Towards An Interoperable And Distributed E-Infrastructure For Hydro-Meteorology: The Drihm Project,
2014
IMATI-CNR
Towards An Interoperable And Distributed E-Infrastructure For Hydro-Meteorology: The Drihm Project, Antonella Galizia, Daniele D’Agostino, Alfonso Quarti, Gabriele Zereik, Luca Roverelli, Emanuele Danovaro, Andrea Clematis, Fabio Delogu, Antonio Parodi, Quillon Harpham, Bert Jagers, Luis Garrote, Ljiljana Dekic, Vladimir Dimitrijevic, Evelyne Richard, Olivier Caumont
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Predicting weather and climate and its impacts on the environment, including hazards such as floods and landslides, is one of the main challenges of the 21st century with significant societal and economic implications. To advance the state of the art in forecasting extreme events, an effective collaboration with the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) scientific community is necessary to address challenges in combining meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and impact observations and modelling tools seemingly and in a platform that allows scenario building and decision-support. With these issues in mind, the Dis- tributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology (DRIHM) project aims at setting …
Kernel Density Independence Sampling Based Monte Carlo Scheme (Kismcs) For Inverse Hydrological Modeling,
2014
Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Kernel Density Independence Sampling Based Monte Carlo Scheme (Kismcs) For Inverse Hydrological Modeling, Mojtaba Shafiei, Shervan Gharari, Saket Pande, Sandjai Bhulai
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Posterior sampling methods are increasingly being used to describe parameter and model predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modelling. This paper proposes an alternative to random walk chains (such as DREAM-zs). We propose a sampler based on independence chains with an embedded feature of standardized importance weights based on Kernel density estimates. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is proposed with Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) updates using an independence sampler. The independence sampler ensures that candidate observations are drawn independently of the current state of a chain, thereby ensuring efficient exploration of the target distribution. The M-H acceptance-rejection criterion is used to sample …
Controls On Hydrologic Partitioning: Using A Mechanistic Model For Comparative Hydrology Across Ungauged Sub-Catchments In A Mountain Headwater Basin,
2014
Duke University
Controls On Hydrologic Partitioning: Using A Mechanistic Model For Comparative Hydrology Across Ungauged Sub-Catchments In A Mountain Headwater Basin, Christa Kelleher, Thorsten Wagener, Francesca Pianosi, Brian Mcglynn
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Headwater streams are the most abundant portion of the river network but the least monitored. As such, we have a limited understanding of headwater stream behaviours and how they are influenced by catchment properties such as topography, geology, and vegetation. Given the lack of runoff monitoring within headwater streams, improving an understanding of how catchment properties influence hydrologic behaviour is necessary for transferring information from instrumented areas to ungauged sites. We utilize this concept to understand physical controls on similarities and differences in hydrologic behaviour for five adjacent sub-catchments located in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in central Montana with …
Vulnerability And Adaptation Of Crop Production To Future Climate Change: A Case Study For Representative Farms In Flathead Valley, Montana, Usa,
2014
University of Missouri
Vulnerability And Adaptation Of Crop Production To Future Climate Change: A Case Study For Representative Farms In Flathead Valley, Montana, Usa, Tony Prato, Zeyuan Qui
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Future climate change has the potential to adversely impact crop production. This study evaluates the potential impacts of future climate change on crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income and the extent to which two forms of adaptation--flexible scheduling of field operations and crop irrigation--alleviate potential negative impacts of climate change on crop production and income in the Flathead Valley of Montana, USA during the evaluation period 2006-2050. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two common soil types. Without …
Silvio, Modelling Social Vulnerability Under A Local Perspective,
2014
Hamburg University
Silvio, Modelling Social Vulnerability Under A Local Perspective, Thaís López-Inojosa, Martina Neuburger, Sebastian Medina-Plascencia, Framklin Davila
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The objective of this research is to develop and to model an indicator of social vulnerability as part of a multidimensional, multivariable and non linear process. Social vulnerability can be considered as a complex system, in which many relationships in society and environment can be described by considering individual and structural factors. Numerous studies provide tools to analyze and revise social systems but these tools were developed generalizing and overviewing the relationship among many intermediate realities, for another type of systems, more formalized and conceptualized. Social systems do not have this classical formalization. The development of the SocIaL Vulnerability I …
Engaging Australian Surf Lifesaving In Coastal Hazard And Climate Change Adaptation With Stakeholder Driven Modelling,
2014
Griffith University
Engaging Australian Surf Lifesaving In Coastal Hazard And Climate Change Adaptation With Stakeholder Driven Modelling, Marcello Sono, Russell G. Richards, Oz Sahin, Shauna Sherker, Rodger Tomlinson
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Australia's beaches, an iconic playground and social hub for coastal communities, are threatened by coastal hazards and by the impacts of climate change. In particular, Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA) has assets, facilities and personnel exposed to coastal hazards and climate change, including numerous surf life saving clubs (SLSCs), which can impact its capacity of providing beach and water safety for Australian beaches. This research employed a range of methods to identify climate change adaptation options and to identify mechanisms to enhance adaptive capacity, combining a range of system-oriented, stakeholder-based techniques, including system thinking conceptual modelling, structural analysis, system dynamics …
App2adapt: Using Tablet Technology To Elicit Conditional Probabilities For Bayesian Belief Network Modelling,
2014
Griffith University
App2adapt: Using Tablet Technology To Elicit Conditional Probabilities For Bayesian Belief Network Modelling, Russell Richards, Oz Sahin, Marcello Sano, Jan-Olaf Meynecke, Rachel Tiller
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The aim of this study is to use touch-screen computer tablet technology (e.g. iPAD) and its interactive flight console capabilities (e.g. touch screen 'sliders') as an improved method to stakeholder driven climate change adaptation research. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation have strong human dimensions meaning that the experiences of stakeholders often plays an important role when assessing adaptation options and/or the determinants of adaptive capacity. Methods such as Bayesian belief networks {BBNs) can draw upon the extensive knowledge and beliefs of stakeholders in a straightforward manner yet are underpinned by a robust mathematical framework (i.e. Bayes theory). This is critically …
An Integrated Approach For Including Social Capacities, And Economic Valuation In Risk Assessment Of Water Related Hazards In Uncertain Scenarios,
2014
Ca' Foscari University of Venice
An Integrated Approach For Including Social Capacities, And Economic Valuation In Risk Assessment Of Water Related Hazards In Uncertain Scenarios, Carlo Giupponi, Vahid Mojtahed, Animesh K. Gain, Stefano Balbi, Claudio Biscaro
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We propose a conceptual framework, KR-FWK (i.e. KULTURisk Framework from the name of the European project within which it originated) and its implementation methods SERRA (Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment) for integrated (physical and economical) risk assessment, and economic valuation of risk prevention benefits on multiple receptors. The KR-FWK and the SERRA approach are characterised by: (i) integration of physical-environmental dimensions and the socio-economic ones in risk assessment; (ii) consideration of the role of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacity) in reducing risk and related costs, (iii) quantitative (even monetary) assessment of risks and of the benefits of risk reduction measures, …
Using Integrated Environmental Modeling To Automate A Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment,
2014
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Using Integrated Environmental Modeling To Automate A Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, Gene Whelan, Keewook Kim, Rajbir Parmar, Kurt Wolfe, Mike Galvin, Paul Duda, Mark Gray, Marirosa Molina, Richard Zepp, Yakov Pachepsky, John Ravenscroft, Lourdes Prieto, Brenda Kitchens
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effects relationships) to characterize potential health impacts/risks from exposure to pathogenic microorganisms. We demonstrate loosely connected IEM legacy technologies (SDMProjectBuilder, Microbial Source Module, HSPF, and BASINS) to support watershed-scale microbial source-to-receptor modeling, focusing on animal-impacted catchments. The coupled models automate manual steps in standard watershed assessments to expedite the process, minimize resources, increase ease of use, and introduce more science-based processes to the analysis. SDMProjectBuilder …
The Effect Of Recovery On Modeling Inactivation Of Bacillus Spores On Hvac Filters,
2014
Michigan State University
The Effect Of Recovery On Modeling Inactivation Of Bacillus Spores On Hvac Filters, Bharathi Murali, Jade Mitchell
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The ability of microorganisms to persist on fomite surfaces is an important component in modeling their spread in physical environment. For example, Bacillus anthracis (Ba) spores have been found to be extremely resistant to inactivation, environmental stresses, and stable over decades. Modeling the inactivation of spores could form an integral element for estimating the exposure and the subsequent health risks posed by them. However, there is a knowledge gap in the quantification of recovery of Bacillus spores on porous surfaces, which may have a significant effect on the quantification of their persistence in the environment. Our work investigates the recovery …
Addressing The Water-Energy-Climate Nexus Conundrum: A Systems Approach,
2014
Griffith University
Addressing The Water-Energy-Climate Nexus Conundrum: A Systems Approach, Oz Sahin, Rodney A. Stewart, Russell G. Richards
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Australia has the highest per capita surface water storage capacity of any country in the world. However, this storage capacity is at the mercy of Australia's rainfall, which is the most variable of any continental region. Recent drought shaved more than 1% off the nation's economy and saw unprecedented widespread water scarcity. In South-East Queensland (SEQ), six consecutive annual drops in storage level forced the introduction of water restrictions, limiting over 2 million citizens to less than 30% of pre-drought per capita usage. Moving forward, forecasts of high population growth and climate change will simultaneously increase water demand and significantly …
An Environmental Modeling Language For Agents And Fields,
2014
Utrecht University
An Environmental Modeling Language For Agents And Fields, Kor De Jong, Merijn De Bakker, Derek Karssenberg
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Environmental modeling involves manipulating environmental attributes represented in software by agents, fields or both, but most modeling environments are designed to be especially useful for either agent-based or field-based modeling. Agent-based and field-based modeling environments have different properties with respect to their ease of use and how well both agents and fields can be represented and manipulated. Most agent-based modeling environments require the modeler to use a general purpose object oriented programming language like Java to express models, while field-based modeling environments often implement a high level, domain specific imperative language based on map algebra, or extent a general purpose …
Gis-Based Environmental Modeling With Tangible Interaction And Dynamic Visualization,
2014
North Carolina State University
Gis-Based Environmental Modeling With Tangible Interaction And Dynamic Visualization, Anna Petrasova, Brendan Harmon, Vaclav Petras, Helena Mitasova
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We present a new, affordable version of TanGeoMS, a tangible geospatial modeling and visualization system designed for collaboratively exploring how terrain change impacts landscape pro cesses. It couples a physical, three-dimensional model of a landscape with geospatial modeling and analysis through a cycle of scanning and projection. Multiple users can modify the physical model by hand while it is being scanned; by sculpting the model they generate input for modeling of geophysical processes. The modeling results are then visualized by projecting images or animations back on the physical model. This feedback loop is an intuitive way to evaluate the impacts …
Managing Agricultural Landscapes For Favouring Ecosystem Services Provided By Biodiversity: A Spatially Explicit Model Of Crop Rotations In The Gama Simulation Platform,
2014
University of Toulouse
Managing Agricultural Landscapes For Favouring Ecosystem Services Provided By Biodiversity: A Spatially Explicit Model Of Crop Rotations In The Gama Simulation Platform, Hugo Thierry, Aude Vialatte, Jean-Philippe Choisis, Benoit Gaudou, Claude Monteil
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The need to reduce the use of pesticides in agricultural ecosystems requires studying and developing new pest regulation methods. Individual-based models are useful to better understand how dynamics of insects interact with agricultural landscapes and to study the potential effects of alternative regulation methods, taking into account the spatial and temporal stochasticity of agricultural ecosystems caused by human management. Crop rotations and crop phenology have an important impact on the life cycles of populations of insects. We developed an individual-based model simulating the dynamics of an agricultural landscape from GIS data. The spatiotemporal stochasticity is simulated using typical landcover rotations …
The Csdms Standard Names: Cross-Domain Naming Conventions For Describing Process Models, Data Sets And Their Associated Variables,
2014
University of Colorado, INSTAAR
The Csdms Standard Names: Cross-Domain Naming Conventions For Describing Process Models, Data Sets And Their Associated Variables, Scott D. Peckham
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The CSDMS (Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) modeling framework provides mechanisms that allow models and data sets from different contributors to be automatically coupled in a plug-and-play manner to create composite models. In developing this capability, a key challenge has been that of automatic semantic mediation, or name matching, because each model or data set (here called a resource) uses its own set of terms for input and output variable names. These names are often domain-specific or abbreviated. In order for the CSDMS framework to determine whether one model’s output variable is appropriate to be used as another model’s input …
Metadata For Describing Water Models,
2014
University of Virginia
Metadata For Describing Water Models, Mohamed M. Morsy, Jonathan L. Goodall, Christina Bandaragoda, Anthony M. Castronova, Jane Greenberg
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Computer models are widely used in hydrology and water resources management. A large variety of models exist, each tailored to address specific challenges related to hydrologic science and water resources management. When scientists and engineers apply one of these models to address a specific question, they must devote significant effort to set up, calibrate, and evaluate that model instance built for some place and time. In many cases, there is a benefit to sharing these computer models and associated datasets with the broader scientific community. Core to model reuse in any context is metadata describing the model. A standardized metadata …
Toward Integrated Environmental Modeling Using Research Data Infastructures,
2014
Utah State University
Toward Integrated Environmental Modeling Using Research Data Infastructures, Jeffery S. Horsburgh
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Anticipated changes to climate, human population, land use, and urban form will alter the hydrology and availability of water within the water systems on which the world's population relies. Managing water resources, as well as maintaining associated capacity to provide ecosystem services (e.g., regulating flooding, maintaining instream flow during dry periods, cycling nutrients, and maintaining water quality) will require better information characterizing both the natural hydrologic system and human mediated hydrologic systems. The next generation of integrated environmental models will seek to provide this information but requires better access to data at the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision …
Investigating Parameter Sensitivity For Management In Snow-Driven Watersheds,
2014
University of Colorado Boulder
Investigating Parameter Sensitivity For Management In Snow-Driven Watersheds, Elizabeth Houle, Joseph Kasprzyk
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Recent projections of environmental change have shown possible variation to temperature and precipitation patterns due to climate change. In snowmelt-dominated watersheds, adapting to such environmental changes requires a detailed understanding of hydrological processes in addition to historical snow cover and streamflow data. Snow models are often incorporated as an additional component of hydrological modeling studies that inform research and operations management. However, previous research and parameter estimation approaches using snow models assume that parameters have a single optimal value and that each parameter is sensitive. This paper demonstrates that an improved understanding of snow model parameter sensitivity can aid in …
Agile Workflows For Climate Impact Risk Assessment Based On The Ci:Grasp Platform And The Jabc Modeling Framework,
2014
Potsdam University, Institute of Computer Science
Agile Workflows For Climate Impact Risk Assessment Based On The Ci:Grasp Platform And The Jabc Modeling Framework, Samih Al-Areqi, Anna-Lena Lamprecht, Tiziana Margaria, Steffen Kriewald, Dominik Reusser, Markus Wrobel
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Analyzing and assessing potential impacts of climate change are critical and challenging tasks that require the processing of large and heterogeneous datasets. These analyses are particularly demanding because of the multi-scale and multi-objective nature of environmental modeling for climate change impact assessment. The Climate Impacts: Global and Regional Adaptation Support Platform (ci:grasp) is a web-based climate information service for exploring climate change related information in its geographical context. In this paper, we show how the agile workflow development style supported by the jABC process modeling and execution framework permits us to leverage the processes implemented in the ci:grasp platform to …
Multiscale Spatial Sensitivity Analysis For Agent-Based Modelling Of Coupled Landscape And Aquatic Systems,
2014
Michigan State University
Multiscale Spatial Sensitivity Analysis For Agent-Based Modelling Of Coupled Landscape And Aquatic Systems, Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Wei Liu, Daniel B. Kramer, Kendra Spence Cheruvelil, Patricia A. Soranno, Piotr Jankowski, Seda Salap
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Models of coupled landscape and aquatic systems (CLAS) are prone to input uncertainties that vary over space. To address this challenge, we employ a comprehensive model evaluation that: [1] quantifies the variability of model results (uncertainty analysis), and [2] decomposes this variability based on the relative contribution of inputs to identify major drivers in the model (sensitivity analysis). Our study simulates how agricultural land conversion from active to fallow lands reduces nutrient loading to lakes. We employ an agent-based model of farmer decision making coupled with a spatially-explicit biophysical lake model. A number of model inputs are uncertain including: variables …
