Macroeconomics Commons^™

Recessionary Woes: Examining Economic Policies And Their Impact On Student Loan Debt And Housing Stability In The United States, Connor Recck

Senior Theses and Projects

Recessionary periods can seldom be avoided, but our modern public infrastructure has designed mechanisms to respond to these downturns. Economic policy has rapidly changed over the last 50 years, and the types of tools policymakers use have evolved with it. When looking at the Great Recession (2007-2009) and the COVID-19 recession (2020), a federal response structure was vital for the health of the macroeconomy. These recessionary periods serve as case studies for a review of economic policymaking activity in the United States since 2000. To examine the efficacy of the federal government’s fiscal and monetary infrastructure, policies focused on supporting …

Monetary Policy At The Zero Lower Bound: Implications Of High Costs Of Credit During A Recession, Louisa Kammerer

Senior Theses and Projects

This paper examines the challenges policymaker (and firms) encounter when confronted by a recession at the zero lower bound, when traditional monetary policy is ineffective in the face of deteriorated balance sheets and high costs of credit. Within the larger body of literature, this paper focuses on the cost of credit during a recession, which constrains smaller firms from borrowing and investing, thus magnifying the contraction. Extending and revising a model originally developed by Walker (2010) and estimated by Pandey and Ramirez (2012), this study uses a Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the effects of relevant economic and financial …

Sovereign Debt Crises: Domestically Engineered Or Foreignly Influenced?, Michael C. Selfe

Senior Theses and Projects

Throughout the last half century, the world has seen its fair share of systemic banking crises covering every corner of the globe. Recently, the Eurozone crisis of 2010 and ongoing Argentinian debt crisis have continued to plague the global economy. The motivation behind this thesis is to examine what causes these sovereign debt crises. More specifically, it aims to examine whether these crises are caused by monetary and fiscal policy decisions implemented by central banks or if outside factors including the role of financial institutions are to blame. This thesis examines a number of individual case studies with regards to …

Deflation And Economic Output, Brian T. Love

Senior Theses and Projects

This paper will look at deflation and its relationship to economic output. This is an area of economic research that has received relatively little attention and, where it has, researchers disagree as to the how the two variables relate. In order to explore these questions, the following analysis will consider data from a sample of eight countries in VAR equations to look at the relationship between prices and economic output since the mid-1800s with control variables to limit potential omitted variable bias, and Granger-causality testing as well as impulse response testing to further analyze obtained results. The resulting analysis provides …

Balance Of Power In Monetary And Fiscal Policymaking And Its Effect On Economic Outcomes, Rachel Ng

Senior Theses and Projects

By analyzing the balance of power between key policymakers involved in restoring the economy back to health during two periods in history – the Nixon administration and the 2008 financial crisis –, my thesis reveals the detrimental effects the political business cycle has on the success of recovery. In the Nixon era, the evidence supports the notion that Nixon coerced Burns into lowering interest rates past Burns’ threshold, which exacerbated inflation and sent the economy into the dismal state of stagflation. Contrary to the popularly held belief that the Fed acts as an arm of the Treasury, Bernanke held his …

A Piece Of The Puzzle: Can Behavioral Insights Help Understand Currency Returns?, Samuel D. Russell

Senior Theses and Projects

This paper finds further evidence using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression to support claims against the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) ex post, referred to as the Forward Discount Anomaly (Fama, 1984). This anomaly suggests predictable profits simply from investing in a country with a higher interest rate. Potential explanations could be attributed to risk or deviations from the rational expectations hypothesis. UIP ex ante is tested using survey data. These results indicate a time-­‐ varying risk premium. Further it is found that this premium is related to the gap between the exchange rate and Purchasing-­‐Power-­‐Parity value. Additionally it is determined …

An Index Of Macroeconomic Performance, Leo L. Liyeung

Senior Theses and Projects

There exists an abundance of economic indicators and ways to interpret macroeconomic data. While the rates of unemployment, inflation, GDP growth, etc all give important insights into the performance of an economy, all these indicators are, at best, incomplete ones that fail to look at the bigger picture of the economy as a whole.

Several macroeconomists have looked into the development of an Index of Macroeconomic Performance (IMP) that provides a comprehensive account of economic performance, the formulation of which allows for straightforward comparisons of macroeconomic performance internationally and intertemporally. Conventional indicators like unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth are taken …

Mexico's Quest In The North American Markets, Antonio Diaz Gonzalez Salas

Senior Theses and Projects

Since the 1980s Mexico has implemented various economic policies that have improved its financial system at times. All the policies have ultimately failed. Since the 1990s both Mexico and China have made progress in foreign trade with their respective trade organizations. Mexico entered the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994 and China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. In spite of being a part of two different trade organizations, both countries had a significant increase on their GDP and consequently a change of focus and direction towards their internal investments to enhance their production of exports. …

U.S. Consumption Function: An Empirical Test Of The Life-Cycle Hypothesis, Yuan Mei

Senior Theses and Projects

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, high household consumption that was previously boosted by debt-financing has shrunk significantly. The validity of conventional models of consumption that are mainly based on the life-cycle hypothesis has thus been called into question. This thesis utilizes empirical analysis to test the explanatory power of a modified Keynesian consumption function that captures household balance sheet movements. In addition to a short run OLS model, a VEC model and a DOLS model are constructed to examine the long run cointegrating relationship between consumption and other macroeconomic variables. Neither the regression results of the …