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Full-Text Articles in Economic Policy

Tapping On Growth Opportunities Through Trade And Investment, Andy Feng, Gerald Foong, Geraldine Lim Dec 2021

Tapping On Growth Opportunities Through Trade And Investment, Andy Feng, Gerald Foong, Geraldine Lim

Research Collection School Of Economics

As a small and open economy, external developments play a crucial role in shaping Singapore’s growth prospects. In particular, external demand is pivotal in supporting the growth of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) beyond the limits afforded by a small domestic market. Furthermore, due to the resource constraints faced by Singapore, its production of goods and services to meet both external and domestic demand requires a substantial use of imported inputs. Apart from trade, Singapore’s openness and outward-orientation also extend to its embrace of inward and outward investments to grow its economy and create jobs for Singaporeans. In view of …


The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay Nov 2017

The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We consider three separate notions of uncertainty: general macroeconomic uncertainty (the fact that macroeconomic variables are easier to forecast at some times than at others), policy uncertainty, and forecaster uncertainty. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to overall macroeconomic uncertainty and policy uncertainty, while forecaster uncertainty (which we define as the average in the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters) appears to have little role in forecast dispersion.


Domestic Liquidity Conditions And Monetary Policy In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan Sep 2017

Domestic Liquidity Conditions And Monetary Policy In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore has an unusual exchange rate-centered monetary policy framework that has served the economy well over the past decades. Monetary policy operations are carried out by the central bank through the management of the Singapore dollar against a currency basket. As is well recognized, such foreign exchange interventions do have an impact on domestic liquidity conditions. However, in the case of Singapore, this tends to be counteracted by the liquidity impact of public sector operations related to the fiscal position and the national pension scheme. The central bank takes into account the net liquidity impact these and other autonomous money …


Singapore: Real State Control, Sock Yong Phang Jul 2016

Singapore: Real State Control, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The author explains how the government of Singapore has taken on the role of land use planner and housing developer to ensure affordable housing. Numerous instruments have been devised by governments to provide affordable housing. These can be classified into four broad categories: taxes and subsidies, land use and market regulations, public-private partnerships, and institutions that supply housing or provide financing.


The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran Aug 2015

The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper looks at how government intervention shapes the evolution of the Singapore economy and accounts for its successes and failures over the past 50 years. Compared with other dynamic Asian economies, the Singapore government's approach to intervene in the economy is both more extensive and more intrusive, but with a narrow focus on GDP growth and surplus accumulation as the primary objectives. The ruling government's near complete dominance in politics has enabled it to mobilize resources to create the preconditions for strong GDP growth and high savings. But the impact on the broader development of the economy and the …


Marriage And Child Bearing, Kong Weng Ho Jul 2014

Marriage And Child Bearing, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter considers the impact of existing incentives and policies to encourage marriage and child-birth, and other direct and indirect ways to raise the total fertility rate (TFR).


Policy Responses In An Unstable Globalized Economy: Multi-Stressed Low-Earning Families In Singapore, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho Jul 2013

Policy Responses In An Unstable Globalized Economy: Multi-Stressed Low-Earning Families In Singapore, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore government responded swiftly to the 2008 global recession, doling out a range of policies in aid of all levels of wage earners. This paper explores the impacts of economic trends and government policies on low-wage earners. Using a theoretical model and empirical data from a pilot study of recipients of a government Work Support Program, it demonstrates the effects of socioeconomic factors on multi-stressed low-earning families. It discusses the adequacy of current policies in addressing the multiple stressors experienced by low-wage earners.


Money, Bargaining, And Risk Sharing, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan Sep 2011

Money, Bargaining, And Risk Sharing, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the dual role of money as a self-insurance device and a means of payment when perfect risk sharing is not possible, and when the two roles of money are disentangled. We use a variant of Lagos–Wright (2005) where agents face a risk in the centralized market (CM): in the decentralized market (DM) money’s main role is as a means of payment, while in the CM it is as a self-insurance device. We show that state-contingent inflation rates can improve agents’ ability to self-insure in the CM, thereby improving the terms of trade in the DM. We then characterize …


Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson Jan 2011

Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson

Research Collection School Of Economics

Prior to the crisis the consensus amongst central bankers in advanced economies was that price stability, in the form of low and stable price inflation, was a top priority for monetary policy and could best be achieved by targeting interest rates (usually overnight) or monetary aggregates, such as Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2). Liquidity in the banking system could be flexibly adjusted on a daily basis through open market operations to increase or decrease the monetary base which would be transmitted to the rest of the economy through financial intermediation. Financial markets would then adjust longer-term interest rates …


Estimation Of Bidder Valuations In An Fcc Spectrum Auction, Jungwon Yeo May 2010

Estimation Of Bidder Valuations In An Fcc Spectrum Auction, Jungwon Yeo

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) uses auctions to allocate radio spectrum frequencies to wireless service providers. The innovation of the auction design is that it offers many heterogeneous licenses simultaneously in one ascending auction. This paper develops an empirical model and procedure to estimate bidder valuations. Given that the complex nature of the auction does not admit formal modeling in a general setting, I do not explore a particular model of equilibrium bidding. Instead, I propose two revealed preference inequalities which should hold in any reasonable model of these auctions. The first inequality requires that a bidder never bids on …


Optimal Monetary Policy In A Model With Recursive Preferences, Sungbae An May 2010

Optimal Monetary Policy In A Model With Recursive Preferences, Sungbae An

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a simple and elegance approach for an empirical investigation of a model with Epstein-Zin (1989) preferences. The perturbation method implemented in Dynare is readily applicable for computation of equilibrium and welfare. A stylized new Keynesian economy with sticky prices is analyzed and optimal simple rules are accessed across various types of monetary policy rules.


Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Nicholas Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan Mar 2010

Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Nicholas Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers the form of monetary policy coordination and regional exchange rate arrangement that would best support economic and financial integration in East Asia. In view of the region's economic diversity, we propose a graduated program of informal policy cooperation from weak forms of cooperation to more intensive modes of cooperation such as the adoption of common monetary policy objectives. An array of informal monetary arrangements rooted to the degree of institutional development can improve the effectiveness of both sovereign and regional institutions, and promote integration in East Asia. Drawing upon the European experience with the Exchange Rate Mechanism …


The Optimal Degree Of Reciprocity In Tariff Reduction, Pao Li Chang Feb 2010

The Optimal Degree Of Reciprocity In Tariff Reduction, Pao Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article clari.es the roles played by trade policy, in contrast with iceberg transport cost, in the popular setting of Melitz (2003), and characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in such a setting. I show that import tariffs and iceberg transport cost are not equivalent in the strength of their trade-restricting e¤ects and their welfare implications. With all the con.icting effectsof import tari¤s on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tari¤ reduction turns out to be free trade.


Book Review Of Competition Law And Policy In Singapore, By Cavinder Bull, Lim Chong Kin, Academy Publishing, Singapore, 2009, Sock-Yong Phang Feb 2010

Book Review Of Competition Law And Policy In Singapore, By Cavinder Bull, Lim Chong Kin, Academy Publishing, Singapore, 2009, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.


Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy: Some Implementation Issues, Hwee Kwan Chow Dec 2007

Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy: Some Implementation Issues, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Reflecting the small open nature of its economy, Singapore has adopted an exchange rate-centered monetary policy framework since 1981. The exchange rate regime in Singapore is an intermediate regime that follows the basket-band-crawl system. With this managed float system, the MAS has successfully deterred speculators from attacking the domestic currency for most of the past three decades. At the same time, the flexibility accorded by the managed float system aided Singapore in escaping from the 1997–1998 Asian crisis relatively unscathed. In order to advance our understanding of the hitherto successful operation of Singapore's exchange rate policy, we examine the following …


Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun Jun 2007

Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

Frankel and Wei (1994) developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond the short run. However, despite the high degree of commitment to nominal exchange rate stability prior to the crisis, fluctuations in most East Asian currencies are also significantly influenced by country specific shocks. …


Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho Jun 2007

Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper builds upon Hoon and Phelps (1992, 1997) to ask how much of the evolution of the unemployment rate over several decades in country can be explained by real factors in an equilibrium model of the natural rate where country's productivity growth depends upon its distance from the world's technological leader. One motivating contemporary example includes the evolution of unemployment rates in Europe as it recovered from the second world war and caught up technologically to the US. Another example that may be less familiar to many people is Singapore (the second fastest growing economy from 1960 to 2000 …


Poverty Alleviation Through Geographic Targeting, Chris Elbers, Tomoki Fujii, Peter Lanjouw, Berk Ozler, Wesley Yin May 2007

Poverty Alleviation Through Geographic Targeting, Chris Elbers, Tomoki Fujii, Peter Lanjouw, Berk Ozler, Wesley Yin

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we employ recently completed “poverty maps” for three countries as tools for an ex ante evaluation of the distributional incidence of geographic targeting of public resources. We simulate the impact on poverty of transferring an exogenously given budget to geographically defined sub-groups of the population according to their relative poverty status. We find large gains from targeting smaller administrative units, such as districts or villages. However, these gains are still far from the poverty reduction that would be possible had the planners had access to information on household level income or consumption. Our results indicate that a …


Commune-Level Estimation Of Poverty Measure And Its Application In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii Jan 2006

Commune-Level Estimation Of Poverty Measure And Its Application In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Cambodia is still suffering from the legacy of civil conflict after more than a decade. With over one-third of the population living below the poverty line, poverty remains one of the most serious problems in Cambodia. A number of governmental bodies, local and international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and international organizations operating in Cambodia have made eradicating poverty a priority and have established many social programmes to this end. In designing such programmes, the efficient allocation of resources is essential for making poverty alleviation more cost-effective. Targeting is often helpful for this purpose because one can avoid wasting resources on the …


Competing At The Frontier: The Changing Role Of Technology Policy In Singapore's Economic Strategy, Winston T. H. Koh, Poh Kam Wong Mar 2005

Competing At The Frontier: The Changing Role Of Technology Policy In Singapore's Economic Strategy, Winston T. H. Koh, Poh Kam Wong

Research Collection School Of Economics

For an economy competing at the global frontier, an innovation-based growth strategy requires a well-developed technological infrastructure, a set of capabilities-focused technology policies, as well as an institutional environment that stimulates innovation and entrepreneurship. This paper examines the role played by science and technology policy in an economy's transition to an innovation-based growth strategy. We discuss the challenges governments face as they restructure economic institutions to deepen R&D capabilities and encourage technology creation. We review Singapore's experience in this regard and assess its ongoing efforts to remake itself to compete at the global frontier.


Singapore's Motor Vehicle Policy: Review Of Recent Changes And A Suggested Alternative, Sock Yong Phang Jul 1993

Singapore's Motor Vehicle Policy: Review Of Recent Changes And A Suggested Alternative, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper reviews recent developments in motor vehicle policy in Singapore, viz. the motor vehicle quota and weekend car schemes as well as regulations on cars entering and leaving Singapore. The adoption of a vehicle quota system over and above tax restraints on car ownership has made the job of the planner easier but has resulted in a great deal of price uncertainty in the motor vehicle market. The attendant result of price uncertainty has been speculation or rent seeking, necessitating several adjustments to the rules for the vehicle quota scheme in an attempt to counter speculation. This paper proposes …