Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Developing Countries And External Debt: What Is Wrong?, Jesus Felipe, Jose Antonio Perez Montiel

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

LAST DECEMBER, the World Bank published its annual report on international debt (https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-statistics/idr/products). The report indicates that, in 2022, the developing countries spent $443 billion on debt-service repayment (principal plus interest) of their external public and publicly guaranteed debt, 5% more than in 2021. These payments are expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 due to the increase in interest rates. The report indicates that debt levels and high interest rates have set many countries on a path to crisis.

The Effect Of Remittances On Housing Expenditure In Filipino Households, Joaquin Franco Rigonan, Angelo Salvo, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Tereso S. Tullao Jr, Winfred Villamil, Krista Yu

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) have chosen to work abroad due to the abundance of better work opportunities and a higher salary earned. Migrant workers send remittances to their families from their country of origin to bring extra income for these households to spend on essential consumption. These remittances serve as additional income and protection for recipient households, easing their consumption and enabling them to spend their money on education, housing construction, and household electrical appliances. Numerous existing literature has stated that household-receiving remittances spend more money on investments that will help improve their standard of living; one of these investments …

The Effect Of Conditional Cash Transfers On The Prepaid And Postpaid Expenditures Of Internet And Cellular Services: The Case Of Filipino Households, Krisann Carmina G. Caoile, Edgar Desher P. Empeño, Raphael Manuel P. Ramos, Marie Angeline A. Trinidad, Myrna S. Austria, Ma. Ella Oplas, Tereso S. Tullao Jr, Winfred M. Villamil

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Technology has been playing a large role in the lives of households regardless of income. How, then, do poor families value the importance of internet and cellular services due to the existence of outcome-improving or outcome-worsening effects associated with these services? At the same time, since the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) substantially affects its beneficiaries’ household expenditures, assessing its effectiveness concerning its objectives is important. Most literature on how poor households spend their cash transfers is centered on directly linked goods such as health and education. However, the relationship between CCTs and expenditures on goods that play a more …

Will The Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 Targets Be Met?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

EARLY THIS YEAR, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. signed the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 (PDP). The document contains hundreds of targets. Some of the key targets to be attained by 2028 are as follows (in fact, the Plan provides yearly targets):

1.) an annual growth rate of 6.5-8% (since 2024); 2.) a gross national income per capita of $6,044-$6,571 (50% higher than that in 2023); 3.) inflation between 2%-4% (from 2.5%-4.5% in 2023); 4.) a government fiscal deficit of 3% (from 6.1% in 2023); 5.) a debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%-53% (from 60%-62% in 2023); 6.) an unemployment rate of 4%-5% (from …

An Economic Evaluation Of The Use Of Non-Combusted Alternatives Using A Cost Of Illness Approach: The Philippine Case, Christopher James R. Cabuay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Smoking continues to be one of the leading causes of death and disability around the world. Recent health studies, however, have reported that these diseases are more likely to be due to the smoke from burning rather than the actual nicotine content. This study uses a cost of illness approach in estimating the cost of smoking-related illness in the Philippines and calculating the potential reduction in costs if a significant portion of the adult smoking population switches to the exclusive use of non-combusted alternatives (NCAs), which drastically reduces the risk of contracting smoking-related diseases. This study finds that cost reductions …

Why The Public Discourse On Education Is Wrong, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

ONCE upon a time, the Philippines was praised for its relatively well-educated labor force. Not anymore. The situation seems to have reversed: policymakers and commentators single out education as one of the primary causes for the country’s poor performance (lack of competitiveness) and the unemployability of many of its workers.

To put the discussion in the correct context, I will start by arguing that the relevant measure of progress for a developing nation like the Philippines is productivity. Without productivity increases, there cannot be increases in income. Productivity in the Philippines is low in general. Is education the key to …

Reflections On Inflation: How Bad Has It Been?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

THE increase in prices that countries have experienced since March 2022 has brought old fears about the deleterious impact of inflation. It is true that prices increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and this affected a series of commodities that are imported. Yet, it is important to understand how much prices have increased, the nature of inflation we have experienced, and the reaction of central banks.

Monitoring The Philippine Economy State Of The Economy Report, Mitzie Irene P. Conchada, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Jesus Felipe, Desher Edgar Empeño, Brendan Emmanuel A. Miranda

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Philippine economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic during 2022. It posted a very high annual growth rate, 7.6%, although this must be understood in the context of a low base. AKI’s State of the Economy Report focuses on three issues in the context of the new Administration’s 8-Point Socioeconomic Agenda and the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028: growth, inflation, and the fiscal deficit and national debt. Overall, we have a positive view of the economy over the medium and long-term. However, we argue that:

-The focus of economic policy has to shift decisively toward changing the structure of the economy …

Monitoring The Philippine Economy Fourth Quarter Report For 2022, Mitzie Irene P. Conchada, Natasha Amber Y. Cabiltes, Brendan Emmanuel A. Miranda, Edgar Desher P. Empeño

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Philippine economy grew 7.2 percent, featuring robust growth despite facing domestic challenges. Fourth quarter growth reflected a more optimistic consumer sentiment as the economy continued to open up. Economic growth in Q4 2022 was 7.2 percent year-on-year and 17.1 percent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), showing the Philippines’ consistent effort to create a positive growth outlook for the economy (see Table 1). Year-on-year growth exceeded the median analyst forecast of 6.8 percent despite accelerating inflation and growing food security issues. Revenge spending continues to drive consumption on the demand side while service sector growth remains headstrong on the supply side amid stunted …

Testing The Relationship Between Confidence And Effort: A Behavioral Finance Perspective On The Problem Of Financial Literacy, Louie Bernard A. Jacob, Miguel Angelo S. Rabago, Hans Erickson A. Tan, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Gerardo L. Largoza, Maria Fe Carmen L. Dabbay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

This experimental study tested the relationship between confidence and effort with the ultimate objective of discovering how these factors may influence financial literacy. This was done through a modified version of a slider test and ball allocation task. The population consisted of 85 random participants who were primarily approached through social media. A simple OLS regression, along with robustness checks, namely the Tobit model and instrumental variable (IV) regression model using Tobit estimators, were utilized to confirm the causal relationship between confidence and effort.

A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach To Portfolio Selection: An Application To The Blue Chip Stocks In The Philippine Stock Exchange (2010-2019), Vishal Bhagia, Colleen Monica K. Chiu, Paulynne J. Castillo, Roberto B. Raymundo, Joel Q. Tanchuco

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

There has been a growing interest in the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a nonparametric approach in portfolio optimization due to its flexibility in overcoming the limitations of the conventional mean-variance portfolio (MVP) model. Therefore, this study aims to validate the allocative efficiency of the DEA cross-efficiency model using blue chip stocks in the Philippine Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2019. This study finds that the proposed model is able to distinguish a unique set of best-performing stocks across each holding period and outperforms the MVP more consistently. The results of this study suggest that the proposed DEA …

Teaching Math With Confidence-Recommendations For Improving Numeracy From The Lens Of Confidence Building, Louie Bernard A. Jacob, Miguel Angelo S. Rabago, Hans Erickson A. Tan, Lawrence Dacuycuy, Gerardo L. Largoza, Maria Fe Carmen L. Dabbay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Despite the vast amount of literature surrounding the topic of financial literacy and related problems, there is still no universally accepted solution to this issue because the main factors causing financial literacy problems are still not fully understood both by researchers and current policy-makers. A possible new approach was discovered by Skagerlund et al. (2018), as their research suggested that financial literacy is driven by numeracy (the ability to process and perform basic numerical concepts and calculations) rather than direct knowledge about financial concepts. Given that numeracy is an effort based task, this policy brief provides a list of recommendations …

Discovering The Relationship Between Investor Attention And Trade Volume In The Philippine Stock Exchange Using Google Search Analysis, Patrick Allan G. Morando, Isabel Louise D. Banico, Martin Stevens C. Ng, Riggs Mattieu M. Villardo

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

This study investigates the relationship between daily Google search volume and trade volume in the Philippine Stock Exchange. This is completed by employing a sample consisting of listed stocks in the Philippine Stock Exchange from 2015 to 2019 and testing the veracity of three different keyword categories in proxying investor attention. The empirical results indicate that when using company names and stock tickers as Google search keywords, there is a strong positive relationship between Google search volume and trade volume. This implies that the more investors search for a stock’s company name or ticker, the more likely that there will …

The Economic Impact Of The Metro Manila (Ncr) Enhanced Community Quarantine, Krista Danielle Yu, Kathleen Aviso, Raymond R. Tan

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Metro Manila (NCR) comprises 37.5 percent of the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) and the 30-day enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) will cause a significant decline in the national economy. This policy brief is based on a persistent inoperability input-output model to estimate two metrics: inoperability and economic losses. This takes into account the interdependent nature of the different sectors of the economy and considers the impact of the pandemic on the productivity of sectors directly affected by the ECQ such as the manufacturing, construction, trade, finance, private sector services, and transport sectors. Unlike previous model, PIIM results will provide insights …

International Migration And Remittances: A Review Of Economic Impacts, Issues And Challenges From The Sending Country’S Perspective, Tereso S. Tullao Jr, Christopher James R. Cabuay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The paper reviews the motivations of people to migrate and remit as well as the impacts of migration and the effects of remittances. Reasons for migration are quite varied ranging from economic asymmetries (also known as push-pull factors), demographic asymmetries, investment in human capital, maximization of household income, the culture of migration, and the movement in natural persons. On the other hand, remittances are sent to the home country for altruistic, exchange, strategic and insurance motives as well as an arbitrage in interspatial differences in purchasing power. The impacts of migration and remittances are felt on both the household and …

Evolution Of Philippine Businesses: Response To Internal And External Turbulence: Review Of Literature And A Framework For A Research Program, Ma. Andrea L. Santiago

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Philippine business environment undoubtedly is characterized as having a boom and bust cycle. It has not been able to take off as compared to its neighboring countries (Lim, 1999). Now more than ever, the political and economic environment has become a big challenge for many local businesses.

In spite, or because, of the current environment there are businesses that continue to prosper. On the one extreme are the large conglomerates that have the muscle to withstand major shocks and the on other are the smaller entrepreneurial ventures that are flexible and able to seize upon opportunities quickly.

In trying …