Computer Engineering Commons^™

Land Use Change And Agricultural Production Of A Central European Region Expected Until 2050, Joerg A. Priess, Christian Hoyer, Greta Jäckel, Sebastian Pomm, Eva Lang, Christian Schweitzer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Based on a participatory scenario process, we assessed potential land-use trajectories for Central Germany until 2050. The objective was to quantify consequences of large scale drivers such as climate change, as well as regional drivers such as population decline, and changes in regional preferences e.g. concerning bioenergy production, organic agriculture or reforestation as considered by regional stakeholders and scientists during scenario development. Stakeholders were covering a broad range of state and regional scale private and public bodies and NGOs. The spatially explicit and cellular automata based land use model SITE was used to simulate land use change scenarios until 2050. …

A Combined Abm-Ca Approach For Analysing Effects Of Peer-Influence And Landowner Decision- Making On Urban Development Patterns, J. Koch, M. A. Dorning, S. M. Beck, G. M. Sanchez, A. Shashidharan, L. S. Smart, J. W. Smith, D. B. Van Berkel, Q. Zhang, R. K. Meentemeyer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In many parts of the U.S., population growth combined with continued demand for low-density housing is transforming the structure of peri-urban landscapes. Despite the substantial amount of privately owned land, the important decision-making roles that individual landowners play in shaping patterns of urbanization and landscape change is understudied. We introduce a data-informed simulation model developed to analyse the decision-making processes that determine spatial characteristics of fragmentation in peri-urban areas by combining the utility of a cellular automata urban growth algorithm (CA module), based on the FUTURES model, with an agent-based model (ABM module). The CA module is conceptualized as a …

Implementing Urine Patches In A Dynamic Process- Based Simulation Model, V. O. Snow, R. Cichota, N. J. Hutchings, J. Vejlin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Grazing ruminants harvest N from pasture in the entire paddock and then deposit between 40 and 80% of the ingested N into urine patches that cover only 2-4% of the paddock area during a typical rotational grazing event. While previous work has shown the importance of explicitly modelling these patches of very high N deposition, most process-based simulation models assume uniform return of N to the soil. The very few models that explicitly model urine patches within the paddock do so at significant, perhaps prohibitive, computational cost. We sought a solution that would preserve the most important biophysical effects but …

Agrodb – Integration Of Database Management Systems With Crop Models, Alexandre Tagliari Lazzaretti, José Maurício C. Fernandes, Willingthon Pavan, Josué Toebe, Roberto Wiest

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The usefulness of crop simulation models for understanding and transferring agricultural technology is widely acknowledged. The decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) has been in use for the last 3 decades by researchers worldwide. The DSSAT-Cropping System Model (CSM) is a general model for simulating crop growth and development, as well as the soil and plant water, nitrogen phosphorus, and carbon dynamics. The DSSAT-CSM comprises a suite of crop simulation models, including the CSM-CROPSIM wheat. However, depending on the type and number of simulations, it is usually necessary to handle large volumes of input and output data. A database …

Natural Resource Use In Smallholder Environments – Model Tailoring To Reach The Right People, Carsten Marohn, Georg Cadisch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Our contribution describes challenges encountered during the development of the Land Use Change Impact Assessment tool (LUCIA) from a pure research instrument to a more applied tool and possible ways forward. LUCIA is a dynamic, spatially explicit landscape-scale model. Its scope is assessing impacts of land use change and management on soil productivity and fertility, biomass production, watershed functions and environmental services in small catchments emphasizing processes connecting different parts of landscapes. Over time the original target group – researchers – expanded to farmers, students and authorities. Main motivations for model use included a) plot level yield estimates, fertiliser recommendations; …

The Stability And Ecophysiological Realism Of Calibrated Parameters In A Detailed Vegetation Model (Waves), R. W. Vervoort, J. D. Henry, M. Gharun, M. A. Adams

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

WAVES is a daily time-step one-dimensional vegetation, water and energy transfer model that has been used extensively across Australia (and globally) to simulate ecohydrological processes. In particular it has been used extensively for assessing future recharge under climate change. A literature review suggests parameter values from the user manual are most commonly used in research. This suggests that further investigation into the stability and equifinality of the parameters might be warranted, specifically since the model is used for scenario studies. This study made use of an extensive sapflow and soil moisture data set for 7 tree vegetation sites in the …

Designing Mixed Fruit-Vegetable Cropping Systems By Integer Quadratic Programming, Sara Maqrot, Simon De Givry, Gauthier Quesnel, Marc Tchamitchian

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mixed fruit-vegetable cropping systems (MFVCS) are a promising way of ensuring environmentally sustainable agricultural production systems in response to the challenge of being able to fulfill local market requirements. Indeed, they combine productions and they also make a better use of biodiversity. These agroforestry systems are based on a complex set of interactions modifying the utilization of light, water and nutrients. Thus, designing such a system must optimize the use of these resources, by maximizing positive interactions (facilitation) and minimizing negative ones (competition). To attain these objectives, the system's design has to include the spatial and temporal dimensions of these …

M3o: A Matlab Toolbox For Designing Multi-Objective Optimal Operations Of Water Reservoir Systems, M. Giuliani, Y. Li, A. Cominola, S. Denaro, E. Mason, A. Castelleti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water reservoir operations have huge potential for contributing positively to the development of different sectors, as well as for reducing the vulnerabilities of water systems caused by changing hydro-climatic and socio-economic forcing. Despite the problem of optimally designing operating policies for water storages has been extensively studied, many state-of-the-art methods are generally distributed as commercial software, thus constraining the possibility of exploring or modifying these tools for customized applications. This motivates the search for advanced, flexible, and open tools supporting the design of operating policies capable of meeting the multiple competing demands associated to the operations of water storages. In …

An Integrated Modelling Approach To Climate Change And Malaria Vulnerability Assessments, Esther Achieng Onyango, Oz Sahin, Cordia Chu, Brendan Mackey

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies providing evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures resulting in adverse impacts on vulnerable communities. This risk is significant in East Africa whereby current research shows an expansion of malaria into the highland areas due to changes in temperature and rainfall. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria and the risk posed to vulnerable communities, there is insufficient understanding of the complexity of factors influencing the spread of the …

Exploration Of The Long Term Sustainability Of The French Risk Management, Frédéric Grelot, Bruno Bonté, Zhongyang Fang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Public flood risk management (FRM) in France, as in other countries like USA, Great Britain, relies on a combination of tools dealing with the negative consequences of flood. Spatial scale of those tools differs: insurance is defined and managed at national scale, land use regulation is defined at national scale but implemented at local scale, protection against flood may be implemented at local or even individual scales. The objective of this communication is to build a model for the analysis of the sustainability of the French FRM. For this, we used a simple but contextualized agent-based model (Cat-Nat ABM).

In …

Scientific Research Documentation - An Information Server For The National Park Hunsrück-Hochwald, Peter Fischer-Stabel, Micheal Mattern

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Within the world network of nature reserves, a national park is a park in use for conservation purposes. Beside it´s high value for nature and biodiversity, national parks are serving as sites for research, environmental monitoring, education and training. In order to ensure a long-lasting, central and efficient access to the literature and data on such a nature reserve for all scientists from the respective institutions, a research information portal was established for the National Park Hunsrück-Hochwald. Based on a user requirements analysis, a client-server architecture using open source components was set up. Core modules are a metadata-management component and …

Evaluation Of Future Climate Change Impact On Aquatic Ecosystem And Health Using Lm3-Tan Model In South Korea, Jin Wan Lee, Chung Gil Jung, So Ra Ahn, Seong Joon Kim

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Recently, LM3-TAN (Land Model 3 Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen) land-based physical, biological, chemical processes model for South Korea was developed to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and future climate change on Aquatic Nitrogen cycling by Korea NIEL (National Institute of Environmental Research). The objective of this study is to analyse the relationship between stream water quality, water temperature, and Trophic Diatom Index (TDI) and Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) determined by stream water quality factors. The TDI and BMI monitored 2 times …

Supporting Wildlife Conservation By Modelling The Effectiveness Of Community-Led Poacher Mitigation, Marit E. Kragt, Eric J. Hay, Micheal Renton

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Illegal hunting and poaching are severely threatening biodiversity in Southeast Asia, especially those species that are rare or threatened. Management strategies to address this poaching problem include wildlife patrols that collect and remove wire snares. While studies exist that predict the impact of poaching on biodiversity loss, there are few studies that evaluate the effectiveness of policy strategies. We present a model that predicts how community-led poaching mitigation patrols could help wildlife conservation the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). The results show that, without intervention, nearly all species will be poached to local extinction over the next 10 years. We …

A Java Binary Tree Data Structure For Environmental Modelling, Francesco Serafin, Marialaura Bancheri, Riccardo Rigon, Olaf David

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The modelling of natural phenomena to solve a wide range of problems has increased in popularity in the last three decades. However, as the size and complexity of the source code of environmental models has grown, issues related to maintainability and further development have arisen. In this work, we show an innovative way to simplify the reuse and development of new models, decoupling the physics of the processes from the schematization of information flow and feedback. Each physical process (for instance, evapotranspiration or runoff production) might be implemented as a stand alone component for a framework like OMS v3, which …

A Novel Approach To Parameterizing Utility Functions For Agent-Based Market Models Of Resource Choice, Dawn Parker, Yu Huang, Robert Babin, Jeff Casello, Xiongbing Jin, Xinyue Pi, Veronica Sullivan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Theoretical economic choice models posit that agents make resource allocation decisions based on the “utility,” or subjective satisfaction that they receive from alternative choices. Utility allows agents to rank choices and potentially apply optimization algorithms to these choices. Utility, however, is not measurable in an empirical context. Thus, modelers alternatively estimate linear empirical functions that associate factors with observed choices and/or market prices. While these linear functions can include factors that reflect multiple social and natural dimensions of decision making, they are not suitable for optimization (even using assumptions of bounded rationality) or for representing synergies and substitutability between factors. …

Employing State Of The Art Model Ensembles For Impact Assessment Of Air Pollution, Leif Vogel, Sérgio Faria, Joseph V. Spadaro, Anil Markandya

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Current annual global estimates of premature deaths from poor air quality are estimated in the range of 2.6-4.4 million, and 2050 projections are expected to double against 2010 levels. In Europe, annual economic burdens are estimated at around 750 bn €. Climate change will further exacerbate air pollution burdens; therefore, a better understanding of the economic impacts on human societies has become an area of intense investigation. European research efforts on the integration of Earth Observation data within modelling frameworks have been carried out within the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate (MACC) project series, running from 2005 till 2015. The …

Pynsim: An Open-Source Software Framework For Building Simulation Models Of Multi-Actor Resource Networks, Stephen Knox, Philipp Meier, Jim Yoon, Phil Selby, Christian Klassert, Julien Harou, Thibaut Lachaut, Nicolas Avisse, Amaury Tilmant, Steve Gorelick

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Simulation of engineered resource systems is increasingly expected to represent the actions of multiple actors, from individual agents who manage one site to institutions that manage complex interactions within the resource system. These models often incorporate multiple components, which need to be integrated into a single computing context. In order to achieve such integration, a common semantic connection must be defined. We focus on systems such as water resources where a network of nodes and links can be used to represent the system. We present Pynsim, an open-source python simulation framework. In a Pynsim simulation, multiple model developers can contribute …

Simulating Regional-Scale Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions In Scotland, Vasileios Myrgiotis, Cairistiona F. E. Topp, Robert M. Rees, Mathew Williams

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a major greenhouse gas whose largest anthropogenic source is the addition of nitrogenous fertilisers to cultivated soils. The development and application of mechanistic models of soil biogeochemistry contributes significantly to the effort to understand and quantify those N2O fluxes. Soil biogeochemistry models are complex and can be particularly difficult to evaluate because N2O measurements are usually sporadic and contain large uncertainties. Therefore, large-scale simulations with such models can be demanding. The majority of model-based studies focus on small spatial scales (i.e. field, catchment) despite the fact that simulations at larger scales are those that offer more …

Re-Examining The Abm Empirical Toolkit In A World Of Big (Behavioral) Data, Andrew Bell

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Robinson et al. (2007) identify five key modes of informing agent-based models (ABM): surveys, participant observation, field and lab experiments, companion modeling, and remotely-sensed data. Janssen and Ostrom (2006) hone in on some of the key dimensions that differentiate these approaches and the kinds of inferences that can be made from them, including the depth of capturing cognitive processes, the number of repeated observations made, and the size of the sample. A decade of technological change has occurred since these reviews were prepared, with mobile technologies in particular breaking down barriers to the scale and scope with which behavioral data …

Livelihoods Of Local Communities In An Amazonian Floodplain Coping With Global Changes: From Role-Playing Games To Hybrid Simulations To Involve Local Stakeholders In Participatory Foresight Study At Territorial Level, Pierre Biommel, Marie-Paule Bonnet, Emilie Coudel, Eva Haentjens, Cleber Nunes Kraus, Gustavo Melo, Stephanie Nasuti, Christophe Le Page

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the Amazonian floodplains, the local populations living from agricultural activities and fishing, have always coped natural variations, between flood and dry seasons. However, the rhythm and the amplitude of these floods are disturbed nowadays, resulting in great uncertainty for these populations. Biophysics and social scientists have joined hands to help these populations better improve their resilience to such changes. Our initial goal aims to better understand and discuss the impacts of current practices in the long term. To address this, we first turned the perspective around the preoccupations and strategies of local populations and collectively discussed possible future scenarios. …