Models and Methods Commons^™

Complex Dynamics Of Contention: Towards A Generative Model Of Social Dissent, Travis Holmes

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

In 2003, McAdam et al. released their seminal work Dynamics of Contention as a challenge to scholars within the field of contentious politics. In it, they claimed that the field required a refocusing from static and topical arguments splintered into various disciplines, to a more unified research agenda in search of causal mechanisms. In the spirit of their work, this study seeks to revisit this original critique considering more recent scholarship in the fields of Complexity and Systems Sciences along with certain technological advances in the field of computational social science, namely, the Agent-Based Model (ABM). In addition, both computational …

A Model Of Build Back Better Utilization: Long-Term Recovery Groups And Post-Disaster Housing Recovery, Eduardo Landaeta, Jesse Richman

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Housing recovery, especially for vulnerable populations, can be a challenging process. Questions regarding whether to rebuild damaged housing and whether to restore it to its previous state or to build back better must be answered. In the United States, Long-Term Recovery Groups (LTRGs) play a crucial role in channeling assistance to vulnerable community members as they embark on housing recovery. However, the experiences of LTRGs have been understudied. To address this gap, the study utilizes interviews with a diverse range of LTRG members and develops an agent-based model following the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol. The results highlight …

Assessing Spurious Correlations In Big Search Data, Jesse T. Richman, Ryan J. Roberts

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Big search data offers the opportunity to identify new and potentially real-time measures and predictors of important political, geographic, social, cultural, economic, and epidemiological phenomena, measures that might serve an important role as leading indicators in forecasts and nowcasts. However, it also presents vast new risks that scientists or the public will identify meaningless and totally spurious ‘relationships’ between variables. This study is the first to quantify that risk in the context of search data. We find that spurious correlations arise at exceptionally high frequencies among probability distributions examined for random variables based upon gamma (1, 1) and Gaussian random …

Emergence Of A Norm From Resistance: Using Simulation To Explore The Macro Implications Of Social Identity Theory, Khadijeh Salimi, Jesse T. Richman, Regina Karp, George P. Richardson, David Anderson

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

We usually hope that social norms discourage injustice. However, we are all witnesses to harmful norms enforced by governments, such as xenophobia, which need to be contested and changed. Previous studies have concluded that it is possible to change a harmful norm through contestation by powerless actors if suitable structural conditions exist. However, these structural conditions have not been sufficiently studied and, as such, are the focus of this paper. Our paper begins with a review of well-established micro-level theories of social identity theory (SIT), recast as a set of 42 discrete theoretical statements. These statements are then re-expressed in …

A Gamefied Synthetic Environment For Evaluation Of Counter-Disinformation Solutions, Jesse Richman, Lora Pitman, Girish S. Nandakumar

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This paper presents a simulation-based approach to countering online dis/misinformation. This disruptive technology experiment incorporated a synthetic environment component, based on adapted SIR epidemiological model to evaluate and visualize the effectiveness of suggested solutions to the issue. The participants in the simulation were given a realistic scenario depicting a dis/misinformation threat and were asked to select a number of solutions, described in IoS (Ideas-of-Systems) cards. During the event, the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the IoS cards, were tested in a synthetic environment (SEN), built after a Susceptible-Infected-Resistant (SIR) model. The participants, divided into teams, presented and justified their dis/misinformation …

Dynamic Modeling Of Inland Flooding And Storm Surge On Coastal Cities Under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts In Norfolk, Virginia Usa As A Case Study, Yawen Shen, Navid Tahvildari, Mohamed M. Morsy, Chris Huxley, T. Donna Chen, Jonathan Lee Goodall

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable …

State Antifragility: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach To Understanding State Behavior, Rebecca Lee Law

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding what makes states antifragile and why this matters by constructing a parsimonious, first of its kind agent-based model. The model focuses on the key elements of state antifragility that reside along a spectrum of fragility and transverse bidirectionally from fragile to resilient to antifragile given a certain set of environmental conditions.

First coined by Nicholas Nassim Taleb and applied to economics, antifragility is a nascent concept. In 2015, Nassim Taleb and Gregory Treverton’s article in Foreign Affairs outlined five characteristics of state antifragility. This project aims to advance the study of anti-fragility …

A Global Ecological Classification Of Coastal Segment Units To Complement Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Assessments, Roger Sayre, Kevin Butler, Keith Van Graafeiland, Sean Breyer, Dawn Wright, Charlie Frye, Deniz Karagulle, Madeline Martin, Jill Cress, Tom Allen, Rebecca J. Allee, Rost Parsons, Bjorn Nyberg, Mark J. Costello, Peter Harris, Frank E. Muller-Karger

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

A new data layer provides Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) labels for global coastal segments at 1 km or shorter resolution. These characteristics are summarized for six US Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) sites and one MBON Pole to Pole of the Americas site in Argentina. The global coastlines CMECS classifications were produced from a partitioning of a 30 m Landsat-derived shoreline vector that was segmented into 4 million 1 km or shorter segments. Each segment was attributed with values from 10 variables that represent the ecological settings in which the coastline occurs, including properties of the adjacent …

Noise: A Flaw In Human Judgment. [Book Review], Michael Cohen

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Agent-Based Modelling Of Values: The Case Of Value Sensitive Design For Refugee Logistics, Christine Boshuijzen-Van Burken, Ross J. Gore, Frank Dignum, Lamber Royakkers, Phillip Wozny, F. Leron Shults

VMASC Publications

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz’s theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform …

The Messy Nuclear Landscape: Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping To Explore Plausible Nuclear Disarmament Scenarios, Ryan M. Nixon

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Nuclear weapons are seemingly permanent fixtures in international relations. Although nuclear abolitionists and actors within the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have taken significant steps towards designing a world without nuclear weapons, the longstanding realist logic that suggests nuclear disarmament is nonviable has born more fruit. On the other hand, some proponents of realism have suggested global nuclear disarmament is feasible, given that certain international instabilities are stabilized and that special care is taken during diplomatic negotiations. This presents an opportunity to test these predictions using fuzzy cognitive mapping, a computational modeling technique that identifies …

A Pca-Ols Model For Assessing The Impact Of Surface Biophysical Parameters On Land Surface Temperature Variations, Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei, Seyed Kazem Alavipanah, Hua Liu, Amir Sedighi, Naeim Mijani, Majid Kiavarz, Qihao Weng

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Analysis of land surface temperature (LST) spatiotemporal variations and characterization of the factors affecting these variations are of great importance in various environmental studies and applications. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated model for characterizing LST spatiotemporal variations and for assessing the impact of surface biophysical parameters on the LST variations. For this purpose, a case study was conducted in Babol City, Iran, during the period of 1985 to 2018. We used 122 images of Landsat 5, 7, and 8, and products of water vapor (MOD07) and daily LST (MOD11A1) from the MODIS sensor of the …

Forecasting Changes In Religiosity And Existential Security With An Agent-Based Model, Ross J. Gore, Carlos Lemos, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) …

Shaping American Foreign Policy A Game Theoretic Analysis Of The United States'--North Korean Relationship, Kimberly Michelle Ganczak

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Over the past two decades, international relations researchers have developed increasingly nuanced game theoretic models to analyze interstate interactions. This study is a modem, case-specific Bayesian analysis that aims to make contributions to the scholarly analysis of conflict while offering practical advice to policymakers interested in relations between the United States and North Korea.

This study develops a new model of United States - North Korea relations in order to develop insights useful for understanding and hopefully refining, management of this relationship. This study utilizes the extensive form of a signaling game to model the interactions between both states. This …

Analyzing The Effects Of Policy Options To Mitigate The Effect Of Sea Level Rise On The Public Health And Medically Fragile Population: A System Dynamics Approach, Rafael Diaz, Joshua Behr, Anna Jeng, Hua Liu, Franceso Longo

VMASC Publications

A critical question related to climate change concerns to how rising sea level will affect underserved populations and medically fragile population in coastal zones and floodplains. As sea levels rise, coastal waters will regain near-tidal areas and co-mingle with human-made pollutants, resulting from decades of industrial and commercial activity. This poses potential threat and risks to public health and the environment. It is critical that decision makers will initiate a process of parsing resources to the mitigation and management of these issues. The purpose of this research is to model the inherent dynamics of this process and understand how near-term …

Political Violence And Conflict Resolution: The Struggle For Peace In Northern Ireland, Lisa G. Fox

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Political violence, especially in ethnoreligious conflicts, continues to threaten the stability and security of the international environment. Motivations for using violence are complex and can evolve over time. As long as one or more of the motivations continue to exist, parties to a conflict will feel that violence is a legitimate course of action and, thus, the conflict will persist.

Theories about the causes of conflict and the approaches that should be taken to terminate it mostly propose a single approach. A single approach, however, will address certain issues while leaving others unresolved, allowing some motivations to continue stimulating conflict. …

The Guaranteed Minimum Price And Price Stabilization In The Wheat Market, Therese L. Soullier

Economics Theses & Dissertations

The government of the United States offers a guaranteed minimum price per bushel to farmers in return for a reduction in acreage planted. Through this program, the government attempts to control the supply of wheat and stabilize the price of wheat. There is growing debate in the United States as to the effectiveness and prudence of the current program.

This thesis will examine the effectiveness of the guaranteed minimum price program, using the two-stage least squares procedure to examine a demand and supply model. The study will look at the relative stability of the price of wheat and how and …

Core Size, Pricing, And Cost Structure, William K. Edwards

Economics Theses & Dissertations

This thesis presents a proof of an inverse limit theorem of the core of an economy. The implication of the theorem is that a larger core can be obtained by the formation of coalitions. A large core contains multiple Pareto optimal allocations from which society may select in order to maximize its welfare. Furthermore, this paper places an emphasis on pricing schemes that guarantee a core allocation under increasing returns to scale. Two pricing models are introduced that guarantee a non-empty core under increasing returns to scale.