Public Economics Commons^™

Will It Be A Tough Year?, Daniel D. Selby, W. Darrell Walden

Accounting Faculty Publications

While there may be some glimmers of hope about a turnaround to the U.S. economy, such as decreasing unemployment, Virginia CPAs aren't betting on a huge recovery in the next year.

The second annual VSCPA Economic Outlook Survey reveals Virginia CPAs are more pessimistic about the United States and Virginia economies than they were last year, but they are actually more optimistic about Virginia's economy compared to the United States as a whole. Likewise, VSCPA members continue to feel good about the economic outlook in Virginia relative to neighboring states.

Real-Time Forecasting, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This chapter will discuss real-time forecasting in a macroeconomic policy context. I will begin by talking about the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a survey of private-sector forecasters. Next, I will discuss research on real-time data analysis and its importance in forecasting. Finally, I will discuss real-time forecasting in the 1990s.

Philadelphia Fed Forecasting Surveys: Their Value For Research, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has conducted both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey for 20 years. Both surveys of private-sector forecasters provide researchers, central bankers, news media, and the public with detailed forecasts of major macroeconomic variables. The surveys have proved helpful for people who are planning for the future, and they have also provided useful input into the decisions of policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. In this article, Dean Croushore provides an overview of the surveys and discusses the ways in which researchers have used the surveys.

An Alternative Strategy For Building Sales Of Computers: Generic Advertising, Min Lu, Steven M. Thompson, Yanbin Tu

Management Faculty Publications

Frequent upgrading and aggressive price-cutting have become standard practice in the computer sector. While necessitated in part by declining production costs and a highly competitive market, these strategies have also served to make computers more affordable, growing the size of the overall market. Recently downturns in the sales of computers motivate us to examine the impact of these strategies on overall sales growth. We find evidence to suggest that excessive upgrading and overly aggressive price-cutting can be detrimental to overall sales growth. We also find that the computer sector exhibits characteristics that suggest that generic advertising would be an effective …

Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data …

On The "Bitter Quarrel" Between Economics And Its Enemies, Sandra J. Peart

Jepson School of Leadership Studies articles, book chapters and other publications

Economics has long had its enemies. The question is, why? What, precisely, is it about economics that its critics oppose? William Coleman seeks to tell the story of «anti-economics», «to take its measure» (p. 3), and then finally to defend economics from these attacks. His is a broad, sweeping study that uses a wide lens, panoramically over time, to survey the opposition. The crisis in economics, edited by Edward Fullbrook, provides us instead with a detailed snapshot of a recent sort of anti-economics - the Post-Autistic Economics (PAE) movement that originated among French economics students in 2000. Both serve to …

U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Although the government annually produces about 70 new coins for every man, woman, and child, the economy’s need for coins can vary from year to year. So how do the U.S. Mint, which makes the coins, and the Federal Reserve, which distributes them, decide how many coins the economy needs? Dean Croushore highlights some facts about coins and describes how demand for change is forecast.

How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational.

Low Inflation: The Surprise Of The 1990s, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

For most of the 1990s, forecasters have been predicting an upturn in inflation. Yet, over that same period, the United States has experienced stable or declining inflation. Why have forecasts been at odds with reality? And why does it matter? In this article, Dean Croushore considers some answers to these questions and explains why inflation is the economic surprise of the decade.

The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The decisions of households, firms, and government agencies depend on forecasts of the overall economy. Large firms and the federal government often have the resources to hire their own economists to provide forecasts. But households, small firms, and local governments often depend on surveys of forecasters to get their information. In this article, Dean Croushore spotlights the Livingston Survey, which, even after 50 years, still provides useful forecasts of the economy.

Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However, they may have abandoned them too quickly. In this article, Dean Croushore takes a closer look at survey forecasts and, after considering some relevant factors, concludes that inflation forecasts may not be as bad as you think.

Introducing: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Forecasts play a crucial role in the economy. Businesses won't hire workers as readily if they think the economy may go into a recession soon. Long-term interest rates will rise if people in the financial markets expect inflation to increase. And firms are less likely to borrow money for new investment spending today if they think interest rates will soon decline.

Forecasts are important for many decisions, but not many people have the knowledge and experience to forecast economic variables well. It makes sense, therefore, for people to rely on the forecasts of experts. One easy way to get these …

What Are The Costs Of Disinflation?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The Federal Reserve can use monetary policy to reduce the inflation rate, a process known as disinflation. Are the benefits of disinflation worth the costs? Proponents of disinflation argue that the long-run benefits of price stability, including lower interest rates, increased economic efficiency, and perhaps faster economic growth, greatly exceed the short-run costs. Opponents, of course, claim the opposite, usually arguing that the short-run costs in terms of higher unemployment and lost output would be immense.

How Big Is Your Share Of Government Debt?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In evaluating the government's financial position, taxpayers need to account not only for its debt, but also for its ownership of tangible assets. Each taxpayer has a share of the government's net worth that is positive; however, the share was larger 10 years ago. While the real net debt tripled, this huge rise in government indebtedness generated no similar gain in government assets. Taxpayers will be paying interest on this debt with little hope of higher future returns from government assets to help pay it off. It is recommended that the government adopt a capital-budgeting system. This system would change …

The Effect Of Government Deficits On Consumption And Interest Rates: A Two Equation Approach, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Single-equation estimation of the consumption function often is used in testing the Ricardian equivalence theorem. This approach may be misleading, as effects on interest rates usually are ignored. This paper proposes simultaneous estimation of consumption and investment equations, with the interest rate serving to equilibrate the market. Five existing studies are replicated and subjected to sensitivity tests. The results show that the interest rate is important in the consumption function. The Ricardian equivalence theorem is tested, but the results are mixed.

Government Financial Policy And Capital, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Economists have long been concerned about the best way to finance government deficits. Finding the proper fiscal policy and monetary policy mix is a crucial decision. When government debt grows too fast, interest rates rise and capital is crowded out. If the money growth rate is excessive, inflation occurs.

The study of this issue at the theoretical level requires a model which incorporates the following features: (1) modeling money and bonds as endogenous financial assets, whose rates of return are determined in general equilibrium, (2) examination of the utility maxi mization decisions of individuals, so that welfare analysis of alternative …