Aviation Commons^™

Bitseat: Reimagining The Financing For Airliners Using Nonfungible Tokens (Blockchain Technology), Edwin S. Ongola

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

This essay describes how blockchain technology, particularly nonfungible tokens, can be used to raise funding for airliners. The essay begins with a brief overview on the costs, categories, and acquisition methods of airliners. After that, the essay introduces concepts on blockchain technology, tokens, and smart contracts. The essay then touches on how nonfungible tokens can be used to facilitate fractional ownership of airliners. From there, the essay discusses Bitseat, a conceptual nonfungible token for fractional ownership of airliners, covering its overall design, appeal, marketplace alternatives, and challenges. Finally, in the discussion, the essay summarizes the overall concept and outlines its …

Learning Casual Structures From Aviation Accident Narratives Using Natural Language Processing And Graph-Based Knowledge Representation, Stephanie Ramsey, Katherine Hoffsetz, Madeline Gorman, Logan Lambeth

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Understanding the complex causal relationships underlying aviation accidents is critical for improving safety and preventing future incidents. However, much of this information exists in unstructured narrative reports, making large-scale analysis difficult. This project aims to automatically extract and model causal chains from National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident narratives using a combination of traditional natural language processing (NLP) techniques, transformer-based architectures, and graph-based knowledge representation. Traditional NLP methods, including named entity recognition, dependency parsing, and rule-based pattern matching, will be used to identify structured cause–effect relationships. These approaches will be compared with transformer-based models, including a lightweight encoder for classification …

Sequential Causal Architecture For Multimodal Aviation Accident Prediction, Kaitlyn Cavanaugh, Isaac Morrison

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Aviation accidents are rarely the result of a single failure but rather from a complex causal chain of latent failures. While traditional data mining models often predict incident occurrence, they frequently overlook the sequential mechanics defined by known accident causation theoretical frameworks like the Swiss Cheese Model and the FAA's HFACS. This project addresses the need for interpretable, reliable, multi-stage forecasting by proposing a Sequential Causal Architecture that transforms theoretical causation models into a structured Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for multimodal accident causation chain prediction. Data from the NTSB and DOT is used and connected together in a meaningful way …

Modeling Aircraft Collision Risk Using Machine Learning And Traffic Density Data Ac, Jadia Renee Ewing, Alexander Van Baelan, Conrad Prisby, Rafal P. Smietana

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Air traffic congestion is an increasingly important factor in aviation safety as global flight activity continues to grow. This project investigates whether higher traffic density is associated with an increased risk of aviation incidents and identifies key contributing factors. Using publicly available flight (ADS-B) and incident (NTSB) data, we apply several machine learning models to analyze traffic patterns and predict risk. We begin with logistic regression to evaluate the relationship between density and incident probability, followed by decision trees to extract interpretable rules describing high-risk conditions. K-nearest neighbors (KNN) is used to examine similarity in traffic patterns among incident flights, …

The Impact Of Environmental Contributing Factors In Spatial Disorientation And Non-Spatial Disorientation Related General Aviation Accidents, Victoria Cornaro, Molly Mersinger

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The Impact of Environmental Contributing Factors in Spatial Disorientation and Non-Spatial Disorientation Related General Aviation Accidents   Spatial disorientation (SD) is an inherent risk of flying and with a high risk of resulting in a fatal accident (Gibbs et al, 2011). SD related accidents occur when a pilot’s perception of the aircraft altitude, position, or relative motion conflict with reality (Benson, 1999). SD accidents are significantly more likely to result in a fatality than non-SD cases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of different contributing factors on SD and non-SD general aviation accidents. We used the NTSB …

Classification Of Sequential Factors In Aviation Accident Cause Prediction, Sophia Nasca, Addyson Wolfe

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Uncovering the root causes of aviation accidents is a critical component of improving aviation safety. Traditional approaches are largely reactive, relying on post-incident analysis rather than proactively identifying risk factors. This project addresses the need for proactive safety by using a multi-source dataset that integrates aviation accident records, weather conditions, and maintenance data extracted from investigative reports. The objective of this work is to move beyond predicting broad probable causes and instead model the sequence of contributing factors that lead to aviation incidents. Using the Swiss Cheese Model, the study will capture layered failures across operational, environmental, and maintenance domains. …

Small Uas Detection: Threat Intelligence & Risk Management Project, Tyler Johnson

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION / FEDERAL AIR MARSHAL SUAS DETECTION: THREAT INTELLIGENCE & RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT addresses the emerging safety and security challenges posed by the rapid growth of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) in complex airspace environments. This study analyzed 92 days of sensor-captured Remote Identification (RID) data collected near Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) to assess operational behaviors, aviation risk, and ground risk associated with drone activity. The primary objective of this research is to identify patterns of unauthorized or hazardous sUAS operations to enhance situational awareness and inform actionable risk-mitigation strategies. The analysis identified 335 flights from …

Ai-Driven Scheduling Algorithms For Private Aviation, Tayan Benson, Jessica Buskey, Gabriel Camacho, Caitlyn A. Gabrinowitz

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Private aviation scheduling is complex and dynamic, requiring frequent aircraft repositioning based on demand and operational constraints, unlike fixed commercial airline schedules. As fleets grow beyond 300 aircraft, traditional deterministic methods become too slow, leading to the use of approaches such as genetic algorithms, but neural network-based methods have not seen in-depth exploration. This project models aircraft scheduling as a network, where airports and flights form a graph. It explores advanced AI methods, including graph neural networks and spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs), to capture both network structure and time constraints. The goal is to generate efficient daily schedules from …

Predicting Passenger Demand On National Flights Departing From Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (Atl) In 2024, Brooklyn Gossett, Ana Yu Wen

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The aviation industry relies heavily on accurate demand forecasting to guide critical decisions regarding route planning, capacity management, and pricing strategy. Misjudging passenger demand can result in significant revenue loss and operational inefficiency, making it essential for airlines and analysts to identify the key drivers of flight patronage. This study investigates the factors that most significantly predict the number of passengers on domestic flights departing from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) during the 2024 calendar year. Using passenger and route data sourced from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), a multiple regression analysis …

An Evaluation Of Machine Learning Models' Efficacy In Determining Uav Spoofing Attacks, Nicolas Machado, Jaxon Selzer

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

An Evaluation of Machine Learning Models' Efficacy in Determining UAV Spoofing Attacks - The rapid integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) into urban airspace has introduced significant cybersecurity concerns, particularly due to vulnerabilities in Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B), which lacks authentication and encryption. This project addresses the problem of detecting spoofing and data manipulation attacks that can compromise UAV safety and mission reliability. The objective of this work is to evaluate the effectiveness of machine learning–based anomaly detection, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks, as protocol-agnostic solutions for identifying anomalous UAV behavior. To achieve this, …

A System Safety Approach To Assuring Artificial Intelligence Enabled Functions In Civil Aviation, Evan Bear, Quinn Galen

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques are increasingly proposed for use in safety-critical civil aviation functions including perception decision support and pilot assistance. Existing aviation safety and certification standards such as ARP4754A and DO-178C were developed under assumptions of determinism explicit requirements and complete behavioral specification which do not directly apply to learning-enabled systems. This mismatch has created uncertainty regarding how artificial intelligence enabled avionics can be safely assured and certified. This paper presents a system safety approach for assuring artificial intelligence enabled functions within existing aviation certification frameworks. In this approach safety assurance is based on explicitly identifying the …

Real-Time Fused Sensor System For Early Onboard Detection Of Weather Phenomena, Sanjana Singh

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Weather-related hazards continue to be a major cause of operational interruptions and safety issues in the aviation sector. Atmospheric phenomena, including turbulence, microbursts, convective storms, and rapidly changing boundary-layer conditions, can arise quickly and often occur on spatial scales that are not adequately addressed by regional forecasting systems. These phenomena particularly endanger aircraft flying at low altitudes, such as general aviation planes, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and those during takeoff and landing Although meteorological forecasting systems and ground-based radar networks offer important regional insights, they may fail to detect localized atmospheric variations encountered along specific flight routes. Consequently, pilots and …

Meeting The Moment With Ai-Employer Informed Education, Brent Terwilliger, John Faraca

Publications

As artificial intelligence transforms aviation, aerospace, and autonomy-related sectors, higher education must adapt to meet evolving workforce demands. This session shares emerging findings from a nationwide study led by Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, focused on employer perceptions of AI adoption, responsible use, and workforce preparedness in domains including uncrewed systems, space systems, robotics, and advanced air mobility. Based on a structured survey and follow-up interviews, the presentation explores how organizations are using AI tools, from generative platforms to enterprise systems, and defining effective and inappropriate use in operational contexts. Participants will gain insight into critical concerns (e.g., data privacy, compliance, security, …

Clear-Air Turbulence Climatology And Trends, Liam Rodgers, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Clear‑air turbulence (CAT) is a major aviation hazard that occurs near airline cruising altitudes in both cloud and cloud‑free environments. Its lack of a distinct visual signature makes detection and avoidance difficult. CAT is associated with wind shear near jet streams, gravity waves, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and may be further enhanced by climate change. This study examines the climatology, spatial distribution, seasonal variability, and trends of CAT over the contiguous United States.

Pilot Reports (PIREPs) from 2001–2025 between 100 and 400 hPa are analyzed alongside jet stream, shear, and stability diagnostics derived from NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis data. Proxies such as inverse …

Contrasting Coastal Dune Environments In Chile, Aurora Christianson

Student Research Symposium (SRS)

Emerging coastalization and urbanization threats to the prehistoric Concón Dunes and Humedal de Mantagua coastal area of Chile is being investigated by researchers via uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS). Four UAS were utilized: Anzu Raptor T, DJI Mavic 3E, DJI Mavic 3M, and DJI Air 3 to collect various images of the coastal dunes. Multispectral and RGB cameras gather images by photogrammetry to create orthomosaics and monitor vegetation indexes in Pix4Dmapper. Thermal cameras provided images in rainbow, white hot infrared, and black hot infrared schemes to monitor wildlife and vegetation. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated to visualize overall …

Statistical Analysis Of Log Transformation Effectiveness In Air Traffic Movement Forecasting During Covid-19 In South Africa, John Lehlaka Masekoameng

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

This study evaluates the effectiveness of log transformation in enhancing multiple regression models used to forecast air traffic movements (ATMs) in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 60 monthly observations from October 2016 to September 2021, the analysis incorporates variables such as revenue, lockdown levels, COVID-19 metrics, exchange rates, gross domestic product, and population. Two models are compared: one using raw ATMs and another with log-transformed ATMs as the dependent variable.

While the untransformed model shows stronger explanatory power (R² = 0.904, adjusted R² = 0.891) compared to the log-transformed model (R² = 0.772, adjusted R² = 0.741), the …

Uncertainty Quantification, Propagation & Conjunction Assessment In Orbital Mechanics Using Generalized Polynomial Chaos Expansion & 2-Dimensional Conjunction Plane Analysis Techniques, Monalisa Karim

Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Theses

Uncertainties, that are inherent to dynamic models, can be associated with state initial conditions, force modelling errors, navigation and actuation errors. In system modelling stochastic differential equations are used to represent dynamic phenomena with uncertainties, for which the solutions are probability density functions of quantities of interest characterizing the realization of the stochastic processes. In Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) propagation, these solutions are represented as weighted sums of multivariate spectral polynomials that are functions of the input random variables. Generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPC) is an extension to the original homogenous PCE which projects the random solution onto a basis …

Network-Aware Airline-Specific Flight Delay Prediction Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models, Mary Dufie Afrane

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Flight delays pose persistent challenges to the efficiency and reliability of air transportation systems, affecting airlines, airports, regulators, and passengers alike. As traffic demand grows and operational environments become increasingly interconnected, accurately predicting both departure and arrival delays has become crucial for effective planning and mitigation. This study presents a network-aware, airline-specific framework for predicting flight delays in U.S. domestic air transportation systems using tree-based ensemble machine learning models. A large-scale dataset of 1.98 million flights, enriched with weather information, is used to develop predictive models for both departure and arrival delays. To capture the structural and operational complexity of …

Smart Pireps: Leveraging Technology To Simplify Pilot Weather Reporting In General Aviation, Emma Hellwege

Honors Projects

This honors project examines how emerging aviation technologies can support or automate components of Pilot Weather Reports (PIREPs) to improve reporting accuracy, reduce pilot workload, and increase participation within the general aviation (GA) community. PIREPs provide essential real-time weather observations—such as turbulence, icing, and visibility—that supplement automated systems and enhance situational awareness for pilots, air traffic control, and meteorologists. However, reports are vastly underutilized due to workload constraints, inconsistent training, voice-only submission methods, and technological disparities across the GA fleet.

Through a structured analysis of federal aviation documentation, sensor capabilities, human factors research, and recent advancements in automation, this study …

Preparing Tomorrow’S Professionals: Industry-Informed Ai Integration, Brent A. Terwilliger Ph.D, John Faraca

Publications

As AI reshapes operations across aviation and aerospace, organizations are investing in ways to preserve data integrity, safeguard proprietary knowledge, and uphold critical professional competencies. This presentation shares emerging findings from a study that surveys and interviews industry professionals about their use of AI tools, their concerns about misuse, and the importance of secure, enterprise-controlled “walled garden” environments. The work explores how employers define appropriate, effective, and innovative AI adoption, particularly in roles requiring high-stakes decision-making, compliance, and technical acumen.

By analyzing organizational expectations around AI-related knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs), this research offers practical guidance for academic programs seeking …

Student Perspectives On Ai-Enabled Tools For Adaptive Learning, John Faraca

Publications

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly influencing the delivery of higher education, especially in aviation technical disciplines. From AI-assisted gimbals and video production tools to generative AI platforms, these technologies are helping learners to engage with course material, accomplish objectives, and connect academic concepts with professional applications. By offering pathways for personalization, streamlining resource access, and supporting interactive instruction, AI tools expand opportunities for effective learning. This work builds on a current collaborative research project with a faculty researcher to explore the student perspective in the active review and application of these tools to highlight their potential to improve usability, address …

Impacts Of Climate Disruption On Mobility Aircraft Performance In The Pacaf Region, Hannah M. Dauterman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the projected impacts of climate disruption on the performance and fuel management of the C-17 Globemaster III, a critical mobility aircraft in the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) region. As rising global temperatures reduce air density, the performance of aircraft is compromised, resulting in increased fuel consumption, as well as the potential for extended runway requirements and diminished cargo capacity. Using climate projection data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this research analyzes future air temperature trends and their implications for C-17 fuel consumption. Results suggest that by 2049, the U.S. Air Force may incur an …

Designing The Protocol For An Experimental Flight Simulation Study Encouraging Fuel Efficient Behavior, Thomas S. Reardon

Theses and Dissertations

This study designed and tested an experimental instrument to examine how pilots respond to fuel efficiency feedback in a flight simulator. A standardized flight plan, script, and hardware setup were created using X-Plane 12 software and physical flight simulator hardware. The chosen sortie guided participants from Monterey Regional Airport to Moffett Federal Airfield using instrument flight rules (IFR). The flight script provided step-by-step guidance to ensure consistent behavior across participants. The simulator was mapped to match real cockpit controls and allowed for precise data collection including flight time, altitude, heading, and fuel use. The goal was to support a larger …

Designing An Experiment To Create And Evaluate Behavioral Changes In Air Force Pilots' Fuel Efficiency, Jackson Macias

Theses and Dissertations

Fuel represents over 70% of the logistical resupply demand within the Department of Defense, with the United States Air Force accounting for most of that consumption. While prior fuel efficiency efforts have primarily focused on technical upgrades, this research explores how behavioral interventions can influence pilot decision-making and operational energy outcomes. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a guiding framework, this study investigates the effects of targeted behavioral strategies on pilots’ attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, intentions, and actual fuel-efficient behaviors. A quasi-experimental design was applied through a controlled pilot study using simulator flights. Six participants were …

A Technical And Statistical Analysis Of Unleaded Aviation Fuel (Ul94) Adoption In A High- Volume Collegiate Aviation Environment, Nicholas D. Wilson, Ryan Guthridge, Brandon Wild, Jeremy Roesler, Daniel Kasowski, Nick Geinert, Aaron Terbest, Aaron Fettig, Robert Kraus

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

The University of North Dakota (UND) adopted unleaded aviation fuel (UL94) for approximately a four-month period in the summer and early fall of 2023. The UL94 fuel was used in all reciprocating engine fleets based at the university’s primary training airport, Grand Forks International Airport in North Dakota. During the operational implementation of UL94, the UND flew 46,600 flight hours, consuming 386,778 gallons of fuel across all fleets powered by Lycoming engines. After approximately two months of using UL94, operational reports and maintenance inspections began to indicate potential for exhaust valve seat recession (EVSR), although early indications were limited in …

Aircraft Bird Strike Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning And Analytic Hierarchy Process, Jason Anthony Powell

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

To address the limitations of Next Generation Radar-based bird strike forecasting, this study modeled 12 spatiotemporal weather features from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration alongside bird strike risk using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN), XGBoost regression tree, and Bayesian network algorithms. Five years of bird strike data from four geographically diverse airfields served as the target risk variable, categorized as low, moderate, or severe based on Department of the Air Force risk models. The ensemble model, which combines the LSTM-RNN and XGBoost regression algorithms, yielded the most accurate forecasts, achieving 80% to 93% accuracy across all airfields, …

Diversifying Cybersecurity: Evaluation Of An Internet Of Things (Iot)-Based Cybersecurity Training Course Designed To Bridge The Diversity Gap, Maureen Namukasa, Bhoomin B. Chauhan, Carlie Swords, Curtice Gough, Weronika Dymanus, Catherine Diresta, John Vitali, Vivek Sharma, T J. Oconnor, Meredith Carroll

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of an eight-module Cybersecurity course at increasing the learning outcomes of middle and high school students with little to no experience, including underrepresented minorities (URMs) in Cybersecurity. Twice we administered and evaluated the Cybersecurity course, which included hands-on IoT-based activities, utilizing collaborative learning, scaffolding, and representation-based learning strategies. Using a quasi-experimental, within-subjects, repeated measures design, each participant experienced a pretest, the course, and a post-test to evaluate the impact on learners’ self-efficacy, interest, and knowledge. The results revealed that (1) at pre-test, female (p = .001) and in one course administration minority …

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence In Education To Drive Cross-Sector Innovation, Brent Terwilliger, John Faraca

Publications

As artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes educational practices, particularly in technical fields such as uncrewed systems, robotics, and aviation/ aerospace, its integration raises promise and complexity. This exploratory study features an investigation of the impact AI tools adoption has on instruction, curriculum support, and workforce preparation, with a focus on online learning environments. Drawing from pilot survey data across aviation and aerospace education stakeholders and hands-on evaluation of AI video production platforms, findings reveal diverse applications, perceived benefits, and critical concerns, including ethical, pedagogical, and institutional challenges. Additionally, the analysis explored how AI-enabled education intersects with broader industry and government innovation …

Evaluating Weather Effects On Sortie Generation Using Discrete Event Simulation, Markus Case

Theses and Dissertations

United States Air Force (USAF) operations rely on sortie generation, a complex system involving aircraft maintenance, operational planning, munitions, security forces, and aircrew. Failures in any of these areas can jeopardize a mission, and extreme weather events such as lightning, high winds, and snow further complicate operations. This thesis examines the impact of extreme weather on sortie generation, focusing on developing a data-driven discrete-event simulation (DES) to predict generation timelines and identify high-risk areas. The model allows users to adjust key inputs, including the month, number of aircraft, processing times, and personnel/equipment availability. By simulating real-world conditions, the model helps …

Machine Learning With Flight Data Recorder Data For Flight Fuel Consumption Predictions, Adam C. Levandowski

Theses and Dissertations

This study applies advanced Machine Learning (ML) to Flight Data Recorder (FDR) data for fuel consumption predictions. It explores feature engineering, model selection, and Hyper-Parameter Optimization (HPO) across all flight phases. Baseline models like Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Multi- Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), and decision trees are compared to Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) layers, and XGBoost. Results analyze segmentation strategies, tailored features, and model performance. A counterfactual analysis compares ML models to operational fuel predictions, demonstrating their deployment potential. Findings establish a foundation for future ML-driven advancements in aviation fuel optimization.