Risk Analysis Commons^™

The Hazard Prediction Problem, Mary E. Helander, Brendan Smith, Sylvia Charchut, Erika Swiatowy, Calvin Nau, Gregory Cavaretta, Timothy Schuler, Adam Schunk, Héctor Ortiz-Peña

Social Science - All Scholarship

This work formulates the hazard prediction problem while addressing the research question: Can machine learning create a model to automatically recognize patterns that correspond to hazard state conditions during a mission-critical operation? Supervised learning models were trained and tested on data observed from mission simulators, which allowed for safe observation of dynamic system states and undesirable casualty events. The prediction task was formulated as a binary classification problem, producing the probability of being in a hazard state at time t and providing situational awareness of a possible imminent loss. Several modeling architectures were investigated: neural networks, logistic regression, a support …

Embedding Software Engineering In Mixed Methods: Computationally Enhanced Risk Communication, Ann Marie Reinhold, Madison H. Munro, Elizabeth A. Shanahan, Ross J. Gore, Barry C. Ezell, Clemente I. Izurieta

VMASC Publications

Mixed methods research ameliorates many convergent research challenges within the contemporary sociotechnical landscape. We suggest the integration of software engineering in mixed methods studies is a critical step to address some of the remaining and persistent challenges. One such research challenge where software engineering is particularly well suited is in hazard preparedness—in particular, the creation of risk communication messages to mitigate or prevent harm. Computationally enhanced risk communication is convergent research that integrates software engineering and social science research for the benefit of protecting humans and infrastructure. To this end, we developed a mixed methods framework for the efficient construction …

Ai And Ml-Based Risk Assessment Of Chemicals: Predicting Carcinogenic Risk From Chemical-Induced Genomic Instability, Ajay Vikram Singh, Preeti Bhardwaj, Peter Laux, Prachi Pradeep, Madleen Busse, Andreas Luch, Akihiko Hirose, Christopher J. Osgood, Michael W. Stacey

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Chemical risk assessment plays a pivotal role in safeguarding public health and environmental safety by evaluating the potential hazards and risks associated with chemical exposures. In recent years, the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and omics technologies has revolutionized the field of chemical risk assessment, offering new insights into toxicity mechanisms, predictive modeling, and risk management strategies. This perspective review explores the synergistic potential of AI/ML and omics in deciphering clastogen-induced genomic instability for carcinogenic risk prediction. We provide an overview of key findings, challenges, and opportunities in integrating AI/ML and omics technologies for chemical risk assessment, …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

The Transformative Integration Of Artificial Intelligence With Cmmc And Nist 800-171 For Advanced Risk Management And Compliance, Mia Lunati

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

This paper explores the transformative potential of integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) with established cybersecurity frameworks such as the Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Special Publication 800-171. The thesis argues that the relationship between AI and these frameworks has the capacity to transform risk management in cybersecurity, where it could serve as a critical element in threat mitigation. In addition to addressing AI’s capabilities, this paper acknowledges the risks and limitations of these systems, highlighting the need for extensive research and monitoring when relying on AI. One must understand boundaries when integrating …

Static Malware Family Clustering Via Structural And Functional Characteristics, David George, Andre Mauldin, Josh Mitchell, Sufiyan Mohammed, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

Static and dynamic analyses are the two primary approaches to analyzing malicious applications. The primary distinction between the two is that the application is analyzed without execution in static analysis, whereas the dynamic approach executes the malware and records the behavior exhibited during execution. Although each approach has advantages and disadvantages, dynamic analysis has been more widely accepted and utilized by the research community whereas static analysis has not seen the same attention. This study aims to apply advancements in static analysis techniques to demonstrate the identification of fine-grained functionality, and show, through clustering, how malicious applications may be grouped …

Mechanisms To Reduce Cyber Threats And Risks, Saad Alsuwaileh

Journal of Police and Legal Sciences

Addressing the mechanisms of reducing cyber threats and risks Research Because cyberspace is an important arena for various international interactions, especially in recent times in light of the increase in cyber-attacks between some countries, which affects their national security. In this context, many countries are trying to make an effort to develop their capabilities to be used in any cyber-attack, or to take adequate preventive measures to protect them from any possible cyberattacks, especially in light of the impact of these attacks on vital places and institutions such as banks and ministries or on important facilities such as water and …

Assessment Of Spatial Variability Of Groundwater Levels In Moroto District, Uganda, Augustina Clara Alexander Dr

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Globally, the variation of groundwater levels is increasingly overwhelming due to over exploitation resulting from population growth. The dynamic nature of socio-economic activities in Moroto District such as agriculture, settlements and increased trends in irrigation technology has been well-known worldwide as common parameters triggering groundwater variability. Nevertheless, determination of groundwater levels for groundwater management and development purpose is a challenge due to spatial variability in levels across Moroto District. In this study, geostatistical technique in Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to analyze spatial variability of water levels in the study area. The analysis utilized ordinary Kriging method to predict …

Machine Learning-Based Data And Model Driven Bayesian Uncertanity Quantification Of Inverse Problems For Suspended Non-Structural System, Zhiyuan Qin

All Dissertations

Inverse problems involve extracting the internal structure of a physical system from noisy measurement data. In many fields, the Bayesian inference is used to address the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem by incorporating prior information through an initial distribution. In the nonparametric Bayesian framework, surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes or Deep Neural Networks are used as flexible and effective probabilistic modeling tools to overcome the high-dimensional curse and reduce computational costs. In practical systems and computer models, uncertainties can be addressed through parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification, leading to improved reliability and robustness of decision and …

Quantification Of Various Types Of Biases In Large Language Models, Sudhashree Sayenju

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems are included everywhere on the internet from search engines, language translations to more advanced systems like voice assistant and customer service. Since humans are always on the receiving end of NLP technologies, it is very important to analyze whether or not the Large Language Models (LLMs) in use have bias and are therefore unfair. The majority of the research in NLP bias has focused on societal stereotype biases embedded in LLMs. However, our research focuses on all types of biases, namely model class level bias, stereotype bias and domain bias present in LLMs. Model class …

Self-Learning Algorithms For Intrusion Detection And Prevention Systems (Idps), Juan E. Nunez, Roger W. Tchegui Donfack, Rohit Rohit, Hayley Horn

SMU Data Science Review

Today, there is an increased risk to data privacy and information security due to cyberattacks that compromise data reliability and accessibility. New machine learning models are needed to detect and prevent these cyberattacks. One application of these models is cybersecurity threat detection and prevention systems that can create a baseline of a network's traffic patterns to detect anomalies without needing pre-labeled data; thus, enabling the identification of abnormal network events as threats. This research explored algorithms that can help automate anomaly detection on an enterprise network using Canadian Institute for Cybersecurity data. This study demonstrates that Neural Networks with Bayesian …

Application Of Big Data Technology, Text Classification, And Azure Machine Learning For Financial Risk Management Using Data Science Methodology, Oluwaseyi A. Ijogun

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Data science plays a crucial role in enabling organizations to optimize data-driven opportunities within financial risk management. It involves identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, ultimately safeguarding investments, reducing uncertainty, ensuring regulatory compliance, enhancing decision-making, and fostering long-term sustainability. This thesis explores three facets of Data Science projects: enhancing customer understanding, fraud prevention, and predictive analysis, with the goal of improving existing tools and enabling more informed decision-making. The first project examined leveraged big data technologies, such as Hadoop and Spark, to enhance financial risk management by accurately predicting loan defaulters and their repayment likelihood. In the second project, we investigated …

Cloud Container Security’ Next Move, Vishakha Sadhwani

Dissertations and Theses

In the last few years, it is apparent to cybersecurity experts everywhere that the proverbial container tech genie is out of the bottle, and has been widely embraced across multiple organizations. To achieve the flexibility of building and deploying applications anywhere and everywhere, cloud native environments have gained great momentum and made the development lifecycle simpler than ever. However, container environments brings with them a range of cybersecurity issues that includes images, containers, hosts, runtimes, registries, and orchestration platforms, which needs the necessity to focus on investing in securing your container stack.

According to this report[1], released by cloud-native …

Research On Uncertainties And Challenges Of Cyber Security In Maritime Industry, Qianrong Chen

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Adaptive Risk Network Dependency Analysis Of Complex Hierarchical Systems, Katherine L. Smith

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Recently the number, variety, and complexity of interconnected systems have been increasing while the resources available to increase resilience of those systems have been decreasing. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to quantify the effects of risks and the resulting disruptions over time as they ripple through networks of systems. This dissertation presents a novel modeling and simulation methodology which quantifies resilience, as impact on performance over time, and risk, as the impact of probabilistic disruptions. This work includes four major contributions over the state-of-the-art which are: (1) cyclic dependencies are captured by separation of performance variables into layers which …

The Effects Of Antecedents And Mediating Factors On Cybersecurity Protection Behavior, Ling Li, Li Xu, Wu He

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

This paper identifies opportunities for potential theoretical and practical improvements in employees' awareness of cybersecurity and their motivational behavior to protect themselves and their organizations from cyberattacks using the protection motivation theory. In addition, it contributes to the literature by examining additional variables and mediators besides the core constructs of the Protection Motivation Model (PMT). This article uses empirical data and structural equation modeling to test the antecedents and mediators of employees' cybersecurity motivational behavior. The study offers theoretical and pragmatic guidance for cybersecurity programs. First, the model developed in this study can partially explain how people may change their …

Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen

VMASC Publications

In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …

Integration Of Blockchain Technology Into Automobiles To Prevent And Study The Causes Of Accidents, John Kim

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automobile collisions occur daily. We now live in an information-driven world, one where technology is quickly evolving. Blockchain technology can change the automotive industry, the safety of the motoring public and its surrounding environment by incorporating this vast array of information. It can place safety and efficiency at the forefront to pedestrians, public establishments, and provide public agencies with pertinent information securely and efficiently. Other industries where Blockchain technology has been effective in are as follows: supply chain management, logistics, and banking. This paper reviews some statistical information regarding automobile collisions, Blockchain technology, Smart Contracts, Smart Cities; assesses the feasibility …

Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (Cmmc) Compliance For Dod Contractors, Sierra Burnett

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

The DoD is currently taking a supply-chain risk management strategy to foster cybersecurity. This unique strategy is often referred to as CMMC which stands for “Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification”. The approach requires that all the 300,000 DoD contractors acquire third-party authentication that may attain the requirements for the CMMC maturity level suitable to the work they desire to do for the DoD. CMMC typically examines the organization's capability to safeguard Federal Contract Information as well as CUI. It integrates various cybersecurity standards already in place and plots the best practices alongside processes to five maturity levels that range from the …

Quantifying Cyber Risk By Integrating Attack Graph And Impact Graph, Omer F. Keskin

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Being a relatively new risk source, models to quantify cyber risks are not well developed; therefore, cyber risk management in most businesses depends on qualitative assessments. With the increase in the economic consequences of cyber incidents, the importance of quantifying cyber risks has increased. Cyber risk quantification is also needed to establish communication among decision-makers of different levels of an enterprise, from technical personnel to top management.

The goal of this research is to build a probabilistic cybersecurity risk analysis model that relates attack propagation with impact propagation through internal dependencies and allows temporal analysis.

The contributions of the developed …

Modeling And Solving The Outsourcing Risk Management Problem In Multi-Echelon Supply Chains, Arian A. Nahangi

Master's Theses

Worldwide globalization has made supply chains more vulnerable to risk factors, increasing the associated costs of outsourcing goods. Outsourcing is highly beneficial for any company that values building upon its core competencies, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have exposed significant vulnerabilities within supply chains. These disruptions forced a shift in the production of goods from outsourcing to domestic methods.

This paper considers a multi-echelon supply chain model with global and domestic raw material suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and markets. All levels within the supply chain network are evaluated from a holistic perspective, calculating a total …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Cybersecurity Risk Assessment Using Graph Theoretical Anomaly Detection And Machine Learning, Goksel Kucukkaya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The cyber domain is a great business enabler providing many types of enterprises new opportunities such as scaling up services, obtaining customer insights, identifying end-user profiles, sharing data, and expanding to new communities. However, the cyber domain also comes with its own set of risks. Cybersecurity risk assessment helps enterprises explore these new opportunities and, at the same time, proportionately manage the risks by establishing cyber situational awareness and identifying potential consequences. Anomaly detection is a mechanism to enable situational awareness in the cyber domain. However, anomaly detection also requires one of the most extensive sets of data and features …

Developing An Artificial Intelligence Framework To Assess Shipbuilding And Repair Sub-Tier Supply Chains Risk, Rafael Diaz, Katherine Smith, Beatriz Acero, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano

VMASC Publications

The defense shipbuilding and repair industry is a labor-intensive sector that can be characterized by low-product volumes and high investments in which a large number of shared resources, technology, suppliers, and processes asynchronously converge into large construction projects. It is mainly organized by the execution of a complex combination of sequential and overlapping stages. While entities engaged in this large-scale endeavor are often knowledgeable about their first-tier suppliers, they usually do not have insight into the lower tiers suppliers. A sizable part of any supply chain disruption is attributable to instabilities in sub-tier suppliers. This research note conceptually delineates a …

Human Supremacy As Posthuman Risk, Daniel Estrada

The Journal of Sociotechnical Critique

Human supremacy is the widely held view that human interests ought to be privileged over other interests as a matter of ethics and public policy. Posthumanism is the historical situation characterized by a critical reevaluation of anthropocentrist theory and practice. This paper draws on animal studies, critical posthumanism, and the critique of ideal theory in Charles Mills and Serene Khader to address the appeal to human supremacist rhetoric in AI ethics and policy discussions, particularly in the work of Joanna Bryson. This analysis identifies a specific risk posed by human supremacist policy in a posthuman context, namely the classification of …

Design And Test Of An Autonomy Monitoring Service To Detect Divergent Behaviors On Unmanned Aerial Systems, Loay Y. Almannaei

Theses and Dissertations

Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) support many critical missions in the United State Air Force (USAF). Monitoring abnormal behavior is one of many responsibilities of the operator during a mission. Some behaviors are hard to be detect by an operator, especially when flying one or more autonomous vehicles; as such, detections require a high level of attention and focus to flight parameters. In this research, a monitoring system and its algorithm are designed and tested for a target fixed-wing UAV. The Autonomy Monitoring Service (AMS) compares the real vehicle or simulated Vehicle with a similar simulated vehicle using Software …

Data-Driven Investment Decisions In P2p Lending: Strategies Of Integrating Credit Scoring And Profit Scoring, Yan Wang

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop and discuss several loan evaluation methods to guide the investment decisions for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. In evaluating loans, credit scoring and profit scoring are the two widely utilized approaches. Credit scoring aims at minimizing the risk while profit scoring aims at maximizing the profit. This dissertation addresses the strengths and weaknesses of each scoring method by integrating them in various ways in order to provide the optimal investment suggestions for different investors. Before developing the methods for loan evaluation at the individual level, we applied the state-of-the-art method called the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) …

Modeling Hydrologic Impacts Of Tribal Water Rights Quantification And Settlement On The Flathead Indian Irrigation Project, Jordan Andrew Jimmie

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

The Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes (CSKT) of the Flathead Reservation are a federally-recognized group of tribes (Kootenai, Salish, and Pend d’Oreille) located in western Montana. On the reservation lies the expansive Flathead Indian Irrigation Project (FIIP), which supplies irrigation water to approximately 127,000 acres of tribal and non-tribal agricultural land. The 1904 Flathead Allotment Act opened “surplus” land to non-native homesteaders without tribal consent, initiating the land ownership fragmentation observed on the reservation today. This legacy, combined with historically unquantified tribal reserved water rights and the antiquated state of the FIIP infrastructure, including water losses from unlined earthen canals, …

The Potentials Of Faecal Sludge Treatment Using Local Conditioners In Tanzania: A Review, Doglas Benjamin1

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Worldwide, every day human beings generate millions of tons of Faecal Sludge (FS), which is rich in water, nutrients, energy, and organic compounds. Yet FS is not being managed in a way that permits us to derive value from its reuse, while at the same time, millions of farmers struggle with depleted soils and lack of water. In most of the developing countries, energy for cooking is mainly derived from cutting of trees, either as wood or charcoal. Resource recovery and reuse from FS can create livelihoods, enhance food security, support green economies, reduce waste and contribute to cost recovery …

The Performance Cost Of Security, Lucy R. Bowen

Master's Theses

Historically, performance has been the most important feature when optimizing computer hardware. Modern processors are so highly optimized that every cycle of computation time matters. However, this practice of optimizing for performance at all costs has been called into question by new microarchitectural attacks, e.g. Meltdown and Spectre. Microarchitectural attacks exploit the effects of microarchitectural components or optimizations in order to leak data to an attacker. These attacks have caused processor manufacturers to introduce performance impacting mitigations in both software and silicon.

To investigate the performance impact of the various mitigations, a test suite of forty-seven different tests was created. …