Risk Analysis Commons^™

Comparison Of Two Different Transport Models To Predict Sediment Transport: Simiyu River, Tanzania, Case Study, F Mwanuzi1

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

This paper presents the results of a study which focused at the spatial and temporal characteristics of sediment transport and deposition in the main river channels and floodplains. Two different numerical models were used to simulate stream flow and to analyze sediment transport and deposition in the river channels: (1) the SMS modules RMA2 and SED2D and (2) the SCALDIS model developed at the Free University of Brussels. Both numerical models contain a two-dimensional hydrodynamic module and a sediment transport module, allowing simulation of stream flow and sediment transport processes in river channels. However, they differ in the following aspects: …

Overview Of Hydraulics And Simiyu River Sediment Input Into Magu Bay, Lake Victoria, Tanzania, Alfonse Dubi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Lake Victoria is experiencing multifaceted environmental and ecological problems. A  study of the problems needs a multidisciplinary approach. to establish the cause-effect relationships. The study focuses on the hydraulics of Lake Victoria's Magu Bay and Simiyu riverine input of suspended sediments and their distribution in the Bay. Sampling in the river mouth and the Bay was conducted aboard an 8m outboard engine wooden boat. Turbidity, currents speed and direction were measured using an "AANDERAA" multi-sensor self-recording current meter model 9 (RCM9). Water depth was measured using an echo-sounder type FISHIN' BUDDY II. Geographical positions of the sampling locations were obtained …

Socio-Economic Impacts Of Computer Viruses In Tanzania, M Victor

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

This paper reports on a research project conducted with an objective of identifying and assessing various approaches used by different computer users (Management, System Administrators and end users) in Tanzania to combat computer viruses (CVs), and to assess users' awareness level on CVs. Specifically, the study aimed at assessing the awareness level on CVs to the Tanzanian business community; analyze the socio -economic impact caused by CVs in Tanzania and; assess existing methods, capacity and limitations on controlling CVs in Tanzania. Data was collected using both questionnaires and interview from financial institutions such as NBC and BOT, and telecommunications sector …

Investigation Of The Stability Of Engine – Governor System Operated At Low Speeds, Cuthbert Mhilu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

During diesel engine operation, a tendency for the engine not to achieve a  steady idling speed has often been observed. During idling speed the engine tends to either race or stall as a result of poor and incorrect metering of the fuel, which is required for the combustion process and if severe, the engine will stop firing completely. 111 this research an investigation was made to establish knowledge on diesel engine stability operated at low speeds. The influence of a governor of an engine in the control of the engine speeds has also been investigated. In order to obtain information …

Mitigating Insider Threat Using Human Behavior Influence Models, Anthony J. Puleo

Theses and Dissertations

Insider threat is rapidly becoming the largest information security problem that organizations face. With large numbers of personnel having access to internal systems, it is becoming increasingly difficult to protect organizations from malicious insiders. The typical methods of mitigating insider threat are simply not working, primarily because this threat is a people problem, and most mitigation strategies are geared towards profiling and anomaly detection, which are problematic at best. As a result, a new type of model is proposed in this thesis, one that incorporates risk management with human behavioral science. The new risk-based model focuses on observable influences that …

Formal Mitigation Strategies For The Insider Threat: A Security Model And Risk Analysis Framework, Jonathan W. Butts

Theses and Dissertations

The advancement of technology and reliance on information systems have fostered an environment of sharing and trust. The rapid growth and dependence on these systems, however, creates an increased risk associated with the insider threat. The insider threat is one of the most challenging problems facing the security of information systems because the insider already has capabilities within the system. Despite research efforts to prevent and detect insiders, organizations remain susceptible to this threat because of inadequate security policies and a willingness of some individuals to betray their organization. To investigate these issues, a formal security model and risk analysis …

Analysis Of Per Capita Expenditures Of Suburbanizing Communities In Maine, New England Environmental Finance Center

Economics and Finance

This study analyzes per capita expenditure trends among selected fast-growing Maine towns from 1970-2004. The ten communities studied are termed as “suburbanizing” towns. This term is used to describe towns that over the past 30-40 years have been in the process of transition from rural to suburban – in terms of their population and housing densities, their forms of government, and the services they provide, as well as other characteristics.1 Such towns are of particular interest because they have been absorbing a healthy percentage of the state’s population growth during this time period, often at the expense of Maine’s service …

Software Development Project Risk Management: A Literature Review, Kevin Macg. Adams, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The rapid and unprecedented growth in software has brought with it some of the most spectacular and costly project failures in modern history. How risk management is presented in the scholarly journals may give insight into the risk management methods and techniques in use on software development projects. This paper provides a glimpse into the risk management methods, methodologies and techniques available to those who are responsible for software development projects by conducting a non-experimental content analysis. The findings reveal that risk management has not received sufficient attention and does not appear to be widely accepted within the software engineering …

Short-Term Scheduling Of A Hydro-Thermal System Using Linear Programming Technique, A Kyaruzi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The paper discusses the short term scheduling of Hydrothermal for Tanzania Electricity Supply Company (TANESCO) Power System. The problem is to determine on hourly interval the Hydro and Thermal generation. The scheduling keeps balance between production and consumption in a reliable and economical way during the study period. Linear programming (LP) mathematical model using MATL4B has been developed. The constraints are hydrological balance, thermal power plants limitations and load requirements. The result from LP solution gave low operation cost. Generation was mainly from hydro and all reservoirs elevation was high at the end ofplanning period.

Information And Communication Technology Applications In The Tanzanian Health Sector, M Victor

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The potential role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in the health sector is to improve the delivery of health services and would also help to deal with major constraints in uplifting the health standards Of Tanzanians. ICT in heath can be used to facilitate remote consultation, diagnosis and treatment. The objective Of the study was exploratory in nature and aimed at determining the awareness level of the länzanian health sector on various ICT applications which could be used in the sector. The study also aimed ar establishing the challenges to the implementation of ICT in the Tanzanian health sector. …

Assessment Of The Accuracy Of Approximate Methods In The Analysis Of Plane Frame Structures, I Rubaratuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

pproximaic methods of analysis are widely used in the analysis OJ' frames for preliminary design due to their simplicily as compared to exact analysis meth o ds Ough they a re nol as accurate. In this paper. the methods Of hinges and portal frame are described and have been used to analyze a statically indeterminate frame by taking inro account the bending stiffness of the frame members. The obtained results are comparable Io the magnitudes of forces determined by exact methods Of analysis.

Mathematical Simulation Of The Influence Of Volatile Ma•Rrer Cloud On Heterogeneous Ignition Of Single Coal Particles, Hassan Ratal Ambula

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Asimple model has been developed to predict the heterogeneous ignition temperature for single coal particles under conditions of negligible, natural and forced convections. These conditions cause different sizes Of volatile matter cloud that surround the coal particle. The model is based on the ignition Of a single coal particle heated by irradiation from spot heaters in a cold (ambient) surrounding. Energy from the particle surface oxidation, volatile matter combustion and physical heating from the spot heaters are all included in rhe particle energv balance. General ignüion criterion is used to determine the ignition point. The agreement between the experimental and …

Review Of The Product Development Process And Information Flow In The Manufacturing Industry: Problems And A Possible Wav Forward, E Opiyo

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

No abstract provided.

Probabilistic Load Flow For Mv Radial Distribution Networks Supplying Statistical Loads, B Kundy

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Aecurate load models are required Jör 'he computation OJ' load on Medium Voltage (MV) distribution net•.vovk.s_ Modern microprocessors in recent times have enabled researchers stunple and log domestic loads. The findings show that domestic loads are stochastic in nonwe and are best described bv u beta probability distribution [Herman et al. 1999]. The statistical evaluafion lhe consumer voltages requires description load currents al rhe lime e/ lhe system maximum demand. In this paper. an analytical 1001 computing voltage vegulation on MV distribution net-norks fi•eding statistical louds is presenled. To deal beta- distributed currents on MV distribution networks, new scaling factors …

Surveying Cost Growth, Michael A. Greiner, Vince Sipple, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Cost growth that weapon systems incur throughout their acquisition life cycle concerns those who work in the acquisition environment. One way to reduce the amount of unexpected cost growth is to develop better cost estimates. In attaining better cost estimates though, it is often helpful to understand and account for potential cost drivers. Several cost studies, some of which specifically focus on the aircraft industry, have been performed documenting and investigating these growth factors. Overviews of these various cost growth studies are presented as other tools for the cost estimators and program managers.

Application Of Vibrational Techniques In Determination Of Dynamic Properties Of Agricultural Products-State Of The Arton Of Vibrational Techniques In Determination Of Dynamic Properties Of Agricultural Products-State Of The Art, Silas Kajuna

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Vibration is one of the techniques employed in the determination of dynamic properties of fruits and vegetables. It entails generation of a mechanical or acoustic vibrational signal which is propagated through the flesh of the agricultural material. A transducer is either attached or held close to the specimen to monitor the propagation of the signal through the specimen. The manner in which the signal is transmitted through the material is analyzed, and the dynamic properties of the specimen which relate to its firmness or its internal being are derived. The technique has been around for the past 30 years or …

Comparison Of One-Dimensional And Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling Approaches For Red River Basin, Sajjad Ahmad, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A devastating flood in Red River valley in 1997 emphasized the need to study the flood control measures in the Red River basin using state of the art modeling tools. The Red River and its floodplains can be modeled using one-dimensional, quasi two-dimensional or fully two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. Each modeling approach has its own advantages and limitations. The main purpose of this report is a comparison between one-dimensional (or quasi two dimensional) and fully two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approaches for modeling floods in the Red River basin.

A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, MIKE 21, coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) …

Extracting Consistent Weight Ratio Matrices From Inconsistent Judgement Matrices., Christian Alphonce

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The Analy,'ic Hierarchy Process (AHP) developed by Saaty Inore (han a decade ago has been widely applied in diverse decision making problenls ranging from socio-economic planning to engineering designs. One of the basic steps of this popular decision support tool is concerned with estimating a ratio scale of a set of entities from their inconsistent pairwise comparison judgement matrix. A number of estimation procedures for this purpose have been proposed. These include Saaty's eigenvector meihod, various geometric means methods, and methods using logarithmic least squares, least squares. and means Transformanons, amongst O,'hers. One Thing conunon to all these Inethods is …

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

Physical And Managed Risk Of Nuclear Waste, Lennart Sjöberg, Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjöberg

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The authors describe their work on the perceived risk of nuclear waste in Sweden. Three levels of waste were studied, and comparisons between the perceptions of the public, politicians and nuclear experts are made.

Analyzing And Improving Stochastic Network Security: A Multicriteria Prescriptive Risk Analysis Model, David L. Lyle

Theses and Dissertations

This research optimized two measures of network security by hardening components and improving their reliability. A common measure of effectiveness (MOE) for networks is statistical reliability, which ignores the effects of hostile actions. A new MOE which includes hostile actions was developed. Both measures require component reliability functions, derived using fault trees. Fuzzy Logic and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify uncertainty. Results from the model are compared to traditional Risk Assessment results.

A Monte Carlo Model Of Uncertainty In A Deterministic Hazardous Waste Transportation Risk Assessment, Michael A. Cowen

Masters Theses

This thesis is aimed at developing and applying advanced modeling tools in the prediction of risk to the general public from transportation of chemical waste on public highways. The modeling tools developed can then be used to compare alternative waste management scenarios. The application considered is related to the transport of hazardous waste generated by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to current treatment, storage, and disposal facilities. DOE is currently considering four different scenarios.

The application considered can be more specifically defined as an analysis of the risk to the general public from transporting the 63 shipments of …

An Investigation Of Instantaneous Plume Rise From Rocket Exhaust, Paul F. Sand

Theses and Dissertations

Rocket launches at Vandenburg Air Force Base and Cape Canaveral Air Station produce exhaust clouds containing several toxic by-products, including HC1 and A12O3. These clouds rise to atmospheric stabilization heights, and then start dispersing and diffusing through the air. Upon reaching the ground, concentration levels of the toxins may present a human health risk. To predict these risks and concentration levels, range officials use a computer program titled the Rocket Effluent Exhaust Diffusion Model (REEDM). The version currently in use has been shown to underpredict the stabilization height of the exhaust cloud. This thesis examines the theory and algorithms used …

An Activity Driver Based Analysis Of Hazardous Materials Usage At Wright-Patterson Afb, Charles D. Perham

Theses and Dissertations

As the Air Force has progressed and succeeded in the realm of pollution prevention, the opportunities for further progress have become more challenging. With the 'low-hanging fruit' now gone from the pollution prevention tree, new methods to identify opportunities must be adopted. This research effort applied a subset of activity based costing, activity driver analysis, to reveal pollution prevention opportunities in regards to hazardous materials usage. A sample of base organizations (civil engineering and aircraft maintenance), and a sample of the hazardous chemicals (Class C or most hazardous) used by those organizations were investigated to determine the drivers behind usage.

A Comparison Of Remediation Priorities Developed By The Defense Priority Model, The Relative Risk Evaluation Method, And A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach, David M. Hunter

Theses and Dissertations

The Superfund, established by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) of 1980, seriously underestimated both the number of severely contaminated sites and the associated cleanup cost. The magnitude of projected cleanup costs, coupled with shrinking federal budgets, necessitated the development and use of risk-based prioritization models among some federal agencies. Among these tools, the DOD prioritization models are meant to give priority to sites posing the greatest threat to human health. Their failure to properly rank sites could incorrectly shift the focus from those that pose substantial risk to sites of lesser risk. The DOD site ranking …

Economic Impacts Of Noxious Facilities: Incorporating The Effects Of Risk Aversion, Leslie A. Nieves

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The author suggests an integrative approach for projecting economic impacts of facilities that elicit public Risk aversion. She incorporates both economic stimulus effects and perception-based effects of facilities on the host area economy. Empirical findings are compared and an impact estimation framework is suggested for integrating psychometric and econometric techniques.

Reply To Valverde, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Professor Thompson responds to Valverde's argument, in the last issue, that his approach to Risk puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism. In doing so, he asserts, inter alia, that anchoring Risk judgments in a probabilistic framework does not go far enough in rejecting reigning Risk-analysis notions of "real Risk."

The Cognitive Status Of Risk: A Response To Thompson, L. James Valverde

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Discussing the role that probability theory should play in Risk analysis and management, Dr. Valverde argues that Thompson's approach puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism in addressing the question, "When are Risks real?"

Risk Objectivism And Risk Subjectivism: When Are Risks Real, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Typically, those who discuss Risk management envision a two-step process wherein, first, Risk is more or less objectively appraised and, second, the acceptability of those Risks is subjectively evaluated. This paper questions the philosophical foundations of that approach.

Fundy Tidal Power Development : Preliminary Evaluation Of Its Environmental Consequences To The Resources Of The State Of Maine, Bigelow Laboratory For Ocean Sciences

Maine Collection

Fundy Tidal Power Development : Preliminary Evaluation of Its Environmental Consequences to the Resources of the State of Maine

A Report to the Maine State Planning Office by the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, April, 1984.

"Technical Report No. 35 - Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, Maine - A Division of Northeastern Research Foundation, Inc."

Contents: Executive Summary / Introduction / Methods / Physical and Biological Consequences / Socio-Economic Consequences / Research Needs / Bibliography / Appendix I. Written Comments on Greenberg Model