Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons^™

Climate Change And Eutrophication: A Short Review, Mohammad Nazari-Sharabian, Sajjad Ahmad, Moses Karakouzian

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Water resources are vital not only for human beings but essentially all ecosystems. Human health is at risk if clean drinking water becomes contaminated. Water is also essential for agriculture, manufacturing, energy production and other diverse uses. Therefore, a changing climate and its potential effects put more pressure on water resources. Climate change may cause increased water demand as a result of rising temperatures and evaporation while decreasing water availability. On the other hand, extreme events as a result of climate change can increase surface runoff and flooding, deteriorating water quality as well. One effect is water eutrophication, which occurs …

Stream Temperature Monitoring And Modeling To Inform Restoration: A Study Of Thermal Variability In The Western Us, Jessica R. Wood

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Water temperature is an important variable for aquatic ecosystems. Salmonid population numbers and distribution are heavily influenced by stream temperature, and there is growing concern about the health of salmonid populations with anticipated climate change. Managers are looking to efficiently evaluate options to maintain stream temperatures needed by salmonids. This study evaluated and compared stream temperature restoration alternatives in two streams with warm temperatures using stream temperature monitoring and modeling.

The first study identified pockets of cold water that are important to native fish species in Nevada’s Walker River. Comparison of monitoring results with existing basin-scale model outputs identified two …

Climate, Not Conflict, Explains Extreme Middle East Dust Storm, Anthony J. Parolari, Dan Li, Elie Bou-Zeid, Gabriel Katul, Shmuel Assouline

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (September 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending ‘Dust Bowl.’ Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation cover …

Increasing Atmospheric Humidity And Co2 Concentration Alleviate Forest Mortality Risk, Yanlan Liu, Anthony J. Parolari, Mukesh Kumar, Chang-Wei Huang, Gabriel Katul, Amilcare Porporato

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO₂ concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal …

How Governmental Greenhouse Gas Science Has Been Weathered Through Time And Why It Matters, Christopher Apple

STAR Program Research Presentations

Global consumption of materials and energy is accelerating. The rate of plant and animal species extinction is accelerating. On a finite Earth with a growing population, current consumption cannot continue sustainably. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) tell us an important part of this story. The Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, managed by scientists at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, is the largest greenhouse gas analysis network in the world. It has been shaped by scientific questions, stagnant funding despite rises in research costs, and the task of understanding how the Earth system will respond to a changing climate. The Network began by …

Investigating Physical Processes Associated With Chesapeake Bay And Changjiang Estuary, Arash Niroomandi

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Coastal and estuaries are landforms that not only have great impacts on large marine ecosystem, but also play a significant role in moderating or aggravating natural hazards and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. This dissertation explores some of the concerns associated with coasts and coastal systems. In the second chapter, a thirty seven year wave hindcast (1979-2015) in Chesapeake Bay using NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wind is presented. The long-term significant wave heights are generated by the third-generation nearshore wave model SWAN, which is validated using the wave height measurements at buoy stations …

Influence Of Internal Variability On Population Exposure To Hydroclimatic Changes, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel Viviroli, Mesfin Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Radley M. Horton, Jason E. Smerdon, Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation …

Danger Below: Socal’S Dams Face Same Risks As Oroville, Char Miller, Frank Connor Lyles '17

Pomona Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided.

Detection Of Trends In The 7-Day Sustained Low-Flow Time Series Of Irish Rivers, Ahmed Nasr, Michael Bruen

Articles

A combination of statistical hypothesis testing methods (Mann-Whitney, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho) and visual exploratory analysis were used to investigate trends in Irish 7-day sustained low-flow (7SLF) series possibly driven by changes in summer rainfall patterns. River flow data from 33 gauging stations covering most major Irish rivers were analysed, after excluding catchments where low flows are influenced by significant human interventions. A statistically significant increasing trend in the 7SLF series was identified by all three tests at eight gauging stations; in contrast, a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified by all three tests at four stations. The stations with …

Data-Driven Spatial Modeling For Quantifying Networkwide Resilience In The Aftermath Of Hurricanes Irene And Sandy, Yuan Zhu, Kun Xie, Kaan Ozbay, Fan Zuo, Hong Yang

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

In recent years, the New York City metropolitan area was hit by two major hurricanes, Irene and Sandy. These extreme weather events disrupted and devastated the transportation infrastructure, including road and subway networks. As an extension of the authors' recent research on this topic, this study explored the spatial patterns of infrastructure resilience in New York City with the use of taxi and subway ridership data. Neighborhood tabulation areas were used as the units of analysis. The recovery curve of each neighborhood tabulation area was modeled with the logistic function to quantify the resilience of road and subway systems. Moran's …

Water–Soil–Vegetation Dynamic Interactions In Changing Climate, Xixi Wang, Xuefeng Chu, Tingxi Liu, Xiangju Cheng, Rich Whittecar

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Previous studies of land degradation, topsoil erosion, and hydrologic alteration typically focus on these subjects individually, missing important interrelationships among these important aspects of the Earth's system. However, an understanding of water–soil–vegetation dynamic interactions is needed to develop practical and effective solutions to sustain the globe's eco-environment and grassland agriculture, which depends on grasses, legumes, and other fodder or soil-building crops. This special issue is intended to be a platform for a discussion of the relevant scientific findings based on experimental and/or modeling studies. Its 12 peer-reviewed articles present data, novel analysis/modeling approaches, and convincing results of water–soil–vegetation interactions under …

Effects Of Sea Level Rise On Hydrology: Case Study In A Typical Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Xixi Wang, Rui Li, Homa Jalaeian Taghadomi, Shohreh Pedram, Xiao Zhao

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Sea level rise (SLR) can negatively affect the hydrology of coastal watersheds. However, the relevant information is incomplete and insufficient in existing literature. The objective of this study is to present a modeling approach to predict long-term effects of SLR on changes of flood peak, flood stage, and groundwater table with an assumption that the historical climate would reoccur in the future. The study was conducted for a typical coastal watershed in southeast USA. The results indicate that sea level had been rising at a rate of 4.21 mm yr⁻¹ from 1948 to 1982 but at a faster rate …

Assessment Of Changes In Riverine Nitrate In The Sesan, Srepok And Sekong Tributaries Of The Lower Mekong River Basin, Chanta Oeurng, Thomas A. Cochrane, Mauricio E. Arias, Bikesh Shrestha, Thanapon Piman

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Changes in nitrates are of particular concern in tropical regions undergoing rapid development, as these changes may affect local and downstream riverine ecosystems. This study assessed the spatial and temporal differences in nitrate loads within the Sesan, Srepok, and Sekong (3S) Rivers, the largest tributaries of the Mekong River. Simulation results from a flow and nitrate calibrated SWAT model show large differences in year-to-year nitrate loads, a strong seasonality, and clear variability patterns in monthly nitrate loads in the 3S outlet during the wet season. The annual total nitrate loading from the 3S Rivers account for approximately 30% of the …

Climate Change And The Delta, San Francisco Estuary And Watershed Science, Michael D. Dettinger, Jamie Anderson, Michael L. Anderson, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes …

Predictions Of Ponderosa Pine Resiliency To Climate Change In The Cebolla Canyon Watershed, New Mexico, Breana N. Chavez

Water Resources Professional Project Reports

This project was designed to understand the potential impacts of climate change on soil moisture and the resiliency of ponderosa pine in the forested region of the Cebolla Canyon watershed (Cebolla), located in eastern New Mexico. Much of the watershed is administered as public domain land by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM). This project aims to help BLM managers understand how climate change is projected to impact ponderosa pine seedling establishment and mature ponderosa pine productivity in Cebolla.

Current and potential future soil moisture regimes in Cebolla were simulated on three hills using HYDRUS-1D. The soil moisture regimes …

Reconciling Information From Climate-Economic Model Ensembles, A. Shchiptsova, D. Kovalevsky, E. Rovenskaya

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To date, no model building process can guarantee full representation of the complex climate-economic processes and narrow down the uncertainty associated with future climate projections. Multiple highly detailed models are developed by individual research groups to capture various known aspects of the climate processes. Normally, these models represent only a part of the climate-society system due to its complexity. On the other hand, a number of the simplified integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been put forward in the attempt to introduce the full causal loop between accumulated emissions, economy and climate, and study associated uncertainty. We present a simplified system …

Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments, Antoine Colmet Daage, Sophie Ricci, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Eric Servat, Cécile Llovel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features (karst, soil moisture, land use).The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. A number of historical flood events, previously …

Informing Adaptive Strategies For The Colorado Basin, David Groves, Robert Lempert, Jordan Fischbach, Evan Bloom

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Colorado River is the single most important source of water in the southwestern United States, providing water and power for nearly 40 million people and water to irrigate more than five million acres of farmland across seven states and for 22 Native American tribes. A vast physical and institutional infrastructure exists to provide water, as well as hydropower, recreational opportunities, environmental services, and other benefits to all these users. However, increasing demand, a decade of drought, and expectations of a significantly changing future climate have put the system under significant and deeply uncertain stress. This paper employs and extends …

Water Resource Management With The Management Software Manuela, Monika Von Haaren

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The impact of climate change with increasing droughts will lead to an increase of water consumption in agriculture. Even in Germany, agricultural land is already irrigated intensively to secure harvests at a higher level. The demand for additional irrigation will lead to conflicts between agriculture, water management and nature conservation. This paper shows a new way for the evaluation of water use in agricultural farming. With the developed method stakeholder can assess the water consumption for irrigation in agriculture, which is transferable, regionally applicable and comparable. The water-module is available as a new plug-in in the management software MANUELA and …

Modelling Adaptive Behaviour In Spatial Agent-­Based Models: Coastal Cities And Climate Change, Tatiana Filatova, Erik Horstman, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher, Ju-­Sung Lee, Johan De Waard

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A major part of world population lives in coastal and delta areas threatened by adverse consequences of climate change (increasing probabilities or severity of floods and hurricanes). It might lead to a forced displacement of up to 187 million people in coastal zones. Still, exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas rapidly escalate due to the clustering of population and growth of property values in flood-­prone areas. Land markets driven by individual location preferences are crucial in the formation of spatial patterns of activities and the economic value they receive. Under the conditions of uncertainty where probabilistic disasters and rich amenities …

Explicit Cost Accounting For Adaptation, Mitigation And Ecosystem Service Provision In Agriculture, Franz Sinabell, Karin Heinschink, Christoph Tribl

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Farmers, policy makers and scientists are well aware of this problem: obtaining sound cost information for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture or ecosystem service provision by agriculture is burdensome. In most cases, data sets are developed for a specific region with a given set of management variants for a baseline period. Adapting such information to another region or adjusting costs to expected future price scenarios requires additional efforts and frequently done an ad-hoc and case by case. A new tool is presented that can be used to identify and analyze the entangled effects of future climate and …

Autoflow© - A Novel Application For Water Resource Management And Climate Change Response Using Smart Technology, Khoi Anh Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Rodney Anthony Stewart, Hong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Several analysis platforms have been developed worldwide to help effectively control and response to these impacts from different angles, including water resources management, energy production and consumption management, air pollution control, or other natural resources management. To contribute to this goal, Griffith University in Australia has developed Autoflow^©, a smart application for water demand analysis and carbon emission monitoring and prediction. Various advanced mathematical models have been …

Hydrological Water Resources Assessment Of Cega-Eresma-Adaja Watershed System Using Swat Model, David A. Rivas, Angel De Miguel, Bárbara Willarts

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the hydrological assessment of water bodies, modeling is a key fact in water management strategies of watersheds and serves as a tool for decision making considering environmental issues as the core of sustainable development in the region. In this direction, SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess the water availability related with agricultural management in the watersheds of the tributary rivers Cega, Eresma and Adaja of Duero’s River in Spain both in the current and future climate change scenarios. To define the HRUs, land use maps from remote-sensing processes were used, extracting the agricultural uses …

Lessons From Rebuild By Design, Tara Eisenberg

May 6, 2016: Planning for Resilience in Hampton Roads

No abstract provided.

Simulation Of Conservation Practice Effects On Water Quality Under Current And Future Climate Scenarios, Carlington W. Wallace

Open Access Dissertations

Analysis of the effects of implementing different conservation practices, as well as increased levels of conservation practices under existing and projected future climate, will determine if current conservation practice recommendations will be sufficient to maintain soil and water resources. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study four watersheds of different sizes (CCW = 680 km2, F34 = 183 km2, AXL = 42 km 2 and ALG = 20 km2) located in Northeastern Indiana. The overarching goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of various agricultural practices on runoff and agricultural chemical losses under current …

Physically Based Modeling Of The Impacts Of Climate Change On Streamflow Regime, Nazmus Shams Sazib

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Understanding the implications of climate change on streamflow regime is complex as changes in climate vary over space and time. However, a better understanding of the impact of climate change is required for identifying how stream ecosystems vulnerable to these changes, and ultimately to guide the development of robust strategies for reducing risk in the face of changing climatic conditions. Here I used physically based hydrologic modeling to improve understanding of how climate change may impact streamflow regimes and advance some of the cyberinfrastructure and GIS methodologies that support physically based hydrologic modeling by: (1) using a physically based model …

Planning For Climate Change: The Need For Mechanistic Systems-Based Approaches To Study Climate Change Impacts On Diarrheal Diseases, Jonathan E. Mellor, Karen Levy, Julie Zimmerman, Mark Elliott, Jamie Bartram, Elizabeth Carlton, Thomas Clasen, Rebecca Dilingham, Joseph Eisenberg, Richard Guerrant, Daniele Lantagne, James Mihelcic, Kara Nelson

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying …

Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova

Publications and Research

Ensembles of general circulation model (GCM) integrations yield predictions for meteorological conditions in future months. Such predictions have implicit uncertainty resulting from model structure, parameter uncertainty, and fundamental randomness in the physical system. In this work, we build probabilistic models for long-term forecasts that include the GCM ensemble values as inputs but incorporate statistical correction of GCM biases and different treatments of uncertainty. Specifically, we present, and evaluate against observations, several versions of a probabilistic forecast for gridded air temperature 1 month ahead based on ensemble members of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 …

Can The Gulf Stream Induce Coherent Short-Term Fluctuations In Sea Level Along The Us East Coast?: A Modeling Study, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Much attention has been given in recent years to observations and models that show that variations in the transport of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and in the Gulf Stream (GS) can contribute to interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal variations in coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast. However, less is known about the impact of short-term (time scales of days to weeks) fluctuations in the GS and their impact on CSL anomalies. Some observations suggest that these anomalies can cause unpredictable minor tidal flooding in low-lying areas when the GS suddenly weakens. Can these short-term CSL variations …

Calpoly 2015 Transportation Survey Report, William Riggs

City and Regional Planning Studios and Projects

In the spring of 2015, City & Regional Planning faculty conducted a campus-wide transportation survey as part of work on the campus Climate Action Plan. The survey represented spring 2014 commutes and was issued to a sample of full and part-time CalPoly faculty, staff, students and auxiliaries with assistance from Facilities Services and the Vice President for Administration and Finance.

The total number of responses was 3,961, roughly 17% of the entire campus population of roughly 23,000. Unsurprisingly, the majority of respondents were students, totaling 68.6%, while the rest were made up of faculty, staff, and visitors. Results are significant …