Baseball Portfolio Optimization,
2016
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
Baseball Portfolio Optimization, Keegan Henderson
Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses
Portfolio optimization techniques are methods used to determine the best set of stocks in which to invest. Mean-variance optimization, one method of portfolio optimization, attempts to find the set of portfolios that have the maximum expected return at each level of risk (Jorion, 1992). Another technique, Monte Carlo simulation, uses random number generation to create a probability distribution of potential returns (Kwak & Ingall, 2007). This can be used to determine the risk of potential investments not returning a certain desired amount (Thompson & McLeod, 2009). Though traditionally used in the world of finance, these tools can also be utilized …
Modeling Supply Chain Resiliency,
2016
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
Modeling Supply Chain Resiliency, Jeff A. Hazel
Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses
Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a Department of Defense (DoD) program focusing on the effective and efficient design and development of complex engineered systems throughout their life cycle. There is a growing literature with qualitative definitions of resilience and quantitative models for systems with one performance measure. This paper uses a quantitative resilience framework (the Framework for ERS) that includes system design options, reliability, threats, vulnerabilities, responses, and consequences assessed in multiple system performance measures. The framework assists in establishing a model for any system to evaluate resiliency. This paper applies this framework using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis (MODA) to …
Production And Inventory Control In Complex Production Systems Using Approximate Dynamic Programming.,
2016
University of Louisville
Production And Inventory Control In Complex Production Systems Using Approximate Dynamic Programming., Han Wu
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Production systems focus not only on providing enough product to supply the market, but also on delivering the right product at the right price, while lowering the cost during the production process. The dynamics and uncertainties of modern production systems and the requirements of fast response often make its design and operation very complex. Thus, analytical models, such as those involving the use of dynamic programming, may fail to generate an optimal control policy for modern production systems. Modern production systems are often in possession of the features that allow them to produce various types of product through multiple working …
Green Logistic Network Design : Intermodal Transportation Planning And Vehicle Routing Problems.,
2016
University of Louisville
Green Logistic Network Design : Intermodal Transportation Planning And Vehicle Routing Problems., Xiaoren Duan
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Due to earth's climate change and global warming, environmental consideration in the design of logistic systems is accelerating in recent years. In this research we aim to design an efficient and environmentally friendly logistical system to satisfy both government and carriers. In particular, we considered three problems in this dissertation: intermodal network design, deterministic green vehicle routing problem and stochastic green vehicle routing problem. The first problem aims to design an economic and efficient intermodal network including three transportation modes: railway, highway and inland waterway. The intent of this problem is to increase the utilization percentage of waterway system in …
A Tabu Search, Augment-Merge Heuristic To Solve The Stochastic Location Arc Routing Problem,
2016
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
A Tabu Search, Augment-Merge Heuristic To Solve The Stochastic Location Arc Routing Problem, Tiffany L. Yang
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
The location arc routing problem (LARP) is a network optimization problem combining strategic facility location decisions and tactical or operational vehicle routing decisions for customer demand located on arcs of a network. The LARP seeks to locate facilities, or depots, and create vehicle delivery routes to minimize costs. The total cost is comprised of three components: fixed facility locations costs, fixed route creation (or vehicle acquisition) costs, and variable arc traversal costs. The applications of the LARP are varied and often include public services such as mail delivery, garbage collection, and street sweeping. In all of these applications, the magnitude …
Operational Decision Making For Medical Clinics Through The Use Of Simulation And Multi-Attribute Utility Theory.,
2016
University of Louisville
Operational Decision Making For Medical Clinics Through The Use Of Simulation And Multi-Attribute Utility Theory., Bo Sun
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Currently, health care is a large industry that concerns everyone. Outpatient health care is an important part of the American health care system and is one of the strongest growth areas in the health care system. Many people pay attention to how to keep basic health care available to as many people as possible. A large health care system is usually evaluated by many performance measures. For example, the managers of a medical clinic are concerned about increasing staff utilization; both managers and patients are concerned about patient waiting time. In this dissertation, we study decision making for clinics in …
Use Of Response Surfaces In The Design Of A Simple Step Stress Accelerated Test Plan,
2016
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
Use Of Response Surfaces In The Design Of A Simple Step Stress Accelerated Test Plan, Alexander H. Wong
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
In designing accelerated testing plans, cost is a factor that is missing in much of the literature. This paper explicits considers cost by developing an optimization model with the objective to minimize costs for a simple step stress accelerated test plan. Two methodologies are employed. One is an optimization approach in which an attempt is made to quantify the behavior of a series-parallel hardware system over all stages of testing using a response surface, and then an optimization model is used to determine the settings for stresses and failure mode modifications for all stages of testing prior to the start …
A Case Study Of Two-Echelon Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem,
2016
Purdue University
A Case Study Of Two-Echelon Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem, Tianqi Yu
Open Access Theses
The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is a classic combinatorial optimization problem and a topic still studied for practical applications. Current research focuses on single echelon distribution systems such as distribution centers serving customers. However, in typical distribution, goods flows among regional distribution centers, local warehouses and customers, defined as a two-echelon network. The two-echelon multiple depot VRP problem is documented and applied to two stages illustrated by a small scale computational example. In the first stage, the simulated annealing algorithm is employed to determine the routes between local warehouses and final customers. For the second stage, trial-and-error is applied to …
Heterogeneous Air Defense Battery Location: A Game Theoretic Approach,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Heterogeneous Air Defense Battery Location: A Game Theoretic Approach, Nicholas T. Boardman
Theses and Dissertations
The Unites States and its allies confront a persistent and evolving threat from missile attacks as nations around the world continue to invest and advance their current capabilities. Within the air defense context of a missile-and-interceptor engagement, a challenge for the defender is that surface to air interceptor missile batteries often must be located to protect high-value targets dispersed over a vast area, subject to an attacker observing the disposition of batteries prior to developing and implementing an attack plan. To model this scenario, we formulate a two-player, three-stage, perfect information, sequential move, zero-sum game that accounts for, respectively, a …
A Response Surface Validation Of A Quantum Key Distribution Model,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
A Response Surface Validation Of A Quantum Key Distribution Model, Jacob M. Ehrlich
Theses and Dissertations
The need for secure communication in the presence of an adversary introduced the field of cryptology -- the practice and study of techniques for secure communication. A common method to secure communication is to distribute a secret key among authorized parties so they can encrypt and decrypt messages between each other. By doing so, ideally, any messages intercepted by a third party are meaningless. An innovative technique to distribute a shared key is Quantum Key Distribution (QKD). QKD uses laws of quantum mechanics to generate and distribute such keys. The purpose of this thesis is to validate an existing mathematical …
Analysis Of Military Entry Control Point Queueing,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Analysis Of Military Entry Control Point Queueing, Justin J. Dwyer
Theses and Dissertations
Military Entry Control Facilities (ECFs) are unique service queues that are constrained by space, receive high peak traffic flow, and have a customer base that must receive service. Due to complexity of the interactions within the system, simulations provide input that would be impractical for quantitative experimentation. Our research examines relationships within the ECF in order to develop insights that could lead to more efficient daily operations. We focus the research on interactions that generate a queue length that would interfere with traffic flow surrounding the base. Examining the interactions between multiple arrival rates and service times as well as …
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher
Theses and Dissertations
Fluctuations in the economy can cause military recruitment and retention plans to go awry. By focusing on various economic metrics, it is possible to anticipate changes in retention rates for specific Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs). To address the challenge of maintaining a robust and mission capable Air Force, a correlation analysis is employed to determine the relationship between certain economic indicators and AFSC retention rates. As one might suspect, retention rates follow the trend of decreasing when the economy is strong. Of interest, we found two AFSCs which go against this trend. Namely, the retention rates for officers in …
The Impact Of Reducing Full Time Support Positions In The U.S. Army National Guard And Reserves,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
The Impact Of Reducing Full Time Support Positions In The U.S. Army National Guard And Reserves, Lucas J. Lease
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Army is at a point in its history in which it, along with the other branches of the military, are experiencing cuts, constraints and a tightening of resources. The days of seemingly large budgets, abundant financial resources and high amounts of manpower are becoming a thing of the past. As the government reduces the allocations to the military, it is examining ways to reduce costs and improve its financial prospects. One of the positions examined for reduction or outright elimination is the full time support position in the U.S. Army National Guard (ARNG) and Reserves (USAR). The …
Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command, Warren B. Mcgriff
Theses and Dissertations
The rate setting process implemented by the USTRANSCOM J8 Program Analysis & Financial Management Directorate (USTC J8 or TCJ8) is of importance, as accurate rates yield proper and equitable recoupment of costs from customers and ensure USTC can achieve an accurate Net Operating Result (NOR) in each given year. This research sought to identify areas in which the current rate setting methodology can be improved. We initially examined the use of six months of historical cost data versus a full year of data to set rates, concluding that there is not a statistically significant difference with respect to their relative …
Modeling And Economy’S Dynamics And External Influences Through A System Of Differential Equations,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Modeling And Economy’S Dynamics And External Influences Through A System Of Differential Equations, Thomas M. Dickey
Theses and Dissertations
This research proposes a methodology to develop models for the greater understanding of the application of the economic instrument of national power through a selection of factors that define the economic condition of a country. The major components of an economy are identified as GDP per capita, a treasury bond yield, and a major stock market index. The components have interconnected dynamics along with external influences from the United Stated Federal Funds Rate and foreign direct investment. These connections are considered through a metamodel in the form of a system of differential equations which is solved as an inverse problem. …
Sortie Generation Simulation Of A Fighter Squadron,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Sortie Generation Simulation Of A Fighter Squadron, Abdurrahman Sevimli
Theses and Dissertations
The Turkish Air Force utilizes several fighter squadrons to enhance its military capabilities. One of the most critical challenges for these squadrons is generating sorties to meet the currency and demand during both peacetime and wartime. This sortie generation process directly affects the success of both training and operations. In this study, this process is assessed using a discrete event simulation. Air Force decision makers require a simulation tool to conduct “what-if” analysis on how potential changes in the environment affect an F-16 fighter squadron’s sortie generation process. Creating a usable simulation provides decision makers with a flexible tool to …
Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems, Russell W. Walter
Theses and Dissertations
Despite the considerable academic interest in using machine learning methods to detect cyber attacks and malicious network traffic, there is little evidence that modern organizations employ such systems. Due to the targeted nature of attacks and cybercriminals’ constantly changing behavior, valid observations of attack traffic suitable for training a classifier are extremely rare. Rare positive cases combined with the fact that the overwhelming majority of network traffic is benign create an extreme class imbalance problem. Using publically available datasets, this research examines the class imbalance problem by using small samples of the attack observations to create multiple training sets that …
Application Of Non-Rated Line Officer Attrition Levels And Career Field Stability,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Application Of Non-Rated Line Officer Attrition Levels And Career Field Stability, Christine L. Zens
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force monitors the strength of its active duty officer force and attempts to achieve the difficult challenge of employing a diversity of talent among career specialties and experience levels. This study completes two objectives, predicting future manning levels for 23 career fields, and providing a statistical framework to assess the stability of these fields. The first part of the study applies regression and survival analysis to subpopulations within the active duty Air Force officer corps, and then aggregates them by year to forecast future personnel levels. Four career fields are considered, including Acquisitions (ACQ), Logistics (LOG), Support (SPT), …
A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow, Jovan Popovich
Theses and Dissertations
The generation of noise caused by wind owing past a human ear is an important yet vastly understudied factor in determining the ambient noise of an environment experienced by a human observer. Sound level measurements were obtained from wind tunnel tests simulating a human experiencing wind ows at various speeds and from various directions. This data set was used in this thesis. This thesis presents a collection of models for predicting wind noise levels across a broad spectrum of frequencies based on wind speed and angle inputs. Graphical approaches are included to characterize the observed data and illustrate the models' …
United States Air Force Officer Manpower Planning Problem Via Approximate Dynamic Programming,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
United States Air Force Officer Manpower Planning Problem Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Amelia E. Bradshaw
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force (USAF) is concerned with managing its officer corps to ensure sufficient personnel for mission readiness. Manpower planning for the USAF is a complex process which requires making decisions about accessions. Uncertainty about officer retention complicates such decisions. We formulate a Markov decision process model of the Air Force officer manpower planning problem (AFO-MPP) and utilize a least squares approximate policy iteration algorithm as an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) technique to attain solutions. Computational experiments are conducted on two AFO-MPP instances to compare the performance of the policy determined with the ADP algorithm to a benchmark …
