Systems Engineering Commons^™

Reverse Decision Making And Goal Attainment A Proof Of Concept As A New Approach To The Decision Making Process Under Uncertainty, Shitalkumar S. Sabne

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Decision making occurs when one must choose among alternatives. However, in uncertain environments where problems are complex and decision makers lack complete knowledge of the situation as well as decision alternatives, it's not possible for them to select an optimal decision outcome by 'Traditional Decision Approaches'. At present Reverse Decision Making is the central, although new and unproved, approach of Old Dominion University's Engineering Management and Systems Engineering research on decision making process for uncertain and complex situations. Even though research in decision making spans over one hundred years, there are still important problems which remain to be addressed.

There …

The Analytic Hierarchy & The Analytic Network Processes In Multicriteria Decision Making: A Comparative Study, Ali K. Taslicali

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The objective of this investigation is to identify the critical benefits and factors of decision making models in a changing technological environment. Decision making models are helping tools for the managers or decision makers to make future plans by using qualitative or quantitative data. In this research, a general idea about decision making models and, comparison between the two important models, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Analytical Network Process (ANP), are introduced. The research was done by using the information in the literature and expert judgment. This paper can be used by academics as a foundation for further …

An Integrated Framework For Modeling And Simulation Of The U.S. Southern Border: A Border Patrol Perspective, Shannon R. Bowling, Ghaith Rabadi, Charles Keating

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Border Security is a complex system consisting of many interrelated components that must function as a whole in order to be effective. The efficacy of border security is dependent on several independent agencies; these include U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Department of Justice (DOJ), state and local law enforcement, and many others. Border security is not only a function of how well each of the agencies perform individually but also how well they interact to accomplish a goal. This paper attempts to model border security from a Border Patrol (BP) perspective using discrete …

A Dynamic Heuristic For The Stochastic Unrelated Parallel Machine Scheduling Problem, Jean-Paul Arnaout, Ghaith Rabadi, Ji Hyon Mun

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

This paper addresses the problem of batch scheduling in an unrelated parallel machine environment with sequence dependent setup times and an objective of minimizing the total weighted mean completion time. The jobs' processing times and setup times are stochastic for better depiction of the real world. This is a NP-hard problem and in this paper, new heuristics are developed and compared to existing ones using simulation. The results and analysis obtained from the computational experiments proved the superiority of the proposed algorithm PMWP over the other algorithms presented.

Management Of System Of Systems Engineering: System Of Systems Engineering Requirements, Charles Keating, Andres Sousa-Poza, Samuel Kovacic

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Traditional systems engineering focuses efforts on developing requirements that are assumed to be objective, definitive, and unwavering. However, the function, development, and utilization of requirements for System of Systems Engineering (SoSE) do not have the level of maturity or sophistication as traditional systems engineering. To avoid miscalculation of the nature and role of requirements in SoSE, a closer examination is necessary. It would be presumptuous to assume that SoSE requirements are a simple extrapolation of traditional systems engineering requirements. The purpose of this paper is to explore the nature of requirements from a SoSE perspective. This examination is concentrated in …

Assimilating Non-Probabilistic Assessments Of The Estimation Of Uncertainty Bias In Expert Judgment Elicitation Using An Evidence Based Approach In High Consequence Conceptual Designs, Colin K. S. Barrows

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

One of the major challenges in conceptual designs of complex systems is the identification of uncertainty embedded in the information due to lack of historic data. This becomes of increased concern especially in high-risk industries. This document reports a developed methodology that allows for the cognitive bias, estimation of uncertainty, to be elucidated to improve the quality of elicited data. It consists of a comprehensive literature review that begins by defining a 'High Consequence Conceptual Engineering Environment' and identifies the high-risk industries in which these environments are found. It proceeds with a discussion that differentiates risk and uncertainty in decision-making …

A Conceptual Framework For Analysis Of System Safety Interoperability Of United States Navy's Combat Systems, Showkat Shanaz Alborzi

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Today's political and military reality requires the optimal use of our legacy systems. The objective is to maximize the effectiveness of our operations by efficient allocation, placement and the use of our forces and war-fighting systems. The synergism drawn from the capabilities of the legacy complex systems enables today's war-fighting needs to be met without substantial increase in cost or resources. This synergism can be realized by the effective integration and interoperation of legacy systems into a larger, more complex system of systems.

However, the independently developed legacy systems in this new tactical environment often have different data types, languages, …

Quantifying Vulnerability To Critical Infrastructure, Barry Charles Ezell

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Military and civilian leaders have the responsibility to protect our Nation's critical infrastructure, communities, and symbols of American power from terrorists, home and abroad, as well as from natural disasters. To this end, assessments are conducted to reduce vulnerability. The literature offers multiple definitions of vulnerability and measurement has not been adequately addressed. Thus, the purpose of this research has been to develop and deploy a systems-based model that quantifies vulnerability to critical infrastructure. This research defines critical infrastructure vulnerability as a measure of the susceptibility of critical infrastructure to threat scenarios. Vulnerability is a function of (1) threat scenario, …

A Systems Methodology For Measuring Operational Organization Effectiveness: A Study Of The Original Equipment Computer Manufacturing Industry, 1948 To 2001, Teddy Steven Cotter

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Optimizing operational organizational effectiveness is the central, although often unstated, goal of engineering management and systems engineering research and applications. Two fundamental problems remain to be addressed in pursuit of this goal. First, despite over fifty years of research in various disciplines, there is still no universally accepted definition of organizational effectiveness. Second, no methodology exists to identify the domains, dimensions, and determinants of operational organizational effectiveness and dynamically model operational organizational effectiveness within a given population.

This research synthesizes a systems engineering methodology for identifying the domains, dimensions, and determinants of and dynamically modeling operational organizational effectiveness for an …

Software Development Project Risk Management: A Literature Review, Kevin Macg. Adams, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The rapid and unprecedented growth in software has brought with it some of the most spectacular and costly project failures in modern history. How risk management is presented in the scholarly journals may give insight into the risk management methods and techniques in use on software development projects. This paper provides a glimpse into the risk management methods, methodologies and techniques available to those who are responsible for software development projects by conducting a non-experimental content analysis. The findings reveal that risk management has not received sufficient attention and does not appear to be widely accepted within the software engineering …

Development Of A System Of Systems Engineering Method, Ji Hyon Mun, Morgan Henrie, Yaneth Correa, Charles Keating, Andres Sousa-Poza

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Systems engineers have been facing challenges with the design and analysis of multiple complex systems. System of Systems Engineering has emerged to assist in this challenge with the systemic analysis, design, and transformation of complex metasystems. This paper outlines a proposed method to overcome these challenges, which is grounded in System of Systems Engineering principles and methodology. An overview of System of Systems Engineering will be provided for understanding of its significance and the attempt to complement Systems Engineering efforts in dealing with the aforementioned challenges. Finally, discussion on the proposed method, with respect to complex system analysis, is provided.

Management Of Extremes In The Configuration Of Interoffice Telephone Switch & Priority Systems, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

This paper describes how to enable diverse enterprise customers for voice-data switch to achieve in configuration a balance among users, features, and perceived reliability subject to extremes of traffic. The analysis entailed the simulation of the voice-data switch with embedded priority system, generation of latency times for various configurations and transaction traffic rates, and the development of a framework and theoretical propositions for configuration of super-saturated systems. It was shown that the concept of tolerance levels defined in the risk of extreme events can be applied for embedded priority systems and was the basis for the application of the zone-configuration …

Complex System Transformation: A System Of Systems Engineering (Sose) Perspective, Charles B. Keating, Andres Sousa-Poza, Samuel Kovacic

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to develop a perspective for complex system transformation from a System of Systems Engineering (SoSE) viewpoint. This is a first attempt to make explicit a SoSE viewpoint on complex system transformation. As such, the formulation is intended to escalate the dialog and integrate the current state of understanding with respect to the nature, utility, and implications of complex system transformation in SoSE terms. To achieve our purpose we will: (1) present a short introduction that provides an essential background for SoSE, (2) provide five fundamental systems concepts that underlie a SoSE perspective of complex …

Managing The Transformation Of System Of Systems Engineering, Samuel F. Kovacic, Andres Sousa-Poza

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

SOSE methodologies exist that support engineering difficult and disparate systems with a technical solution. However, from literature it is apparent that there is a need for a formal methodology and methods that govern engineering of System of Systems (SOS) beyond the technical solution. This paper presents some of the current thinking being undertaken at NCSOSE (National Centers for Systems of Systems Engineering), on what is driving the development of SOSE, and a hypothesized solution to this problem. The purpose is to offer a different approach for resolving complexity within a situation. The paper concludes with an initial derivative of a …

Complex System Contextual Framework (Cscf): A Grounded-Theory Construction For The Articulation Of System Context In Addressing Complex Systems Problems, W. B. Max Crownover

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The complexity of problems facing society continues to grow, and decision-makers and problem-solvers are finding many of today's emerging problems to be beyond their capability to adequately address. There is agreement in the literature that problems of this nature are complex system problems, inextricably linked to some highly complex system of systems. Establishing a clear understanding of the specific complex system context is fundamental to the process of understanding and analyzing complex systems and complex system problems across all of the different systems-based disciplines. While complex system context is widely referred to in systems literature, there is no clear characterization …

Application Of Queuing Theory And Procedure Time Estimation In A Local Healthcare System, Galina Tsoy

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

People in the United States pay more for their basic healthcare needs than do people in any other nation in the world. When we consider that the United States is the wealthiest nation in the world, controlling the majority of the world's resources, it seems only reasonable to ask: Why should it be this way?

In an effort to address this problem, this thesis examines two possible methods of improving health care efficiency in hospitals. The thesis is thus in two parts: the first part examines resource allocation in medical units using Queuing Theory, and the second part examines a …

Stability Analysis Of Jump-Linear Systems Driven By Finite-State Machines With Markovian Inputs, Sudarshan S. Patilkulkarni

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A control system with a fault recovery mechanism in the feedback loop and with faults occurring in a non-deterministic manner can be modeled as a class of hybrid systems, i.e., a dynamical system switched by a finite-state machine or an automaton. When the plant and controller are linear, such a system can be modeled as a jump-linear system driven by a finite-state machine with a random input process. Such fault recovery mechanisms are found in flight control systems and distributed control systems with communication networks. In these critical applications, closed-loop stability of the system in the presence of fault recoveries …

Development Of An Expert Judgement Elicitation And Calibration Methodology For Risk Analysis In Conceptual Vehicle Design, Resit Unal, Charles Keating, Bruce Conway, Trina Chytka

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference …

Development Of A Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System With Application To The Economic Optimization Of Aircraft Based Weather Data Collection, Ganzague Erol Osman Ozan

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research is motivated by the economic optimization of the Troposherical Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR), an aircraft-based meteorological data collection system. In the envisioned TAMDAR system, meteorological data collected by the onboard sensors of selected aircraft are transmitted to the ground as aircraft fly their missions. The data is processed by a national center, which disseminates the data to diverse users such as weather forecasters and aviation control centers. Substantial government funding is required for the implementation and operation of this new data acquisition system and data transmission expenditures constitute the largest portion of the costs. To achieve economic …

A Statistical Evaluation Of Risk Priority Numbers In Failure Modes And Effects Analysis Applied To The Prediction Of Complex Systems, Anthony W. Dean

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Complex systems such as military aircraft and naval ships are difficult to cost effectively maintain. Frequently, large-scale maintenance of complex systems (i.e., a naval vessel) is based on the reduction of the system to its base subcomponents and the use of manufacturer-suggested, time-directed, preventative maintenance, which is augmented during the systems lifecycle with predictive maintenance which assesses the system's ability to perform its mission objectives. While preventative maintenance under certain conditions can increase reliability, preventative maintenance systems are often costly, increase down time, and allow for maintenance-induced failures, which may decrease the reliability of the system (Ebeling, 1997). This maintenance …

Calibrating Expert Assessments Of Advanced Aerospace Technology Adoption Impact, Bruce A. Conway

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development of expert judgment calibration methodology as part of elicitation of the expert judgments to assist in the task of quantifying parameter uncertainty for proposed new aerospace vehicles. From previous work, it has been shown that experts in the field of aerospace systems design and development can provide valuable input into the sizing and conceptual design of future space launch vehicles employing advanced technology. In particular (and of specific interest in this case), assessment of operations and support cost implications of adopting proposed new technology is frequently asked of the experts. Often the input consisting of …

Information System Product Development By Integration Of Kano's Customer Satisfaction Model With Quality Function Deployment, Afife Yesim Sireli

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Product development of complex, innovative information technology related systems presents difficult challenges for technology managers, and new product failures are a significant problem. The main reason for this is insufficient decision-making due to the lack of a customer-oriented product development process in the information system (IS) companies, which is often related to deficiencies in cooperation between R&D and marketing departments. Integrating consumer requirements into the product design phase is an important factor for improving market success. Therefore, a product development decision model is needed for the managers of information system companies to make more accurate decisions about the characteristics of …

Developing A Methodology To Detect Partial Failures For Dynamic Systems, Anwar A. Al-Jowder

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to develop a decision support system that can assist in detecting partial failures in dynamic systems such as Fire Control System Tracking Radar (TR) onboard Naval Ships. Partial failures do not necessarily shut down the system immediately but cause degradation of operational performance. Previous work has shown that experts in the field of failure detection, test point insertion and Built-In-Test Equipment (BITE) can provide useful input in detecting partial failures. Partial failures affect operational system performance and support costs, which can be significant. Often, however, partial failure detection consists of the estimations and opinions …

The Effect Of Model Formulation On The Comparative Performance Of Artificial Neural Networks And Regression, Michael F. Cochrane

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Multiple linear regression techniques have been traditionally used to construct predictive statistical models, relating one or more independent variables (inputs) to a dependent variable (output). Artificial neural networks can also be constructed and trained to learn these complex relationships, and have been shown to perform at least as well as linear regression on the same data sets. Research on the use of neural network models as alternatives to multivariate linear regression has focused predominantly on the effects of sample size, noise, and input vector size on the comparative performance of these two modeling techniques. However, research has also shown that …

Simulation Optimization Studies Of Routing And Process Flow Problems, Satish Ravichandran

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Computer aided simulation is emerging as a powerful tool for numerical analysis and in conducting performance evaluations of complex systems that depend on a multitude of variables. The primary objective in such simulation studies is to gauge the performance of the system under a various constraints and operating conditions. The effects of changing the operating parameter space can thus be analyzed without having to implement costly changes. Simulations are also carried out for the baseline scenarios to verity and validate the basic underlying system model. In this thesis research, two practical problems were studied through numerical modeling, and optimized solutions …

A Model To Evaluate The Effect Of Organizational Adaptation, Holly A. H. Handley, Alexander H. Levis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

When an organization’s output declines due to either internal changes or changes in its external environment, it needs to adapt. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies on organizational per- formance, an organizational model composed of individual models of a five stage interacting decision maker was designed using an object oriented design approach and implemented as a Colored Petri net. The concept of entropy is used to calculate the total activity value, a surrogate for decision maker workload, based on the functional partition and the adaptation strategy being implemented. The individual decision maker’s total activity is monitored, …

A Systems-Based Methodology For The Construction And Representation Of Organizational Knowledge Systems, Willie James Mcfadden

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop and apply a systems-based, analysis methodology which constructs and represents an organization's knowledge system. The research inquiry was guided by four questions: (1) “what is an organizational knowledge system?” (2) “how can it be made explicit?” (3) “does the representation accurately depict the organization's perspective of their unique knowledge system?” and (4) “what results from the deployment of the organizational knowledge system methodology?” The resultant answers to these research questions advanced and established the theoretical conception of an organization's knowledge system through the development of a methodology that fosters the construction and …

Exploring Participation Processes For Technology Development: Case Studies Of Biotechnology Research And Development Projects In Thailand, Omjai Yuktavetya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

There is increased awareness in the organizational and management literature that participation can make contributions in technology development. One of the problems in developing biotechnology in Thailand is that only a small portion of publicly funded research and development projects directly result in commercial success. Among the reasons cited (TDRI 1992a) is a lack of collaboration between various stakeholders; therefore, an effective technology policy to support their participation is needed. This research explores current participation processes in biotechnology research and development projects in Thailand in which there were different perspectives among various stakeholders. The quantitative and qualitative methodologies developed here …

Meta-Ethnographic Development Of A Dialogue Methodology Applied To Organization Discourse, Shelley P. Gallup

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A gap exists between theoretical stances that acknowledge the importance of dialogue as a dynamic within socially constructed structures, and "steersmanship" of those constructs--e.g., directing, intervening or transforming organizations. A "mechanism" which links theory with practice is missing, leaving practitioners with an acknowledgment of dialogue's central position, but without tools to enact this centrality in practice or research. This research constructs a conceptual model of dialogue, derived from the literature. Using this model as a base, the research seeks to generate a dialogue methodology bridging theory and practice with respect to organizational dialogue. The model, methodology, and research results are …

Consortia As Technology Innovation Management Vehicles: Toward A Framework For Success In Venture Based Public-Private Partnerships, Ralph B. Saunders Ii

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to explore the approach by federal/state agencies, university, and private sector consortia to develop and manage commercialization of innovation technologies. The evaluation, support, and management of technologically based consortia has traditionally been held in the private sector. There is a somewhat mature literature guiding innovation management (Utterback 1996; Rosenberg et al. 1994; Quinn 1997, 1992) in the private sector. However, there is an increasing emergence of consortia consisting of universities, industrial/private sector entities, and government agencies joining in collaborative efforts to launch technology based initiatives. These consortia are non-traditional and the applicability of traditional …