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Raven Sentry: Employing Ai For Indications And Warnings In Afghanistan, Thomas W. Spahr May 2024

Raven Sentry: Employing Ai For Indications And Warnings In Afghanistan, Thomas W. Spahr

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article examines Raven Sentry, a project that employed artificial intelligence to provide advance warning of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan. During 2019 and 2020, the Resolute Support Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (J2) benefited from a command culture open to innovation, the urgency created by the US drawdown, and a uniquely talented group of personnel that, aided by commercial sector experts, built an AI system that helped predict attacks. The war’s end cut Raven Sentry short, but the experience provides important lessons on AI and the conditions necessary for successful innovation.


From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii May 2024

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Summer 2024 issue of Parameters. We open this issue with a special “In Memoriam” by General Charles A. Flynn, Commander US Army Pacific, honoring the life and legacies of our director and consummate colleague, Carol V. Evans. We dedicate this issue to her. General Flynn’s memoriam is followed by an In Focus commentary on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. We then feature three forums covering the Russia-Ukraine War, the Middle East, and Professional Development. This issue also contains special essays on the role of professional writing, the US Army War College’s Civil-Military Relations Center, …


The Dynamics Of Us Retrenchment In The Middle East, Paul K. Macdonald, Joseph M. Parent May 2024

The Dynamics Of Us Retrenchment In The Middle East, Paul K. Macdonald, Joseph M. Parent

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that conditions favor American retrenchment from the Middle East because the United States can shift burdens to capable states in the region, there are few areas where US commitments are interdependent, and the local conquest calculus favors defense. Forward military deployments do not positively influence potential threats in the Middle East, and maintaining deployments there will detract from meeting challenges from China. Through comparisons to prior cases of great-power ordinal decline, this article puts America’s modest decline in historical perspective and finds that retrenchment policies will likely have positive consequences.


The Combat Path: Sustaining Mental Readiness In Ukrainian Soldiers, Oleh Hukovskyy, James C. West, Joshua C. Morganstein, Eugene F. Augusterfer, David M. Benedek, Oleg Boyko, Robert J. Ursano, Amy B. Adler May 2024

The Combat Path: Sustaining Mental Readiness In Ukrainian Soldiers, Oleh Hukovskyy, James C. West, Joshua C. Morganstein, Eugene F. Augusterfer, David M. Benedek, Oleg Boyko, Robert J. Ursano, Amy B. Adler

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

In Ukraine, soldiers’ psychological resilience is of paramount concern. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have developed a new intervention, Combat Path Debriefing, designed to address combat stress and promote unit readiness for soldiers returning to combat. This article outlines the components of Combat Path Debriefing and discusses how it is rooted in principles of combat and operational stress control and the unique characteristics of Ukrainian military life. This perspective offers US and allied leaders real-world experience that can inform future efforts to support soldiers’ mental health and combat performance.


Exploring The Nexus Of Military And Society At A 50-Year Milestone, Patricia M. Shields May 2024

Exploring The Nexus Of Military And Society At A 50-Year Milestone, Patricia M. Shields

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

There is an ongoing dependence and tension between the military and the society it protects. This article examines the relatively new “military and society” field using the 50-year anniversary of the journal Armed Forces & Society as a focal point. This dynamic field is influenced by world events, cultural trends, and politics. Civil-military relations is at the heart of the discourse. An international and interdisciplinary journal, Armed Forces & Society reflects the changing nature of the field over the last 50 years. I have edited the journal since 2001 and bring this experience to the discussion.


Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press May 2024

Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


China's Use Of Nontraditional Strategic Landpower In Asia, Sheena Chestnut Greitens Mar 2024

China's Use Of Nontraditional Strategic Landpower In Asia, Sheena Chestnut Greitens

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that the People’s Republic of China uses its police and internal security forces as a nontraditional means of projecting strategic Landpower in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia. Instead of limiting analysis of China’s power projection to military forces, this article employs new data on Chinese police engagements abroad to fill a gap in our understanding of the operating environment in Asia. Policymakers will gain an understanding of how these activities enhance China’s presence, partnerships, and influence across the region to inform the development of recommendations for a more effective response.


Strategy As Problem-Solving, Andrew Carr Mar 2024

Strategy As Problem-Solving, Andrew Carr

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article proposes a new definition of strategy as problem-solving that challenges the focus on goals and assumptions of order within many post–Cold War approaches to strategy. It argues that the military needs strategy to diagnose the complex problems of the twenty-first century before they can be solved. Inspired by practitioners such as Andrew Marshall and George F. Kennan, this new definition clarifies what strategists do and offers a logic for distinguishing the use of the term strategy. Practitioners will also find problem-solving tools and pedagogies they can adopt today.


Rethinking The Relevance Of Self-Deterrence, Jeffrey H. Michaels Mar 2024

Rethinking The Relevance Of Self-Deterrence, Jeffrey H. Michaels

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars.


From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii Mar 2024

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Spring 2024 issue of Parameters. Readers will note a few differences in the formatting for this issue: we are now using endnotes instead of footnotes to facilitate switching from pdf to html via Adobe's Liquid App; also, readers will be able to click on each endnote number to view the full endnote and then switch back to the text to resume reading. Please drop us a note to let us know how you like the changes. More are coming!


Us-Taiwan Relations And The Future Of The Liberal International Order, Christina Lai Mar 2024

Us-Taiwan Relations And The Future Of The Liberal International Order, Christina Lai

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the best chance the United States has to preserve the liberal international order in Asia and improve its security relative to China. This study offers a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to US-led international institutions and the Asian regional order and reduce conflict risk. It concludes with recommendations for the United States and its partners to integrate Taiwan into multilateral institutions in Asia.


International Law, Self-Defense, And The Israel-Hamas Conflict, Eric A. Heinze Mar 2024

International Law, Self-Defense, And The Israel-Hamas Conflict, Eric A. Heinze

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article examines the international law of self-defense as it applies to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict to determine whether the October 2023 attacks by Hamas against Israel can be interpreted under Article 51 of the UN Charter as an “armed attack” that gives Israel the right to use military force in self-defense against non-state actors. It situates the conflict within ongoing legal and political debates, shows how this conflict fits into a changing global reality where the most dangerous security threats do not exclusively emanate from other states and concludes that Israel’s resort to force in the current conflict appears …


Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press Mar 2024

Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


Police Flight Oversight: Lapd Drone As First Responder Implementation, Nathaniel Worley Jan 2024

Police Flight Oversight: Lapd Drone As First Responder Implementation, Nathaniel Worley

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores the feasibility of implementing a Drone as First Responder (DFR) program within the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), analyzing the operational, social, and financial implications compared to traditional police helicopter usage. The thesis investigates helicopter flight patterns, demographic correlations, and the potential for drones to provide a less invasive and more cost-effective aerial support system. Key findings include the use of incorrect identifying hex codes by LAPD helicopters, suggesting potential transparency issues in aerial operations. The thesis recommends DFR due to substantial cost savings and enhanced surveillance transparency and asserts that a DFR program can mitigate negative …


Exploring The Factors That Influence Female Offending In The U.S. And Mexico, Dana Villasenor Jan 2024

Exploring The Factors That Influence Female Offending In The U.S. And Mexico, Dana Villasenor

CMC Senior Theses

Hollywood has painted a picture of the criminal woman as a sexy, sneaky, and often psychotic female fatale. This is because men run Hollywood. Much like movies, research on why women offend had historically focused on men as their stellar. However, towards the turn of the century and with the disproportionate rise in female incarceration, literature caught up to the fact that women and men do not experience the same socialization, standards, or reality and, therefore, have different reasons for and ways of offending. This research explores those reasons for women in the U.S. and Mexico and paints the picture …


Power Projection And Counter-Terrorism: Strategies For Small States Like Brunei Darussalam, Brice Tseen Fu Lee, Gulshan Bibi Ms Dec 2023

Power Projection And Counter-Terrorism: Strategies For Small States Like Brunei Darussalam, Brice Tseen Fu Lee, Gulshan Bibi Ms

Journal of Terrorism Studies

This study delves into the intricacies of power projection strategies and counter-terrorism measures, emphasizing their relevance to small states, with a specific focus on Brunei Darussalam. Using a dual matrix model, the research categorizes various strategies based on risk-reward parameters, offering a structured insight into potential approaches these states can employ against potential aggressors. The counter-terrorism matrix is the initial focal point, recognizing the contemporary significance of terror threats and their unique challenges for small nations. Subsequently, the power projection matrix offers a broader view of defense tactics beyond counter-terrorism. By synthesizing information from primary academic sources, the study aims …


Parameters Winter 2023-24 Full Issue, Usawc Press Nov 2023

Parameters Winter 2023-24 Full Issue, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


Introduction To The China Landpower Studies Center, Richard D. Butler Nov 2023

Introduction To The China Landpower Studies Center, Richard D. Butler

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC). This will be a regular feature in Parameters that will discuss critical military and security issues related to China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It will also highlight the Center’s research agenda and key activities. My objective in this first installment is to outline the purpose, organization, capabilities, research agenda, and expected products of the Center.


From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii Nov 2023

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters. This issue opens with two In Focus commentaries offering observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).


Geopolitics In Recent U.S. Professional Military Reading Lists, Bert Chapman Nov 2023

Geopolitics In Recent U.S. Professional Military Reading Lists, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Scholarship and Research

Professional military reading lists have existed for a long time in the U.S. military and in other national militaries. They are frequently updated and intended to enhance the professional knowledge of military professionals in areas ranging from cultural awareness, ethics, leadership, international relations, military history and military operations, and areas of expertise considered essential to successfully executing the operations of their military service branch. These lists are prepared by the leadership organizations of these armed services such as the Air Force Chief of Staff, U.S. Army’s Chief of Staff, Chief of Naval Operations, and Marine Corps Commandant. Such readings are …


The Chechen Kadyrovtsy’S Coercive Violence In Ukraine, Wilson A. Jones Aug 2023

The Chechen Kadyrovtsy’S Coercive Violence In Ukraine, Wilson A. Jones

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Russia pioneered exploiting civilian inequalities to maximize military effectiveness in Chechnya, contributing to the Kadyrovtsy blocking detachments observed in Ukraine. Kadyrovtsy, pro-Russian Chechens, are drawn from a unique political order enabling this specialized military role. Military inequality literature typically ignores how minority-ethnic forces often serve in specialized combat roles. Understanding the Chechen Wars, the Kadyrov regime, and living standards in Russia helps explain these minority-ethnic blocking detachments in Ukraine. Analysis of this vital section of Putin’s regime offers actionable recommendations for Western actors to undermine Russian military efforts and identifies the potential risks of those actions.


Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press Aug 2023

Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


Parameters Autumn 2023, Usawc Press Aug 2023

Parameters Autumn 2023, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


A Historical Perspective On Today’S Recruiting Crisis, Brian Mcallister Linn Aug 2023

A Historical Perspective On Today’S Recruiting Crisis, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article analyzes the US Army’s successive recruiting crises, identifying their consistent patterns and the efforts to resolve them, and makes three provocative arguments. First, there is a long-standing institutional tension between recruiting personnel for the combat arms and technical and administrative specialists. Second, many of today’s talent management problems were first identified in a 1907 General Staff report and reiterated in subsequent studies. Third, the Army has pursued innovative recruitment strategies, but much of their success depended on factors outside the service’s control. The essay concludes with four history-based recruiting lessons and an affirmation that the 2019 Army People …


Urban Resistance To Occupation: An Underestimated Element Of Land Warfare, Kevin D. Stringer, Jelle J. H. Hooiveld Aug 2023

Urban Resistance To Occupation: An Underestimated Element Of Land Warfare, Kevin D. Stringer, Jelle J. H. Hooiveld

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

With the world trending toward urbanization, and Russia and China acting aggressively toward Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, the conduct of irregular warfare in built-up environments—specifically, urban resistance to occupation—merits greater study. The authors’ Dutch-language and primary source research on the Netherlands’ World War II urban resistance to German occupation makes this article unique. It provides deeper insights into the occupation experiences of a highly urbanized, densely populated country in which clandestine underground and auxiliary elements played paramount roles in resistance efforts for most of the occupation period. It also illustrates the feasibility of overt, guerrilla-based activity in urban environments during …


The Impact Of Antarctic Treaty Challenges On The Us Military, Ryan J. Bridley, Kevin W. Matthews Aug 2023

The Impact Of Antarctic Treaty Challenges On The Us Military, Ryan J. Bridley, Kevin W. Matthews

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

While the Antarctic Treaty of 1961 largely prevented conflicts on the continent, growing challenges to the treaty system could affect the United States and the global community. Through historical documents and press reports, this article examines ice deterioration, unreported and unregulated fishing, resource extraction preparation, hostilities between treaty members, and the roles of China and Russia in the region. It provides recommendations for policymakers and military strategists on how the United States can maintain global security and treaty interests—and the potential request for intervention—within the guidelines of the National Security Strategy.


From The Acting Editor In Chief, Conrad C. Crane Aug 2023

From The Acting Editor In Chief, Conrad C. Crane

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Autumn 2023 issue of Parameters. This issue includes two In Focus special commentaries, a Strategic Challenges forum, a Historical Studies forum, and the SRAD Director’s Corner.


Us-Russia Foreign Policy: Confronting Russia’S Geographic Anxieties, Caitlin P. Irby Aug 2023

Us-Russia Foreign Policy: Confronting Russia’S Geographic Anxieties, Caitlin P. Irby

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The United States must place Russia’s focus on geographic concerns at the center of future strategy development to build a constructive relationship with Russia and achieve US regional goals. This article analyzes Russia’s geography and historical impact on Russian foreign policy, outlines Moscow’s current foreign policy goals, and highlights underlying concerns for US policymakers and military practitioners. By pursuing policies that support Russian goals of economic integration, mitigation of demographic concerns, and security of national borders, the United States can set the foundation for productive engagement on critical issues.


Autumn Book Reviews, Usawc Press Aug 2023

Autumn Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


The Strategic Importance Of Taiwan To The United States And Its Allies: Part Two – Policy Since The Start Of The Russia-Ukraine War, Luke P. Bellocchi Aug 2023

The Strategic Importance Of Taiwan To The United States And Its Allies: Part Two – Policy Since The Start Of The Russia-Ukraine War, Luke P. Bellocchi

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and indeed has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically important. Part two reviews the development of US and allied policy statements on Taiwan—from the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to the present—and provides policymakers and military strategists with incremental but realistic recommendations for understanding the current dynamic of the region and fashioning responses to deter further authoritarian aggression.