Risk Analysis Commons^™

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

Analyzing And Improving Stochastic Network Security: A Multicriteria Prescriptive Risk Analysis Model, David L. Lyle

Theses and Dissertations

This research optimized two measures of network security by hardening components and improving their reliability. A common measure of effectiveness (MOE) for networks is statistical reliability, which ignores the effects of hostile actions. A new MOE which includes hostile actions was developed. Both measures require component reliability functions, derived using fault trees. Fuzzy Logic and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify uncertainty. Results from the model are compared to traditional Risk Assessment results.