Systems Engineering and Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Commons^™

Creating And Analyzing Space Vehicle Seit/Pm Factors, Jordan A. Bosco

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense relies on accurate cost estimation to inform budget decisions. Beyond being a critical component of the Defense Acquisition System, cost estimation is a legal requirement in the budgeting process. Cost analysts, therefore, have both a fiduciary and statutory responsibility to produce realistic estimates. Among the many elements of a space system cost estimate is Space Vehicle Systems Engineering, Integration & Test, and Program Management (SEIT/PM). While existing factors aid in estimating SEIT/PM, Space Systems Command is interested in research in alternatives to the current methods and crosschecks for those methods. This study develops a set of …

Production Box Cost Estimating Relationships For Dod Avionics, Carla J. Cisneros, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Robert D. Fass, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

The authors use historical information obtained from the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise to estimate recurring production unit cost for DoD avionics via cost estimating relationships (CERs). The specific modeled responses include mean unit cost, median unit cost, and the 100th production unit cost (T100) utilizing learning curve theory. For T100, the authors adopt both a multiplicative and an additive error for CER comparison. Recommended CERs consist of the mean unit cost and the T100 utilizing a multiplicative error. Moreover, results reveal that weight has a significant effect on cost as well as a potential underaccounting of real price change or …

A Panel Data Regression Model For Defense Merger And Acquisition Activity, Corey D. Mack, Clay Koschnick, Michael Brown, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between a prime contractor's financial health and its mergers and acquisitions (M&A) spending in the defense industry. It aims to provide models that give the United States Department of Defense (DoD) indications of future M&A activity, informing decision-makers and contributing to ensuring competitive markets that benefit the consumer.

The results show a significant relationship between efficiency and M&A spending, indicating that companies with lower efficiency tend to spend more on M&As. However, there was no significant relationship between M&A spending and a company's profitability or solvency. These results were consistent with previous research and …

An Integrated Space Test Lexicon: A Taxonomy For The Integrated Test And Evaluation Of Space Systems, Stephen K. Tullino, Andrew S. Keys, Robert A. Bettinger, Amy M. Cox, David R. Jacques

Faculty Publications

The proposed Integrated Space Test Lexicon is intended to amalgamate the numerous definitions of integrated (IT or IT&E), development test (DT or DT&E), and operational test (OT or OT&E) into unified, service-wide definitions, aligned with the Space Test Enterprise Vision. Refining such definitions will help distill the core characteristics of these fundamental test types to first identify space system activities composing what is traditionally known as DT and OT, then to provide a means of how these activities fit into the IT paradigm and support space system development. In forging a common understanding of how DT and OT support space …

Statistical Reliability Estimation Of Space Launch Vehicles, Brooke N. Wagenblast

Theses and Dissertations

Space launch vehicle reliability is imperative to understand since launch vehicles are crucial in getting payloads into space for a hopefully successful mission. This thesis examines the reliability of commercial, civil, and military space launch vehicles through trend analysis and a variety of statistical methods. Data sets obtained from the Seradata database are analyzed for trends by looking at data subsets including launch date, launch country, final mission orbit, section (commercial, civil or military), launch vehicle family and failed subsystem. First-level Bayesian analysis and mean success rates are performed, primarily split up by launch vehicle family and total launches, and …

Discerning Satellite Subsystem Costs To Improve Cost Estimation, Ryan A. Candella

Theses and Dissertations

The race for supremacy in the space environment is accelerating, with the United States taking a significant step by establishing its dedicated military branch for space operations. Achieving dominance in this realm relies on efficiently managing costs and securing rapid funding to initiate new programs. One step towards accomplishing this goal is to comprehend the cost distribution across the primary components of a Space Vehicle Bus and to delve into lower-level Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements for more precise and expeditious cost estimations. To achieve this, descriptive statistics for a variety of Bus subsystem WBS elements are provided in this …

Standardization Of Risk Classifications For Unmanned Space Vehicle Missions, Collin A. Gwaltney

Theses and Dissertations

This paper seeks to model risk classification levels (A-D) for 122 Space Vehicle programs. Models include multinomial logistic regression as well as random forest, a machine learning technique based on decision trees. We use independent variables (IVs) which are theoretically correlated to risk class for the regression and one random forest model. We then include all IVs and allow the random forest technique to use those which provide the most information on risk class before paring down the number of IVs to only 7. We show that the accuracy of predictions increases from 62% to 87% by using random forest …

Comparative Analysis Of Satellite Battery Technologies: A Cross-Sectional And Temporal Study Within And Across Battery Types, Andrew H. Chung

Theses and Dissertations

Trends in costs for batteries incorporated in satellite electrical power systems (EPS) have been identified by Space Systems Command (SSC) within the Unmanned Space Vehicle Cost Model (USCM) database. A subset of pre-1980s data consisting of Nickel-Cadmium battery costs was excluded from battery cost estimating relationship (CER) development as a result of this determination. This research aims to ascertain the impacts of these trends on satellite cost estimating practices by assessing developments in battery costs over time, comparing normalized Nickel-Cadmium (NiCd) / NickelHydrogen (NiH2) / Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) battery costs, identifying differences between the NiH2 and Li-Ion modern battery types, and …

Development Of Cost Factors For Satellite Rechargeable Batteries, Katelyn A. Clements

Theses and Dissertations

Factors are often used by the cost estimating profession to predict costs of future projects or project components. Cost factors can be useful when little to no cost data is available from which to build an initial estimate or as an easy-to-use cross check of a primary estimate. Specific to satellites, previous studies have examined cost factors at higher Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) levels (e.g., Level 2 or Level 3), while this research analyzes cost factors developed using data specific to rechargeable batteries at USCM WBS Level 4 and its parent, the Electrical Power System (EPS) at Level 3. Within …

Preliminary Architecture Assessment Of Lunar Surface Sensors For Cislunar Ssa, Clint J. Spesard

Theses and Dissertations

The exploration of the lunar and cislunar realm is becoming increasingly active as several entities, private and public, foreign and domestic, set their sights beyond traditional Earth-centered space operations. Along with this renewed activity is a growing need for comprehensive Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Space Traffic Management (STM) in the inherently chaotic cislunar system. This thesis seeks to embolden the study of cislunar SSA by considering the lunar-surface as a platform from which to conduct optical SSA. In this thesis, a lunar-based SSA system is heuristically optimized via a genetic algorithm through three separate implementations. All surface locations considered …

A System Theoretic Process Analysis Framework And Model Based Approach For Resilient Space Architecture Design, Eric T. Sommer

Theses and Dissertations

As the capabilities provided by space-based systems offer significant contributions toward defense applications, potential adversaries stand to gain significant value in disrupting them. Therefore, the United States must pursue the development and operation of resilient space architectures, capable of delivering capabilities in the face of disruptions. To support this development, systems engineering methods require innovation to effectively ensure design of complex space architectures to meet their objectives. This thesis recommends and demonstrates a System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) framework to qualitatively analyze space architectures. The analysis outputs identify design considerations, requirements, and constraints required for resilience. To enable a model-based systems …

Utilizing The System Engineering Trade Study Analysis Method To Analyze Patient Aeromedical Evacuation, Sara Shaghaghi, Jeremy M. Slagley, Michael E. Miller, Gaiven Varshney

Faculty Publications

The US Air Force has gone through many aeromedical patient isolation transport system designs. The first designs were developed in response to the Ebola outbreak in 2014 and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The trade study analysis part of the system engineering design method was used to analyze the historic and current aeromedical patient contamination control transport systems. A trade study is a process that evaluates alternatives based upon various “-ilities”, such as reconfigurability, flexibility, durability, cost, and more, and performs a systematic analysis to aid designers in producing a ‘good’ design alternative given the large set of possible solutions. …

Optimal Gyroid Infill For Space Launch, Jose R. Lopez Cordell

Theses and Dissertations

This research characterizes the optimal gyroid infill design for the 1st frequency response of composite sandwich panels. Structural performance may be improved by designing the gyroid infill within the sandwich panel to have a 1st mode resonance frequency above typical launch vehicle vibrations. Ensuring a component generates a natural frequency response above a designed threshold is mandatory for space launch systems to prevent damage. The gyroid, a Triply Periodic Minimal Surface (TPMS), has the potential to provide close to isotropic stiffness in the principal axes with a minimal amount of material, making it an attractive choice for this application. This …

To The Moon: Strategic Competition In The Cislunar Region, Shawn M. Willis

Faculty Publications

China’s advancing space capabilities, particularly in the cislunar region, call for increased cislunar space domain awareness on the part of the United States. US military and civilian decisionmakers must take into account the full scope of China’s cislunar plans and capabilities as the military builds space strategies and future force designs. The United States must also increase near-term investments that support more robust cislunar space domain awareness.

Satellite Tt&C For Cubesats With Applications For Grissom-1, Michael J. Bittle

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the assessment and analysis performed to characterize the communication subsystem used for command and telemetry transmission in support of the Grissom-1 Mission (GM1). The GM1 is unique in that it represents the pathfinder for a standardized 6U bus that serves as the basis for future CubeSat missions to host a variety of technical and scientific payloads, as prioritized by the Department of Defense, requiring flight demonstration or access to the orbital environment. Lab-based testing within an anechoic chamber provided link margin data required to characterize the command and telemetry links of the GM1. Experimental data describing the …

Applied Agile Digital Mission Engineering For Cislunar Space Domain Awareness, Benjamin R. Williams

Theses and Dissertations

In the backdrop of an expansion into cislunar space and a digital transformation, the author synthesizes a methodology from agile system development, DE, ME, and MBSE processes, methods, and tools to develop a basic RA and DT for cislunar SDA mission and system design. The Agile DME methodology is used to conduct basic requirements analysis, develop a concept, understand cislunar physics, study scenario geometries, and perform analyses and the DT implements, executes, and accelerates research by integrating a descriptive tool with analytical and simulation tools. This research demonstrates the value of automated Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis (MSA) work flows and …

Optimal Incorporation Of Non-Traditional Sensors Into The Space Domain Awareness Architecture, Albert R. Vasso

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Government is the world’s de facto provider of space object cataloging data, but is challenged to maintain pace in an increasingly complex space environment. This work advances a multi-disciplinary approach to better understand and evaluate an underexplored solution recommended by national policy, in which current collection capabilities are augmented with non-traditional sensors. System architecting and literature identify likely needs, performance measures, and contributors to a conceptualized Augmented Network. Multiple hypothetical telescope architectures are modeled and simulated on four separate days throughout the year, then evaluated against performance measures and constraints using optimization. Decision analysis and Pareto optimality …

Cubesat Development Framework, William D. Sousa

Theses and Dissertations

AFITs Center for Space Research and Assurance (CSRA) has developed several small satellites without a detailed developmental framework in place but future work will focus on CubeSat development with the intent of managing multiple builds concurrently. With the goal of each satellite being completed in three years, a comprehensive process needs to be established. Research revealed that the Department of Defense (DoD), U.S. Air Force (USAF), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) guidance on the acquisition and systems engineering processes require more reviews and deliverables than appropriate for CSRAs projects. The development processes from other universities divulge some aspects …

A Reference Architecture For Rapid Cubesat Development, Sean R. Kelly

Theses and Dissertations

The CubeSat class of nanosatellites has lowered the barrier of entry to space and has rapidly gained popularity in recent years. To successfully design a CubeSat system in a rapid cycle conducive to academic timelines, a Reference Architecture geared towards University CubeSat development would be helpful. A Reference Architecture would speed up the development process by providing a template, capturing previous work and lessons learned from subject matter experts, providing a framework to focus on the CubeSats design rather than the fine details of modeling software. A Reference Architecture can also add functionality that student teams could use and improve …

Comparison Of Decision Analysis Methods For A Cubesat Propulsion System, Jared L. Pilcher

Theses and Dissertations

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is becoming an increasingly congested orbital regime. As a result, propulsion systems on CubeSats are becoming a more desirable feature to provide them with collision avoidance capabilities. To date, there have been very few CubeSat launches with a propulsion system on them. Due to the relatively high cost of a propulsion system compared to the budget of small educational organizations, a decision analysis model is needed so that these organizations can make the best decision between whether to purchase a Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) product or to develop one within the organization. This research applies three decision analysis …

Modeling Situation Awareness In A Uav Scenario Using Sysml, Tommy R. Hernandez

Theses and Dissertations

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is rapidly moving towards using increasingly automated systems. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) will be used in contested environments where direct human control may be impossible for long stretches of time. This increase in automation brings with it challenges in maintaining resilient Situation Awareness (SA) for operators, who still need to set goals for the UAS to accomplish their missions. Simultaneously, the DoD is increasing the adoption of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in the development of weapon systems. This thesis explores the use of SysML to model of an SA repair system for a UAS …

Specifying Space Defense Operator Interfaces Through The Application Of Cognitive Systems Engineering And Prototyping, Justin E. Oryschak

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense needs better tools to support its operators as they strive to defend its space assets. The growing sophistication of anti-satellite weapons increasingly challenges the nation’s orbital communications and surveillance infrastructure. Operators face difficulties gathering useful information and dealing with the complexity of potential enemy actions. This research applied cognitive systems engineering and ecological interface design (EID) methodologies to create a prototype space mission management tool that enhances operator situation awareness and decision-making ability. Applied cognitive task analysis interviews were used to document space operator decision-making in their domain. Model-based systems engineering was applied to integrate work …

Design And Test Of An Autonomy Monitoring Service To Detect Divergent Behaviors On Unmanned Aerial Systems, Loay Y. Almannaei

Theses and Dissertations

Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) support many critical missions in the United State Air Force (USAF). Monitoring abnormal behavior is one of many responsibilities of the operator during a mission. Some behaviors are hard to be detect by an operator, especially when flying one or more autonomous vehicles; as such, detections require a high level of attention and focus to flight parameters. In this research, a monitoring system and its algorithm are designed and tested for a target fixed-wing UAV. The Autonomy Monitoring Service (AMS) compares the real vehicle or simulated Vehicle with a similar simulated vehicle using Software …

An Argument Against Satellite Resiliency: Simplicity In The Face Of Modern Satellite Design, Dax Linville, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

The US Air Force and the wider US government rely heavily on space-based capabilities in various orbital regimes to project national security and sovereignty. However, these capabilities are enabled by the design, launch, and operation of satellites produced with a design methodology that favors large, monolithic, and technologically exquisite space systems. Despite the ability for these satellites to provide enduring and resilient capabilities, they suffer from a woefully long acquisition process that debilitates any prospect of rapid satellite reconstitution in the event of a space war.

A Reference Architecture For Cubesat Development, Luke J. Farrell

Theses and Dissertations

Developing a space vehicle is a complex and detailed process, and while CubeSats are smaller and more accessible than traditional satellites the design process is relatively unchanged. Creating a viable space vehicle design requires detailed analysis of a set of mission needs in order to define the mission, with this need set used to then create the specific mission requirements. These requirements are used to formulate a concept of operations, and then move into developing a physical system for executing the mission. The successful production of CubeSats within an organization is contingent upon the accurate execution of the general CubeSat …

The Impact Of Changing The Size Of Aircraft Radar Displays On Visual Search In The Cockpit, Justin R. Marsh

Theses and Dissertations

Advances in sensor technology have enabled our fighter aircraft to find, fix, track, target, engage (F2T2E) at greater distances, providing the operator with more data within the battlefield. Modern aircraft are designed with larger displays while our legacy aircraft are being retrofitted with larger cockpit displays to enable display of the increased data. While this modification has been shown to enable improvements in human performance of many cockpit tasks, this effect is often not measured nor fully understood at a more generalizable level. This research outlines an approach to comparing human performance across two display sizes in future F-16 cockpits. …

Development, Test And Evaluation Of Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Systems In A Simulated Wide Area Search Scenario: An Implementation Of The Autonomous Systems Reference Architecture, Katherine E. Cheney, David D. King

Theses and Dissertations

The implementation and testing of autonomous and cooperative unmanned systems is challenging due to the inherent design complexity, infinite test spaces, and lack of autonomy specific measures. These challenges are limiting the USAF's ability to deploy and take advantage of tactical and strategic advantages offered by these systems. This research instantiates an Autonomous System Reference Architecture (ASRA) on a Wide Area Search (WAS) scenario as a test bed for rapid prototyping and evaluation of autonomous and cooperative systems. This research aims to pro- vide a framework to evaluate the system’s ability to achieve mission and autonomy objectives, develop reusable autonomous …

Utilizing Supercomputing To Analyze Risks Of An Emergent Large-Scale Debris Field In Low Earth Orbit, David J. Buehler

Theses and Dissertations

The likelihood of on-orbit breakups, whether spontaneous or the result of collision, will likely continue to grow as the barriers of entry to and use of space are reduced. In all orbital regimes, especially low Earth orbit (LEO), preparation to respond quickly when the next breakup occurs is critical. This research utilizes high-performance parallel computation along with python-driven Systems Tool Kit (STK) to model a large-scale on-orbit breakup in LEO, with the goal of returning data in less than 90 minutes. The breakup is characterized by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) EVOLVE 4.0 breakup model and is both …

Optimal Configurations For Aerosol Monitoring With Multi-Rotor Small Unmanned Aerial Systems, Inna D. Chavez

Theses and Dissertations

Applicability of aerosol sampling on multi-rotor unmanned aerial systems (UAS) platform was investigated. Multi-rotor UAS have impacts of wind speed, turbulence, and orientation possibly contributing to sampling bias. The SKC IMPACT sampler, Tecora C.A.Th.I.A., and modified three-dimensionally printed Universal Inlet for Airborne-Particle Size-Selective Sampling were selected based on particle size-selectivity and operational independence to wind. Airflow visualizations concluded that below UAS fuselage was optimal sampler placement. Tests were conducted with Arizona Road Dust in a still-air chamber, and aerosolized sugar in a wind tunnel. Inlet mounting was evaluated in, upright, upside-down, and horizontal orientations. Horizontal orientations of all inlets resulted …

Optimal Design Of A Hexakis Icosahedron Vacuum Based Lighter Than Air Vehicle, Joseph R. Schwemmer

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the rising cost and scarcity of helium, new methods to ensure buoyancy for lighter-than-air vehicles (LTAVs) are being sought. One alternative under study uses an internal vacuum to reduce the weight to buoyancy ratio. It's a novel approach; however, the vacuum presents challenges for the vehicle's structure. The structure must have minimum mass while preventing buckling and excess stress throughout the frame and membrane. The structure under analysis is a hexakis icosahedron with a membrane covering. Achieving minimum mass involves optimizing the structure under the loading conditions. Finite-element analysis (FEA) and direct-search methods are employed, providing an optimal …