills and Temporal Local. The social criticality of an individual is measured by centrality. Event Trees …
Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory And Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology, Jeremy D. Jordan
Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory And Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology, Jeremy D. Jordan
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis utilizes game theory within a framework for updating optimal decisions based on new information as it becomes available. Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker or a random component nature. Utility theory is applied to account for the different risk preferences of the decision makers. Furthermore, response surface methodology is used to explore good risk strategies for the decision maker to approach each situation with. The techniques are applied to a combat scenario, a football …
Quantification Of Risk For Usaf Fire And Emergency Services Flights As A Result Of Shortage In Manpower, Timothy D. Dalby
Quantification Of Risk For Usaf Fire And Emergency Services Flights As A Result Of Shortage In Manpower, Timothy D. Dalby
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force (USAF) is currently experiencing a period of high operations tempo and overseas deployments have become frequent. These deployments will leave home installations short manned. Some amount of risk is incurred by the home installation as a result of the short manning. For an organization, such as an USAF Fire and Emergency Services (FES) flight, whose primary responsibility is the protection of life and property, the incurred risk could be catastrophic. Still no attempt has been made to quantify risk in terms of manpower for the USAF FES flights. The primary purpose of this research was …
A Future-Based Risk Assessment For The Survivability Of Long Range Strike Systems, William D. Heuck Jr.
A Future-Based Risk Assessment For The Survivability Of Long Range Strike Systems, William D. Heuck Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force today faces the challenge of allocating development resources to prepare for future force projection requirements. In particular, the Air Force's core competency of Global Attack implies a future capability that can quickly and successfully deliver combat effects anywhere in the world with impunity. Understanding that the future threat environment is dynamic and that continued advancements by adversaries will likely degrade the technical superiority of today's weapon systems, the need arises for a planning model to direct development funding to areas with the greatest probability of successfully defending the strike vehicle of 2035. Examining this problem …
Mitigating Insider Threat Using Human Behavior Influence Models, Anthony J. Puleo
Mitigating Insider Threat Using Human Behavior Influence Models, Anthony J. Puleo
Theses and Dissertations
Insider threat is rapidly becoming the largest information security problem that organizations face. With large numbers of personnel having access to internal systems, it is becoming increasingly difficult to protect organizations from malicious insiders. The typical methods of mitigating insider threat are simply not working, primarily because this threat is a people problem, and most mitigation strategies are geared towards profiling and anomaly detection, which are problematic at best. As a result, a new type of model is proposed in this thesis, one that incorporates risk management with human behavioral science. The new risk-based model focuses on observable influences that …
Formal Mitigation Strategies For The Insider Threat: A Security Model And Risk Analysis Framework, Jonathan W. Butts
Formal Mitigation Strategies For The Insider Threat: A Security Model And Risk Analysis Framework, Jonathan W. Butts
Theses and Dissertations
The advancement of technology and reliance on information systems have fostered an environment of sharing and trust. The rapid growth and dependence on these systems, however, creates an increased risk associated with the insider threat. The insider threat is one of the most challenging problems facing the security of information systems because the insider already has capabilities within the system. Despite research efforts to prevent and detect insiders, organizations remain susceptible to this threat because of inadequate security policies and a willingness of some individuals to betray their organization. To investigate these issues, a formal security model and risk analysis …
Categorizing High Energy Laser Effects For The Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual, James A. Markham
Categorizing High Energy Laser Effects For The Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual, James A. Markham
Theses and Dissertations
With the high risk and cost in fielding High Energy Laser (HEL) weapon systems, the development process must include computer simulation models of weapon system performance from the engineering level up to predicting the military worth of employing specific systems in a combat scenario. This research effort focuses on defining how to measure lethality for HEL weapons in an Advanced Tactical Laser (ATL) scenario. In order to create an effective measure for direct comparison between the emerging laser weapon system and existing conventionally delivered weapons, lase time in seconds is presented as a measure comparable to rounds required to cause …
Determining A Relationship Between Foreign News Media Reports Covering U.S. Military Events And Network Incidents Against Dod Networks, Jason D. Jaros
Determining A Relationship Between Foreign News Media Reports Covering U.S. Military Events And Network Incidents Against Dod Networks, Jason D. Jaros
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis explores the nature of the relationship between foreign news media and network incidents against DoD networks. A rank correlation was performed between the number of network incidents against DoD networks and foreign news media reports covering U.S. Military events. Further analysis was conducted to determine the key terms used in the contents of foreign news media reports for the months the reports were significantly correlated with network incidents. Several significant correlations were found between various combinations of regions and categories of network incidents. However, the correlations were only moderate and the key terms only led to a slightly …