Risk Analysis Commons^™

Machine Learning-Based Data And Model Driven Bayesian Uncertanity Quantification Of Inverse Problems For Suspended Non-Structural System, Zhiyuan Qin

All Dissertations

Inverse problems involve extracting the internal structure of a physical system from noisy measurement data. In many fields, the Bayesian inference is used to address the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem by incorporating prior information through an initial distribution. In the nonparametric Bayesian framework, surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes or Deep Neural Networks are used as flexible and effective probabilistic modeling tools to overcome the high-dimensional curse and reduce computational costs. In practical systems and computer models, uncertainties can be addressed through parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification, leading to improved reliability and robustness of decision and …

Quantification Of Various Types Of Biases In Large Language Models, Sudhashree Sayenju

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems are included everywhere on the internet from search engines, language translations to more advanced systems like voice assistant and customer service. Since humans are always on the receiving end of NLP technologies, it is very important to analyze whether or not the Large Language Models (LLMs) in use have bias and are therefore unfair. The majority of the research in NLP bias has focused on societal stereotype biases embedded in LLMs. However, our research focuses on all types of biases, namely model class level bias, stereotype bias and domain bias present in LLMs. Model class …

Self-Learning Algorithms For Intrusion Detection And Prevention Systems (Idps), Juan E. Nunez, Roger W. Tchegui Donfack, Rohit Rohit, Hayley Horn

SMU Data Science Review

Today, there is an increased risk to data privacy and information security due to cyberattacks that compromise data reliability and accessibility. New machine learning models are needed to detect and prevent these cyberattacks. One application of these models is cybersecurity threat detection and prevention systems that can create a baseline of a network's traffic patterns to detect anomalies without needing pre-labeled data; thus, enabling the identification of abnormal network events as threats. This research explored algorithms that can help automate anomaly detection on an enterprise network using Canadian Institute for Cybersecurity data. This study demonstrates that Neural Networks with Bayesian …

Modeling Radiation Exposure On Flight Missions To Analyze Aircrew Risk, Camila V. Quintero Hilsaca

Theses and Dissertations

GCR and SPE comprise the majority of the ionizing radiation experienced in the upper atmosphere within flight-altitude environments. Although previous studies have analyzed radiation doses from single sources on civilian flight operations, there is a lack of research focused on dose received by military personnel during flight from both sources simultaneously. In-flight radiation environments are modeled through the MCNP6 for two separate aircraft, an Air Force A-10 and a Boeing 737. Particle fluence values for galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events for four separate flight paths are determined using the CARI-7A software and the SIRE2 toolkit, respectively. MCNP6 code …

Examining Fuel Service System Failures Of The Usaf R11 Using Survival Analysis, Roed M.S. Mejia

Theses and Dissertations

Recent events show that fuel supply is a large contributor to the success or failure of a military operation in response to a contingency. Any future near-peer conflict will stress the supply chain and require fully operational vehicles to be ready for the primary mission sets they support. In the United States Air Force (USAF), the readiness of fuel distribution trucks is crucial to meeting those mission sets in global operations. Utilizing non-parametric and semi-parametric survival models, which do not assume specific probability distributions, this study analyzes maintenance data for R-11 trucks that refuel aircraft.

Fragility Of The Florida Panhandle's Electrical Transmission Grid To Hurricanes, Zachary D. Schumann

Theses and Dissertations

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid’s resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build …

Application Of Big Data Technology, Text Classification, And Azure Machine Learning For Financial Risk Management Using Data Science Methodology, Oluwaseyi A. Ijogun

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Data science plays a crucial role in enabling organizations to optimize data-driven opportunities within financial risk management. It involves identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, ultimately safeguarding investments, reducing uncertainty, ensuring regulatory compliance, enhancing decision-making, and fostering long-term sustainability. This thesis explores three facets of Data Science projects: enhancing customer understanding, fraud prevention, and predictive analysis, with the goal of improving existing tools and enabling more informed decision-making. The first project examined leveraged big data technologies, such as Hadoop and Spark, to enhance financial risk management by accurately predicting loan defaulters and their repayment likelihood. In the second project, we investigated …

Exploring Information Leakage In Historical Stock Market Data, Edison Hua

Dissertations and Theses

Information leakage is a major concern for traders who want to execute large orders without affecting the market price. In this paper, we explore the sources and effects of information leakage in historical stock market data using various methods and metrics. We first define information leakage as a pattern caused by a trader that would otherwise not occur without the trader’s activity. Using historical data, the direct impact of a potential large trade cannot be measured, but we consider a minimal impact large trade to be one that minimizes changes to the established trading data. We then analyze how information …

Improving The Health And Safety Of Manufacturing Workers By Detecting And Addressing Personal Protective Equipment (Ppe) Violations In Real-Time With The Use Of Automated Ppe Detection Technology, Joseph Olufemi Fasinu

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) emphasized that Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) can significantly reduce the risk of occupational injuries and illnesses. However, improper use, failure to use, and other PPE-related violations can still result in injuries and fatalities. Eye and face protection violation has been one of the top 10 most frequently violated OSHA standards in fiscal years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 consecutively. A common practice among safety professionals to ensure PPE compliance has been to physically inspect or monitor PPE usage among workers, which has been found to be unsustainable on a continuous real-time …

Dynamic Rbi With Central Difference Method Approach In Calculation Of Uniform Corrosion Rate: A Casestudy On Gas Pipelines, M.Riefqi Dwi Alviansyah, Fernanda Hartoyo, Zahra Nadia Nurullia, Ari Kurniawan

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

The oil and gas industry generally uses a piping system to drain fluids. Even though the pipes used have been well designed, the use of pipes as a means of fluid transportation still provides the possibility of failure that can occur at any time, one of which is due to uniform corrosion. The use of standard Risk Based Inspection (RBI) according to the API RBI 581 document has been widely used to anticipate potential failures to pipe components. The use of standard RBI can reduce the risk of failure significantly. Because the standard RBI considers the component risk value to …

Cloud Container Security’ Next Move, Vishakha Sadhwani

Dissertations and Theses

In the last few years, it is apparent to cybersecurity experts everywhere that the proverbial container tech genie is out of the bottle, and has been widely embraced across multiple organizations. To achieve the flexibility of building and deploying applications anywhere and everywhere, cloud native environments have gained great momentum and made the development lifecycle simpler than ever. However, container environments brings with them a range of cybersecurity issues that includes images, containers, hosts, runtimes, registries, and orchestration platforms, which needs the necessity to focus on investing in securing your container stack.

According to this report[1], released by cloud-native …

Towards Structured Planning And Learning At The State Fisheries Agency Scale, Caleb A. Aldridge

Theses and Dissertations

Inland recreational fisheries has grown philosophically and scientifically to consider economic and sociopolitical aspects (non-biological) in addition to the biological. However, integrating biological and non-biological aspects of inland fisheries has been challenging. Thus, an opportunity exists to develop approaches and tools which operationalize planning and decision-making processes which include biological and non-biological aspects of a fishery. This dissertation expands the idea that a core set of goals and objectives is shared among and within inland fisheries agencies; that many routine operations of inland fisheries managers can be regimented or standardized; and the novel concept that current information and operations can …

Scale Modeling Of An Appearance Of Downwash Pattern Of Hot Smoke Ejected From Chimney In The Turbulent Cross Flow, Xangpheuak Inthavideth, Nobumasa Sekishita, Sounthisack Phommachanh, Yuji Nakamura

Progress in Scale Modeling, an International Journal

This study aims to elucidate the scaling law to provide the critical condition on appearance of the downwash pattern of the hot smoke ejected from a chimney in a turbulent cross flow. A specially designed wind tunnel with an active turbulence generator developed by Makita was adopted to offer a quasi-isotropic turbulence field in a lab-scale test facility. A heated jet with smoke is issued into the cross flow from the vertically oriented chimney placed in the test section of the wind tunnel. In this study, the experimental parameters considered are temperature of the heated jet (smoke), jet ejected velocity, …

Research On Uncertainties And Challenges Of Cyber Security In Maritime Industry, Qianrong Chen

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Adaptive Risk Network Dependency Analysis Of Complex Hierarchical Systems, Katherine L. Smith

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Recently the number, variety, and complexity of interconnected systems have been increasing while the resources available to increase resilience of those systems have been decreasing. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to quantify the effects of risks and the resulting disruptions over time as they ripple through networks of systems. This dissertation presents a novel modeling and simulation methodology which quantifies resilience, as impact on performance over time, and risk, as the impact of probabilistic disruptions. This work includes four major contributions over the state-of-the-art which are: (1) cyclic dependencies are captured by separation of performance variables into layers which …

Evaluating A Statistical-Based Assessment Tool For Stratifying Risk Among U.S. Air Force Organizations, Tiffany A. Low

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Inspection System is a proponent of utilizing a risk-based sampling strategy (RBSS) for conducting inspections from major command levels down to the unit level. The strategy identifies areas deemed most important or risky by commanders and prioritizes them accordingly for an independent assessment by the Inspector General. While Air Force regulation specifies the need to use a RBSS for inspection, the implementation process is delegated to individual commands and, subsequently, wings. The 23rd Wing, the sponsor for this research, directed us to analyze a RBSS tool highlighted as an example from which to adopt for those units …

Wetland Uranium Transport Via Iron-Organic Matter Flocs And Hyporheic Exchange, Connor J. Parker

All Dissertations

Uranium (U) released from the M-Area at the Department of Energy Savannah River Site into Tims Branch, a seasonal wetland and braided stream system, is estimated to be 43,500 kg between 1965 and 1984. The motivation for this work is the uranium’s persistence in the wetland for decades, where it is estimated that 80% of the U currently remains in the Tims Branch wetland. U has begun to incorporate into wetland iron (Fe) and carbon cycles, associating with local Fe mineralogy and deposits of rich wetland organic matter (OM). The objective of this work is to characterize the chemical phases …

Survivability Analysis In The Shadow Of Apollo: Part Ii - Spacecraft Charging Vulnerability Near The Stable Earth-Moon Lagrange Points, Robert A. Bettinger, Nathan R. Boone, Nicholas S. Hamilton, Bryan D. Little

Faculty Publications

Though the reality of routine travel and sustained operations in space likely remains several decades away, the building blocks of space exploration and space system development necessary to realize this reality are currently being laid by peer, near-peer, and emerging space-faring nations. The pursuance of sustained cislunar space operations will necessitate a renewed examination of spacecraft survivability and the capability of spacecraft to avoid and/or withstand the natural and manmade environmental risks posed by this “new” ultimate high ground.

The Effects Of Antecedents And Mediating Factors On Cybersecurity Protection Behavior, Ling Li, Li Xu, Wu He

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

This paper identifies opportunities for potential theoretical and practical improvements in employees' awareness of cybersecurity and their motivational behavior to protect themselves and their organizations from cyberattacks using the protection motivation theory. In addition, it contributes to the literature by examining additional variables and mediators besides the core constructs of the Protection Motivation Model (PMT). This article uses empirical data and structural equation modeling to test the antecedents and mediators of employees' cybersecurity motivational behavior. The study offers theoretical and pragmatic guidance for cybersecurity programs. First, the model developed in this study can partially explain how people may change their …

Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen

VMASC Publications

In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …

Integration Of Blockchain Technology Into Automobiles To Prevent And Study The Causes Of Accidents, John Kim

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automobile collisions occur daily. We now live in an information-driven world, one where technology is quickly evolving. Blockchain technology can change the automotive industry, the safety of the motoring public and its surrounding environment by incorporating this vast array of information. It can place safety and efficiency at the forefront to pedestrians, public establishments, and provide public agencies with pertinent information securely and efficiently. Other industries where Blockchain technology has been effective in are as follows: supply chain management, logistics, and banking. This paper reviews some statistical information regarding automobile collisions, Blockchain technology, Smart Contracts, Smart Cities; assesses the feasibility …

Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (Cmmc) Compliance For Dod Contractors, Sierra Burnett

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

The DoD is currently taking a supply-chain risk management strategy to foster cybersecurity. This unique strategy is often referred to as CMMC which stands for “Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification”. The approach requires that all the 300,000 DoD contractors acquire third-party authentication that may attain the requirements for the CMMC maturity level suitable to the work they desire to do for the DoD. CMMC typically examines the organization's capability to safeguard Federal Contract Information as well as CUI. It integrates various cybersecurity standards already in place and plots the best practices alongside processes to five maturity levels that range from the …

Risk Management And Biases In How Drivers Respond To Nuisance Flooding, Saige Hill, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Burton St. John Iii, Pragati Rawat, Carol Considine

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Nuisance flooding, or recurrent flooding, occurs during high tide and may be exacerbated when combined with other events such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, or storm surge. Sea level rise has contributed to increased frequency and duration of nuisance flooding in low-lying coastal areas and is causing community-specific impacts such as transportation disruption, road closures, compromises to life and property, overwhelmed storm water systems, and infrastructure damage. This chapter focuses on how drivers respond during nuisance flooding events. Specifically, we discuss how drivers in the Hampton Roads region of southeastern coastal Virginia obtain information about road flooding, how they respond, …

Survivability Analysis In The Shadow Of Apollo: Part I - Cislunar Debris Propagation And Spacecraft Vulnerability, Nathan R. Boone, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

Although the reality of routine travel and sustained operations and habitation in space likely remains several decades away, the building blocks of space exploration and space system development necessary to realize this reality are currently being laid by peer, near-peer, and emerging space-faring nations. Traditionally, global space operations were notionally limited to near-Earth space, with mission altitudes extending to geosynchronous or even highly elliptical orbits. During the 2010s, however, space operations began moving beyond this paradigm to encompass cislunar space with reinvigorated U.S. initiatives to return to the Moon via the Artemis program, planned commercial space projects, and an accelerated …

Using An Inventory Of Unstable Slopes To Prioritize Probabilistic Rockfall Modeling And Acid Base Accounting In Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Thomas A. O'Shea

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

An inventory of unstable slopes along transportation corridors and performance modeling are important components of geotechnical asset management in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM). Hazards and risk were assessed for 285 unstable slopes along 151 miles of roadway. A multi-criteria model was created to select fourteen sites for two-dimensional probabilistic rockfall simulations and Acid Base Accounting (ABA) tests. Simulations indicate that rock material would likely enter the roadway at all fourteen sites. ABA test results indicate that influence of significant acid-producing potential is generally confined to slaty rocks of the Anakeesta Formation and graphitic schist of the Wehutty Formation. …

Quantifying Cyber Risk By Integrating Attack Graph And Impact Graph, Omer F. Keskin

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Being a relatively new risk source, models to quantify cyber risks are not well developed; therefore, cyber risk management in most businesses depends on qualitative assessments. With the increase in the economic consequences of cyber incidents, the importance of quantifying cyber risks has increased. Cyber risk quantification is also needed to establish communication among decision-makers of different levels of an enterprise, from technical personnel to top management.

The goal of this research is to build a probabilistic cybersecurity risk analysis model that relates attack propagation with impact propagation through internal dependencies and allows temporal analysis.

The contributions of the developed …

Modernization Of Scienttific Mathematics Formula In Technology, Iwasan D. Kejawa Ed.D, Prof. Iwasan D. Kejawa Ed.D

Department of Mathematics: Faculty Publications

Abstract
Is it true that we solve problem using techniques in form of formula? Mathematical formulas can be derived through thinking of a problem or situation. Research has shown that we can create formulas by applying theoretical, technical, and applied knowledge. The knowledge derives from brainstorming and actual experience can be represented by formulas. It is intended that this research article is geared by an audience of average knowledge level of solving mathematics and scientific intricacies. This work details an introductory level of simple, at times complex problems in a mathematical epidermis and computability and solvability in a Computer Science. …

Modeling And Solving The Outsourcing Risk Management Problem In Multi-Echelon Supply Chains, Arian A. Nahangi

Master's Theses

Worldwide globalization has made supply chains more vulnerable to risk factors, increasing the associated costs of outsourcing goods. Outsourcing is highly beneficial for any company that values building upon its core competencies, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have exposed significant vulnerabilities within supply chains. These disruptions forced a shift in the production of goods from outsourcing to domestic methods.

This paper considers a multi-echelon supply chain model with global and domestic raw material suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and markets. All levels within the supply chain network are evaluated from a holistic perspective, calculating a total …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Cybersecurity Risk Assessment Using Graph Theoretical Anomaly Detection And Machine Learning, Goksel Kucukkaya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The cyber domain is a great business enabler providing many types of enterprises new opportunities such as scaling up services, obtaining customer insights, identifying end-user profiles, sharing data, and expanding to new communities. However, the cyber domain also comes with its own set of risks. Cybersecurity risk assessment helps enterprises explore these new opportunities and, at the same time, proportionately manage the risks by establishing cyber situational awareness and identifying potential consequences. Anomaly detection is a mechanism to enable situational awareness in the cyber domain. However, anomaly detection also requires one of the most extensive sets of data and features …