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Optimization Of A Model To Predict Salinity Intrusion In San Francisco Bay Estuary Using A Genetic Algorithm, T. Rajkumar, David E. Thompson Jul 2002

Optimization Of A Model To Predict Salinity Intrusion In San Francisco Bay Estuary Using A Genetic Algorithm, T. Rajkumar, David E. Thompson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Salinity intrusion is a significant issue in the San Francisco Bay Delta because this estuarycontributes substantially to fresh water supply for much of northern California. Traditionally, salinity alongthe estuary has been measured using monitoring instruments installed at various locations within theSacramento-San Joaquin River Delta system, and these measurements are used to predict future conditionsand evaluate the water management alternatives. The California Department of Water Resources DeltaSimulation Model (DWRDSM) is used for this type of analysis. DWRDSM is an unsteady one-dimensionalhydrodynamic and salt transport model. It can provide estimates of salinity at almost any location within theBay-Delta system. However, like many …

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Agland Decision Tool: A Multicriteria Decision Support System For Agricultural Property, J. Parsons Jul 2002

Agland Decision Tool: A Multicriteria Decision Support System For Agricultural Property, J. Parsons

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

From sustainability to productivity, agricultural land use issues involve complex multiobjective decision making problems. The Agland Decision Tool is an Excel based decision support system designed to help agricultural property managers make informed production decisions. Using the Agland Decision Tool, managers can build and compare up to five different production alternatives on the basis of: landlord returns, tenant returns, weather reduction risks, flexibility, capital outlay, labor requirements, and erosion control and sustainability. The alternatives are ranked using the multi-criteria decision making methods: PROMETHEE and weighted average. The ability to compare results using two different ranking methods provides the decision maker …

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The Mormon Question: Polygamy And Constitutional Conflict In Nineteenth-Century America Sarah Barringer Gordon, Nathan B. Oman Jul 2002

The Mormon Question: Polygamy And Constitutional Conflict In Nineteenth-Century America Sarah Barringer Gordon, Nathan B. Oman

BYU Studies

Sarah Barringer Gordon. The Mormon Question: Polygamy and Constitutional Conflict in Nineteenth-Century America. Chapel Hill, North Carolina: University of North Carolina Press, 2002.

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Front Matter, Byu Studies Jul 2002

Front Matter, Byu Studies

BYU Studies

No abstract provided.

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A Decision Support Gis For The Clean Water Act Permit Review Analysis, Wei (Wayne) Ji, Rima A. Wahab, Jia (Jane) Ma Jul 2002

A Decision Support Gis For The Clean Water Act Permit Review Analysis, Wei (Wayne) Ji, Rima A. Wahab, Jia (Jane) Ma

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Section 404 of the Clean Water Act is the primary federal statute of the United States that regulates the discharge of dredged or fill materials into lakes, rivers, and wetlands. The Section 404 permit review process involves comprehensive assessments of physical, biological, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts of potential human alterations on aquatic ecosystems across spatial scales. Such assessments require the integration of management decision-making with innovative data handling techniques and assessment methodology. The Section 404-permit process is often hindered by the lack of well-developed scientific information and the technical tools for efficient data analysis. The individual permit review frequently becomes …

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Modelling The Impact Of Water Reuse Strategies On Hydrologic Flows In The Blackwater And Chelmer Catchments, Uk., P. Jeffrey, T. Oxley Jul 2002

Modelling The Impact Of Water Reuse Strategies On Hydrologic Flows In The Blackwater And Chelmer Catchments, Uk., P. Jeffrey, T. Oxley

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Wastewater reclamation and reuse at various scales is an important resource management toolin many regions of Europe and is coming under increasing scrutiny in the UK. However, the impact of reusestrategies on hydrologic flows, particularly during dry periods, is poorly understood and yet crucial to thedevelopment of sustainable resource management policies. In this paper we summarise the integrated modelsused for the simulation of such strategies (river flows, soil hydrology, aquifer dynamics and waterdistribution) and describe how water demand ‘profiles’ can be incorporated into a distribution matrix tosimulate recycling scenarios and demographic changes, and how both inter-catchment transfers and waterimportation schemes …

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Linearisation Of Highly Resolved Substance Transport Models By Temporal Aggregation Of Model Outputs, A. Forsman, A. Grimvall Jul 2002

Linearisation Of Highly Resolved Substance Transport Models By Temporal Aggregation Of Model Outputs, A. Forsman, A. Grimvall

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Process-oriented models that involve strongly non-linear responses and are driven by highlyresolved meteorological inputs are often used to predict substance transport over fairly long periods of time.Therefore, it is of great interest to ascertain whether the non-linear structure is also essential for predictingtemporally aggregated model outputs. Here, ordinary least squares regression was employed to identify linearrelationships between model outputs and inputs expressed on different temporal scales. Examination of twosimple theoretical models showed that aggregation of outputs and inputs improved the linearity of models,provided the models included memory effects. This was confirmed in the analysis of the soil-water andnitrogen transport model …

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Integrated Modelling For Nutrient Loading Of Polder Lakes, P.J.T.M. Van Puijenbroek, J. M. Knoop Jul 2002

Integrated Modelling For Nutrient Loading Of Polder Lakes, P.J.T.M. Van Puijenbroek, J. M. Knoop

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Many shallow lakes in the lower parts of the Netherlands are hypertrophic and dominated by algae blooms. The present ecological situation reflects the result of past and the present nutrient loading − a combination of point and diffuse loading from different sources. The difference in catchment and hydrology between lakes leads to a difference in nutrient loading and water residence time. Management options to reduce the trophic state have to be analysed. A model is presented that calculates the load of nutrients for 35 polder lakes in the Netherlands separated for different years and emission routes. Detailed hydrological information on …

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A Comparison Of Model Structures For The Simulation Of Amphipod (Talitrus Saltator) Population Dynamics., P. M. Anastácio, S. C. Gonçalves, M. A. Pardal, J. C. Marques Jul 2002

A Comparison Of Model Structures For The Simulation Of Amphipod (Talitrus Saltator) Population Dynamics., P. M. Anastácio, S. C. Gonçalves, M. A. Pardal, J. C. Marques

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A dynamic model is proposed in order to simulate sandhopper (Talitrus saltator) populationdynamics under various scenarios. It was built under the Stella simulation software and so far it has attainedthe calibration and verification stages. The basic structure of the model depends on the simulation of thenumber of animals in each age class (45 days). A von Bertalanffy growth curve has been adjusted to thetreated field data. From this equation another one expressing the instantaneous growth rate was extracted andused to calculate the growth. The number of individuals in each age class increases due to the ageing processi.e. new individuals coming …

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Desyre – Decision Support System For Rehabilitation Of Contaminated Sites: Objectives And Structure, A. Critto, S. Giove, N. Nadal, M. Samiolo, C. Carlon, S. Silvoni, S. Foramiti, Antonio Marcomini Jul 2002

Desyre – Decision Support System For Rehabilitation Of Contaminated Sites: Objectives And Structure, A. Critto, S. Giove, N. Nadal, M. Samiolo, C. Carlon, S. Silvoni, S. Foramiti, Antonio Marcomini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The rehabilitation of contaminated sites is a complex process encompassing technological, environmental, socio-economic aspects. These aspects show close spatial and temporal inter-relations. Moreover, mega-sites (hundreds of hectares wide) require properly designed Decision Support Systems (DSS). In this work, a DEcision Support sYstem for the REqualification of contaminated sites (DESYRE) is proposed for the identification of the most effective rehabilitation interventions. The DSS is based on a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework and integrates environmental and technological databases, risk assessment models, and multi criteria procedures. It is composed of five modules: (1) characterisation, (2) risk, (3) socio-economical and (4) technological analysis, …

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Participatory Natural Resource Management: A Comparison Of Four Case Studies, M. Hare, R. A. Letcher, A. J. Jakeman Jul 2002

Participatory Natural Resource Management: A Comparison Of Four Case Studies, M. Hare, R. A. Letcher, A. J. Jakeman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents an overview of four recent participatory resource management projects carried outon three continents. The aim is to elicit from these case studies a description of participatory process structures aswell as an analysis of the driving forces behind the selection of stakeholders and their involvement inmanagement projects. The case studies represent four different process structures set up to achieve two categoriesof process goal. They also suggest four main drivers in the design of such structures: process goals, existingpower structures, process direction and stakeholder numbers. The concept of scale of action mismatch isintroduced as directly affecting two out of …

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Environmental Foresight And Structural Change, M. B. Beck Jul 2002

Environmental Foresight And Structural Change, M. B. Beck

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said [Brooks, 1986], are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behavior of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. How indeed should we design our models to generate environmental foresight, to detect, in particular, threats to our environment lying “just beyond the horizon”? In facing this prospect of potentially profound dislocations in behavior, the problem is that the number of state variables in the model, whether they interact, how they interact, and the form of their interactions, may be evolving over time. What may …

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Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck Jul 2002

Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present a framework for computational analysis of reachable futures, centred on the analysisof uncertainty, in which stakeholder participation is integral to generating environmental foresight. In ourcase study, we examine the long-term ecological behaviour of Lake Lanier, Georgia, south-eastern USA. Weelicit stakeholders' fears and desires for the future state of the reservoir during a foresight workshop session,from which we encode long-term behaviour definitions (scenarios) for the analysis. A generalised ecologicalmodel provides the mechanism for propagating a set of uncertain input factors – namely, process parameters,initial conditions, and forcing functions – into the future. We employ three sampling-based methods foridentifying and …

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A Spatially Explicit Modelling Approach To Socioeconomic Development In South Africa, L. Erasmus, A. S. Van Jaarsveld, P. O. Bommel Jul 2002

A Spatially Explicit Modelling Approach To Socioeconomic Development In South Africa, L. Erasmus, A. S. Van Jaarsveld, P. O. Bommel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

South Africa finds itself at a development cross road: optimism for "high road" development is bisected by a wasteland of poverty and overpopulation. Intervention policies are largely "faith-based", even in the face of rising uncertainties surrounding population growth, HIV/Aids and resource availability. Added to this are the complexities of disparate spatial development and social scenarios, mass urbanization and immigration. In order to confront these threats, decision makers need analytical tools that can be used to explore potential intervention policies for their efficacy, desirability and inadvertent consequences in nontarget sectors. Such tools should adequately address uneven spatial development across environmental, economic …

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Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton Jul 2002

Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In January 2000, there was a record maximum rainfall throughout much of the watershed of the Swan River estuary, leading to the first reported Microcystis aeruginosa bloom in the estuary. Peak cell counts reached over 100,000 cells mL-1. A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological model, ELCOM-CAEDYM, is applied to the period of development and subsequent decline of the bloom. The model, previously calibrated for a more typical year (1995), accurately reproduced the unusual hydrodynamic circumstances and predicted the magnitude and timing of the Microcystis bloom. Salinity and temperature were the primary factors controlling the growth of Microcystis during the period of interest. …

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Modelling Contrasted Management Behaviours Of Stakeholders Facing A Pine Encroachment Process: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach, Michel Etienne, Christophe Le Page Jul 2002

Modelling Contrasted Management Behaviours Of Stakeholders Facing A Pine Encroachment Process: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach, Michel Etienne, Christophe Le Page

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In Southern France, the Causse Méjan is a natural ecosystem of high biological diversity. Sheep farmers, foresters, and a National Park are interacting in this land subject to pine encroachment by Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra at different temporal and spatial scales. The stakeholders are concerned by this global biological process although it affects their management goals (sheep production, timber production, nature conservation) in very different ways. An agent-based model has been built with the Cormas platform. Vegetation changes in terms of structure, composition and productivity were simulated by a cellular automata that was initialised as a spatial grid of …

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Local Short-Term Prediction Of Wind Speed: A Neural Network Analysis, C. Pérez-Llera, M. C. Fernández-Baizán, J. L. Feito, V. González Del Valle Jul 2002

Local Short-Term Prediction Of Wind Speed: A Neural Network Analysis, C. Pérez-Llera, M. C. Fernández-Baizán, J. L. Feito, V. González Del Valle

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Predicting short-term wind speed is essential in order to model a system of prevention of environmental contamination produced by the effects of strong winds acting on goods (mainly crushed coal) discharged at a dock. The wind speed in a near future depends on the values of other meteorological variables in previous times. The values are obtained from a meteorological station with several sensors: wind speed, temperature, humidity, pressure ... We have used the SNNS simulator to obtain a neural network able to predict the wind speed 20 min. in advance, with the minimum possible error. The network inputs are basically …

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Linking Research, Policy And Practice For Managing Dynamic Water Resources In A Protected Area, U. Somorowska Jul 2002

Linking Research, Policy And Practice For Managing Dynamic Water Resources In A Protected Area, U. Somorowska

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Restoration of wetlands involves the necessity of maintaining the high moisture content of thesites involved. Managing adequate hydrological conditions means supporting successful habitat restoration ofwetland ecosystems. Before the management practices are implemented, the formulation of objectives in thedevelopment of restoration policies is required. It should be based on an understanding of the primarynatural controls of the water regimes. This research focuses on practical approaches to the management ofdynamic water resources in the protected area of the Kampinos National Park in Poland. The area has thestatus of UNESCO MAB Biosphere Reserve. Valuable wetland ecosystems are present in the area. They hadbeen …

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Parallel Processing For A Better Understanding Of Equifinality In Hydrological Models, A. Hreiche, D. Mezher, C. Bocquillona, A. Dezetter, E. Servat, W. Najem Jul 2002

Parallel Processing For A Better Understanding Of Equifinality In Hydrological Models, A. Hreiche, D. Mezher, C. Bocquillona, A. Dezetter, E. Servat, W. Najem

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The aim of conceptual modeling of watersheds is to realize a numeric scheme for determining rainfallrunoff at the outlet of a basin. This modeling consists of a number of parameters that are identified by calibration methods using a series of measured rainfall-runoff data. One of the difficulties of this method is due to equifinality problems. The definition of the parameters, and their relation with the data, extends the space of acceptable parameters (zone of equivalence), which in turn makes the combination of acceptable parameters very large. In addition, the calibration methods currently used simplify the parameter hyper-space and yield equally …

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An Application Of Queuing Theory To Waterfowl Migration, Richard S. Sojda, John E. Cornely, Leigh H. Fredrickson Jul 2002

An Application Of Queuing Theory To Waterfowl Migration, Richard S. Sojda, John E. Cornely, Leigh H. Fredrickson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There has always been great interest in the migration of waterfowl and other birds. We have applied queuing theory to modelling waterfowl migration, beginning with a prototype system for the Rocky Mountain Population of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) in Western North America. The queuing model can be classified as a D/BB/28 system, and we describe the input sources, service mechanism, and network configuration of queues and servers. The intrinsic nature of queuing theory is to represent the spatial and temporal characteristics of entities and how they move, are placed in queues, and are serviced. The service mechanism in our system …

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Methodological And Software Tools For Public Local Transport Planning In The Lombardy Region, S. Arcari, Eliot Laniado, P. Tagliavini Jul 2002

Methodological And Software Tools For Public Local Transport Planning In The Lombardy Region, S. Arcari, Eliot Laniado, P. Tagliavini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In line with EU regulations, the Italian Government has started the reform of public transport, transferring competencies from central Government to Regions for railway networks and from Regions to Local Administrations for bus services. The Local Administrations are therefore called to redesign the bus urban and inter-urban services. The targets are not only to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of public transportation, but also to improve all the quality issues related to mobility and to promote the environmental sustainability. This paper is focused on the methodological and software tools developed by Poliedra – Politecnico di Milano to support the Lombardy …

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Graphic Model-Based Software For Supporting The Search For Efficient Environmental Strategies: Method, Real-Life Applications And Future Developments, Alexander V. Lotov Jul 2002

Graphic Model-Based Software For Supporting The Search For Efficient Environmental Strategies: Method, Real-Life Applications And Future Developments, Alexander V. Lotov

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Application of a new graphic multi-criterion model-based approach to integrated assessment and screening of environmental strategies is described. The approach is based on integration of mathematical models and visualization of the Pareto-efficient (non-dominated) frontier. In the case of linear integrated models, the visualization is based on application of the Interactive Decision Maps (IDM) technique that visualizes the frontier in the form of multiple animated decision maps provided on-line. Interactive visualization of the Pareto-efficient frontier helps the user to understand potentialities of choice and criterion tradeoffs for 3 to 7 criteria. Moreover, the IDM technique supports identification of a preferred non-dominated …

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Participatory Decision Making In Reservoir Planning, R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Castelletti, E. Weber Jul 2002

Participatory Decision Making In Reservoir Planning, R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Castelletti, E. Weber

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The technologies and methods for integrated planning and management of water resource systemshave matured considerably over the past decades. However, relatively few of them have been actually and regularlyapplied in real world decisional processes. We feel this is essentially due to a general lack of engagementof stakeholders and decision makers at every stage of the decisional process. Innovative methodologies andtools to improve participation are presented, with focus on water reservoir systems

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Estimating Tradeable Certificates Created By Small-Scale Renewable Energy Systems, Trevor Pryor, Clinton Watkins, Heath Lang Jul 2002

Estimating Tradeable Certificates Created By Small-Scale Renewable Energy Systems, Trevor Pryor, Clinton Watkins, Heath Lang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Recent industry development programs in several countries have involved the use of tradeable certificate schemes as means for electricity generators and retailers to fulfil mandatory requirements for renewable energy generation. Renewable energy generation will potentially also yield carbon offsets under domestic emissions constraints involving emissions trading schemes. This paper develops a novel framework for estimating the amount of renewable energy certificates and carbon emissions offsets that may be created by a wide range of small scale renewable energy systems. A methodology is developed that requires information on only two parameters of the generating system, namely the specific fuel consumptions of …

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The Economic Consequences Of Voluntary Environmental Information Disclosure, Nike O. Gozali, Janice C. Y. How, Peter Verhoeven Jul 2002

The Economic Consequences Of Voluntary Environmental Information Disclosure, Nike O. Gozali, Janice C. Y. How, Peter Verhoeven

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A significant body of accounting and finance literature has witnessed an increase in the demandfor company’s environmental information over the past few decades. Using data of Australian companiesfrom 1998 to 2000, this study provides an analysis of environmental disclosure in companies’ annual reports.The evidence indicates that companies do respond to the increased demand for environmental disclosure byproviding more environmental-related information in their annual report. Although the requirement todisclose environmental information in annual reports has not kept pace with the legislative reform, there hasbeen a significant increase of these disclosures from 1998 to 2000. We also find that most of the …

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How Bad Isn't The Agent-Based Model Catchscape?, N. Becu, P. Perez, Olivier Barreteau, A. Walker Jul 2002

How Bad Isn't The Agent-Based Model Catchscape?, N. Becu, P. Perez, Olivier Barreteau, A. Walker

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Due to mounting human pressure, stakeholders in northern Thailand are facing crucial natural resource management issues. The impact of upstream irrigation management on the downstream agricultural viability is a common source of conflict. It has often both biophysical and social origins. CATCHSCAPE has been developed as an Agent-Based model that enables us to describe the whole catchment: hydrology, farmers’ behaviour and water management rules. It is meant to simulate scenarios based on assumptions about value of these features as well as some assumptions about context, such as levels of prices for various commodities or climate. The biophysical modules are made …

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Global And Annex I Emissions Corridors For The 21st Century, E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner Jul 2002

Global And Annex I Emissions Corridors For The 21st Century, E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We analyze global and Annex I emissions corridors for the 21st century. Emissions corridors represent the range of admissible emissions futures which observe some predefined constraints. They are calculated on the conceptual and methodological basis of the tolerable windows approach. We assess the sensitivity of the corridors to limits on the non-intolerable magnitude of climate change, the acceptable rate of emissions reductions and the feasible transition pace towards a decarbonizing economy. In addition we consider the influence of climate sensitivity on the corridors. While we calculate the global emissions corridors for the idealized assumption of a single global emitter, the …

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Integrating Structural Changes In Future Research And Modelling On The Seine River Basin, H. Kieken Jul 2002

Integrating Structural Changes In Future Research And Modelling On The Seine River Basin, H. Kieken

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For years policy makers and researchers involved in the management of the Seine river basin haveshared a common representation of the system's structure and behaviour: Paris, in the centre, divides thewatershed into two very unequal parts, a "clean" upstream and the downstream where environmentalproblems occur due to Paris sewage. This representation resulted in both (1) a focus of the attention and theefforts of policy makers on the downstream area and (2) the structuring of scientific research on the SeineRiver in a very dissymmetric way, including the features of the models developed within the 12-year old andstill ongoing research programme dedicated …

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Investigating Uncertainty And Sensitivity In Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools For 3mra, J. E. Babendreier, Karl J. Castleton Jul 2002

Investigating Uncertainty And Sensitivity In Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools For 3mra, J. E. Babendreier, Karl J. Castleton

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRA …

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The Costs And Benefits Of Pre-Action Before Kyoto Compliance, Haoran Pan, Denise Van Regemorter Jul 2002

The Costs And Benefits Of Pre-Action Before Kyoto Compliance, Haoran Pan, Denise Van Regemorter

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Transaction costs have negative effects on emissions trading. Recent debates on Kyoto Protocol have become aware of the potential threat of transaction costs to the implementation of emissions trading for the Protocol and consequently to the successful compliance of the Protocol. One way to suppress transaction costs is to use experience. In line with the EU Green Paper, we propose that a pre-action before the Kyoto period could be helpful to reduce the transaction costs in emissions trading for the Kyoto compliance. However, because pre-action will incur additional costs, the final gain due to pre-action will be the pre-action cost …

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