Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons^™

Prediction And Evaluation Of Road Service Performance In Cold Regions Based On Uncertainty Quantification Theory, Liu Yuanyuan, Si Junling, Zheng Hao, Ren Daoju, Fan Shaobing, Quan Lei

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

In cold regions,road service performance is influenced by various nonlinear dynamic factors under complex hydrothermal environments and freeze-thaw cycles.Traditional empirical and mechanical models exhibit significant limitations in comprehensively considering the impacts of complex environments and conducting quantitative analyses.This study proposed a method to predict and assess the service performance of constructed roads in cold regions.The method integrated deep neural networks with uncertainty quantification theory,addressing the inadequacies of existing models in adapting to complex environments and analyzing multiple influencing factors.By utilizing data from Montana road sections in the LTPP database,the study employed deep neural networks to predict the international roughness index …

Tidal Flooding Contributes To Eutrophication: Constraining Nonpoint Source Inputs To An Urban Estuary Using A Data Driven Statistical Model, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, Sophie Clayton, Peter W. Bernhardt, Thomas R. Allen

OES Faculty Publications

In coastal urban areas, tidal flooding brings water carrying nutrients and particles back from land to estuarine and coastal waters. A statistical model to predict nutrient loads during tidal flooding events can help estimate nutrient loading from previous and future flooding events and adapt nutrient reduction strategies. We measured concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus in floodwater at seven sentinel sites during 15 tidal flooding events from January 2019 to September 2020. The study area was the Lafayette River watershed in Norfolk, VA, USA, which is prone to tidal flooding and is predicted to experience more frequent and intense …

A National Assessment Of State Level Culvert Management Plans, Steven Michael Carvalho Jr

Honors Theses and Capstones

In this paper, infrastructure asset management was explored, particularly culvert management, with the main objective being the investigation of culvert management plans nationally in the United States of America. These documents were collected, categorized for context, and evaluated for the addressing of increasingly important concepts for modern times. These research parameters, prioritization strategy, social equity, and climate change, were then compared to two other considerations to create more inferences and potential conclusions: geographical region and political ideology. A statistical analysis was then conducted spearheaded by Spearman’s correlation, a test that measured the strength of a potential correlation between two variables. …

Impact Of Irrigation On Vulnerability Of Winter Wheat Under Extreme Climate Change Scenario: A Case Study Of North China Plain, Yulian Gao, Lin Wang, Yaojie Yue

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

An inadequate understanding of the impacts of adaptation countermeasures tends to exaggerate the adverse e􀀀ects of climate change on agricultural systems. Motivated by proposing reasonable climate change adaptation countermeasures, the present study applied the EPIC model to quantify the impacts of climate change and irrigation changes with future socioeconomic development on agricultural production. Winter wheat yield losses using dynamic irrigation parameters in the North China Plain (NCP) from 2010 to 2099 under a scenario coupling climate change and future socioeconomic development (RCP8.5-SSP3), and those under an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5), were simulated. Results show that EPIC model demonstrates superior …

Study Of Surface And Groundwater Quality And Quantity At Watershed Scale In Mississippi, Dipesh Nepal

Theses and Dissertations

Hydrology and water quality are affected by land use and climate changes. Mississippi’s diverse agro–ecosystem comprises of a range of land use land cover (LULC) including agriculture, forest, wetlands, urban, and grasslands. The objectives of this study were to investigate the impacts of various factors such as Best Management Practices (BMPs), wetlands, LULC, and climate changes on water quality and quantity. The hydrologic and water quality responses to dynamic LULC input in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated. Results showed that agricultural and forest expansion were major drivers of hydrologic and water quality changes in Big Sunflower River …

Impact Of Regional Climate Changes On Changes In River Water Content In Uzbekistan, A.T. Salokhiddinov, P.A. Khakimova, R.V. Toryanniova, O.A. Ashirova, A.G. Gofurov

Irrigation and Melioration

The paper presents the research results on the analysis of the climate change impacts on the potential of water resources in Central Asia. We analyzed the materials of an extensive database of monitoring data from numerous gauge stations on different river basins and satellite data information. A quantitative assessment of the transformation of river hydrographs, the growth of flow variability in the Republic of Uzbekistan's major rivers, in connection with climate change, was performed. The specific features of the impact of climate changes on changes in the water content of rivers in Uzbekistan in large and small river basins are …

Assessment Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Hydrological Processes In The Chirchik River Basin, Kh.Sh. Gafforov, Sh.D. Sh.D.Tursunboev

Irrigation and Melioration

The importance of assessing past and future climate differences plays an important role in future planning in relation to climate change. This situation requires urgent and concerted action in several areas: technology, infrastructure, politics, economics, and the environment. The article evaluates the impact of changes in precipitation intensity on the water level in the global circulation model (GCM) RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. This study is a useful reference for improving water resource management and ensuring the sustainability of agricultural products in the future, as well as for improving operational water management and agricultural …

Empirical Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Agriculture In Samarkand Region, Sh.B. Babakholov

Irrigation and Melioration

Agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate factors like other endogenous factors, and the expected climate change projections may have a negative impact on the efficiency and income of agricultural producers. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors (average air temperature and precipitation) on the technical efficiency of cotton growing farmers as its determinants in Samarkand region. Empirical analyzes were performed on the cases of 1141 cotton-growing farms using panel-based Time-Invariant Inefficiency model. According to the results of the analysis, cotton farms in the region have an average technical efficiency of 76%, which in …

Economic Assesment Of The Impact Of Climate Factors On Wheat Yield In Samarkand Region, Sh.B. Babakholov

Irrigation and Melioration

Agricultural production is highly vulnerable to climate shocks and predicted climate consequences may pose severe challenges to the resilience of Uzbek agricultural system, especially in terms of food security and income stability of rural producers. In this context, present study proposed to assess the impact of climate factors, such particular changes in mean temperature and rainfalls on total output of wheat-cultivating farmers in Samarkand region. By considering irrigation source and heterogeneous geography of the region, farmers engaged in wheat production were analyzed in two: upstream and downstream zones using Fixed effect panel approach. The empirical findings of study revealed that, …

Determination And Assessment Of The Spatio-Temporal Changing Dynamics In The Groundwater Level And Mineralization In Irrigated Areas Under Climate Change (As An Example Of Syrdarya Province), S. Khasanov, S. Adilov, R. Kulmatov

Irrigation and Melioration

In the irrigated lands of the Aral Sea Basin, salinization processes are taking place as a result of rising groundwater levels and increasing its mineralization due to the unsustainable use of water and land resources. This, in turn, leads to the withdrawing of arable land and a decrease in crop yields. This is especially the case in the irrigated areas of the lower reaches of the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers, located in Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. This research was aimed to learn and evaluate the long-term changing behavior of groundwater level and mineralization in the irrigated areas of the …

Assessing The Impacts Of Super Storm Flooding In The Transportation Infrastructure – Case Study: San Antonio, Texas, Marcio Giacomoni, Francisco Olivera, Cesar Do Lago

Publications

Flooding are likely to increase worldwide due to climate change. Large storms, referred here as superstorms, defined as events with return period equal or larger than 100 years, can lead to an increase of property damages and loss of life. The ability to predict and plan for the impacts of superstorms on transportation infrastructure is key to mitigate future damages and losses. This study analyzed 51 combinations of future projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which were used to calculate future 1st and 3rd quartiles, median, minimum and maximum intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF). A HEC-HMS and GSSHA …

Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson

Wrack Lines

Issue theme is: "Making Connections: As the Climate Changes, People and Nature Intertwine in New Ways." Articles include: "As More Roads Become Rivers, Communities Search for Solutions;" "Solving an Engineering Conundrum: As Coastal Homes Get Elevated, New Research Looks at Whether Vulnerability to Wind Damage Is Increasing;" "Along the Coast, Residents Consider How to Heed Sandy's Warning of What's to Come;" "All Rivers, All Lives Run to the Sea," about the intersection of waterways and the world of nature writer Edwin Way Teale; and "Crosscurrents: Connecticut Sea Grant's Retrospective Exhibition Makes Waves," about reaching new audiences and building bridges with …

Aesthetics, Ethics, And Lose-Lose Dilemmas In The Anthropocen, Adam Liska

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

Anthropogenic climate change will cause violence to increase globally, and nonlinear increases in sea level could cause a major escalation in global conflict. After 2100, a 22-meter sea-level rise is estimated here to dislocate two billion people from coastal areas. These impending civilization-changing events require us to again reevaluate our prevalent aesthetic preferences for luxury that produce a significant fraction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Due to industrial inertia, a central dilemma discussed here is the contradictions between the goals and impacts of aesthetics and ethics. Either we lose our own well-being (a loss of high-emission aesthetics) for the benefit …

Perceptions Of Vulnerability To Flooding, Hurricanes, And Climate Change On Grand Isle, Louisiana’S Only Inhabited Barrier Island, Lauren Miller

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study used in-depth interviews of permanent residents on Grand Isle, Louisiana, a remote barrier island, to better understand their perceptions of structural flood measures, non-structural responses to flooding and hurricanes, and perceptions of vulnerability to flooding, hurricanes, and climate change on a remote barrier island-Grand Isle, Louisiana. Residents' perceptions regarding the various structural measures implemented by the federal, state, and local government appeared mixed. Non-structural responses to flooding risks implemented at the household, community, state, and federal level continue to strengthen resiliency on Grand Isle. According to interviewees, aspects of environmental, rural, and economic vulnerability on Grand Isle impact …

Prediction And Rehabilitation Of Highway Embankment Slope Failures In Changing Climate, Navid Jafari, Anand Puppala

Data

Corresponding data set for Tran-SET Project No. 17GTLSU04. Abstract of the final report is stated below for reference:

"Highway slopes constructed with clayey soil are prone to desiccation cracks due to wetting and drying weather cycle, which allows greater moisture infiltration into the embankment from precipitation. Fissures formed due to extended wetting and drying cycles allow water to seep deeper into the soil than surficial wetting and increase the water content. This increases the moisture content in the soil and results in reduction in shear strength to the fully softened strength. On the other hand, development of desiccation cracks and …

Reconciling Information From Climate-Economic Model Ensembles, A. Shchiptsova, D. Kovalevsky, E. Rovenskaya

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To date, no model building process can guarantee full representation of the complex climate-economic processes and narrow down the uncertainty associated with future climate projections. Multiple highly detailed models are developed by individual research groups to capture various known aspects of the climate processes. Normally, these models represent only a part of the climate-society system due to its complexity. On the other hand, a number of the simplified integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been put forward in the attempt to introduce the full causal loop between accumulated emissions, economy and climate, and study associated uncertainty. We present a simplified system …

Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments, Antoine Colmet Daage, Sophie Ricci, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Eric Servat, Cécile Llovel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features (karst, soil moisture, land use).The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. A number of historical flood events, previously …

Informing Adaptive Strategies For The Colorado Basin, David Groves, Robert Lempert, Jordan Fischbach, Evan Bloom

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Colorado River is the single most important source of water in the southwestern United States, providing water and power for nearly 40 million people and water to irrigate more than five million acres of farmland across seven states and for 22 Native American tribes. A vast physical and institutional infrastructure exists to provide water, as well as hydropower, recreational opportunities, environmental services, and other benefits to all these users. However, increasing demand, a decade of drought, and expectations of a significantly changing future climate have put the system under significant and deeply uncertain stress. This paper employs and extends …

Water Resource Management With The Management Software Manuela, Monika Von Haaren

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The impact of climate change with increasing droughts will lead to an increase of water consumption in agriculture. Even in Germany, agricultural land is already irrigated intensively to secure harvests at a higher level. The demand for additional irrigation will lead to conflicts between agriculture, water management and nature conservation. This paper shows a new way for the evaluation of water use in agricultural farming. With the developed method stakeholder can assess the water consumption for irrigation in agriculture, which is transferable, regionally applicable and comparable. The water-module is available as a new plug-in in the management software MANUELA and …

Modelling Adaptive Behaviour In Spatial Agent-­Based Models: Coastal Cities And Climate Change, Tatiana Filatova, Erik Horstman, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher, Ju-­Sung Lee, Johan De Waard

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A major part of world population lives in coastal and delta areas threatened by adverse consequences of climate change (increasing probabilities or severity of floods and hurricanes). It might lead to a forced displacement of up to 187 million people in coastal zones. Still, exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas rapidly escalate due to the clustering of population and growth of property values in flood-­prone areas. Land markets driven by individual location preferences are crucial in the formation of spatial patterns of activities and the economic value they receive. Under the conditions of uncertainty where probabilistic disasters and rich amenities …

Explicit Cost Accounting For Adaptation, Mitigation And Ecosystem Service Provision In Agriculture, Franz Sinabell, Karin Heinschink, Christoph Tribl

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Farmers, policy makers and scientists are well aware of this problem: obtaining sound cost information for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture or ecosystem service provision by agriculture is burdensome. In most cases, data sets are developed for a specific region with a given set of management variants for a baseline period. Adapting such information to another region or adjusting costs to expected future price scenarios requires additional efforts and frequently done an ad-hoc and case by case. A new tool is presented that can be used to identify and analyze the entangled effects of future climate and …

Autoflow© - A Novel Application For Water Resource Management And Climate Change Response Using Smart Technology, Khoi Anh Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Rodney Anthony Stewart, Hong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Several analysis platforms have been developed worldwide to help effectively control and response to these impacts from different angles, including water resources management, energy production and consumption management, air pollution control, or other natural resources management. To contribute to this goal, Griffith University in Australia has developed Autoflow^©, a smart application for water demand analysis and carbon emission monitoring and prediction. Various advanced mathematical models have been …

Hydrological Water Resources Assessment Of Cega-Eresma-Adaja Watershed System Using Swat Model, David A. Rivas, Angel De Miguel, Bárbara Willarts

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the hydrological assessment of water bodies, modeling is a key fact in water management strategies of watersheds and serves as a tool for decision making considering environmental issues as the core of sustainable development in the region. In this direction, SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess the water availability related with agricultural management in the watersheds of the tributary rivers Cega, Eresma and Adaja of Duero’s River in Spain both in the current and future climate change scenarios. To define the HRUs, land use maps from remote-sensing processes were used, extracting the agricultural uses …

An Overview Of The Nevada Climate Change Portal, Sergiu Dascalu, Frederick C. Harris Jr., Michael Mcmahon Jr., Eric Fritzinger, Scotty Strachan, Richard Kelley

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Created with support from an NSF EPSCoR Research Infrastructure Improvement (RII) grant completed in 2013, the Nevada Climate Change Portal (NCCP) serves as a cyberinfrastructure hub that provides data and computing resources for scientists studying the effects of climate change in Nevada. In particular, the NCCP has been designed for data acquisition, storage, access, and processing in support of long-term assessment of climate variability in Nevada and its impact on the state’s ecological and hydrological systems. The NCCP also serves as a central repository of climate-related information for other stakeholders, including educators, students, and the public. In this paper we …

Coupled Simulation Of Human-Driven And Natural Land Cover Change In The Front Range Corridor, Co, Zhihua Liu, Michael C. Wimberly, Aashis Lamsal, Terry L. Sohl, Todd J. Hawbaker

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Colorado Front Range Corridor is a mixture of urban, agricultural, grassland, and diverse forest types, making it an ideal natural laboratory to investigate feedbacks and interactions of coupled human and natural systems. We explored future scenarios of human-driven land use change and natural vegetation dynamics using the CHANGE model, which integrates a demand-allocation land use change module, a succession module for natural vegetation dynamics, and a spatially explicit fire initiation and spread module. We used the model to project landscape change over an approximately 48000 km² study area from 2005 through 2050 under A2 and B1 emission scenarios. …

An Integrative Modeling Framework To Evaluate Wheat Production Systems: Fusarium Head Blight, Willingthon Pavan, José Maurício Cunha Fernandes, Alexandre Lazzaretti, Josué Toebe, Jorge Luis Bavaresco, Alex C. Ruane, Rodrigo Yoiti Tsukahara

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper describes a practical, integrated, web-based and user friendly analysis tool for crop model users that provides quality control of input data, tracks user selections in model parameterization, and enables visual analysis of model outcomes using a single graphical user interface. This allows the user to undertake numerous steps in crop modeling and analysis in a seamless and integrated environment. The analysis and visualization components of the system were enabled utilizing R (pl/r) and the robustness of the underlying data structures and coupling point between crop and disease models were achieved through use of PostgreSQL database management system. The …

Preserving Assets In At-Risk Municipalities: Financial Strategies For Climate Change Adaptation, New England Environmental Finance Center

Climate Change

A large share of America's population, businesses and economic activity now occurs in coastal areas. At the same time, during this century many coastal communities are likely to be severely impacted by sea level rise and increased storm surge and tidal flooding.

“What to do” about this vulnerability is the subject of this brief. It is intended to help municipalities identify courses of action and steps they might take toward increasing their resilience, especially regarding financial resources that will need to be allocated toward the various strategies identified.