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Size And Shape Information Serve As Labels In The Alarm Calls Of Gunnison’S Prairie Dogs Cynomys Gunnisoni, C. N. Slobodchikoff, William R. Briggs, Patricia A. Dennis, Anne-Marie C. Hodge Jun 2016

Size And Shape Information Serve As Labels In The Alarm Calls Of Gunnison’S Prairie Dogs Cynomys Gunnisoni, C. N. Slobodchikoff, William R. Briggs, Patricia A. Dennis, Anne-Marie C. Hodge

Con Slobodchikoff, PhD

Some animals have the capacity to produce different alarm calls for terrestrial and aerial predators. However, it is not clear what cognitive processes are involved in generating these calls. One possibility is the position of the predator: Anything on the ground receives a terrestrial predator call, and anything in the air receives an aerial predator call. Another possibility is that animals are able to recognize the physical features of predators and incorporate those into their calls. As a way of elucidating which of these mechanisms plays a primary role in generating the structure of different calls, we performed two field …


Qualitative Behavioural Assessment Of The Motivation For Feed In Sheep In Response To Altered Body Condition Score, C. A. Stockman, T. Collins, A. L. Barnes, D. Miller, S. L. Wickham, E. Verbeek, L. Matthews, D. Ferguson, F. Wemelsfelder, P. A. Fleming Jun 2016

Qualitative Behavioural Assessment Of The Motivation For Feed In Sheep In Response To Altered Body Condition Score, C. A. Stockman, T. Collins, A. L. Barnes, D. Miller, S. L. Wickham, E. Verbeek, L. Matthews, D. Ferguson, F. Wemelsfelder, P. A. Fleming

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

Qualitative behavioural assessment (QBA) has been used to quantify the expressive behaviour of animals, and operant tests have been used to quantify measures of behavioural need. In this study we compared measures of behavioural expression and behaviour in operant tests. We examined the behavioural expression of pregnant ewes of body condition score (BCS) 2 and 3. The ewes were exposed to a feed motivation test in which they received a food reward. Pregnant ewes (48–70 days gestation) were assessed during a food motivation test after they had been maintained at BCS 3 (n = 7) or given a decreasing plane …


The Scientific Validity Of Subjective Concepts In Models Of Animal Welfare, Françoise Wemelsfelder Jun 2016

The Scientific Validity Of Subjective Concepts In Models Of Animal Welfare, Françoise Wemelsfelder

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

This paper takes a closer look at the subjectivity/objectivity relationship, as it plays a role in the science of animal welfare. It argues that subjective, experiential states in animals such as well-being and suffering are, contrary to what is often assumed, open to empirical observation and scientific assessment. The presumably purely private, inaccessible nature of such states is not an inherent property of these states, but derives from their misguided conception as ‘causal objects’ in mechanistic models of behaviour. This inevitably endows subjective experience with a ‘hidden’ status. However, subjective experience should be approached on its own conceptual grounds, i.e. …


Inter-Observer Reliability Of Qualitative Behavioural Assessments Of Sheep, Clare Phythian, Eleni Michalopoulou, Jennifer Duncan, Françoise Wemelsfelder Jun 2016

Inter-Observer Reliability Of Qualitative Behavioural Assessments Of Sheep, Clare Phythian, Eleni Michalopoulou, Jennifer Duncan, Françoise Wemelsfelder

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

Qualitative Behaviour Assessment (QBA) is whole-animal methodology that assesses the expressive qualities of animal demeanour using descriptors such as ‘relaxed’, ‘anxious’ or ‘content’. This study aimed to examine the inter-observer reliability of 12 fixed-list QBA descriptors for sheep that had been generated in a previous Free-Choice Profiling study by experienced animal welfare inspectors, based on the same video footage used in the current study. The 12 QBA terms were scored by two different assessor groups consisting of two veterinary science students and four veterinary surgeons (Group 1), and seven farm assurance inspectors (Group 2). The two assessor groups met and …


The Qualitative Assessment Of Responsiveness To Environmental Challenge In Horses And Ponies, Fabio Napolitano, Giuseppe De Rosa, Ada Braghieri, Fernando Grasso, Aldo Bordi, Françoise Wemelsfelder Jun 2016

The Qualitative Assessment Of Responsiveness To Environmental Challenge In Horses And Ponies, Fabio Napolitano, Giuseppe De Rosa, Ada Braghieri, Fernando Grasso, Aldo Bordi, Françoise Wemelsfelder

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

The responsiveness of 10 horses and 10 ponies to environmental challenge (represented by an open field test) was assessed using a qualitative approach based on free choice profiling methodology (FCP), which gives observers complete freedom to choose their own descriptive terms. Data were analysed with generalised Procrustes analysis (GPA), a multivariate statistical technique associated with FCP. A cross-validation of the outcomes of this approach to data recorded through quantitative behaviour analysis, and through a questionnaire given to the animals’ owner/riding instructor, was also performed using principal component analysis (PCA). Twelve undergraduate students generated their own descriptive vocabularies, by watching 20 …


Qualitative Behavioural Assessment And Quantitative Physiological Measurement Of Cattle Naïve And Habituated To Road Transport, C. A. Stockman, T. Collins, A. L. Barnes, D. Miller, S. L. Wickham, D. T. Beatty, D. Blache, F. Wemelsfelder, P. A. Fleming Jun 2016

Qualitative Behavioural Assessment And Quantitative Physiological Measurement Of Cattle Naïve And Habituated To Road Transport, C. A. Stockman, T. Collins, A. L. Barnes, D. Miller, S. L. Wickham, D. T. Beatty, D. Blache, F. Wemelsfelder, P. A. Fleming

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

The present study examined whether observers could distinguish between cattle that are naïve to road transport and the same cattle after becoming more habituated to transport. The behavioural expression of cattle was assessed through the method of qualitative behavioural assessment (QBA), and these assessments were correlated with various physiological parameters. Fourteen Angus steers were assessed during their first road trip and then again on their ninth trip, 15 days later. Blood samples were collected immediately before and after transport, and heart rate and core body temperature were measured continuously throughout each trip. Video footage recorded during each trip was edited …


How Animals Communicate Quality Of Life: The Qualitative Assessment Of Behaviour, F. Wemelsfelder Jun 2016

How Animals Communicate Quality Of Life: The Qualitative Assessment Of Behaviour, F. Wemelsfelder

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

The notion ‘quality of life’ (QoL) suggests that welfare in animals encompasses more than just an absence of suffering; it concerns the quality of an animal’s entire relationship with its environment, of how it lives its life. Judgements of such quality are based on the integration of perceived details of how animals behave over time in different contexts. The scientific status of such judgements has long been ambiguous, but in recent decades has begun to be addressed by animal scientists. This paper starts with a brief review of qualitative approaches to the study of animal behaviour, which tend to address …


Life In Captivity: Its Lack Of Opportunities For Variable Behaviour, Françoise Wemelsfelder Jun 2016

Life In Captivity: Its Lack Of Opportunities For Variable Behaviour, Françoise Wemelsfelder

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

No abstract provided.


Welfare Assessment: Correlations And Integration Between A Qualitative Behavioural Assessment And A Clinical/Health Protocol Applied In Veal Calves Farms, Marta Brscic, Françoise Wemelsfelder, Elena Tessitore, Flaviana Gottardo, Giulio Cozzi, Cornelis G. Van Reenen Jun 2016

Welfare Assessment: Correlations And Integration Between A Qualitative Behavioural Assessment And A Clinical/Health Protocol Applied In Veal Calves Farms, Marta Brscic, Françoise Wemelsfelder, Elena Tessitore, Flaviana Gottardo, Giulio Cozzi, Cornelis G. Van Reenen

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

This study is aimed at finding correlations and possible integration among Qualitative Behavioural assessment (QBA) and a specific protocol of clinical/health evaluation. Both welfare assessment methods were based on direct animal observation and were applied in 24 Italian veal calves farms at 3 weeks (wks) of rearing. Principal component analysis (PCA) summarized 20 QBA descriptors on two main components (PC1 and PC2) with eigenvalues above 4 and explaining 29.6 and 20.3% of the variation respectively. PCA on residuals obtained after correcting for housing condition yielded highly similar results, indicating that the rearing environment of the calves was not an important …


Assessing The ‘Whole Animal’: A Free Choice Profiling Approach, Françoise Wemelsfelder, Tony E.A. Hunter, Michael T. Mendl, Alistair B. Lawrence Jun 2016

Assessing The ‘Whole Animal’: A Free Choice Profiling Approach, Françoise Wemelsfelder, Tony E.A. Hunter, Michael T. Mendl, Alistair B. Lawrence

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

The qualitative assessment of animal behaviour summarizes the different aspects of an animal’s dynamic style of interaction with the environment, using descriptors such as ‘confident’, ‘nervous’, ‘calm’ or ‘excitable’. Scientists frequently use such terms in studies of animal personality and temperament, but, wary of anthropomorphism, are reluctant to do so in studies of animal welfare. We hypothesize that qualitative behaviour assessment, in describing behaviour as an expressive process, may have a stronger observational foundation than is currently recognized, and may be of use as an integrative welfare assessment tool. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the inter- and intraobserver reliability …


Applying Ethological And Health Indicators To Practical Animal Welfare Assessment, F. Wemelsfelder, S. Mullan Jun 2016

Applying Ethological And Health Indicators To Practical Animal Welfare Assessment, F. Wemelsfelder, S. Mullan

Françoise Wemelsfelder, PhD

There is a growing effort worldwide to develop objective indicators for animal welfare assessment, which provide information on an animal’s quality of life, are scientifically trustworthy, and can readily be used in practice by professionals. Animals are sentient beings capable of positive and negative emotion, and so these indicators should be sensitive not only to their physical health, but also to their experience of the conditions in which they live. This paper provides an outline of ethological research aimed at developing practical welfare assessment protocols. The first section focuses on the development and validation of welfare indicators generally, in terms …


Recognition Of Distress In Animals – A Philosophical Prolegomenon, Bernard E. Rollin Jun 2016

Recognition Of Distress In Animals – A Philosophical Prolegomenon, Bernard E. Rollin

Bernard Rollin, PhD

For those who continue to doubt the studiability of distress or suffering or misery in all of its forms in animals, consider the following thought experiment: If the government were to come up with a billion dollars in research funding for animal distress, would that money go a-begging? We can study these states just as we studied pain—excellent work on boredom by Franciose Wemelsfelder in a volume on laboratory animal welfare I co-edited made the methodology for such study quite explicit. (Wemelsfelder, 1990) And when the ideological scales fall from our eyes, we realize that the work of scientists like …


Animal Pain: What It Is And Why It Matters, Bernard E. Rollin Jun 2016

Animal Pain: What It Is And Why It Matters, Bernard E. Rollin

Bernard Rollin, PhD

The basis of having a direct moral obligation to an entity is that what we do to that entity matters to it. The ability to experience pain is a sufficient condition for a being to be morally considerable. But the ability to feel pain is not a necessary condition for moral considerability. Organisms could have possibly evolved so as to be motivated to flee danger or injury or to eat or drink not by pain, but by ‘‘pangs of pleasure’’ that increase as one fills the relevant need or escapes the harm. In such a world, ‘‘mattering’’ would be positive, …


A Comparison Of Spatial Learning And Memory Capabilities In Intertidal Gobies, Gemma E. White, Culum Brown May 2016

A Comparison Of Spatial Learning And Memory Capabilities In Intertidal Gobies, Gemma E. White, Culum Brown

Culum Brown, PhD

For the majority of animals, the ability to orient in familiar locations is a fundamental part of life, and spatial memory allows individuals to remember key locations such as food patches, shelter, mating sites or areas regularly occupied by predators. This study determined if gobies collected from rocky platforms and sandy beaches differ in their ability to learn and memorise the locations of tide pools in a simulated rocky intertidal zone. Intertidal rock pool gobies show acute homing abilities and, therefore, should be expected to display superior learning and memory capabilities. In contrast, it is unlikely that natural selection would …


Personality Affects Learning And Trade-Offs Between Private And Social Information In Guppies, Poecilia Reticulate, Larissa Trompf, Culum Brown May 2016

Personality Affects Learning And Trade-Offs Between Private And Social Information In Guppies, Poecilia Reticulate, Larissa Trompf, Culum Brown

Culum Brown, PhD

The acquisition of information such as the location and quality of food, mates or shelter is a key survival requirement for animals. Individuals can acquire information through personal experience (private information) or through observing and interacting with others (social information). Environmental spatial and temporal heterogeneity can mean that sometimes social information conflicts with private knowledge. We tested how personality affected the importance placed on public versus private information in wild female guppies when these two information sources came into conflict. We found that boldness and sociality affected decisions to use conflicting social and private information. Bolder females used social information …


Learning And Memory In The Port Jackson Shark, Heterodontus Portusjacksoni, Tristan L. Guttridge, Culum Brown May 2016

Learning And Memory In The Port Jackson Shark, Heterodontus Portusjacksoni, Tristan L. Guttridge, Culum Brown

Culum Brown, PhD

Basic understanding of the fundamental principles and mechanisms involved in learning is lacking for elasmobranch fishes. Our aim in this study was to experimentally investigate the learning and memory capacity of juvenile Port Jackson sharks, Heterodontus portusjacksoni. Sharks (N = 30) were conditioned over a 19-day period to associate an underwater LED light or stream of air-bubbles [conditioned stimulus (CS)] with a food reward [unconditioned stimulus (US)], using three procedures (delay, trace and control). During experiments, the CS signalled at a random time between 180 and 300 s for 30 s (six times per day). For the delay the US …


Fish Intelligence, Sentience And Ethics, Culum Brown May 2016

Fish Intelligence, Sentience And Ethics, Culum Brown

Culum Brown, PhD

Fish are one of the most highly utilised vertebrate taxa by humans; they are harvested from wild stocks as part of global fishing industries, grown under intensive aquaculture conditions, are the most common pet and are widely used for scientific research. But fish are seldom afforded the same level of compassion or welfare as warm-blooded vertebrates. Part of the problem is the large gap between people’s perception of fish intelligence and the scientific reality. This is an important issue because public perception guides government policy. The perception of an animal’s intelligence often drives our decision whether or not to include …


Laterality Is Linked To Personality In The Black-Lined Rainbowfish, Melanotaenia Nigrans, Culum Brown, Anne-Laurence Bibost May 2016

Laterality Is Linked To Personality In The Black-Lined Rainbowfish, Melanotaenia Nigrans, Culum Brown, Anne-Laurence Bibost

Culum Brown, PhD

Emotions such as fear in vertebrates are often strongly lateralised, that is, a single cerebral hemisphere tends to be dominant when processing emotive stimuli. Boldness is a measure of an individual’s propensity to take risks and it has obvious connections with fear responses. Given the emotive nature of this well-studied personality trait, there is good reason to suspect that it is also likely to be expressed in a single hemisphere. Here, we examined the link between laterality and boldness in wild and captive-reared rainbowfish, Melanotaenia nigrans. We found that fish from the wild were bolder than those from captivity, which …


Laterality Influences Cognitive Performance In Rainbowfish Melanotaenia Duboulayi, Anne-Laurence Bibost, Culum Brown May 2016

Laterality Influences Cognitive Performance In Rainbowfish Melanotaenia Duboulayi, Anne-Laurence Bibost, Culum Brown

Culum Brown, PhD

Cerebral lateralization has been suggested to convey a selective advantage to individuals by enhancing their cognitive abilities. Few, however, have explicitly compared the cognitive ability of animals with strongly contrasting laterality. Here, we examined the influence of laterality on learning performance in the crimson spotted rainbowfish, Melanotaenia duboulayi, using a classical conditioning paradigm. We also compared the learning ability of wild caught and captive-reared fish to examine the influence of rearing environment on cognitive performance. Laterality was established by observing which eye fish preferred to use while viewing their mirror image. Subjects were then conditioned to associate the appearance of …


Cue Choice And Spatial Learning Ability Are Affected By Habitat Complexity In Intertidal Gobies, Gemma E. White, Culum Brown May 2016

Cue Choice And Spatial Learning Ability Are Affected By Habitat Complexity In Intertidal Gobies, Gemma E. White, Culum Brown

Culum Brown, PhD

Variation in the structural complexity of a habitat is known to have significant affects on the evolution of different populations and can shape behavior, morphology, and life-history traits. Here, we investigated whether habitat complexity influences a species’ capacity for spatial learning and cue choice by comparing the performance of 4 goby species from 2 contrasting habitats in a spatial task. Gobies were collected from dynamic, homogenous sandy shores and stable, spatially complex rock pool habitats. We trained fish to use a T-maze to find a hidden reward and asked whether they used local visual landmarks or body-centered methods for orientation …


Pain In Aquatic Animals, Lynne U. Sneddon Aug 2015

Pain In Aquatic Animals, Lynne U. Sneddon

Lynne Sneddon, PhD

Recent developments in the study of pain in animals have demonstrated the potential for pain perception in a variety of wholly aquatic species such as molluscs, crustaceans and fish. This allows us to gain insight into how the ecological pressures and differential life history of living in a watery medium can yield novel data that inform the comparative physiology and evolution of pain. Nociception is the simple detection of potentially painful stimuli usually accompanied by a reflex withdrawal response, and nociceptors have been found in aquatic invertebrates such as the sea slug Aplysia. It would seem adaptive to have a …


What Do Zebrafish Want? Impact Of Social Grouping, Dominance And Gender On Preference For Enrichment, Paul Schroeder, Soffia Jones, Iain S. Young, Lynne U. Sneddon Aug 2015

What Do Zebrafish Want? Impact Of Social Grouping, Dominance And Gender On Preference For Enrichment, Paul Schroeder, Soffia Jones, Iain S. Young, Lynne U. Sneddon

Lynne Sneddon, PhD

Although environmental enrichment is known to improve laboratory rodent wellbeing and enhance scientific data collection, relatively little is known with regards to the type of enrichment that might be useful for zebrafish (Danio rerio). Therefore, this study explored if zebrafish displayed preferences for a range of enrichments, including substrates, artificial plants, combinations thereof and airstones. Tanks divided into two compartments containing different enrichment cues were used to determine the preferences of zebrafish housed in pairs and groups of eight. When comparing time spent in enriched versus barren compartments, dominant individuals in a pair displayed a preference for substrate and behaviourally …


Pain Perception In Fish: Evidence And Implications For The Use Of Fish, Lynne U. Sneddon Aug 2015

Pain Perception In Fish: Evidence And Implications For The Use Of Fish, Lynne U. Sneddon

Lynne Sneddon, PhD

Pain assessment in fish is particularly challenging due to their evolutionary distance from humans, their lack of audible vocalization, and apparently expressionless demeanour. However, there are criteria that can be used to gauge whether pain perception occurs using carefully executed scientific approaches. Here, the standards for pain in fish are discussed and can be considered in three ways: neural detection and processing of pain; adverse responses to pain; and consciously experiencing pain. Many procedures that we subject fish to cause tissue damage and may give rise to the sensation of pain. Fish are popular as pets, in animal exhibits, and …


Environmental Change Alters Personality In The Rainbow Trout, Oncorhynchus Mykiss, Ashley J. Frost, Jack S. Thomson, Charlotte Smith, Hannah C. Burton, Ben Davis, Phillip C. Watts, Lynne U. Sneddon Aug 2015

Environmental Change Alters Personality In The Rainbow Trout, Oncorhynchus Mykiss, Ashley J. Frost, Jack S. Thomson, Charlotte Smith, Hannah C. Burton, Ben Davis, Phillip C. Watts, Lynne U. Sneddon

Lynne Sneddon, PhD

Boldness is a personality trait that defines how individuals respond to risky situations and has clear fitness consequences. Since the adaptive value of boldness is context dependent, the benefit of a distinct personality is less clear when the environment is unpredictable. An ability to modulate behaviour can be beneficial, although as behavioural plasticity itself may be costly this depends on the levels of environmental stability. Both boldness and its plasticity are linked with physiological stress coping mechanisms, whereby animals with reduced glucocorticoid responses to stress are bolder and less flexible in behaviour. We investigated the behavioural changes made by bold …


Plasticity Of Boldness In Rainbow Trout, Oncorhynchus Mykiss: Do Hunger And Predation Influence Risk-Taking Behaviour?, Jack S. Thomson, Phillip C. Watts, Tom G. Pottinger, Lynne U. Sneddon Jul 2015

Plasticity Of Boldness In Rainbow Trout, Oncorhynchus Mykiss: Do Hunger And Predation Influence Risk-Taking Behaviour?, Jack S. Thomson, Phillip C. Watts, Tom G. Pottinger, Lynne U. Sneddon

Lynne U. Sneddon, Ph.D.

Boldness, a measure of an individual's propensity for taking risks, is an important determinant of fitness but is not necessarily a fixed trait. Dependent upon an individual's state, and given certain contexts or challenges, individuals may be able to alter their inclination to be bold or shy in response. Furthermore, the degree to which individuals can modulate their behaviour has been linked with physiological responses to stress. Here we attempted to determine whether bold and shy rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, can exhibit behavioural plasticity in response to changes in state (nutritional availability) and context (predation threat). Individual trout were initially …


Thinking Pigs: A Comparative Review Of Cognition, Emotion, And Personality In Sus Domesticus, Lori Marino, Christina M. Colvin Jul 2015

Thinking Pigs: A Comparative Review Of Cognition, Emotion, And Personality In Sus Domesticus, Lori Marino, Christina M. Colvin

Lori Marino, PhD

While relatively little is known about the psychology of domestic pigs, what is known suggests that pigs are cognitively complex and share many traits with animals whom we consider intelligent. This paper reviews the scientific evidence for cognitive complexity in domestic pigs and, when appropriate, compares this literature with similar findings in other animals, focusing on some of the more compelling and cutting-edge research results. The goals of this paper are to: 1) frame pig cognition and psychology in a basic comparative context independent of the livestock production and management setting; and 2) identify areas of research with pigs that …


Defining And Assessing Animal Pain, Lynne U. Sneddon, Robert W. Elwood, Shelley A. Adamo, Matthew C. Leach Jun 2015

Defining And Assessing Animal Pain, Lynne U. Sneddon, Robert W. Elwood, Shelley A. Adamo, Matthew C. Leach

Lynne Sneddon, PhD

The detection and assessment of pain in animals is crucial to improving their welfare in a variety of contexts in which humans are ethically or legally bound to do so. Thus clear standards to judge whether pain is likely to occur in any animal species is vital to inform whether to alleviate pain or to drive the refinement of procedures to reduce invasiveness, thereby minimizing pain. We define two key concepts that can be used to evaluate the potential for pain in both invertebrate and vertebrate taxa. First, responses to noxious, potentially painful events should affect neurobiology, physiology and behaviour …


Pantomime In Great Apes: Evidence And Implications, Ann E. Russon, Kristin Andrews Apr 2015

Pantomime In Great Apes: Evidence And Implications, Ann E. Russon, Kristin Andrews

Kristin Andrews, PhD

We recently demonstrated, by mining observational data, that forest-living orangutans can communicate using gestures that qualify as Pantomime. Pantomimes, like other iconic gestures, physically resemble their referents. More elaborately, pantomimes involve enacting their referents. Holding thumb and finger together at the lips and blowing between them to mean balloon is one example. Here we sketch evidence of pantomime in other great apes, methodological concerns, and sophisticated cognitive capabilities that great ape pantomimes suggest.


Politics Or Metaphysics? On Attributing Psychological Properties To Animals, Kristin Andrews Apr 2015

Politics Or Metaphysics? On Attributing Psychological Properties To Animals, Kristin Andrews

Kristin Andrews, PhD

Following recent arguments that there is no logical problem with attributing mental or agential states to animals, I address the epistemological problem of how to go about making accurate attributions. I suggest that there is a two-part general method for determining whether a psychological property can be accurately attributed to a member of another species: folk expert opinion and functionality. This method is based on well-known assessments used to attribute mental states to humans who are unable to self-ascribe due to an early stage of development or impairment, and can be used to describe social and emotional development as well …


It's In Your Nature: A Pluralistic Folk Psychology, Kristin Andrews Apr 2015

It's In Your Nature: A Pluralistic Folk Psychology, Kristin Andrews

Kristin Andrews, PhD

I suggest a pluralistic account of folk psychology according to which not all predictions or explanations rely on the attribution of mental states, and not all intentional actions are explained by mental states. This view of folk psychology is supported by research in developmental and social psychology. It is well known that people use personality traits to predict behavior. I argue that trait attribution is not shorthand for mental state attributions, since traits are not identical to beliefs or desires, and an understanding of belief or desire is not necessary for using trait attributions. In addition, we sometimes predict and …