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Articles 1 - 4 of 4
Full-Text Articles in Finance
The Vicious Cycle: Fundraising And Perceived Viability In U.S. Presidential Primaries, Cameron A. Shelton, James J. Feigenbaum
The Vicious Cycle: Fundraising And Perceived Viability In U.S. Presidential Primaries, Cameron A. Shelton, James J. Feigenbaum
CMC Faculty Publications and Research
Scholars of presidential primaries have long posited a dynamic positive feedback loop between fundraising and electoral success. Yet existing work on both directions of this feedback remains inconclusive and is often explicitly cross-sectional, ignoring the dynamic aspect of the hypothesis. Pairing high-frequency FEC data on contributions and expenditures with Iowa Electronic Markets data on perceived probability of victory, we examine the bidirectional feedback between contributions and viability. We find robust, significant positive feedback in both directions. This might suggest multiple equilibria: a candidate initially anointed as the front-runner able to sustain such status solely by the fundraising advantage conferred despite …
Caught In A Poverty Trap? Testing For Single Vs. Multiple Equilibrium Models Of Growth, Cameron Shelton, Francisco R. Rodriguez
Caught In A Poverty Trap? Testing For Single Vs. Multiple Equilibrium Models Of Growth, Cameron Shelton, Francisco R. Rodriguez
CMC Faculty Publications and Research
We look for permanent effects to per capita GDP from exogenous, temporary shocks. Our shocks are temporary changes to the export revenues of small, open economies. We find no evidence that even the largest of these temporary shocks, in excess of 9.7% of GDP, produce permanent effects to the growth path of per capita GDP. The inability to reject a single-equilibrium world with shocks of this magnitude suggests that multiple-equilibria, if they exist, are too widely separated to be policy-relevant. Current aid initiatives, which are of a similar magnitude, are not likely to deliver transition to a higher growth path.
Comments On Lederman And Maloney’S ‘In Search Of The Missing Resource Curse’, Cameron Shelton
Comments On Lederman And Maloney’S ‘In Search Of The Missing Resource Curse’, Cameron Shelton
CMC Faculty Publications and Research
The paper by Daniel Lederman and William Maloney is part of a larger project of the authors.1 Their broader goal is to drive home the point that the possession of natural resource wealth does not inevitably lead to lower growth rates and thus lower per capita GDP. In their words, “the central tendency is not negative” and natural resources are neither curse nor destiny.
Trade And Financial Interdependence In The World Economy, Sven W. Arndt, Lawrence Bouton
Trade And Financial Interdependence In The World Economy, Sven W. Arndt, Lawrence Bouton
CMC Faculty Publications and Research
With regard to the trading order, questions have arisen about the benefits from freer trade at a time when more countries are turning to managed trade and protectionist sentiment is on the rise. Some believe that the international financial system, for its part, no longer facilitates the transactions of goods but dominates them. This article discusses these issues and addresses the policy options available to government leaders.