Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons^™

A Web-Based Flood Informat Ion System, Jordan Black, Subhankar Karmakar, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

The web has become a major source of information for many water resources management tasks. With the growing popularity of the Internet, it provides a convenient, accessible way to provide the public with flood-related information. The present study focuses on web dissemination of information on flood risk and vulnerability to different types of users; general public, decision makers, and professionals. By gearing the display and representation of risk to each user, the information can be better understood and facilitate the flood management process. A user-friendly web-based flood information system is developed to provide flood risk, different components of flood vulnerability, …

Physical, Economical, Infrastructural And Social Flood Risk -- Vulnerability Analyses In Gis, Angela Peck, Subhankar Karmakar, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

An exhaustive knowledge of flood risk, vulnerability and exposure in different spatial locations is essential for developing an effective flood mitigation strategy for a watershed. In the present study, a flood risk-vulnerability analysis is performed. All four components of flood vulnerability: (a) physical; (b) economic; (c) infrastructure and (d) social, are evaluated individually using a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The proposed methodology estimates the impact on infrastructure vulnerability due to inundation of critical facilities, emergency service stations, and road bridges. The components of vulnerability are combined to determine the overall vulnerability. The patterns of land use and soil type …

Flood Frequency Analysis Using Copula With Mixed Marginal Distributions, Subhankar Karmakar, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

In flood frequency analysis, a flood event is mainly characterized by peak flow, volume and duration. These three variables or characteristics of flood are random in nature and mutually correlated. In this article, a methodology is developed to derive bivariate joint distributions of the flood characteristics using the concept of copula considering a set of parametric and nonparametric marginal distributions for peak flow, volume and duration to mathematically model the correlated nature among them. A set of parametric distribution functions, and nonparametric methods based on kernel density estimation and orthonormal series are used to determine the marginal distribution functions for …

Dynamic Feedback Coupling Of Continuous Hydrologic And Socio-Economic Model Components Of The Upper Thames River Basin, Predrag Prodanovic, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

The main contribution of this work consists of formulating a novel simulation framework used in analysis of climate change impact assessment. The model developed consists of a continuous hydrologic component coupled (via feedback) to a socioeconomic component developed using system dynamics. The hydrologic component of the model responds to changes in socio-economic conditions (such as changing economic, demographic and land use patterns), while socio-economic conditions are continually influenced by hydrologic quantities (such as available ground water recharge, flow and precipitation). As the two components are connected via feedback, each dynamically influences, and is influenced by, the other thereby mimicking such …

Inverse Flood Risk Modelling Of The Upper Thames River Basin, Predrag Prodanovic, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

This report aims to present an alternate approach to climate change impact mod- elling of water resources. The focus of the project is on the analysis of existing wa- ter resources management guidelines specifically targeting critical hydrologic events (extreme floods in this case). The critical hydrologic events are converted to their corresponding meteorologic conditions via use of an event based hydrologic model. The local climatic signal is generated by use of a non-parametric weather generator linked to outputs from a global climate model for three climate scenarios, and their corresponding frequency curves generated. Then, a critical hydrologic event of inter- …

Inverse Drought Risk Modelling Of The Upper Thames River Basin, Predrag Prodanovic, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

This report aims to present an alternate approach to climate change impact mod- elling of water resources. The focus of the project is on the analysis of existing water resources management guidelines specifically targeting critical hydrologic events (ex- treme droughts in this case). The critical hydrologic events are converted to their corresponding meteorologic conditions via use of an appropriate hydrologic model (continuous based hydrologic model for drought analysis). The local climatic signal is generated by use of a non-parametric weather generator linked to outputs from a global circulation model for three climate scenarios, and their corresponding fre- quency curves generated. …

A Decision Support System For Integrated Risk Management, Ibrahim El-Baroudy, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

This report provides a detailed description of the Risk Assessment Support System (RASS) for use in municipal water supply. The report explores the utility of the developed support system for evaluating the performance of a complex water supply system. A regional water supply system for the city of London is used as the case study. The theoretical foundations and computational requirements for the implementation of the RASS are provided in the report.

Application Of The Fuzzy Performance Indices To The City Of London Water Supply System, Ibrahim El-Baroudy, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

This study explores the utility of fuzzy performance indices: (i) combined reliabilityvulnerability index, (ii) robustness index, and (iii) resiliency index, for evaluating the performance of a complex water supply system. Regional water supply system for the City of London is used as the case study. The two main components being investigated in this case study are; (i) the Lake Huron Primary Water Supply System (LHPWSS), and (ii) the Elgin Area Primary Water Supply system (EAPWSS).

Generation Of Synthetic Design Storms For The Upper Thames River Basin, Predrag Prodanovic, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

The purpose of this report is to summarize methods available in the literature that synthetically generate rainfall hyetographs (plots of rainfall intensity vs. time). The outputs of selected methods are to be used as inputs to a hydrological model of the Upper Thames River basin, to be used for determination of hydrologic risks and extremes.

Calibration, Verification And Sensitivity Analysis Of The Hec-Hms Hydrologic Model, Juraj Cunderlik, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

The main objective of this report is to describe the calibration, verification, and sensitivity analysis of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) on the data from the Upper Thames River basin (UTRb) study area. The HEC-HMS model was chosen to be the most appropriate hydrologic modeling tool for achieving the goals set in the Canadian Foundation for Climatic and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) funded project “Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions” (“project” hereafter), (Cunderlik and Simonovic, 2003). The calibration, verification and sensitivity analysis of the HMS model …

Selection Of Calibration And Verification Data For The Hec-Hms Hydrologic Model, Juraj Cunderlik, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

The main purpose of this report is to summarize the strategy applied for selecting the hydro-climatic data, which will be used for the calibration and verification of the US-ACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The HEC-HMS model was chosen to be the most appropriate hydrologic modeling tool for achieving the goals set in the Canadian Foundation for Climatic and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) funded project “Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions” (“project” hereafter), (Cunderlik, 2003).

Hydrologic Model Selection For The Cfcas Project: Assessment Of Water Resources Risk And Vulnerability To Changing Climatic Conditions, Juraj Cunderlik

Water Resources Research Report

The main purpose of this report is to present an up-to-date summary and comparison of existing hydrologic models that are potentially suitable for achieving the goals set in the Canadian Foundation for Climatic and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) funded project “Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions” (“project” hereafter). The report is intended to provide the information necessary for choosing the “right” model; a model which would be the most appropriate hydrologic modeling tool for the project in terms of various criteria. A two-level selection approach is used to objectively determine the most suitable model. At the …

New Fuzzy Performance Indices For Reliability Analysis Of Water Supply Systems, Ibrahim El-Baroudy, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

Large and complex engineering systems are subject to wide range of possible future loads and conditions. Uncertainty associated with the quantification of these potential conditions is imposing a great challenge to systems‘ design, planning and management. Therefore, the assurance of satisfactory and reliable system performance cannot be simply achieved.

Water supply systems, as typical example of these engineering systems, include collections of different types of facilities. These facilities are connected in complicated networks that extend over and serve broad geographical regions. As a result, water supply systems are at risk of temporary disruption in service due to natural hazards or …

Conflict Resolution Support System: A Software For The Resolution Of Conflicts In Water Resource Management, K. D. W. Nandalal, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Sharing a limited water resource by several stakeholders can create conflicts among them when their requirements exceed availability. In such situations, water allocation based on a traditional optimization or simulation modeling may not resolve the dispute among them due to the lack of their participation in …

State-Of-The-Art Report On Systems Analysis Methods For Resolution Of Conflicts In Water Resources Management, K. D. W. Nandalal, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Two or more countries share the watersheds of 261 major rivers and nearly half of the land area of the wo rld is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war. Water …

A General Overview Of Multi-Objective Multiple-Participant Decision Making For Flood Management, Taslima Akter, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

Decision-making problems in water resources are often associated with multiple objectives and multiple stakeholders. To enable more effective and acceptable decision outcome, it is required that more participation is ensured in the decision making process. This is particularly relevant for flood management problems where the number of stakeholders could be very large. Although application of multi-objective decision-making tools in water resources is very wide, application with the consideration of multiple stakeholders is much more limited. The solution methodologies adapted for multi-objective multi-participant decision problems are generally based on aggregation of decisions obtained for individual decision makers. This approach seems somewhat …

A Spatial Fuzzy Compromise Approach For Flood Disaster Management, Nirupama, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

Natural disasters affect regions with different intensity and produce damages that vary in space. Topographical features of the region; location of properties that may be exposed to the peril; level of exposure; impact of different mitigation measures; are all variables with considerable spatial variability. A new method for evaluation of disaster impacts has been presented in this report that takes into consideration spatial variability of variables involved and associated uncertainty. Flood management has been used to illustrate the utility of proposed approach.

Floodplain management is a spatial problem. Representation of flood damage mitigation alternatives and objectives in space provides a …

Role Of Remote Sensing In Disaster Management, Nirupama, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

The objective of this report is to review the existing satellites monitoring Earth’s resources and natural disasters. Each satellite has different repeat pass frequency and spatial resolution (unless it belongs to the same series of satellites for the purpose of continuation of data flow with same specifications). Similarly, different satellites have different types of sensors on-board, such as, panchromatic, multispectral, infrared and thermal. All these sensors have applications in disaster mitigation, though depending on the electromagnetic characteristics of the objects on Earth and the nature of disaster itself. With a review of the satellites in orbit and their sensors the …

Assessment Of The Impact Of Climate Variability And Change On The Reliability, Resiliency And Vulnerability Of Complex Flood Protection Systems, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Water Resources Research Report

An original modeling framework (DYHAM) for assessment of climate variation and change impacts on the performance of complex flood protection system has been developed and tested using the Red River basin (Manitoba) as a case study. Modeling framework allows for evaluation of different climate change scenarios generated by the global climate models. Temperature and precipitation are used as the main factors affecting flood flow generation. System dynamics modeling approach proved to be of great value in the development of system performance assessment model.

The most important impact of climate variability and change on hydrologic processes is reflected in the change …

Fuzzy Set Ranking Methods And Multiple Expert Decision Making, Predrag Prodanovic

Water Resources Research Report

The present report further investigates the multi-criteria decision making tool named Fuzzy Compromise Programming. Comparison of different fuzzy set ranking methods (required for processing fuzzy information) is performed. A complete sensitivity analysis concerning decision maker’s risk preferences was carried out for three water resources systems, and compromise solutions identified. Then, a weights sensitivity analysis was performed on one of the three systems to see whether the rankings would change in response to changing weights. It was found that this particular system was robust to the changes in weights.

An inquiry was made into the possibility of modifying Fuzzy Compromise Programming …