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What Ukraine Taught Nato About Hybrid Warfare, Sarah J. Lohmann, Chuck Benson, Vytautas Butrimas, Georgios Giannoulis, Gabriel Raicu, Michael Bervell, Milagro Castilleja, Chris Clyde, Christopher J. Eaton, Alex Elmore, Ryan Fisk, Erin Hodges, Frank J. Kuzminski, Vishwa Padigepati, Caitlin Quirk, Brenton M. Riddle, Shuo Zhang, Lucas Cox, Samira Oakes

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states.

Cyberattacks targeting the renewable energy landscape during Europe’s green …

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar Of Coercion In The Twenty-First Century, C. Anthony Pfaff

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game-theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these …

China, Europe, And The Pandemic Recession: Beijing’S Investments And Transatlantic Security, John R. Deni, Chris Alden, Erik Brattberg, Roger Cliff, Mark Duckenfield, R. Evan Ellis, Nicholas Nelson, Lauren Speranza

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in Europe, building Beijing’s soft power, weakening allied geopolitical solidarity, and potentially reprising the role it played in the 2010s, when its investments in Europe expanded dramatically. More specifically, there is concern over China’s investments in infrastructure and sensitive technologies relevant to American and allied military operations and capabilities.

Whether …

Contested Deployment, Bert B. Tussing, John Eric Powell, Benjamin C. Leitzel

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

As indicated in the 2018 National Defense Strategy and evolving Multi-Domain Operations doctrine, the assumption the homeland will provide a secure space for mobilization and deployment is no longer valid. This integrated research project goes beyond affirming this assumption and contributes to efforts to mitigate the concerns a contested deployment entails.

Following the introductory chapter, Chapter 2, “Army Deployments in a Contested Homeland: A Framework for Protection,” explores how current coordination and cooperation mechanisms between the DoD and state and local government may need realignment, with civil authorities preparing themselves to support military mobilization. Chapter 3, “Strategic Seaports and National …

The People Of The Pla 2.0, Roy Kamphausen Mr.

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

The 27th annual People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Conference—“The People in the PLA” 2.0—revisited a theme first explored at the 2006 conference but understudied since. This volume examines how the structure, education, training, and recruitment of PLA personnel have changed in the last decade and in the Xi Jinping era.

Structural changes in the PLA have centered around two poles: improving the warfighting readiness of the PLA and strengthening Communist Party of China (CPC) control of the PLA. Reforms to the political work system, the evolution of the Second Artillery into the Rocket Force, and expansion of the PLA’s foreign-based force …

A Whole-Of-Government Approach To Gray Zone Warfare, Elzabeth G. Troeder

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Gray zone warfare has increasingly been the strategy selected by states that are determined to influence change without the risk of major escalation to outright military war. It is a significant concern today, threatening U.S. national security as well as the security of U.S. allies and partners. Although warfare is traditionally led by the Department of Defense (DoD), as the use of gray zone warfare increases and evolves, a whole-of-government approach that incorporates the unique capabilities of Federal departments and agencies for this fight is needed.

Command Decision: Ethical Leadership In The Information Environment, Keir Giles Mr.

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

This monograph considers how a classical challenge that commanders face in war—namely, making critical decisions on the basis of limited and often unreliable information—has been exacerbated in the era of big data. Data overload complicates the intelligence community’s efforts to identify and exclude disinformation, misinformation, and deception, and thus hampers its ability to deliver reliable intelligence to inform decision-makers in a timely manner. The military commander remains responsible for making a final decision, yet the great wealth of data now available through the intelligence cycle amplifies the risk of decision paralysis. With this in mind, technological solutions tend to be …

Radical Islamist English-Language Online Magazines: Research Guide, Strategic Insights, And Policy Response, Robert J. Bunker Dr., Pamela L. Bunnker

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Radical Islamist online magazines first appeared in November 2003 with the publication of Sawt al-Jihad (Voice of Jihad) in Arabic. This magazine discontinued publication in April 2005 after 29 issues, having been shut down by the Saudi security services. The magazine was produced by the Saudi branch of al-Qaeda that later evolved into al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). It called upon other al-Qaeda groups to develop and franchise their own magazines. Besides the plethora of radical Islamist online magazines in Arabic that has been produced since 2003—along with those in many other languages including Urdu, Russian, German, French, and …

Avoiding The Trap: Us Strategy And Policy For Competing In The Asia-Pacific Beyond The Rebalance

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

The pivot to Asia is over, suggested Susan Thornton, Acting Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, on the eve of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s first visit to Asia on March 14, 2017.1 This statement, though expected, begs many questions: Is this just a repeal of the bumper sticker “Strategic Rebalance,” typical of administration change? If so, what is its replacement? Moreover, if this change is just in name but not in substance, will President Donald Trump stay the course? If not, what will be Trump’s policy toward the Asia-Pacific? What should be the new …

Outplayed: Regaining Strategic Initiative In The Gray Zone, A Report Sponsored By The Army Capabilities Integration Center In Coordination With Joint Staff J-39/Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment Branch, Nathan P. Freier, Charles R. Burnett, William J. Cain Jr., Christopher D. Compton, Sean M. Hankard, Robert S. Hume, Gary R. Kramlich Ii, J. Matthew Lissner, Tobin A. Magsig, Daniel E. Mouton, Michael S. Muztafago, John F. Troxell, Dennis G. Wille, James M. Schultze

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

U.S. competitors pursuing meaningful revision or rejection of the current U.S.-led status quo are employing a host of hybrid methods to advance and secure interests contrary to those of the United States. These challengers employ unique combinations of influence, intimidation, coercion, and aggression to incrementally crowd out effective resistance, establish local or regional advantage, and manipulate risk perceptions in their favor. So far, the United States has not come up with a coherent countervailing approach. It is in this “gray zone”—the awkward and uncomfortable space between traditional conceptions of war and peace—where the United States and its defense enterprise face …

Political And Socio-Economic Change: Revolutions And Their Implications For The U.S. Military, John R. Deni

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

Dramatic political, economic, and social changes across both the Greater Middle East and Latin America over the last several years—in some instances revolutionary, in others evolutionary—have had profound implications for global security generally and U.S. security specifically. Policymakers in Washington are hence confronted with the issue of how to respond to the various changes in these disparate regions in order to safeguard U.S. interests, promote Western values, and shape the security environment into the future. Whether and to what degree U.S. policymakers can influence the unfolding changes and shape outcomes remains to be seen. But if Washington is to achieve …

Colloquium Brief: American Society And Its Profession Of Arms, Leonard Wong

Monographs, Collaborative Studies, & IRPs

No abstract provided.