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Assimilating Non-Probabilistic Assessments Of The Estimation Of Uncertainty Bias In Expert Judgment Elicitation Using An Evidence Based Approach In High Consequence Conceptual Designs, Colin K. S. Barrows

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

One of the major challenges in conceptual designs of complex systems is the identification of uncertainty embedded in the information due to lack of historic data. This becomes of increased concern especially in high-risk industries. This document reports a developed methodology that allows for the cognitive bias, estimation of uncertainty, to be elucidated to improve the quality of elicited data. It consists of a comprehensive literature review that begins by defining a 'High Consequence Conceptual Engineering Environment' and identifies the high-risk industries in which these environments are found. It proceeds with a discussion that differentiates risk and uncertainty in decision-making …