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Articles 1 - 16 of 16
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Determination Of Optimal Level Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria, Ishola W. Oyeniran, Solomon A. Alamu
Determination Of Optimal Level Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria, Ishola W. Oyeniran, Solomon A. Alamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study adopts the ’buffer stock model’ advanced by Frenkel and Jovanovic (1981) to estimate the optimal level of foreign reserves for Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (ARDL) was used to estimate the optimal foreign reserves function. The results show that the Nigeria’s optimal reserves level responses to adjustment cost of holding reserves and exchange rate volatility and that import and opportunity cost of reserves holding have insignificant impact on Nigeria’s optimal foreign reserves. The short run and long run estimates of the buffer stock model support the theory that foreign reserves holding in Nigeria is more sensitive to …
Measuring Dynamic Return And Volatility Connectedness Among Nigerian Financial Markets, Elias A. Udeaja
Measuring Dynamic Return And Volatility Connectedness Among Nigerian Financial Markets, Elias A. Udeaja
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study employs the connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) to examine the intensity of connectedness among the Nigerian financial markets for the period January 2000 to December 2018. The study used all shares index, Treasury bill rate and Naira/USD official exchange rate to measure stock market, money market and exchange rate market, respectively. The study found connectedness among the Nigerian financial markets to be highly time-varying and appear to be higher during the period of high depreciation of the naira which coincides with the period of falling oil prices and domestic economic meltdown of 2014 and 2016, …
Oil Price And Exchange Rate Nexus In Nigeria: Are There Asymmetries, Attahir B. Abubakar
Oil Price And Exchange Rate Nexus In Nigeria: Are There Asymmetries, Attahir B. Abubakar
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the dynamics in the relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Nigeria by utilizing monthly data spanning January 1986 to June 2018. It specifically determines asymmetries in the relationship between oil price and exchange rate and the effect of oil price shocks on exchange rate. Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models were employed for the analysis. Findings of TAR and MTAR models confirm the absence of asymmetric cointegration, hence leading to the conclusion that in the case of Nigeria, there are no asymmetries in the relationship between oil price …
Modeling Volatility Persistence And Asymmetry With Exogenous Breaks In The Nigerian Stock Returns, David A. Kuhe
Modeling Volatility Persistence And Asymmetry With Exogenous Breaks In The Nigerian Stock Returns, David A. Kuhe
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the volatility persistence and asymmetry with exogenous breaks in Nigerian stock market. The study utilizes daily closing quotations of stock prices from the Nigerian stock exchange for the period 3rd July, 1999 to 12th June, 2017. Standard symmetric GARCH (1,1), asymmetric EGARCH (1,1) and GJR-GARCH (1,1) models with and without structural breaks were employed to measure shocks persistence and leverage effects in the presence of varying distributional assumptions. The empirical findings showed high persistence of shocks in the return series for the estimated models. However, the study found significant reduction in shocks persistence when structural breaks were …
Determinants Of Fdi And Fpi Volatility: An E-Garch Approach, Philip I. Nwosa, Omolade Adeleke
Determinants Of Fdi And Fpi Volatility: An E-Garch Approach, Philip I. Nwosa, Omolade Adeleke
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) volatility in Nigeria. The study used annual data covering the periods 1986 to 2016 and the EGARCH approach was employed. The study observed that trade openness and world GDP were the significant determinants of FDI volatility, while domestic interest rate and stock market capitalization were significant determinants of FPI volatility in Nigeria. Other variables were insignificant in influencing volatility in FDI and FPI. Consequently, the study recommends the need for the prudent management of these determinants (with particular reference to indigenous variables) to ensure reduced …
Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar
Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the effect of fiscal policy shocks on output and unemployment in Nigeria under the Keynesian framework by employing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology to analyse annual series on the relevant variables for the period 1981-2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root result shows all variables to be integrated of order one and Johansen Cointegration test confirms the presence of long run association among the variables. Findings of the SVAR model shows shock in public expenditure as having a positive long- lasting effect on output. Revenue shock was found to exert a positive effect (lower …
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted in 2014 to determine the 2013 stock of foreign assets/liabilities of Nigerian enterprises, as well as receiving sectors and origination/destination regions. The survey collected relevant information from 740 enterprises, and analysis of survey returns indicated that the total private foreign liabilities as at end-2013 was N12, 639.27 billion up by 5.08 per cent above its level in 2012. Of this total, 96.7 per cent was in the form of foreign direct investments, while foreign portfolio investments and other capital flows accounted for 0.4 and 2.9 per cent, …
Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette
Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper discusses some technical issues in Balance of Payment compilation and analysis. It summarized major components of the BOP statistics, the various account balances as well as the interrelationship between them and other macroeconomic aggregates. It goes further to discuss data related issues in the compilation of Nigeria’s BOP statistics with the aim of providing better insight to future/new compilers, policy and other economic analysts.
Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja
Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
There is a widespread belief that fiscal decentralization is an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of public expenditures. Decentralization is expected to boost accountability and transparency in the provision of public goods for the well-being of the society. However, countervailing views maintain that little or no impact has been created at the periphery in terms of improving the welfare of the people in Nigeria. The main objective of this paper was to investigate how the decentralized system of expenditure impacted on human resource development in Nigeria. Using ARDL/Bounds Testing approach and data for the period 1980 to 2012, the …
Nexus Of Exchange Rate Deregulation And Agricultural Share Of Gross Domestic Product In Nigeria, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Falola Abraham, Grace Z. Rekwot
Nexus Of Exchange Rate Deregulation And Agricultural Share Of Gross Domestic Product In Nigeria, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Falola Abraham, Grace Z. Rekwot
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The kernel of this study was to examine the causal relationship between exchange rate deregulation and the agricultural share of gross domestic product in Nigeria from an econometric perspective using time series data spanning a period of 26 years (1986 – 2011). Data on exchange rate and gross domestic product were analysed using augmented dickey fuller unit root test, unrestricted vector autoregression, pairwise granger causality and vector error correction model. The results showed the existence of unidirectional causality from exchange rate to agricultural share of gross domestic production and also, exchange rate deregulation had negative influence on agricultural share of …
Modeling And Forecasting Currency In Circulation For Liquidity Management In Nigeria, Alvan Ikoku
Modeling And Forecasting Currency In Circulation For Liquidity Management In Nigeria, Alvan Ikoku
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper presents forecasts of currency in circulation prepared for liquidity management at the Central Bank of Nigeria. Forecasts were produced using ARIMA, ARIMA with structural variables, VAR and VEC models. The performance of the forecasts was then evaluated under a rolling forecast scenario, where the estimation sample is augmented by one observation and the forecast sample is brought forward. The evaluation of the forecasts was based on average performance over a number of rolling forecasts. We found that the most accurate models were mixed models with structural as well as ARIMA components, augmented by seasonal and dummy variables. We …
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2012, Sani I. Doguwa, Mohammed M, Tumala, Isaiah Olufemi Ajibola
Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2012, Sani I. Doguwa, Mohammed M, Tumala, Isaiah Olufemi Ajibola
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The 2013 survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted to determine destination sectors of foreign private capital flows and economies where such investments originate. The survey covered 649 large establishments in Nigeria with 87.4 per cent response rate. The cross border transactions/investments of the respondents during 2011 and 2012 indicate total foreign claims on the Nigerian economy as at end 2012 rising to N16, 790.78 billion from N13, 647.19 billion recorded in 2011. Of this total, 98.1per cent came in the form of direct investments, while portfolio investments and other capital flows accounted for 1.1 …
Quality Statistics In Banking Reforms For National Transformation, Sarah O. Alade
Quality Statistics In Banking Reforms For National Transformation, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper outlines the important role of statistics in aiding proper planning and achievement of sustainable economic development. The paper elaborates the importance of investing in quality and reliable statistics for policy design and implementation and stresses the vital role statistical information play in effective operation in both private and public sector in every economy. The role of quality, reliable and timely information to a well-functioning financial system and as a guide to monetary policy making is illustrated in the paper. The paper credits accurate statistical information to the success of the Nigerian banking sector reform. However, it suggests that …
Effects Of Global Climate Change On Nigerian Agriculture: An Empirical Analysis, Apata T. .G
Effects Of Global Climate Change On Nigerian Agriculture: An Empirical Analysis, Apata T. .G
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects of global warming on Nigerian agriculture and estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change. Data used for this study are from both secondary and primary sources. The set of secondary sources of data helped to examine the coverage of the three scenarios (1971-1980; 1981-1990 and 1991-2000). The primary data set consists of 900 respondents’ but only 850 cases were useful. This study analyzed determinants of farm-level climate adaptation measures using a Multinomial choice and stochastic-simulation model to investigate the effects of rapid climatic change on grain production and the …
Is The Stock Market A Leading Indicator Of Economic Activity In Nigeria?, Alvan E. Ikoku
Is The Stock Market A Leading Indicator Of Economic Activity In Nigeria?, Alvan E. Ikoku
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In an effort to address the lacuna in leading indicator studies of African economies and Nigeria in particular, this paper examines the causal relationships among stock market prices, real GDP and the index of industrial production in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1984Q1 to 2008Q4. Granger causality tests indicate bidirectional causality between stock prices and GDP but no causality between stock prices and industrial production or between GDP and industrial production. Stock prices and GDP are found to be cointegrated, leading to the estimation of vector error correction models. Out-of-sample forecasts constructed with AR(1), ARIMA, structural ARIMA, and VEC models …