Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 10 of 10
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Threshold Effect Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Abdullahi S. Ismaila
Threshold Effect Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Abdullahi S. Ismaila
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
It is widely believed that price stability promote long-term economic growth, whereas high inflation is inimical to growth. This paper utilized a quarterly time series data for the period 1981 – 2009 to estimate a threshold level of inflation for Nigeria. Using a threshold regression model developed by Khan and Senhadji (2001), the study estimated a threshold inflation level of 13 per cent for Nigeria. Below the threshold level, inflation has a mild effect on economic activities, while above it, the magnitude of the negative effect of inflation on growth was high. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and …
Inflation Dynamics And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Nigeria: Evidence From Augmented Nonlinear New Keynesian Philips Curve, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi
Inflation Dynamics And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Nigeria: Evidence From Augmented Nonlinear New Keynesian Philips Curve, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper estimates a nonlinear augmented New Keynesian Philips Curve for Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Regression model for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q2. The empirical evidence reveals the existence of two inflation regimes during the period under review. Food inflation, energy inflation, firms’ marginal cost, and imported inflation account for most of the changes in the prices of composite consumers’ basket in low exchange rate depreciation regime. However, the exchange rate solely explains price changes in the composite consumers’ basket when inflation switches to high regime. Similarly, the results show that regime change in inflation is largely caused by …
The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo
The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study sought to identify the traditional and institutional inflation variables responsible for inflation phenomenon and the magnitude of the contribution of the identified variables to the rise in general price level. Secondary data on key macroeconomic variables in the economy from 1974 to 2013 were used. The data collected were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The results showed that there existed a longrun co-movement among the variables. Also, the ordinary least squares estimate showed that Real Effective Exchange Rate, Lagged Consumer Price Index, Real Broad Money and Real Profits were statistically significant in influencing Consumer …
Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim
Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria over the period 1981 – 2015, using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Empirical results indicated that inflation in Nigeria proxied by CPI exhibited a strong degree of inertia. The econometric results showed that past inflation and average rainfall appeared to have been the main determinants of inflationary process in Nigeria over the study period. We also found strong evidence of the importance of money supply in the inflation process, lending credence to the dominance of the monetarist proposition on inflation dynamics in Nigeria. Thus, the paper recommended among others, …
Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Nigeria. It attempts to test whether the Friedman’s hypothesis – that a rise in the average rate of inflation leads to more uncertainty about future rate of inflation - holds for the country. The monthly inflation data spanning the period 1960:1 to 2014:07 was used. Inflation uncertainty was modeled as a time varying process using a GARCH framework. Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) complemented by seasonal ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (0, 0, 1) was employed to model the inflation uncertainty. Given that inflation series display structural breaks, this was …
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …
The Relationships Of Inflationary Trend, Agricultural Productivity And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Grace Z. Rekwot
The Relationships Of Inflationary Trend, Agricultural Productivity And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Grace Z. Rekwot
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the links existing between inflationary trend, agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1970 to 2011. The results of the analyses indicate a unidirectional causality from inflationary trend to agricultural productivity, unidirectional causality from agricultural productivity to economic growth with no causality between inflationary trend and economic growth. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should pay more attention to the trend of inflation and pursue policies that will ensure single digit inflation.
A Kalman Filter Approach To Fisher Effect: Evidence From Nigeria, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Dahiru A. Bala
A Kalman Filter Approach To Fisher Effect: Evidence From Nigeria, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Dahiru A. Bala
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates evidence of a Fisher effect in Nigeria by employing quarterly CPI inflation and Nominal interest rates data. For a more robust result we conducted integration and cointegration tests in order to examine time-series properties of the variables. Using Co-integration and Kalman filter methodologies, the study did not find evidence of a full Fisher effect from 1961:1-2009:4. This result indicates that nominal interest rates do not respond one-for-one to changes in inflation rates in the long run despite the presence of positive relationship among the variables. Our study recommends the adoption of potent policies aimed at checking inflation …
Relationship Between Inflation And Stock Market Returns: Evidence From Nigeria, Omotor G. Douglason
Relationship Between Inflation And Stock Market Returns: Evidence From Nigeria, Omotor G. Douglason
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The linkage between stock prices and inflation has been subjected to extensive research in the past decades and has arouse the interests of academics, researchers, practitioners and policy makers globally, particularly since the 1990s. The issue has been the apparent anomaly of the negative relationship between inflation and stock market returns as most studies in the industrialized economies have shown. This paper investigates this relationship using monthly and quarterly data of Nigeria for the period 1985 to 2008. The findings of this paper seem to suggest that stock market returns may provide an effective hedge against inflation in Nigeria.