Business Commons^™

Predicting Schedule Duration For Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation To Initial Operational Capability, Christopher A. Jimenez

Theses and Dissertations

Accurately predicting the most realistic schedule for a defense acquisitions program is an extremely difficult task considering the inherent risk and uncertainties present in the early stages of a program. We use a multiple regression analysis to predict schedule duration in a defense acquisition program. The prediction scope of our research is limited to predicting schedule duration from program initiation to initial operation capability (IOC).We use the data from 56 programs across all services, which was acquired from a SAR database created by RAND. We were able to achieve an R2 of 0.429 and an Adjusted R2 of 0.384 in …

Predicting Cost Growth Using Programs Reviews And Milestones For Dod Aircraft, Scott J. Kozlak

Theses and Dissertations

Past research shows predicting cost growth is an important topic with DoD systems. Researchers have attempted to predict total program cost growth as well as identify predictors of program cost growth. Our research addresses this through examining cost growth at reviews and milestones along an aircrafts schedule. We assess cost growth factors at four major reviews, Critical Design Review, First Flight, Development Test and Evaluation End, and Initial Operating Capability. The first portion of the analysis focuses on identifying cost growth factors and percent of total cost growth at the four program reviews. The second portion identifies predictors of cost …

Analysis Of Inpatient Hospital Staff Mental Workload By Means Of Discrete-Event Simulation, Erich W. Maxheimer

Theses and Dissertations

Many process improvement tools have been applied to the healthcare industry to improve safety and efficiency. However, nearly all of these tools have neglected to explicitly quantify mental workload of healthcare providers despite the consensus that it is related to human performance. This research uses the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT), a discrete-event simulation (DES), to quantify mental workload. Specifically, this research examines staff members in an inpatient unit at the Wright-Patterson Medical Center to detect workload differences between staff, identify trends which lead to high workload demands, evaluate the influence of patient load on mental workload, and test …

Earned Value Reporting On Agile Software Development Programs Within The Department Of Defense, Elizabeth G. Hodson

Theses and Dissertations

The correct measurement of earned value on agile software development programs has recently been identified as a concern by software developers implementing agile development methods. This research attempts to address the difficulties in reporting earned value on agile development programs, and the differences between the measures of completion in agile development versus earned value reporting. The major difference was identified to be in translating between the work originally planned and the work that was “recently” planned as part of the agile development process. This difference, if not transparent, leads to different measurements of earned value and inconsistent reports of a …

Cost Analysis Reform: Where Do We Go From Here? A Delphi Study Of Views Of Leading Experts, Thomas W. Lamb

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DOD) has faced many fiscal challenges in recent years, and these challenges have driven cost saving initiatives across all services and career fields. Many improvement initiatives or new policies aimed at better estimating, controlling, and reducing costs have been initiated to meet fiscal challenges. The senior leaders within the cost analysis workforce are faced with the challenge of managing change within their organizations to improve cost analysis processes and practices, while continuing to provide key decision support in the form of ongoing quality cost estimates.

This purpose of this research is to generate applicable research thrust …

Determining The Degree Of The Routinization Of Additive Manufacturing In The Air Logistics Complexes, Candis A. Woods

Theses and Dissertations

Fiscal constraints have affected the USAF’s spending and sustainment of weapons systems that are being utilized beyond their programmed life cycle; therefore, it is imperative that processes be given the critical eye for improvement, innovative approaches, and/or best practice implementation. The AFSC, part of the AFMC, has embarked on a groundbreaking effort to transform operations and leverage industry best practices, while maintaining focus on warfighter support to create “The AFSC Way.” The AFSC Way is based on a shared leadership model that emphasizes speed, safety, and quality, which gives way to innovative ideas and new technologies in order to achieve …

United States Air Force Officer Manpower Planning Problem Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Amelia E. Bradshaw

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force (USAF) is concerned with managing its officer corps to ensure sufficient personnel for mission readiness. Manpower planning for the USAF is a complex process which requires making decisions about accessions. Uncertainty about officer retention complicates such decisions. We formulate a Markov decision process model of the Air Force officer manpower planning problem (AFO-MPP) and utilize a least squares approximate policy iteration algorithm as an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) technique to attain solutions. Computational experiments are conducted on two AFO-MPP instances to compare the performance of the policy determined with the ADP algorithm to a benchmark …

Forging Tomorrow's Air, Space, And Cyber War Fighters: Recommendations For Integration And Development, Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

Today’s Airmen operate in contested environments, and years of technical-data spillage, coupled with policies emphasizing commercial-off-the-shelf acquisition, ensure that the immediate future will remain contested as our adversaries seek to exploit level playing fields. Long gone are the days of Operation Desert Storm and Enduring Freedom when air superiority dominated and the supporting elements of space, communications, and computers were largely out of reach for many nation-states. Since then, technology has become ubiquitously intertwined in weapon systems and today largely turns the gears of warfare, allowing a range of actors to erode national instruments of power.

The Influence Of Operational Resources And Activities On Indirect Personnel Costs: A Multilevel Modeling Approach, Bradley C. Boehmke, Alan W. Johnson, Edward D. White, Jeffery D. Weir, Mark A. Gallagher

Faculty Publications

Indirect activities often represent an underemphasized, yet significant, contributing source of costs for organizations. In order to manage indirect costs, organizations must understand how these costs behave relative to changes in operational resources and activities. This is of particular interest to the Air Force and its sister services, because recent and projected reductions in defense spending are forcing reductions in their operational variables, and insufficient research exists to help them understand how this may influence indirect costs. Furthermore, although academic research on indirect costs has advanced the knowledge behind the modeling and behavior of indirect costs, significant gaps in the …

Acquisition Challenge: The Importance Of Incompressibility In Comparing Learning Curve Models, Justin R. Moore, John J. Elshaw, Adedeji B. Badiru, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The Department of Defense (DoD) cost estimating methodology currently employs T. P. Wrights 75-plus-year-old learning curve formula. The goal of this research was to examine alternative learning curve models and determine if a more reliable and valid cost estimation method exists, which could be incorporated within the DoD acquisition environment. This study tested three alternative learning models (the Stanford-B model, DeJong's learning formula, and the S-Curve model) to compare predicted against actual costs for the F-15 A-E jet fighter platform. The results indicate that the S-Curve and DeJong models offer improvement over current estimation techniques, but more importantly and unexpectedly …

Supply Chain Interoperability Measurement, Christos E. Chalyvidis

Theses and Dissertations

Academia recognizes that although supply chains have an inherent need to be validated for their performance, supply chain performance measurement systems are still inadequate and one of the major barriers to successful supply chain collaboration. In this research, theory of Systems Architecture is used to make the first step towards an innovative supply chain performance measure defined as supply chain interoperability. Interoperability is considered a similarity metric with regard to a set of deterministic and stochastic characters (criteria) describing supply chain participants, a methodology that adapts and expands an interoperability measurement tool initially developed in and for a military context. …

Advancing Cost-Effective Readiness By Improving The Supply Chain Management Of Sparse, Intermittently-Demanded Parts, Gregory H. Gehret

Theses and Dissertations

Many firms generate revenue by successfully operating machines such as welding robots, rental cars, aircraft, hotel rooms, amusement park attractions, etc. It is critical that these revenue-generating machines be operational according to the firm s target or requirement; thus, assuring sustained revenue generation for the firm. Machines can and do fail, and in many cases, restoring the downed machine requires spare part(s), which are typically managed by the supply chain. The scope of this research is on the supply chain management of the very sparse, intermittently-demanded spare parts. These parts are especially difficult to manage because they have little to …

An Optimization Of The Maintenance Assets Distribution Network In The Argentine Air Force, Santiago Hernandez

Theses and Dissertations

The Argentine Air Force Materiel General Directorate is responsible for the supply and distribution of reparable and consumable assets to support the operations of more than thirty different weapons systems. The Materiel General Directorate recently initiated an effort to assure logistic support and to gradually increase the productivity and efficiency of the related processes. The distribution of consumable and reparable assets was a key process identified as inefficient and targeted for improvement, and a recommendation was made to consider organic or private transportation and reduce transportation time in order to improve responsiveness and drive down logistic pipeline costs. This thesis …

A Process Improvement Study On A Military System Of Clinics To Manage Patient Demand And Resource Utilization Using Discrete-Event Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis, And Cost-Benefit Analysis, Michael Q. Corpuz

Theses and Dissertations

Inefficiencies in the healthcare system are a growing concern. Long wait-times are a concern at military clinics because it takes servicemembers away from performing their duties. Managing wait-times are particularly challenging due to frequent relocations of servicemembers and variable patient demands that are less likely to be experienced by civilian clinics. Military clinics must be capable to meet increasing demand when servicemembers require a Deployment Health Assessment; it also needs to be capable of handling an instantaneous surge of walk-ins when a medical incident occurs in the local area. It must be able to meet these demands in a fiscally …

Forecasting Foreign Currency Exchange Rates For Air Force Budgeting, Nicholas R. Gardner

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines the current method of forecasting foreign currency exchange rates for the annual US Air Force budget. Using 5 methods against the status quo of a center-weighted average, the paper evaluates the absolute percent error (APE) over three time periods extending from Fiscal Year (FY) 1979 to FY 2014. The results strongly indicate that four of the alternative methods outperform over the short term, and one method for all three time periods. Furthermore, a non-parametric comparison of the median APE demonstrates statistical similarities between the four methods over the short term, and allows for the Air Force to …

The Effect Of Stages And Levels Of Automation And Reliability On Workload And Performance For Remotely Piloted Aircraft Operations, Stephen P. Katrein

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates incorporating different stages and levels of automation with varying degrees of reliability into a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) surveillance task in order to determine how automation implementation and reliability affect operator workload and system performance. The study uses IMPRINT discrete event simulation to evaluate three levels of reliability in twelve different baseline automation implementations within a remotely piloted vehicle task. Three stages and four levels are modeled, for a total of twelve combinations, along with a baseline task with no automation. The stages modeled are the information acquisition stage, the decision and action selection stage, and the …

Predicting Citizen Satisfaction With Government Services In Belize, Samuel W. Logan

Theses and Dissertations

Assessing the effectiveness of humanitarian assistance and foreign aid has presented a challenge to personnel tasked with these operations. Answering the question "are we winning hearts and minds" has similarly eluded military personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan. This research presents a review of humanitarian assistance and foreign aid conducted by the U.S. government and literature on U.S. military doctrine regarding humanitarian assistance and infrastructure investment. The research builds upon expectancy disconfirmation theory to determine the strongest predictors of citizen satisfaction with government services. Case study data was collected in Belize before and after a U.S. military humanitarian and civil assistance …

Antecedents To Organizational Performance: Theoretical And Practical Implications For Aircraft Maintenance Officer Force Development, Andrew L. Cooper

Theses and Dissertations

This research explored the impact of Aircraft Maintenance Officer human capital, learning organization, and knowledge management on organizational performance. Survey methodology was utilized to gather data with both theoretical and practical implications on 21A force development practices. Solicitation of information regarding 21A competencies, utility of current AF logistics courses, and latent constructs were conducted through a web-based self-administered cross-sectional survey. Examination of the latent variables human capital, learning organization, and knowledge management was conducted using exploratory factor analysis and multiple linear regression supporting a positive effect on organizational performance. Practical application of the theoretical findings could yield potential cost savings …

An Inventory And Safety Stock Analysis Of Air Force Medical Service Pharmaceuticals, Blake Smith

Theses and Dissertations

A significant challenge facing the Air Force Medical Service (AFMS) Military Treatment Facilities (MTFs) is the perishability costs associated with its pharmaceutical stock. During a two year time period, the AFMS returned expired or nearly expired pharmaceuticals valued at over $23,000,000. In response to the waste represented by pharmaceutical perishability cost, this thesis analyzes the historical inventory management decisions of 173 MTF/pharmaceutical combinations and proposes an alternative inventory control policy to reduce perishability costs. Based on the critical nature of pharmaceuticals and importance of generating high patient satisfaction, the proposed alternative inventory control system was required to be cognizant of …

Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation

Theses and Dissertations

In the late 1990s, the Air Force eliminated over 200 KC-135 navigators, leaving 50 remaining for the aircraft's most complex Special Operations Air Refueling (SOAR) mission. As the Air Force unveils the KC-46 Pegasus, this mission will continue but without a position for the navigator. Instead, navigators will undergo divestment as the SOAR mission transfers to the KC-46. Current plans indicate navigators will not only remain as the KC-46 arrives, but inbound navigators will continue arriving until 2018. This thesis applies the Delphi method, a process eliciting analysis anonymously from a panel of experts, in order to examine the elements …

Space Separatism: Degree Of Differentiation, Luke R. Stover, Alan A. Johnson

Faculty Publications

Space is so important that the DOD recognizes it as one of five domains in which US forces operate (the other four are land, sea, air, and information). In 2001 Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld designated the Department of the Air Force (DAF) the “Executive Agent for Space for the DOD.” Given the national importance of space activities, the formation of a separate space force has been a topic of persistent discussion in academic and doctrinal circles ever since the United States first entered the space age. Proponents of a separate force argue that because space is an inherently unique …

Initial Capabilities Documents: A 10-Year Retrospective Of Tools, Methodologies, And Best Practices, Bryan D. Main, Michael P. Kretser, Joshua Shearer, Darrin A. Ladd

Faculty Publications

The Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) is 10 years old and ripe for review. A central output document of the JCIDS process is an Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) used by the Department of Defense to define gaps in a functional capability area and define new capabilities required. The research team analyzed 10 years of ICDs to identify methods and trends. The team found that several methodologies were favored and a convergence emerged in format and necessary content. Additionally, potential shortfalls in current best practices of interest to implementers and decision makers are identified. Guidelines and best practices are …

An Analysis Of The Impact Of Variation In Mean Time Between Demand On Air Force Fleet Level Aircraft Parts Inventories, Andrew J. Berger, Caleb S. Murphy

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis researched the accuracy of demand forecasting and impact of demand variation on requirements definition for Air Force aircraft secondary items. Specifically, this thesis sought to answer three questions: How does the Air Force calculate item requirements? , How accurate is the current system at predicting future item requirements? , and How do variations in predicted demand change item requirements? The literature review described the Air Force supply system for aircraft secondary items. Analysis into current demand forecast accuracy found that the level of error between actual and predicted historic demand was as high as 92% for the items …

Adverse Impacts Of Furlough Programs On Employee Work Rate And Organizational Productivity, Adedeji B. Badiru

Faculty Publications

This article is primarily a research-provoking exposition against the management approach used in the 2013 government furlough program. It is intended to prompt potentially productive research investigations on the impact of personnel furloughs, particularly on defense acquisition programs. Defense acquisition programs are time-sensitive and systems oriented. What appears as a minor delay in one unit of an acquisition life cycle can lead to long-term encumbrances within the entire defense system, resulting in enormous cost escalation. Pertinent analytical techniques/methodologies are provided to illustrate potential pathways for further research studies of furloughs and how they adversely impact organizational productivity. The author’s intent …

Interface Evaluation For Open System Architectures, Joshua A. Burger

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops a deterministic interface evaluation framework (IEF) in support of the principles identified in the Modular Open Systems Approach (MOSA). Interface evaluation in weapon system development requires a Decision Analysis (DA) method capable of handling a continuously growing alternative set and functioning with limited availability of senior decision makers. Value Focused Thinking (VFT) is selected as the best method for addressing the parameters of the framework. Inputs from the Medium Altitude Unmanned Aircraft System program office are used. An initial value threshold is established to guide open interface decisions, based on assessments of 15 historical decision scenarios. Open …

A Change Management Approach To Enhance Facility Maintenance Programs, Stanton P. Brown

Theses and Dissertations

A recent study assigned a grade of D+ on the nation's public infrastructure. Because of this poor asset condition, many organizations tend to respond to maintenance in a reactive mode; however, relying on corrective maintenance leads to increased maintenance costs due to unplanned downtime, increased labor costs, and inefficient use of personnel. To address this situation, asset management (AM) principles should be employed to transition organizations towards a proactive maintenance program. Unfortunately, it has been shown that two-thirds of the organizations failed to implement general change efforts. Therefore, an organizational change management framework should be followed to implement a change …

Investigation Into The Ratio Of Operating And Support Costs To Life-Cycle Costs For Dod Weapon Systems, Gary L. Jones, Edward D. White, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

Recent legislation, such as the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, requires a renewed emphasis on understanding Operating and Support (O&S) costs. Conventional wisdom within the acquisition community suggests a 70:30 cost ratio with respect to O&S and acquisition of an average weapon system. Using 37 Air Force and Navy programs, the authors estimate the mean overall ratio of O&S costs to acquisition costs to be closer to 55:45, although many weapon systems displayed significant deviation from this 55 percent average. Contributing factors such as life expectancy and acquisition strategy (i.e., new system or modification) affect this variance. Their …

Current Barriers To Successful Implementation Of Fist Principles, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin

Faculty Publications

The Fast, Inexpensive, Simple, and Tiny (FIST) framework proposes a broad set of organizational values, but provides limited guidance on practical implementation. Implementing FIST principles requires clarifying the definitions of “fast,” “inexpensive,” and “simple,” recognizing where FIST does and does not apply. Additionally, a subset of the FIST heuristics was expanded upon to increase their usefulness for practitioners. The primary research findings are that FIST principles are less conducive for highly complex or novel systems, immature technologies, future needs, acquisitions in early development phases, or when performance is the foremost value. FIST principles were also found to be constrained by …

Capturing Creative Program Management Best Practices, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin

Faculty Publications

This research attempted to capture the creative aspects of government program management in three specific areas: efficiently navigating oversight, capturing the intent of regulations, and developing innovative risk management practices. Respected acquisition leaders with diverse backgrounds and experiences were interviewed with ranks ranging from 0-6 to 0-8 and GS-15 to SES. Several contractor interviews were conducted for specific purposes. The data were iteratively coded and analyzed using ATLAS.ti. The results were categorized into four themes, each with three sub-elements. Differences between respondents with program director experience and those with rapid acquisition experience are discussed. A survey was then distributed to …

Identifying, Tracking, And Prioritizing Parts Unavailability, Troy T. Huber

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force is pursuing several efficiency initiatives designed to reduce support function costs. One such initiative is an effort to reduce the flow days of items being repaired in the Air Force's organic depots. Many end items are affected by awaiting parts (AWP) delays, which increase total flow days. The first step in reducing AWP delays is to identify which piece parts are causing the delays. A gap analysis was conducted to identify a process for creating a list of piece parts that are causing AWP delays. In addition, a clinimetric method was used to develop an aggregate measure …