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- Nigeria (16)
- Volatility (11)
- Inflation (10)
- Cointegration (8)
- ARDL (7)
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- Economic Growth (7)
- Exchange rate (6)
- Forecasting (6)
- Exchange Rate (5)
- ARIMA (4)
- Economic growth (4)
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- Monetary Policy (4)
- Agriculture (3)
- Asymmetry (3)
- EGARCH (3)
- Fisher effect (3)
- Long memory (3)
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- Public Debt (3)
- Structural breaks (3)
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- Capital Mobility (2)
- Cointegration. (2)
- Destination Sector (2)
- Economies (2)
- External Reserves (2)
- FDI (2)
- Global financial crisis (2)
- Interest Rate (2)
Articles 61 - 90 of 138
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Exchange Rate And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Abdulkadir I. Ali, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Mohammed A. Shettima, Solomon S. Zirra, Bola S. Falade, Michael J. Alenyi
Exchange Rate And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Abdulkadir I. Ali, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Mohammed A. Shettima, Solomon S. Zirra, Bola S. Falade, Michael J. Alenyi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper models the long-run relationship between the Bureau De Change exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria in a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) framework using daily data that spans from Jan 1, 2014 to Jul 31, 2015. Modeling BDC exchange rate and external reserves within this context can be motivated by the fact that the transition mechanism between the variables is controlled by the degree of BDC exchange rates premium which is within central bank of Nigeria’s policy oversight. The supLM test result indicates that there is a non-linear long-run relationship between the series, providing empirical support …
Analysing Oil Price- Macroeconomic Volatility In Nigeria, Alhassan Abdulkareem, Kilishi A. Abdulkareem
Analysing Oil Price- Macroeconomic Volatility In Nigeria, Alhassan Abdulkareem, Kilishi A. Abdulkareem
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the paper employed GARCH model and its variants (GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH) with daily, monthly and quarterly data. The findings reveal that: all the macroeconomic variables considered (real gross domestic product, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price) are highly volatile; the asymmetric models (TGARCH and EGARCH) outperform the symmetric models (GARCH (1 1) and GARCH – M); and oil price is a major source of macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. By implication, the Nigerian economy is vulnerable to both internal shocks (interest rate volatility, real …
Day-Of-The-Week Anomaly: An Illusion Or A Reality? Evidence From Naira/Dollar Exchange Rates, Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor
Day-Of-The-Week Anomaly: An Illusion Or A Reality? Evidence From Naira/Dollar Exchange Rates, Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the day-of-the-week effect in the Nigerian foreign exchange market (Naira against the US dollars), its volatility as well as the asymmetric effects, for the period of 12th May 2009 to 12th June, 2015. The empirical results of GARCH-t(1,1), EGARCH-t(1,1), GJR-GARCH-t(1,1), IGARCH and the OLS methodology shows that the detection of the day-of-the-week effect is influenced by the choice of the volatility model applied. Similarly, the highest or lowest volatility market day goes with the influence of these models. Thus this study clearly support the argument of Charles (2010), that, the days of the week anomalies lies on …
Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi
Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the link between unemployment and monetary policy in Nigeria using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework for the period 1983q1 – 2014q1. The paper investigates the effect of structural change by identifying three structural breakpoints and incorporating them into the VAR model as dummy variables. The results show that a positive shock to policy rate raises unemployment over a 10 quarter period. In addition, all the variables used as proxy in the model jointly Granger cause unemployment, implying the existence of a dynamic relationship between monetary policy and unemployment in Nigeria.
Fiscal Policy And Private Investment In Selected West African Countries, Joseph A. Omojolaibi, Tochi-Nze P. Okenesi, Ekundayo P. Mesagan
Fiscal Policy And Private Investment In Selected West African Countries, Joseph A. Omojolaibi, Tochi-Nze P. Okenesi, Ekundayo P. Mesagan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study sets out to examine the nexus between fiscal policy and private investment in five selected West African countries using annual data from 1993 to 2014. Employing Fixed Effect Model for Panel data ordinary least square approach, the results showed the existence of a significant crowding in effect of government capital expenditure and tax revenue while non-tax revenue showed a crowding out effect. Recurrent expenditure and external debt also showed crowding out effects but these were insignificant. The accelerator effect of output growth was also found to be insignificant across the countries over the time period. The study called …
Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim
Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria over the period 1981 – 2015, using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Empirical results indicated that inflation in Nigeria proxied by CPI exhibited a strong degree of inertia. The econometric results showed that past inflation and average rainfall appeared to have been the main determinants of inflationary process in Nigeria over the study period. We also found strong evidence of the importance of money supply in the inflation process, lending credence to the dominance of the monetarist proposition on inflation dynamics in Nigeria. Thus, the paper recommended among others, …
Testing The Fisher Hypothesis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Adaptive Inflationary Expectations: Evidence From Nigeria, Yakubu A. Bello, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Suleiman Karu, Satumari A. Stephen, Raymond O. Ogbuka, Balarabe F. Usman, Oluwaseun D. Mimiko
Testing The Fisher Hypothesis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Adaptive Inflationary Expectations: Evidence From Nigeria, Yakubu A. Bello, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Suleiman Karu, Satumari A. Stephen, Raymond O. Ogbuka, Balarabe F. Usman, Oluwaseun D. Mimiko
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper tested for the validity of the Fisher hypothesis in Nigeria during the period 1970 – 2014. The Gregory and Hansen Co-integration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation, albeit with a structural break in October 2005. In addition, the obtained Fisher coefficient in the cointegrating relation was 0.08, implying a weak form of Fisher effect in the long-run. On the basis of these findings, we upheld a weak Fisher effect in the long-run and non-existence of Fisher effect in the short-run. This implied that short term nominal interest rate is a …
Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Abiodun S. Bada, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Inuwa A. Tata, Idowu Peters, Sani Bawa, Anigwe J. Onwubiko, Udoko C. Onyowo
Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Abiodun S. Bada, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Inuwa A. Tata, Idowu Peters, Sani Bawa, Anigwe J. Onwubiko, Udoko C. Onyowo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Concerns about the magnitude and length of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices have increased in many developing countries in view of its profound implications on price and exchange rate stability as well as the macroeconomic policy environment. This paper examines the exchange rate pass-through effect at the aggregate level into import and consumer prices in Nigeria for the period 1995Q1 – 2015Q1. Utilizing the Johansen approach to cointegration and a vector error correction methodology, the paper found the exchange rate pass-through into Nigeria’s CPI inflation to be incomplete. The long run pass-through elasticities were found to be 0.24 and …
Exchange Rate Policy And Falling Crude Oil Prices: Effect On The Nigerian Stock Market, Terfa W. Abraham
Exchange Rate Policy And Falling Crude Oil Prices: Effect On The Nigerian Stock Market, Terfa W. Abraham
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the effect of crude oil price movement on the Nigerian stock market and the role of exchange rate as a plausible countercyclical policy tool. Daily data on All Share Index of the Nigerian stock market, crude oil prices and exchange rate, were collected for two periods: 2008-2009 and 2012-2015. Results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model show that oil prices are positively related with the performance of the Nigerian stock market thus would drag the market down in times of turmoil. Howbeit, devaluation of the naira is found to be effective in cushioning the effect of …
Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Racheal O. Adebayo, Abdullahi A. Shettima, John O. Anigwe, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Racheal O. Adebayo, Abdullahi A. Shettima, John O. Anigwe, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study analyzed the relationship between relevant macroeconomic variables and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Nigeria based on the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated to obtain the equilibrium REER while the resultant levels of misalignment were computed for the period 1990 - 2014. Model results indicated that terms of trade and degree of trade openness are significant determinants of the REER, implying that trade policies matter for Naira REER movements. The error correction model indicated that 3.3% of disequilibrium error is corrected within a quarter. On the average, the …
An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Impact Of Public Debt In Nigeria, Sunday N. Essien, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Michael K. Mba, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu
An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Impact Of Public Debt In Nigeria, Sunday N. Essien, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Michael K. Mba, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the impact of public sector borrowings on prices, interest rates, and output in Nigeria. It utilized a Vector Autoregressive framework, the Granger causality test, impulse response, and variance decomposition of the various innovations to study the impact. It found that shock to external debt stock increases prime lending rate, but with a lag. However, the level of external and domestic debt over the period of this study had no significant impact on the general price level and output.
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment And Economic Growth In Nigeria (1960-2011), Waheed O. Ibrahim
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment And Economic Growth In Nigeria (1960-2011), Waheed O. Ibrahim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in Nigeria using an annual data spanning 1960 to 2011. The augmented growth model was estimated using purchasing power parity (PPP) and generalized method of moment (GMM) approaches. Through series of iterative processes, it was observed that it will take four years for the exchange rate to revert back to equilibrium. The result from the PPP approach shows that the period of flexible exchange rate regime is characterized by a relatively lower real exchange rate misalignment over time compared with the fixed exchange rate regime. The …
Modelling Banks’ Interest Margins In Nigeria, Ini S. Udom, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Ngozi V. Atoi, Abiola O. Adeleke, Ochoche Abraham, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu, Murtala Abubakar
Modelling Banks’ Interest Margins In Nigeria, Ini S. Udom, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Ngozi V. Atoi, Abiola O. Adeleke, Ochoche Abraham, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu, Murtala Abubakar
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study applied panel analysis to determine the factors influencing interest margins in Nigeria using bank-specific, sector-specific and macroeconomic data ranging from 2010:Q1 to 2014:Q2. Based on the Hausman test, a fixed effect model in a generalized form (GLS) was estimated. The result shows that credit risk, growth in loans and advances, staff operating cost, GDP growth, inflation rate and money supply growth are significant determinants of interest margins in Nigeria. Consistent with previous studies, staff cost exerts highest impact on interest margins followed by fixed effects term. Further analysis of the banks’ fixed effects reveals that seven banks control …
Re-Introducing And Operationalizing Nigeria’S Flexible Exchange Rate Market, Godwin I. Emefiele
Re-Introducing And Operationalizing Nigeria’S Flexible Exchange Rate Market, Godwin I. Emefiele
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This is an address presented to relevant stakeholders and the general public unveiling of the framework for re-introduction of Managed Float Exchange Rate System on 15th June 2016. The address included the broad framework and guidelines of the Flexible Exchange Rate Inter-bank Market, which we alluded to at the end of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of 24th May 2016.
Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Nigeria. It attempts to test whether the Friedman’s hypothesis – that a rise in the average rate of inflation leads to more uncertainty about future rate of inflation - holds for the country. The monthly inflation data spanning the period 1960:1 to 2014:07 was used. Inflation uncertainty was modeled as a time varying process using a GARCH framework. Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) complemented by seasonal ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (0, 0, 1) was employed to model the inflation uncertainty. Given that inflation series display structural breaks, this was …
Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities, 2014, International Investment Statistics Office (Iiso)
Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities, 2014, International Investment Statistics Office (Iiso)
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted in 2015 to determine the stock of foreign assets/liabilities of Nigerian enterprises as at end 2014. The survey collected relevant information from 740 enterprises while the analysis of survey data was done based on the recipient sectors as well as country of origin of the investments. Survey returns showed that total private foreign liabilities as at end-2014 was N15, 046.07 billion, down by 1.4 per cent from its level in 2013. Of this total, 99.8 per cent came in the form of foreign direct investments, while foreign …
Moving Average Stratification Algorithm For Strata Boundary Determination In Skewed Populations, Akeem O. Kareem, Isaac O. Oshungade, Gafar M. Oyeyemi, Adebowale O. Adejumo
Moving Average Stratification Algorithm For Strata Boundary Determination In Skewed Populations, Akeem O. Kareem, Isaac O. Oshungade, Gafar M. Oyeyemi, Adebowale O. Adejumo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Moving Average Stratification (MAS) is a new competing and simple algorithm for strata boundary determination in Stratified Sampling. It eliminates arbitrary choice of class interval associated with cumulative square root of frequency method (Dalenius and Hodges Rule (DHR) 1959) and the inherent geometric gaps created within strata by Geometric Stratification (GMS) of Gunning & Horgan (2004). It competes favorably well with DHR and GMS in terms of its precision, simplicity and speeds and therefore recommended for use in strata boundaries determination especially in skewed populations.
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …
Gdp Per Capita In Africa Before The Global Financial Crisis: Persistence, Mean Reversion And Long Memory Features, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
Gdp Per Capita In Africa Before The Global Financial Crisis: Persistence, Mean Reversion And Long Memory Features, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examined the long memory features of GDP per capita data before the global financial crisis, using a sample of 26 African countries. The study employed fractional integration and tested the stability of the differencing parameter across the sample period for each country. The results indicated that most of the countries’ GDP series were I(1) or higher. Evidence of mean reversion was observed in 10 countries where the disturbances were autocorrelated. There was strong evidence against mean reversion in the remaining 16 countries. The results also indicated that the fractional differencing parameter was stable in 17 countries, while the …
Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara
Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria. The study applied the Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to assess if CCI granger causes output growth as well as ascertain the magnitude …
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted in 2014 to determine the 2013 stock of foreign assets/liabilities of Nigerian enterprises, as well as receiving sectors and origination/destination regions. The survey collected relevant information from 740 enterprises, and analysis of survey returns indicated that the total private foreign liabilities as at end-2013 was N12, 639.27 billion up by 5.08 per cent above its level in 2012. Of this total, 96.7 per cent was in the form of foreign direct investments, while foreign portfolio investments and other capital flows accounted for 0.4 and 2.9 per cent, …
Estimating Bull And Bear Betas For The Nigerian Stock Market Using Logistic Smooth Threshold Model, Mohammed T. Tumala, Olaoluwa S. Yaya
Estimating Bull And Bear Betas For The Nigerian Stock Market Using Logistic Smooth Threshold Model, Mohammed T. Tumala, Olaoluwa S. Yaya
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In this paper, we examine the Nigerian stock market sector returns and estimate the bull and bear betas using the Logistic Smooth Threshold Market (LSTM) model. The LSTM model specification follows from the linear Constant Risk Market (CRM) model. We estimate the LSTM model for the overall sampled daily time series from 2001 to 2012 using the conditional nonlinear least squares approach. We also estimate the model for each of the All share Index (ASI) sub-samples taking the time of financial crisis (February 2008) as the break point. The results show the significant correlations of stocks returns in each market …
Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette
Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper discusses some technical issues in Balance of Payment compilation and analysis. It summarized major components of the BOP statistics, the various account balances as well as the interrelationship between them and other macroeconomic aggregates. It goes further to discuss data related issues in the compilation of Nigeria’s BOP statistics with the aim of providing better insight to future/new compilers, policy and other economic analysts.
On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade
On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) processes. The performances of the proposed models are compared with the existing model obtained using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in …
Impact Of The 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis On The Stock Market In Nigeria, Peter Njiforti
Impact Of The 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis On The Stock Market In Nigeria, Peter Njiforti
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The convergence of global economy makes all countries and all markets sensible to the happenings in other countries (the contagious effect). The 2008 global financial crisis that had its origin from USA was alleged to have had varying degree of impacts on different capital markets in various countries. This paper investigated the impact of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis on the Nigerian capital market. Monthly time series data from January 2006 to December 2009. All Share Index (ASI) was used as proxy for the performance of the Nigerian Capital market, while Credit to the Private Sector (CPS), Price of Crude …
Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad
Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the long run relationship between exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria during 1990Q1 – 2012Q4. We confirm the existence of threshold cointegration between the variables in Nigeria, as against linear cointegration. Consequently, a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) is estimated via maximum likelihood procedure. Model results indicate that cointegration between the variables occurs only when the equilibrium error exceeds an estimated threshold parameter of 0.52. Having partitioned the TVECM into two regimes based on the obtained threshold, we find that the error correction coefficients of the exchange rate in the two regimes are not …
Investigating The Dynamics Of Bank Credit In Nigeria: The Role Of Bank Consolidation, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Abiodun S. Bada, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Kumafan S. Dzaan
Investigating The Dynamics Of Bank Credit In Nigeria: The Role Of Bank Consolidation, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Abiodun S. Bada, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Kumafan S. Dzaan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the dynamics of deposit money banks (DMB) credit and the role of consolidation in credit growth in Nigeria using vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The empirical investigation involved DMBs that have maintained a unique name and some market characteristics before and after the 2004 banking sector consolidation. Using quarterly data from 1999Q1 – 2013Q2 of the selected DMBs, the results show a positive relationship between post-consolidation credit supply growth and the real gross domestic product. The results also show that despite the onesided positive causality from credit supply to economic growth, the total contribution …
Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja
Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
There is a widespread belief that fiscal decentralization is an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of public expenditures. Decentralization is expected to boost accountability and transparency in the provision of public goods for the well-being of the society. However, countervailing views maintain that little or no impact has been created at the periphery in terms of improving the welfare of the people in Nigeria. The main objective of this paper was to investigate how the decentralized system of expenditure impacted on human resource development in Nigeria. Using ARDL/Bounds Testing approach and data for the period 1980 to 2012, the …
On The Compilation Of Labour Force Statistics For Nigeria, Yemi Kale, Sani I. Doguwa
On The Compilation Of Labour Force Statistics For Nigeria, Yemi Kale, Sani I. Doguwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Computing unemployment rate using a 40 hours a week benchmark implies that any person who has worked for less than 40 hours during the reference week is considered unemployed. This method has become outdated given the present realities of the working environment in Nigeria, particularly, considering the nature of certain activities in the service sector of the economy. This document presents the new definition and revised methodology that is used to re-compute the labour force statistics in Nigeria between 2010 to 2014 Q4. The high rate of underemployment among age “25-34” years showcased the difficulty associated with youth and graduate …