Business Commons^™

Sortie-Based Aircraft Component Demand Rate To Predict Requirements, Thomas R. O'Neal

Theses and Dissertations

Weapon System Sustainment (WSS) costs are growing at an increasing rate despite the vast efforts to reduce them. Researchers have attributed much of the cost increase to inaccurate demand forecasts for weapon system spare parts. In 2011, the forecast to sustain all United States Air Force (USAF) aircraft was 19% accurate and WSS costs per year have continuously increased. The purpose of this study is to explore a parsimonious change to aircraft component forecasting to reduce costly forecast error. This study substitutes flying hours with sorties for the purpose of demand forecasting. Many F-16 and B-52 spare parts are evaluated …

Resilient Aircraft Sustainment: Quantifying Resilience Through Asset And Capacity Allocation, Zachary B. Shannon

Theses and Dissertations

Decision makers lack a clear, generalizable method to quantify how additional investment in inventory and capacity equates to additional levels of resilience. This research facilitates a deeper understanding of the intricacies and complex interconnectedness of organizational supply chains by monetarily quantifying changes in network resilience. The developed Area under the Curve metric (AUC) is used to quantify the level of demand that each asset allocation can meet during a disruptive event. Due to its applicability across multiple domains, the USAF F-16 repair network in the Pacific theater (PACAF) is modeled utilizing discrete event simulation and used as the illustrating example. …

Applying Data Organizational Techniques To Enhance Air Force Learning, Jacob A. Orner

Theses and Dissertations

The USAF and the DoD use traditional schoolhouses to educate and train personnel. The physical aspects of these schoolhouses limit throughput. A method to increase throughput is to shift towards an asynchronous learning environment where students move through content at individually. This research introduces a methodology for transforming a set of unstructured documents into an organized TM students can use to orient themselves in a domain. The research identifies learning paths within the TM to create a directed KSAT. We apply this methodology in four case studies, each an education or training course. Using a graph comparison metric and the …

Forecasting Attrition By Afsc For The United States Air Force, Trey S. Pujats

Theses and Dissertations

Retention and personnel management is a challenge for every organization, particularly the military due to its hierarchical structure and barriers to entry. Talent must be developed and retained to become leaders, beginning at the lowest level in the Air Force. The Air Force faces a retention problem unlike most organizations that requires a unique perspective and tailored solution to each Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC). There exists previous efforts to predict attrition rates in the Air Force based on economic factors. This study expands upon the economic factors and tailors the predictor variables of attrition based on the AFSC. The …

Determinants Of Small Business Innovation Research Performance, Ethan E. Blake

Theses and Dissertations

This analysis shows that the Air Force SBIR Program has seen a high rate of failure (over 91%) in Phase II efforts that have completed funding within the last three Fiscal Years. The Joint Capability Area assignment process and subsequent analysis identified several high and low performing groups. Force Integration, Battlespace Awareness, and Protection JCAs were top performers while Command/Control, Logistics, and Force Application were low performers. Additional analysis showed that small businesses have more than double the commercialization rate of large businesses. The commercialization rates for businesses with 150 employees or fewer is 9% while the rate for businesses …

The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato

Theses and Dissertations

The relationship between expenditures and readiness level is a topic of interest to military senior leaders, defense resource planners, and the American taxpayer alike. Senior leaders within the Air Force (AF) justify increased defense budgets by pointing to the potential adverse effects that decreased funding could have on military readiness. Resource planners within the AF are then tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that budgets are allocated most effectively to maximize the AF's ability to project airpower across a variety of contingency operations. This thesis investigates the relationship between budgets and readiness by examining the relationship between depot level funding …

Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the total life-cycle cost of using utility-scale battery systems to increase the energy efficiency of forward operating bases, thereby reducing the burden of diesel fuel logistics. Specifically, this thesis answered three research questions addressing optimal sizing for various battery types connected with photovoltaic grids, logistical parameters directly impacting total cost, and the cost of increasing the energy resilience of the network. The research questions were answered through a review of literature, modeling, and data analysis. The model determines an optimal size and area for a Vanadium redox flow, Lithium-ion, or Lead-acid battery …

A Comparison Of Sbir Investment Methods: Afwerx Vs Legacy, Evan A. Gist

Theses and Dissertations

The AFWERX Open Topic (AOT) program uses funding from the United States Air Force’s (USAF) Small Business Innovation and Research (SBIR) budget to adapt commercial technology to USAF needs. The AOT approach to small business investment is markedly different from that of legacy SBIR investment methods. This research is a comparison of processes and outcomes for AOT and legacy SBIR. The first axis of comparison is on commercialization rates. Applying a legacy definition of commercialization on a sample of AOT contracts, we found AOT’s commercialization to be 37% (compared to an 8.8% for legacy SBIR). We caveat this finding by …

Three Views For Explaining And Resolving The Recruitment And Retention Challenges Of The Explosive Ordnance Disposal (Eod) Career Field, John A. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

Retention among the Air Force Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) career field has been a concern since the start of the war on terror. Now, as recruiting quotas are not being met, that concern is growing for senior leaders. In the coming years, retention and recruitment will be of the utmost importance to ensure full mission capability. This research analyzes two streams of data, 15 years of manpower information and the results of a survey administered to first-term Airmen, to identify the variables that have the greatest impact on turnover. An additional dataset, personnel data from more than 2,000 EOD candidates, …

The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic

Theses and Dissertations

The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making – from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to …

The Impact Of Changing The Size Of Aircraft Radar Displays On Visual Search In The Cockpit, Justin R. Marsh

Theses and Dissertations

Advances in sensor technology have enabled our fighter aircraft to find, fix, track, target, engage (F2T2E) at greater distances, providing the operator with more data within the battlefield. Modern aircraft are designed with larger displays while our legacy aircraft are being retrofitted with larger cockpit displays to enable display of the increased data. While this modification has been shown to enable improvements in human performance of many cockpit tasks, this effect is often not measured nor fully understood at a more generalizable level. This research outlines an approach to comparing human performance across two display sizes in future F-16 cockpits. …

An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This research compares the efficacy of subject matter expert (SME) elicitation methods to other cost estimation methods using a development and production dataset provided by AFLCMC/FZC. First, by using descriptive statistics to evaluate low versus high amount of the respective cost estimation methods by analyzing the means of percent cost growth for both groups. Next, this research involved using a statistics-based approach to investigate whether SME based cost estimating methods have an associated relationship to percent change of Program Acquisition Unit Costs (PAUC), which will be our proxy variable to cost growth. Using a pooled cross-sectional OLS regression analysis model …

Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves a study of Air Force science and technology (S&T) programs which includes the creation of standard factors and a program analysis. There has been little prior cost research on S&T programs, which occur very early in the acquisition lifecycle. This leads the cost analyst to utilize estimating techniques such as analogy, factors, and parametric in order to develop budgets with minimal information. The absence of formal S&T cost reporting requirements and common cost elements necessitate a segregated two phased data analysis. The Factor Development phase accomplishes the development and creation of two new standard cost factors along …

Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford

Theses and Dissertations

Subjective uncertainty exists within the realm of cost estimation. Typical methodology for subjective uncertainty involves elicitation from a subject matter expert to provide a high, low, and most likely value -- defining a triangular distribution -- to model said uncertainty. This manuscript explores ways to leverage research on elicitation geared towards defining a triangular distribution and provide a simple conversion to a beta distribution usable by cost analysts with various degrees of mathematical knowledge. Furthermore, this manuscript attempts to demonstrate the benefits of using a beta distribution through its application as a conjugate prior for Bayesian updating in cost models.

Recognizing Potential Cyberspace Warriors Through The Use Of Suspicion Propensity Index, Meghan G. Strang

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force currently suffers from excessively high attrition rates in the cyberspace career. The field is currently aiming to develop an entrance examination for the career, striving to improve personnel selection and decrease these high attrition rates. The attribute of suspicion is a key focus of the preliminary examination development, theorizing that it is a potential indicator present among competent cyber operators. This research makes use of the Suspicion Propensity Index (SPI), a reliable measure of one’s tendency to be suspicious, along with the highly cited Mayer’s trust questionnaire in order to compare the attributes that appear in successful …

Inherent Jeopardy Of Performance Based Contracting Metrics: A Simulation Experiment, Daniel Cherobini

Theses and Dissertations

There is a growing trend across the world to adopt Performance Based Contracting strategies to support logistics systems. Using these policies, contract payments are strongly related to the performance achieved compared to prespecified metrics. However, managers are not always confident on what are the most suitable performance goals to use in these agreements. As a consequence, contractors struggle to deliver the desired performance results, while aircraft fleets experience an increase in support costs. And when the results are inadequate, leaders are tempted to impose even more performance targets to contractors, willing to exercise more control over the support organization. In …

Behavioral Antecedents Of Fuel Efficiency, James A. Cotton

Theses and Dissertations

The US Department of Defense is the largest institutional petroleum consumer in the world. In addition to the financial cost of petroleum-based fuels, the US DoD generates more CO₂-equivalent greenhouse gases than the entirety of modern, industrialized nations like Sweden and Norway. Other dangers and externalities arise from the fuels supply chain, like toxin risks to fuel handlers, and human costs to transport fuel in-theater. Within the DoD, the USAF alone often rivals or exceeds the consumption of all other services combined. While the USAF prefers technical, hardware-based solutions to problems, and has given increasing attention to logistical …

Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards

Theses and Dissertations

Cost estimators commonly use the analogy and factor method when developing Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) estimates. Previous studies discussing and developing factors for the production lifecycle phase have been limited in scope and statistical analysis efforts. This research significantly expands the currently available toolkit for Department of Defense cost analysts by updating the current database of historical data and exploring potential relationships through statistical testing. Specifically, 3,462 unique factors were created across nine level II Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements broken down into four categories; commodity type, contract type, contractor type, and service. The production cost factors were created …

Preliminary Study Of Communication Network Characterization Towards Improved Organizational Behavior, Taylor F. Flaxington

Theses and Dissertations

Nearly one third of the Air Force acquisition system’s large programs are over cost and half are over budget; performance must improve. This research applies a systems perspective to this challenge and frames the acquisition system as a complex system of systems. It is a system composed of people in multiple organizations; organizations interacting with one another to develop, acquire and sustain weapon programs. The system’s performance is an emergent behavior of its components (people), structure and processes. Communication networks are a view of a system’s structure, revealing the flows and interactions between components (people) as the system accomplishes its …

Undergraduate Pilot Training Attrition: An Analysis Of Individual And Class Composition Component Factors, Christina M. Akers

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force is working hard to reduce the shortage of nearly 2,000 pilots that threatens the Air Force’s core mission. Officials have focused on increasing retention and training throughput. Despite this, the first Pilot Training Next class graduated in August of 2018 with 13 of the initial 20 students (65.5% graduation rate). The purpose of this research is to explore attrition reduction by understanding how class composition of individual abilities and personalities affects the class graduation rate. Using AFOQT scores, SDI+ scores, PCSM scores, flight hours, and college GPAs, correlations were studied and a simple linear regression was run …

Research In Defense Logistics: Where Are We And Where Are We Going?, George A. Zsidisin, Amanda Bresler, Benjamin T. Hazen, Keith F. Schneider, Taylor H. Wilkerson

Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to provide insight on high-interest areas of research in defense-related logistics and supply chain management and opportunities for advancing theory and practice in this domain.

A Scenario-Based Parametric Analysis Of The Army Personnel-To-Assignment Matching Problem, Matthew D. Ferguson, Raymond R. Hill, Brian J. Lunday

Faculty Publications

This study aims to compare linear programming and stable marriage approaches to the personnel assignment problem under conditions of uncertainty. Robust solutions should exhibit reduced variability of solutions in the presence of one or more additional constraints or problem perturbations added to some baseline problems.
Several variations of each approach are compared with respect to solution speed, solution quality as measured by officer-to-assignment preferences and solution robustness as measured by the number of assignment changes required after inducing a set of representative perturbations or constraints to an assignment instance. These side constraints represent the realistic assignment categorical priorities and limitations …

Order Fulfillment Errors And Military Aircraft Readiness, Michael Weber, Daniel Steeneck, William Cunningham

Faculty Publications

This paper aims to measure the effect of supply discrepancy reports (SDRs) on military aircraft readiness metrics, including aircraft availability, not mission capable supply (NMCS) hours, cannibalizations and mission-impaired capability awaiting parts (MICAP) hours.

Monthly SDR, NMCS, aircraft cannibalizations and MICAP data from 2009 to 2018 are analyzed using linear regression and independent samples t-tests to examine whether discrepant shipments negatively impact aircraft readiness.

Air Force Space Programs: Comparing Estimates To Final Development Budgets, Christopher Elworth, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Gregory E. Brown

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes how development budget estimates, as reported in the Selected Acquisition Reports, change over time for primarily Air Force space programs. Government acquisition policy emphasizes the importance of developing an accurate point estimate for programs to ensure program budget efficiency; however, statistics imply space programs tend to underspend at the beginning of the program and to overspend at the end of Initial Operational Capability. This suggests new phasing methods that reflect the unique needs of space and perhaps other developmental-type programs by allocating more of the budget in later years rather than at the beginning of the program, …

A Study Of Onboarding And Turnover Mediating Variables In U.S. Air Force Officers, Brett S. Bowers

Theses and Dissertations

Employee retention, while always a concern in the workplace, has become a greater challenge for organizations in recent years. Today’s working class has displayed a propensity to change jobs more rapidly than previous generations, exacerbating not only turnover rates but also the costs associated with them (Frankel, 2016). This challenge is especially relevant to the United States Air Force, which has experienced difficulty retaining young officers in recent years. The problems resulting from this voluntary turnover are exceedingly impactful to the military command structure, as senior leaders must work their way up from the lowest ranks. As such, the Air …

Trust And Suspicion As A Function Of Cyber Security In Human Machine Team (Hmt) Of Unmanned Systems, Dhaher M. Alshammari

Theses and Dissertations

The research focuses on cyber-attacks on cyber-physical systems of the unmanned vehicles that are characteristically used in the military, particularly the Air Force. Unmanned systems are exposed to various risks as the capacity of cyber attackers continue to expand, raising the need for speedy and immediate responses. The advances in military technologies form the basis of the research that explores the challenges faced in the timely detection and response to cyber-attacks. The purpose of the research is to study the connections between operator suspicion and the detection and response to cyber-attacks alongside the identification of theory of suspicion as the …

Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith

Theses and Dissertations

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the …

Multi-Study Analysis Of Learning Culture, Human Capital And Operational Performance In Supply Chain Management: The Moderating Role Of Workforce Level, Robert E. Overstreet, Joseph B. Skipper, Joseph R. Huscroft Jr., Matt J. Cherry, Andrew L. Cooper

Faculty Publications

Purpose — The purpose of this study is to empirically evaluate the relationship between learning culture, workforce level, human capital and operational performance in two diverse supply chain populations, aircraft maintenance and logistics readiness. Design/methodology/approach — Drawing upon competence-based view of the firm and human capital theory, this paper analyzes data from two studies. Findings — The results provide support for the hypothesized model. Workforce level moderates the relationship between learning culture and human capital, and human capital partially mediates the relationship between learning culture and operational performance. Research limitations/implications — The findings have implications for behavioral supply chain management …

Strategic Location And Dispatch Management Of Assets In A Military Medical Evacuation Enterprise, Phillip R. Jenkins

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation considers the importance of optimizing deployed military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) systems and utilizes operations research techniques to develop models that allow military medical planners to analyze different strategies regarding the management of MEDEVAC assets in a deployed environment. For optimization models relating to selected subproblems of the MEDEVAC enterprise, the work herein leverages integer programming, multi-objective optimization, Markov decision processes, approximate dynamic programming, and machine learning, as appropriate, to identify relevant insights for aerial MEDEVAC operations.

From Trash To Treasure: The Impact Of Consumer Perception Of Bio-Waste Products In Closed-Loop Supply Chains, Ivan Russo, Ilenia Confente, Daniele Scarpi, Benjamin T. Hazen

Faculty Publications

Increasing efforts are made to convert waste into new materials for replacing “traditional” ones. In particular urban bio-waste represents a primary source of concern for both government and society. A new type of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) have been very recently developed to convert food waste into a biodegradable multifunctional raw material to help solving the plastic waste problem. However, little is known about consumers' reactions to products made from PHA. Hence this study aims at understanding consumers' intentions to purchase, pay for, and switch to those bio-based products. Both multivariate analyses of variance and mediation analyses are run, addressing product involvement, …