Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

An Approximate Dynamic Programming Mode For Optimal Medevac Dispatching, Aaron J. Rettke

Theses and Dissertations

We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model to examine military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) dispatch policies. To solve our MDP, we apply an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) technique. The problem of deciding which aeromedical asset to dispatch to which service request is complicated by the service locations and the priority class of each casualty event. We assume requests for MEDEVAC arrive sequentially, with the location and the priority of each casualty known upon initiation of the request. The proposed model finds a high quality dispatching policy which outperforms the traditional myopic policy of sending the nearest available unit. Utility is …

The Brazilian Air Force Uniform Distribution Process: Using Lean Thinking, Statistical Process Control And Theory Of Constraints To Address Improvement Opportunities, Luciano A. Dos Santos

Theses and Dissertations

In the Brazilian Air Force, all enlisted Soldiers and Corporals (corresponding to USAF ranks from Airman Basic to Senior Airman) are entitled to receive their uniforms from their assigned, respective organizations, free of charge. An important portion of the uniform s distribution process is accomplished by the Brazilian Air Force Intendancy Central Depot (ICD). This organization carries the uniform inventory and performs the selection and distribution activities, following the guidance of the Sub-directorate of Supply. ICD process performance data for the peak distribution seasons of 2012 and 2013 was collected and analyzed. Several indications of inefficiencies became apparent, exemplified by …

Value Focused Thinking Applications To Supervised Pattern Classification With Extensions To Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection Algorithms, David S. Scanland

Theses and Dissertations

Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) is an emerging analytical tool with flexible applications in different target detection and classification environments, including Military Intelligence, environmental conservation, etc. Algorithms are being developed at a rapid rate, solving various related detection problems under certain assumptions. At the core of these algorithms is the concept of supervised pattern classification, which trains an algorithm to data with enough generalizability that it can be applied to multiple instances of data. It is necessary to develop a logical methodology that can weigh responses and provide an output value that can help determine an optimum algorithm. This research focuses on …

Non-Rated Air Force Line Officer Attrition Rates Using Survival Analysis, Jill A. Schofield

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force structures its workforce around rank structure and work specialty codes (Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs)). The challenge is to grow and manage personnel to fill a variety of skill sets at a variety of ranks over a 20-30 year planning horizon. To ensure that the missions are accomplished while adhering to congressionally-mandated force allocations, the Air Force is continually attempting to \right size its force by maintaining the correct balance of personnel in each career field. The Air Force conducts its force structure management responsibility by comparing historical attrition rates to current manpower requirements for each AFSC …

Active Duty C-17 Aircraft Commander Fuel Efficiency Metrics And Goal Evaluation, Michael J. Schumacher

Theses and Dissertations

As the largest consumer of fuel in the Department of Defense, the Air Force continually looks for new ways to advocate aircraft fuel efficiency. Optimal metrics and goals are essential components to encourage efficient flying. This research examined two metrics through quantitative statistical and qualitative criteria analysis, picked the most effective metric, and utilized Goal Setting Theory (GST) to couple the metric with an attainable goal aimed at making Aircraft Commander's (AC's) more fuel efficient. The first metric, M1Cargo Adjusted, uses current sortie planning factors and adjusts these for payload. The second metric, M2Regression, uses regression analysis based on flight …

Statistical Observations Of Positioning, Navigation, And Timing In A Combat Simulation, Matthew G. Thomas

Theses and Dissertations

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has become an important asset in the lives of civilians and defense organizations. GPS uses include positioning, navigation, timing, as well as many other daily applications. With such dependence, protection against attacks on the system is paramount to continue its effectiveness. Attacks on its signal is the easiest way for enemies to degrade and harm not only everyday functioning for civilians, but a nation's defense as well. Jamming interference and spoofing are the two most frequent attacks on GPS signals. Could these two attacks cause significant effect on military operations? We use a System Effectiveness …

Functionality, Complexity, And Approaches To Assessment Of Resilience Under Constrained Energy And Information, Jason B. Clark

Theses and Dissertations

While system functions, functionality, and complexity are widely used concepts in systems engineering, there is significant diversity in their definitions and no unified approach to measurement. This research establishes a method for measuring impacts to functionality in dynamic engineered systems based on changes in kinetic energy. This metric is applied at particular levels of abstraction and system scales, consistent with the established multiscale nature of systems. By measuring system behavior in context with expected scenarios, it is possible to estimate expected functionality or set bounds on a system's maximum functionality. Functionality and system effectiveness is heavily influenced by the amount …

Using Earned Value Data To Forecast The Duration Of Department Of Defense (Dod) Space Acquisition Programs, Shedrick M. Bridgeforth

Theses and Dissertations

The accuracy of cost estimates is vital during this era of budget constraints. A key component of this accuracy is regularly updating the cost estimate at completion (EAC). A 2014 study by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) improved the accuracy of the cost estimate at completion (EAC) for space system contracts. The study found schedule duration to be a cost driver, but assumed the underlying duration estimate was accurate. This research attempts to improve the accuracy of the duration estimate from the AFCAA study; accuracy is evaluated with the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The methods researched here …

Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis Of A Decoy State Enabled Quantum Key Distribution System, Ryan D. Engle

Theses and Dissertations

Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) is an emerging technology which uses the principles of quantum mechanics to provide unconditionally secure key distribution. QKD systems are unique in their ability to detect an eavesdropper's presence and are being marketed for applications where high levels of secrecy are required such as banking, government, and military environments. QKD systems are composed of electrical, optical, and electrooptical components. Their design requires expertise across multiple disciplines including computer science, computer engineering, electrical engineering, information theory, optical physics, and quantum physics. This multidisciplinary nature makes QKD an ideal candidate for study using Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) …

Parametric Estimation Of Load For Air Force Datacenters, Derek P. Molle

Theses and Dissertations

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has tasked Federal agencies to develop a Data Center Consolidation Plan. Effective planning requires a repeatable method to effectively and efficiently size Air Force Base-level data centers. Review of commercial literature on data center design found emphasis in power efficiency, thermal modeling and cooling, and network speed and availability. The topic of sizing data center processing capacity seems undeveloped. This thesis provides a better, pedigreed solution to the data center sizing problem. By analogy, Erlang's formulae for the probability of blocking and queuing should be applicable to cumulative CPU utilization in a data …

A Comparative Study Of Learning Curve Models In Defense Airframe Cost Estimating, Justin R. Moore

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research was to identify which learning curve model is most accurate when applied to Defense acquisition programs. Wright's original learning curve model is widely accepted and used within Defense acquisitions, but the 75+ year old model may be outdated. This study compares Wright's model against three alternative learning curve models using total lot costs for the F-15 C/D & E programs: the Stanford-B model, the DeJong learning formula, and the S-Curve model. However, the results of the study are inconclusive. Two of the three alternative models, the DeJong and S-Curve, rely on the use of an …

Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation

Theses and Dissertations

In the late 1990s, the Air Force eliminated over 200 KC-135 navigators, leaving 50 remaining for the aircraft's most complex Special Operations Air Refueling (SOAR) mission. As the Air Force unveils the KC-46 Pegasus, this mission will continue but without a position for the navigator. Instead, navigators will undergo divestment as the SOAR mission transfers to the KC-46. Current plans indicate navigators will not only remain as the KC-46 arrives, but inbound navigators will continue arriving until 2018. This thesis applies the Delphi method, a process eliciting analysis anonymously from a panel of experts, in order to examine the elements …

Army Information Technology Procurement: A Business Process Analysis, Alexander M. Vukcevic

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents a business process analysis of the Army's ICT procurement system. The research identified several inefficiencies and proposes several potential solutions. the contributions of this research include a unified taxonomy, a method to prioritize requests, and system architecture products for development of an automated and sustainable collaboration interface for the CIO/G6 to streamline their IT acquisition process. Development of a centralized system would reduce waste in the request process from submission to formal accounting, hasten the movement of requests between stakeholders, maintain a digital signature authorization for each approval authority, provide a reporting database to recognize reprogramming thresholds, …

A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein

Theses and Dissertations

Nations transitioning into conflict is an issue of national interest. This study considers various data for inclusion in a statistical model that predicts the future state of the world where nations will either be in a state of violent conflict or not in violent conflict based on available historical data. Logistic regression is used to construct and test various models to produce a parsimonious world model with 15 variables. Further analysis shows that nations differ significantly by geographical area. Therefore six sub-models are constructed for differing geographical areas of the world. The dominant variables for each sub-model vary, suggesting a …

Technological Forecasting Based On Segmented Rate Of Change, Dong-Joon Lim

Dissertations and Theses

Consider the following questions in the early stage of new product development. What should be the target market for proposed design concepts? Who will be the competitors and how fast are they moving forward in terms of performance improvements? Ultimately, is the current design concept and targeted launch date feasible and competitive?

To answer these questions, there is a need to integrate the product benchmarking with the assessment of performance improvement so that analysts can have a risk measure for their R&D target setting practices. Consequently, this study presents how time series benchmarking analysis can be used to assist scheduling …

Creating A User-Friendly Personal Wine Collection Inventory Management System, Peter Loddengaard

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This project set out to create a user-friendly wine collection management software. Existing systems were reviewed and discussions with collectors took place to establish the user requirements for this type of inventory management system. This led to the scope of the project being narrowed to making a wine bottle entry form that was quick and easy to use. The programming language, Ruby on Rails, was used to design this system, and learning the software was a large part of the project itself. It was established that four forms would be designed using combinations of two ergonomic factors: an “F” shaped …

Wasco Environmental Chamber System Manifold, Steve Mark Yatco

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This report details the process of designing and producing a manifold that connects ultra-high purity (UHP) pressure and vacuum switches to an air supply so that the parts may be tested in an environmental chamber. Using the DMAIC (define, measure, analyze, improve, and control) methodology of problem solving, progress on the project includes thorough research about the problem, preliminary design solutions, iterative prototyping, and testing specific functionalities. Manufacturing engineering topics of tooling, fixturing, metrology, quality, and machining with manual and computer numerical control (CNC) varieties of both mills and lathes are applied during the course of the project. The report …

Frito-Lay - Supply Chain Impact Analysis, Kerri Blosch, Vincent Phua, Jeffrey Silva

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

The snack food company Frito-Lay relies on Route Sales Representatives (RSRs) to stock and maintain shelves of snack foods in every store. Frito-Lay currently does not have a system which can accurately predict cannibalization, or the effects of a store opening or closing on other stores of the same chain in the area. The goal is to sort through 1900 stores in a given metropolitan area to see the effects of cannibalization. In order to tackle the problem, a Microsoft Access program was created to filter stores based on location or whether the store was open for the full three-year …

Process Testing And Improvement Of Tapping Machinery At Lisi Aerospace, Michael James Hester

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This report documents my senior project for California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo. I have chosen to do a senior project with Lisi Aerospace. Lisi would like to compare the manufacturer rated cycle count of taps versus an experimental one based on our machines in house. My goal for this project would be to run an experiment on one tapping machine and report on the achievable cycle count for the taps. I plan to do this in several ways including:

• Running extra cycle counts above tap manufacturer recommendations

• Documenting machine failure modes

• Create a process document to be repeated …

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Improving Advertisement Recognition And User Interface Of Gameofwarrealtips.Com, Chad Kihm, Alexander Meyer

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

The purpose of this experiment was to determine which location of advertisement would be the most recognized on the Game of War Real Tips website and to improve the website’s user interface by using both quantitative and qualitative data. To accomplish this, two experiments were created. The first experiment was designed to determine which location of advertisement would be recognized most by users. A screen would flash for 0.5 seconds and the subjects would mark where they believed they recognized an advertisement. A statistical analysis was completed to determine whether the location of the advertisement had an effect on the …