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Articles 1 - 30 of 130
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro
Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro
Luciano I. de Castro
Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand for electricity. We describe how to implement a simple prediction market for continuous variables, using only contracts based on binary variables. We also discuss specific issues concerning the implementation of such a market.
Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria
Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria
CBN Annual Report
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st December, 2009 revealed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.7% YoY, compared to 6.0% in the previous year. This growth was driven by the non-oil sector, with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 8.3%. Within the non-oil sector, the agricultural sub-sector grew by 6.2%, while the whole-sector and retail sectors recorded growth rates of 11.5 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The robust output recorded during the previous three years was driven by the government's optimism, which reflected in the oil …
Event Studies In Finance: Discussion, Carlo Drago
Ceo Compensation And Performance In Family Firms By Barontini And Bozzi: Discussion, Carlo Drago
Ceo Compensation And Performance In Family Firms By Barontini And Bozzi: Discussion, Carlo Drago
Carlo Drago
No abstract provided.
A Pitch For Microfinance: Using An Animation To Promote An Economic Movement, Yelena Kozlova
A Pitch For Microfinance: Using An Animation To Promote An Economic Movement, Yelena Kozlova
Art and Design
Microfinance refers to the idea of providing financial services to low-income clients. The purpose of this project was to create an animation using Adobe Flash that could be published online to inform the public about microfinance and to encourage the viewers to take part in this movement.
An Empirical Examination Of Firearm Users In Brasilia, Df, Adolfo Sachsida, Andre V. Mollick, Mario Jorge Cardoso De Mendonca
An Empirical Examination Of Firearm Users In Brasilia, Df, Adolfo Sachsida, Andre V. Mollick, Mario Jorge Cardoso De Mendonca
Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations
This paper relates individuals’ characteristics to the probability of possessing firearms: a) inside the home; b) outside the home; and c) inside and outside the home. Extending the literature on the demand for firearms whose focus is on the first trait, we collected survey data on 2,045 random individuals of Brasília, Brazil, in 2002. The multinominal logit model yields several new results. First, while we do find that a person’s educational level negatively affects the likelihood that an individual will use arms only outside his or her home, education does not affect the probability of an individual possessing a gun …
China’S Exports And The Oil Price, João Ricardo Faria, Andre V. Mollick, Pedro H. Albuquerque, Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma
China’S Exports And The Oil Price, João Ricardo Faria, Andre V. Mollick, Pedro H. Albuquerque, Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma
Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations
The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik (2006)’s …
Private Fund Adviser Registration Act Hr-3818, Anita Krug
Private Fund Adviser Registration Act Hr-3818, Anita Krug
All Faculty Scholarship
This paper comments on the Obama administration's 2009 proposal for the regulation of hedge fund investment advisers.
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …
Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu
Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. Some asymptotic properties of the Evans …
Credit Derivatives: Systemic Risks And Policy Options, John Kiff, Jennifer Elliott, Elias Kazarian, Jodi Scarlata, Carolyne Spackman
Credit Derivatives: Systemic Risks And Policy Options, John Kiff, Jennifer Elliott, Elias Kazarian, Jodi Scarlata, Carolyne Spackman
John Kiff
Credit derivative markets are largely unregulated, but calls are increasingly being made for changes to this "hands off" stance, amidst concerns that they helped to fuel the current financial crisis, or that they could be a cause of the next one. The purpose of this paper is to address two basic questions: (i) do credit derivative markets increase systemic risk; and (ii) should they be regulated more closely, and if so, how and to what extent? The paper begins with a basic description of credit derivative markets and recent events, followed by an assessment of their recent association with systemic …
Foreign Direct Investment And Foreign Portfolio Investment Under Asymmetric Information, Ruanjai Suwantaradon
Foreign Direct Investment And Foreign Portfolio Investment Under Asymmetric Information, Ruanjai Suwantaradon
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a model of international capital flows when there is asymmetric information between foreign investors and domestic managers. Direct investors have a direct influence on the management, thus overcoming agency and information problems. This information advantage, however, comes at the cost of having to acquire management expertise. The tradeoff between management costs and the costs of asymmetric information consequently determines the level and composition of a country’s international capital flows. Analyzing how this tradeoff changes with economic conditions in a country, the model can qualitatively capture the experiences of many crisis countries during the 1990s. Specifically, the model …
The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing And Evaluating New Patterns Of The Trilemma Configuration, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito
The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing And Evaluating New Patterns Of The Trilemma Configuration, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito
Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations
This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
The ongoing global financial turmoil has revived the question of whether central bankers ought to tighten monetary policy preemptively in order to head off asset price misalignments before a sudden crash triggers financial instability. This study explores the issue of the appropriate monetary policy response to asset price swings in the small open economy of Singapore. Empirical analysis of monetary policy based on standard VAR models, unfortunately, is often hindered by the use of sparse information sets. To better reflect the extensive information monitored by Singapore’s central bank, including global economic indicators, we augment a monetary VAR model with common …
Restarting Securitization Markets: Policy Proposals And Pitfalls, John Kiff, Andy Jobst, Jodi Scarlata, Michael Kisser
Restarting Securitization Markets: Policy Proposals And Pitfalls, John Kiff, Andy Jobst, Jodi Scarlata, Michael Kisser
John Kiff
This chapter tracks the rise and fall of securitization markets, and evaluates the various initiatives aimed at restarting them on a sounder footing, focusing on the markets for securities not backed by governments or government-sponsored enterprises. The analysis attempts to discern how securitization can positively contribute to financial stability and sustainable economic growth. While most of the current proposals are unambiguously positive for securitization markets and financial stability, some proposals—such as those designed to improve the alignment of securitizer and investor interests and accounting changes that will result in more securitized assets remaining on balance sheets—may be combined in ways …
On Some Covariance Inequalities For Monotonic And Non-Monotonic Functions, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Keung Wong
On Some Covariance Inequalities For Monotonic And Non-Monotonic Functions, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Keung Wong
Martin Egozcue
No abstract provided.
Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, And Systemic Risk By Battiston, Delli Gatti, Gallegati, Greenwald And Stiglitz: Discussion, Carlo Drago
Carlo Drago
No abstract provided.
Minerals-Supply Security And Mineral-Use Efficiency: Some Observations From The 1970–2005 Interval, Ira Sohn
Minerals-Supply Security And Mineral-Use Efficiency: Some Observations From The 1970–2005 Interval, Ira Sohn
Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works
As a consequence of the powerful changes that have occurred over the last three decades in the principal 'drivers' of economic change, there have been significant realignments in the global patterns of production and consumption of natural resources, as well as in the intensity of their use, in the quest to raise the level of material wellbeing throughout the world. In this paper, three large minerals-consuming (and -producing) countries are examined - the USA, China and Russia - and the story of a generation's economic progress (or decline, as the case may be) is seen through the lens of resource …
Describing The Economic Impact Of The Oil And Gas Industry In Arkansas, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman
Describing The Economic Impact Of The Oil And Gas Industry In Arkansas, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman
Publications and Presentations
The Arkansas oil and natural gas industries are increasingly important to the state’s economic vitality. As global demand for energy increases, domestic production is put into the spotlight. This study describes the economic impact of the oil and gas industries in Arkansas, focusing on the sector’s economic output, employment, and tax revenues.
Mergers And Ceo Power, Felipe Balmaceda Assoc Prof.
Mergers And Ceo Power, Felipe Balmaceda Assoc Prof.
Felipe Balmaceda
In this paper I propose a model of mergers in which synergies and CEO power play a crucial role. A merger is modeled as a bargaining game between the acquiring and target board of directors with the gains from a merger divided according to the generalized Nash-bargaining solution. The model's implications are consistent with the available empirical evidence on stock returns, and yield some new untested implications that are mainly related to the relationship between CEO power, cor- porate governance and mergers. Finally, the model sheds light on the relationship between aggregate merger activity, synergies and CEO power. (JEL: G34, …
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contingent claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature, the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. This paper proposes a simulation-based method. When it is used in connection with ML, it can improve the finite-sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The method is implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond and …
A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
following the Global financial Crisis there were economic collapses in all the world. Sudan officials claimed that the country was immune from that epidemic. Such declaration were truly weird as it has been deeply affected from the first instant. That article presented many questions about the economic and social conditions and the eminent southern Sudan, Darfur crises.
Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand (Working Paper), James J. Forest, Paul Turner
Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand (Working Paper), James J. Forest, Paul Turner
James J Forest
This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …
Subnational Credit Rating: A Comparative Review, Lili Liu, Kim Song Tan
Subnational Credit Rating: A Comparative Review, Lili Liu, Kim Song Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper surveys methodological issues in subnational credit ratings and highlights key challenges for developing countries. Subnational borrowing from capital markets has been on the rise owing to fiscal decentralization and demand for infrastructure investments. A prerequisite for accessing capital markets, subnational credit ratings have also emerged as a part of broader reform for fiscal sustainability. They facilitate a more transparent budgetary and financial management system. The global financial crisis makes subnational credit ratings more relevant, as they contribute to fiscal risk evaluations and fiscal adjustment. In addition to subnationals’ own credit strength, the creditworthiness of the sovereign and the …
Economic Performance, Creditor Protection, And Labour Inflexibility, Felipe Balmaceda Assoc Prof., Ronald Fischer Full Professor
Economic Performance, Creditor Protection, And Labour Inflexibility, Felipe Balmaceda Assoc Prof., Ronald Fischer Full Professor
Felipe Balmaceda
We present a static general equilibrium model of an open economy where agents are heterogeneous in terms of observable wealth and there are endogenous credit constraints due to imperfect creditor protection. Improved credit protection, harder assets, and more efficient bankruptcy procedures increase output, investment, and credit penetration. Better credit protection and harder assets lead to higher interest rate spreads. In a capital constrained (unconstrained) economy, greater (lower) wealth inequality leads to higher (lower) investment and output. Interest rate spreads are lower in richer and more unequal economies in terms of their wealth distribution. We also show that increased labour protection …
The Research On Function And Application Of Financial Leasing For Small And Medium Size Shipping Enterprise: Decision Making On Ship Financing In M Company, Yu Miao
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
A Study On Development Strategy Of Shipping Company C Dalian Branch, Minghui Xu
A Study On Development Strategy Of Shipping Company C Dalian Branch, Minghui Xu
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Influence Of Financial Storm On The Ship Chartering Market And The Way Of Risks Control, Xingyuan Sun
Influence Of Financial Storm On The Ship Chartering Market And The Way Of Risks Control, Xingyuan Sun
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Study The Chio Chemical Logistics Business Development Strategy Base On The Global Financial Crisis, Shang Xia
Study The Chio Chemical Logistics Business Development Strategy Base On The Global Financial Crisis, Shang Xia
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Analysis On Strategies Of Liners Against The Global Financial Crisis, Feng Chen
Analysis On Strategies Of Liners Against The Global Financial Crisis, Feng Chen
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.