Business Commons^™

Garbage In ≠ Garbage Out: Exploring Gan Resilience To Image Training Set Degradations, Nicholas Crino, Bruce A. Cox, Nathan B. Gaw

Faculty Publications

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have received immense attention in recent years due to their ability to capture complex, high-dimensional data distributions without the need for extensive labeling. Since their conception in 2014, a wide array of GAN variants have been proposed featuring alternative architectures, optimizers, and loss functions with the goal of improving performance and training stability. This manuscript focuses on quantifying the resilience of a GAN architecture to specific modes of image degradation. We conduct systematic experimentation to empirically determine the effects of 10 fundamental image degradation modes, applied to the training image dataset, on the Fréchet inception distance …

Influencing Air Force Logisticians' Information Seeking During The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role Of Organizational Meetings In An Expanded Prism Framework, Matthew D. Roberts, Christopher T. Price, Seong-Jong Joo

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This research aims to understand how organizational workplace meetings surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic impacted logistics Airmen across the United States Air Force and how these meetings impacted their risk seeking behavior on social media.

Design/methodology/approach: This survey research tested an extended Planned Risk Information Risk Seeking Model (PRISM) with organizational meetings as an antecedent to determine if current meetings influenced an Airman's perceived behavioral control, attitude toward seeking, subjective norms, knowledge sufficiency and intention to seek information regarding COVID-19.

Findings: Results of the CFA showed that the expanded PRISM model had good model fit. Additionally, using …

Afit Strategic Plan: Accelerating Superiority 2023-2028, Afit Strategic Planning Committee, Air Force Institute Of Technology, Walter F. Jones

AFIT Documents

AFIT Vision: Leading defense-focused education, research, and consultation to accelerate military superiority across all domains.

AFIT Mission: Educate defense professionals to innovatively accomplish the deterrence and warfighting missions of the U.S. Air and Space Forces.

Incentivizing Innovation: Promoting Technical Competency To Win Future Wars., James E. Bevins

Faculty Publications

Despite numerous studies and initiatives, most current Air Force efforts to add science and technology talent have been insufficient. This begs the question: How does the Air Force incentivize and promote the necessary technical competence required to win future competition, conflicts, and wars? Several key initiatives, grounded in behavioral economics, can incentivize innovation and pursue science and technology expertise. Developed in the context of peer adversaries’ actions; global trends in technology, competition, and conflict; and the global competition for science and technology talent, these recommendations have the potential to reform institutional culture and unleash the creativity and talent of the …

Improving Data-Driven Infrastructure Degradation Forecast Skill With Stepwise Asset Condition Prediction Models, Kurt R. Lamm, Justin D. Delorit, Michael N. Grussing, Steven J. Schuldt

Faculty Publications

Organizations with large facility and infrastructure portfolios have used asset management databases for over ten years to collect and standardize asset condition data. Decision makers use these data to predict asset degradation and expected service life, enabling prioritized maintenance, repair, and renovation actions that reduce asset life-cycle costs and achieve organizational objectives. However, these asset condition forecasts are calculated using standardized, self-correcting distribution models that rely on poorly-fit, continuous functions. This research presents four stepwise asset condition forecast models that utilize historical asset inspection data to improve prediction accuracy: (1) Slope, (2) Weighted Slope, (3) Condition-Intelligent Weighted Slope, and (4) …

Supply Chain Resilience: How Autonomous Rovers Empirically Provide Relief To Constrained Flight Line Maintenance Activities, Mary A. Stanton, Jason Anderson, John M. Dickens, Lance Champagne

Faculty Publications

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to explore the utility of autonomous transport across two independent airframe maintenance operations at a single location. Design/methodology/approach – This study leveraged discrete event simulation that encompassed real-world conditions on a United States Air Force flight line. Though the Theory of Constraints (TOC) lens, a high-demand, human-controlled delivery asset is analyzed and the impact of introducing an autonomous rover delivery vehicle is assessed. The authors’ simulations explored varying numbers and networks of rovers as alternative sources of delivery and evaluated these resources’ impact against current flight line operations. Findings – This research …

Pilot Development: An Empirical Mixed-Method Analysis, Jonathan Slottje, Jason Anderson, John M. Dickens, Adam D. Reiman

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Pilot upgrade training is critical to aircraft and passenger safety. This study aims to identify variances in the US Air Force C-130J pilot upgrade training based on geographic location and provide a model to enhance policy that will impact future pilot training efforts that lower cost and increase operator quality and proficiency.
Design/methodology/approach — This research employed a mixed-method approach. First, the authors collected data and analyzed 90 C-130J pilots' aviation records and then contextualized this analysis with interviews of experts. Finally, the authors present a modified version of Six Sigma's define–measure–analyze–improve–control (DMAIC) that identifies and reduces the …

Transportation Service Level Impact On Aircraft Availability, Vincent Mclean, Adam D. Reiman

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Aircraft fail to meet mission capable rate goals due to a lack of supply of aircraft parts in inventory where the aircraft breaks. This triggers an order at the repair location. To maximize mission capable rate, the time from order to delivery needs to be minimized. The purpose of this research is to examine the case of three airfields for the order to delivery time of mission critical aircraft parts for a specific aircraft type. Design/methodology/approach — This research captured data from three information systems to assess the order fulfillment process. The data were analyzed to determine the …

Sortie-Based Aircraft Component Demand Rate To Predict Requirements, Thomas R. O'Neal, John M. Dickens, Lance Champaign, Aaron V. Glassburner, Jason R. Anderson, Timothy W. Breitbach

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Forecasting techniques improve supply chain resilience by ensuring that the correct parts are available when required. In addition, accurate forecasts conserve precious resources and money by avoiding new start contracts to produce unforeseen part requests, reducing labor intensive cannibalization actions and ensuring consistent transportation modality streams where changes incur cost. This study explores the effectiveness of the United States Air Force’s current flying hour-based demand forecast by comparing it with a sortie-based demand forecast to predict future spare part needs. Design/methodology/approach — This study employs a correlation analysis to show that demand for reparable parts on certain aircraft …

Developing A Resilient, Robust And Efficient Supply Network In Africa, Jade F. Preston, Bruce A. Cox, Paul P. Rebeiz, Timothy W. Breitbach

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Supply chains need to balance competing objectives; in addition to efficiency, supply chains need to be resilient to adversarial and environmental interference and robust to uncertainties in long-term demand. Significant research has been conducted designing efficient supply chains and recent research has focused on resilient supply chain design. However, the integration of resilient and robust supply chain design is less well studied. The purpose of the paper is to include resilience and robustness into supply chain design. Design/methodology/approach — The paper develops a method to include resilience and robustness into supply chain design. Using the region of West …

Shifting Satellite Control Paradigms: Operational Cybersecurity In The Age Of Megaconstellations, Carl A. Poole [*], Robert A. Bettinger, Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

The introduction of automated satellite control systems into a space-mission environment historically dominated by human-in-the-loop operations will require a more focused understanding of cybersecurity measures to ensure space system safety and security. On the ground-segment side of satellite control, the debut of privately owned communication antennas for rent and a move to cloud-based operations or mission centers will bring new requirements for cyber protection for both Department of Defense and commercial satellite operations alike. It is no longer a matter of whether automation will be introduced to satellite operations, but how quickly satellite operators can adapt to the onset of …

Exploring Performance In Air Force Science And Technology Programs, Eric A. Plack, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Clay M. Koschnick

Faculty Publications

Science and technology (S&T) programs serve an important function in the defense acquisition process as the initial phase leading to discovery and development of warfighting technology. The results of these programs impact the larger major defense acquisition programs, which integrate the technologies in subsequent phases of the life cycle. Despite this important role, little prior research has examined the performance of S&T programs. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of technological maturation as a critical success factor in Air Force S&T programs. The results suggest that S&T programs with mature technologies are more likely to experience above average …

Prioritizing Facilities Linked To Corporate Strategic Objectives Using A Fuzzy Model, Devin Depalmer, Steven J. Schuldt, Justin D. Delorit

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: Limited facilities operating and modernization budgets require organizations to carefully identify, prioritize and authorize projects to ensure allocated resources align with strategic objectives. Traditional facility prioritization methods using risk matrices can be improved to increase granularity in categorization and avoid mathematical error or human cognitive biases. These limitations restrict the utility of prioritizations and if erroneously used to select projects for funding, they can lead to wasted resources. This paper aims to propose a novel facility prioritization methodology that corrects these assessment design and implementation issues.

A Learning Curve Model Accounting For The Flattening Effect In Production Cycles, Evan R. Boone, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru

Faculty Publications

We investigate production cost estimates to identify and model modifications to a prescribed learning curve. Our new model examines the learning rate as a decreasing function over time as opposed to a constant rate that is frequently used. The purpose of this research is to determine whether a new learning curve model could be implemented to reduce the error in cost estimates for production processes. A new model was created that mathematically allows for a “flattening effect,” which typically occurs later in the production process. This model was then compared to Wright’s learning curve, which is a popular method used …

Quantifying The Effects Of Aircraft Engine Upgrades On Operating And Support Costs, Bradford A. Myers, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, R. David Fass

Faculty Publications

For fixed wing aircraft within the U.S. Air Force, Operating and Support (O&S) costs encompass a large portion of total life cycle costs. O&S costs include fuel, maintenance, and engine upgrades. To the authors’ knowledge, no study to date has attempted to empirically quantify the realized effects of new aircraft engines on sustainment costs. Utilizing the Air Force Total Ownership Cost database, they focused on new engines appearing on the C-5s, C-130s, and C-135s. Although narrow in scope, results suggest newer engines have lower fuel costs. Maintenance costs for newer engines were not consistently higher or lower than the engines …

Agile Software Development: Creating A Cost Of Delay Framework For Air Force Software Factories, J. Goljan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott Drylie, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The Air Force software development environment is experiencing a paradigm shift. The 2019 Defense Innovation Board concluded that speed and cycle time must become the most important software metrics if the US military is to maintain its advantage over adversaries.¹ This article proposes utilizing a cost-o­f-d­elay (CoD) framework to prioritize projects toward optimizing readiness. Cost-­of-d­elay is defined as the economic impact resulting from a delaying product delivery or, said another way, opportunity cost. In principle, CoD assesses the negative impacts resulting from changes to the priority of a project.

Use Of Factors In Development Estimates: Improving The Cost Analysis Toolkit, Matthew R. Markman, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Factor Estimating is a technique commonly used by defense acquisition analysts to develop cost estimations. However, previous studies developing factors for the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase of the life cycle are limited. This research expands the current toolkit for cost analysts by developing cost factors in previously unexplored areas. More specifically, over 400 cost reports are utilized to create new standard cost factors that are delineated by five categories: commodity type, contract type, contractor type, development type, and Service. The factors are developed for those elements that are common in a wide array of projects such as program …

Establishing The Foundations To Measure Organizational Agility For Military Organizations, Jeremy R. Geiger, John J. Elshaw, David R. Jacques

Faculty Publications

There is an ongoing demand for organizations to become more agile in order to prosper amongst their competitors. Many military organizations have declared a renewed focus towards organizational agility. The goal of this research is to isolate the variables needed to measure organizational agility (OA) in military organizations, allowing for the future development of a suitable method to measure OA without the need to interact with outside organizations. This article begins by providing a suitable and formal definition of organizational agility by exploring and analyzing relevant scholarly literature on the subject. Related terms, such as organizational resiliency, flexibility, robustness, versatility, …

Order Fulfillment Errors And Military Aircraft Readiness, Michael Weber, Daniel Steeneck, William Cunningham

Faculty Publications

This paper aims to measure the effect of supply discrepancy reports (SDRs) on military aircraft readiness metrics, including aircraft availability, not mission capable supply (NMCS) hours, cannibalizations and mission-impaired capability awaiting parts (MICAP) hours.

Monthly SDR, NMCS, aircraft cannibalizations and MICAP data from 2009 to 2018 are analyzed using linear regression and independent samples t-tests to examine whether discrepant shipments negatively impact aircraft readiness.

Research In Defense Logistics: Where Are We And Where Are We Going?, George A. Zsidisin, Amanda Bresler, Benjamin T. Hazen, Keith F. Schneider, Taylor H. Wilkerson

Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to provide insight on high-interest areas of research in defense-related logistics and supply chain management and opportunities for advancing theory and practice in this domain.

Multi-Study Analysis Of Learning Culture, Human Capital And Operational Performance In Supply Chain Management: The Moderating Role Of Workforce Level, Robert E. Overstreet, Joseph B. Skipper, Joseph R. Huscroft Jr., Matt J. Cherry, Andrew L. Cooper

Faculty Publications

Purpose — The purpose of this study is to empirically evaluate the relationship between learning culture, workforce level, human capital and operational performance in two diverse supply chain populations, aircraft maintenance and logistics readiness. Design/methodology/approach — Drawing upon competence-based view of the firm and human capital theory, this paper analyzes data from two studies. Findings — The results provide support for the hypothesized model. Workforce level moderates the relationship between learning culture and human capital, and human capital partially mediates the relationship between learning culture and operational performance. Research limitations/implications — The findings have implications for behavioral supply chain management …

Developmental Test And Requirements Best Practices Of Successful Information Systems Efforts Using Agile Methods, Jeremy D. Kramer, Torrey J. Wagner

Faculty Publications

This article provides insights into the current state of developmental testing (DT) and requirements management in Department of Defense information systems employing Agile development. The authors describe the study methodology and provide an overview of Agile development and testing. Insights are described for requirements, detailed planning, test execution, and reporting. This work articulates best practices related to DT and requirements management strategies for programs employing modernized Software Development Life Cycle practices.

Cost Performance Index Stability: Insights From Environmental Remediation Projects, Denis S. Clayson, Edward D. White, Alfred E. Thal Jr.

Faculty Publications

The purpose of this study was to investigate the stability of the cost performance index (CPI) for environmental remediation projects as the topic is not addressed in the literature. CPI is defined as the earned value of work performed divided by the actual cost of the work, and CPI stability represents the point in time in a project after which the CPI varies by less than 20 percent (measured in different ways).

Delineating Operating And Support Costs In Aircraft Platforms, Garrett B. O'Hanlon, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory E. Brown

Faculty Publications

As the costs of Department of Defense (DoD) Weapon Systems increase, the ability to estimate the Operating and Support (O&S) costs accurately for the various weapon systems has become vital to long-term affordability. This research focuses on the O&S costs of the Air Force fixed-wing arsenal (i.e., platforms) for 1996–2016. First, the Cost Element Structure (CES) for 52 aircraft platforms and seven operational mission categories is analyzed to derive the descriptive statistics per aircraft category through examination of actual historical costs. Second, testing to identify statistical differences within the O&S CES construct across various Air Force aircraft categories is conducted. …

Cyber War And Deterrence: Applying A General Theoretical Framework, Isaac Nacita [*], Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

There is a saying that politicians and generals are always fighting the last war, which is emphasized when the weapons and characteristics of warfare are changing rapidly. However, if this is true, it is often not due to an inability to learn lessons from previous conflicts, but to “overlearn” or overcompensate for the failures and experiences of the past. In reality, this is not a learning problem but one of forming poor implications from historical events, which leads to poor applications of doctrine the next time around. The DOD now acknowledges that warfare has extended into cyberspace, and it is …

Analyzing Operating And Support Costs For Air Force Aircraft, Scott C. Hewitson, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory Brown

Faculty Publications

Purpose: Recent legislation resulted in an elevation of operating and support (O&S) costs’ relative importance for decision-making in Department of Defense programs. However, a lack of research in O&S hinders a cost analyst’s abilities to provide accurate sustainment estimates. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to investigate when Air Force aircraft O&S costs stabilize and to what degree. Next, a parametric O&S model is developed to predict median O&S costs for use as a new tool for cost analyst practitioners.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Utilizing the Air Force total ownership cost database, 44 programs consisting of 765 observations from 1996 to 2016 …

Unmasking Cost Growth Behavior: A Longitudinal Study, Cory N. D'Amico, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott R. Kozlak

Faculty Publications

This article examines how cost growth factors (CGF) change over a program’s acquisition life cycle for 36 Department of Defense aircraft programs. Starting from Milestone B, the authors examine CGFs at five gateways: Critical Design Review, First Flight (FF), the end of Developmental Test and Evaluation (DT&E), Initial Operational Capability, and Full Operational Capability. Each CGF is assigned a color rating based upon the program’s cost growth: Green (low), Amber (moderate), or Red (high). Significant findings include dependencies among similar CGF color ratings and cost growth occurring primarily between FF and the end of DT&E during a program’s life cycle.

Load Planning Processes To Enhance Cargo Compartment Utilization, Nathan J. Carlson, Adam D. Reiman, Robert E. Overstreet, Matthew A. Douglas

Faculty Publications

Purpose: The United States Air Force often provides effective airlift for cargo distribution, but is at times inefficient. This paper aims to address the under-utilization of military airlift cargo compartments that plagues the airlift system.
Design/methodology/approach: The authors examine seven techniques designed to increase cargo compartment utilization and increase airlift utilization rates. The techniques were applied through load planning software to 30 real-world movements consisting of 159 sorties. They then ran each post-technique movement through a modeled flight environment to obtain cycle movement data. The metrics gained from both the load planning software and the modeled environment were regressed to …

Forecasting Us Army Enlistment Contract Production In Complex Geographical Marketing Areas, Joshua L. Mcdonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill, Christian Pardo

Faculty Publications

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate an improved method for forecasting the US Army recruiting. Design/methodology/approach: Time series methods, regression modeling, principle components and marketing research are included in this paper. Findings: This paper found the unique ability of multiple statistical methods applied to a forecasting context to consider the effects of inputs that are controlled to some degree by a decision maker. Research limitations/implications: This work will successfully inform the US Army recruiting leadership on how this improved methodology will improve their recruitment process.
Practical implications: Improved US Army analytical technique for forecasting recruiting goals.

Improving Resource Management In The Afghan Air Force, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Tamiko L. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The nascent Afghan Air Force (AAF) is rapidly changing with new platforms programmed and existing platforms expanding. As US and coalition forces draw down, the transition of financial responsibility from American to Afghan processes is on the horizon.